What Went Wrong with Former Twins Prospects Josh Winder and Yunior Severino?

[Cody Christie]

Earlier this week, the Twins announced multiple roster moves. Among them were the official departures of two players for whom there were once fairly high hopes, but who never did make substantial contributors to the big-league team.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

In a disappointing offseason for some of the Minnesota Twins' once-promising prospects, Josh Winder and Yunior Severino were removed from the 40-man roster earlier this week. Their paths from potential future impact players to being outrighted and released remind us of the tough realities of baseball development. These two players, who once showed potential to contribute in significant ways, faced setbacks that eventually led to their fading from the Twins’ long-term plans.

Josh Winder: The Starter Who Never Found His Stride
Once a solid starting pitching prospect in the Twins’ system, Winder showed flashes of brilliance in the minors. With a big arm, excellent pitch mix, and potential to carve out a role in the middle of the rotation, Winder’s path initially looked promising. In 2021, he impressed while posting a 2.63 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP in 72 innings in the upper minors. Injuries, however, became his constant companion. Shoulder issues, in particular, began to sideline him, stalling his development and pushing the Twins to consider alternative ways to keep him healthy and effective.

The team eventually moved Winder from a starting role into the bullpen. This was a similar path to the one that worked wonders for Cole Sands, who became one of the Twins' most reliable relievers last season. For Winder, though, the bullpen transition didn’t lead to the breakthrough the team hoped he would achieve. He allowed a .761 OPS as a starter and a .749 OPS as a reliever, with nearly identical strikeout rates. While Winder occasionally flashed the raw talent that once made him a prospect to watch, he struggled to consistently stay in the strike zone or execute his pitches with the precision required at the big-league level.

Ultimately, Winder’s combination of injuries and command issues made him a challenging fit for the Twins’ future bullpen plans. Although his talent was undeniable, the team had to make a tough decision, especially with younger pitchers emerging and others adapting more successfully to the bullpen role.

Yunior Severino: Power Potential That Couldn’t Keep Pace
Just a year ago, Severino was considered a potential power bat for the future. In 2023, he was among the most productive hitters in the Twins’ farm system. In 120 games, he hit .272/.352/.546 with 35 home runs, leading the minor leagues in home runs. His breakout performance forced the Twins’ hand to add him to the 40-man roster to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. But as 2024 rolled around, Severino’s promising power seemed to vanish.

Unlike Winder, Severino didn’t face a series of injuries. Instead, his performance declined, and his OPS dropped by 123 points. His swing, which had generated home runs at an impressive rate the previous year, looked overmatched against higher-level pitching in 2024. The International League, especially CHS Field, is very hitter-friendly, so his offensive decline was unexpected. Opposing pitchers exploited his tendency to chase, and his home run production evaporated as he struggled to find his timing and balance at the plate.

Given his quick fall from grace, the Twins faced a difficult decision with Severino. He was still young enough to turn things around, but with his struggles this past season, Minnesota opted to clear space on the 40-man roster. Severino chose to elect free agency instead of sticking in the organization as a minor-league depth option, signaling his intent to find a fresh start elsewhere.

For both Winder and Severino, the trajectory from promising prospect to 40-man roster castoff was swift and disappointing. Winder’s journey was hampered by health issues and an inability to adapt to a relief role, while Severino’s power surge was unsustainable. It’s not uncommon for highly-touted prospects to face unexpected setbacks, but these two cases emphasize the razor-thin margin between success and disappointment in MLB.

The Twins, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to strengthen their roster as they look to contend in 2025. For Winder and Severino, the next chapter remains uncertain, but both have shown enough in the past to attract attention from other teams. If they can stay healthy and rediscover their strengths, perhaps another organization will find a way to unlock the potential that once made them two of the more intriguing names in Minnesota’s system.

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Did the Twins make the correct decision with Winder and Severino? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

Seems neither has the talent it takes to reach MLB.  Players that are impressive in the minors but not good enough to play MLB far outnumber guys good enough to play MLB.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This simply shows how difficult it is to evaluate young players.  The sad truth is that most guys never make it in the majors, either because they don’t get there at all or because they are highly unsuccessful in a limited stint.  At the end of the day, you have to do the job and that job is extremely challenging.   Every single team has these “almost” guys who fail and Severino and Winder are just our latest examples.  

[DJL44]

Winder had shoulder injuries and struggled to pitch as well out of the stretch as he did with a windup. He was terrible at holding baserunners.

Severino has a decent enough bat, but his glove limited him to 1B/DH. If he could play 3B or 2B he'd still be in the system.

[ashbury]

Winder has reached and demonstrated his ceiling.  Severino, on the other hand, I have premonitions of Brent Rooker levels of regret - one down year on an otherwise upward progression doesn't close the book on him.

[Whitey333]

Most of these " can't miss" prospects do just that:  miss.  It can be kind of a crap shoot.  Maybe if the Twins drafted the right can't miss prospects the team would be OK.  Most of, notice I didn't say all Twins prospects are over rated and over hyped.  They do prove themselves by either not being good enough or injury prone or both.  Several on the Twins now need to show a lot in 2025.

[nicksaviking]

It's too bad, I was hopeful for both, but I'm not regretful about pulling the plug early as this team often pulls it too late. (Except for Joe Benson. DFA'd??? noooooooooo!)

Seemed like Winder had good velocity but his pitches didn't move enough. Major leaguers teed off on him, and even while racking up strikeouts in the minors, the pitches the batters didn't miss, got spanked.

As for Severino, I think he was a casualty of a culture change. At the end of the 2023 season it was clear the Twins needed to move away from the three true outcome players. As Ash said, he could pull a Brent Rooker, though even Rooker was kept around long enough to get included in a trade. Have to think other teams didn't value Severino too much or the Twins wouldn't have let him walk for nothing.

[Fatbat]

For every prospect that makes it, there are dozens of these guys that don’t. Sad truth. Professional sports is unforgiving to most humans.  They are both young enough to make some filler spot money in the minors but unlikely they will make the show and be solid role players. 
 

[ashbury]

53 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

As Ash said, he could pull a Brent Rooker, though even Rooker was kept around long enough to get included in a trade. Have to think other teams didn't value Severino too much or the Twins wouldn't have let him walk for nothing.

Rooker didn't achieve positive value for a major league team until his age-28 season.  When I refer to regret, I don't mean genuine loss, or that anybody made a mistake, just the feeling of what-might-have-been.  Roster rules prevent any team from comfortably waiting for a guy to make it big for a few years in his late 20s.  But Severino could bring a team some productive seasons as a DH, even taking into account that DH is a very challenging job to get and then keep.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Rooker didn't achieve positive value for a major league team until his age-28 season.  When I refer to regret, I don't mean genuine loss, or that anybody made a mistake, just the feeling of what-might-have-been.  Roster rules prevent any team from comfortably waiting for a guy to make it big for a few years in his late 20s.  But Severino could bring a team some productive seasons as a DH, even taking into account that DH is a very challenging job to get and then keep.

Brent Rooker was given one shot at achieving positive value for a major league team prior to his breakout with Oakland. 

His options were burned up with consistent .900 plus OPS in the minors. In 2021... He got 213 PA's in his first extended look with the Twins. 

In the 21/22 Off Season. He was included in the trade with the Padres to clear roster space.  

The Padres gave him 7 PA's... traded him to the Royals who gave him 21 PA's.

His minor league numbers remained .900 plus in 2022. 

He showed up in Oakland... Injuries gave him a job. He ran with it. 

In my opinion... The Twins, Padres and Royals all failed to assess what Rooker was capable of and as a result failed to provide opportunity. 

In 2022 the year that Rooker was handed over to the Padres... Celestino and Gordon both broke camp with the Twins so I assume they were both chosen over Rooker. Larnach, Cave, Garlick, Contreras were all needed before the year was up to fill space and all 4 of them were space filling non-producers.  

Assessment are tough moving targets... 40 man roster decisions are tough decisions because the margins can be thin. Therefore I don't fault the Twins, Padres and Royals for missing on Rooker... but yet I believe... that the Twins management chose Gordon and Celestino over Rooker due to 40 man pressure... So Yeah... Their Fault in the end. 

Oops   

 

[HerbieFan]

Prospects that miss...like Winder, are probably one motivator for why they draft the way they do now.  Draft a lot of darts, throw them all at a board and hope a couple hit.

[Rosterman]

It's not jsut 40-man roster, but also runnung out of options that doomed Rooker (and even guys like Sorrento before him). 

Yes, I wondered why Severino didn't get a call-up, to see how he handles himself for at least a dozen or so at bats and on a major league field. He still ahd youth on his side.

Both Severino and WInder I would've dangled in a package along with Kepler during the trade deadline, at best. But if people aren't knocking down your door for certain players, you get to make the "I give up" decision sooner rather than later.

Winder performed well at the major league level, but so did Henriquez. Is it worthwhile to give Winder a 40-man contract, or pick up someone similar on a minor league deal. Even on the lowest rungs of baseball, salary comes into question.

One question about Severino. Was he a total butcher on the field? Not worth playing at third or first. Strictly a DH? I would suspect a team likje Oakland or Tampa Bay would grab him for a couple more years of development.

 

[bean5302]

I think Winder has the stuff to be very good, but that shoulder has been a huge problem. It's tough looking at his performances in isolation and evaluating him as his shoulder cost him quite a bit of velo, and probably some command.

Severino never panned out defensively, and sure, you can look at the home runs in 2023 to get all excited, but his bat was AAA average. It was average again this year, but with long months of poor production mixed with like a single scorching month of performance. Severino is just a talent issue.

[jorgenswest]

The title makes it seem like the Twins failed here. If anything it indicates to me a plan to contend and use those 40 man spots on players more likely to contribute this year.

Winder outperformed his draft position. Only one pitcher drafted #214 has pitched in more games or has more career WAR. The reality is getting major league time and any positive production out of a player drafted in that range is the exception.

Severino was a 2B at 17 in the Braves organization. That is a red flag that it will be hard to find a position. No speed. No glove. You have to really hit and he couldn’t cut down the strikeouts. He may break out at 28 like Rooker but no team can or should keep a guy around that long to find out. The 40 spots and eventually major league roster spots are too valuable particularly for teams planning to contend. There aren’t bench spots for a back up 1B/DH.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Brent Rooker was given one shot at achieving positive value for a major league team prior to his breakout with Oakland. 

His options were burned up with consistent .900 plus OPS in the minors. In 2021... He got 213 PA's in his first extended look with the Twins. 

In the 21/22 Off Season. He was included in the trade with the Padres to clear roster space.  

The Padres gave him 7 PA's... traded him to the Royals who gave him 21 PA's.

His minor league numbers remained .900 plus in 2022. 

He showed up in Oakland... Injuries gave him a job. He ran with it. 

In my opinion... The Twins, Padres and Royals all failed to assess what Rooker was capable of and as a result failed to provide opportunity. 

In 2022 the year that Rooker was handed over to the Padres... Celestino and Gordon both broke camp with the Twins so I assume they were both chosen over Rooker. Larnach, Cave, Garlick, Contreras were all needed before the year was up to fill space and all 4 of them were space filling non-producers.  

Assessment are tough moving targets... 40 man roster decisions are tough decisions because the margins can be thin. Therefore I don't fault the Twins, Padres and Royals for missing on Rooker... but yet I believe... that the Twins management chose Gordon and Celestino over Rooker due to 40 man pressure... So Yeah... Their Fault in the end. 

Oops   

 

Not sure what KC was thinking, they stunk. But MN and SD were trying to win (not that I like the decisions all the way, but no one apparently thought Rooker was good, or he wouldn't have been in Oakland).

[Mike Sixel]

I admit to not liking the headline or article. Nothing went wrong. The vast majority of guys don't make the majors. Winder was a mid round pick, nothing went wrong. Severino was signed as a HS aged KID, nothing went wrong. But I get that writing it differently isn't click bait.....

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

...Severino was a 2B at 17 in the Braves organization. That is a red flag that it will be hard to find a position. No speed. No glove. You have to really hit and he couldn’t cut down the strikeouts. He may break out at 28 like Rooker...

No way. Rooker was on a totally different level, and it's just baffling why teams didn't see it.

Rooker didn't have glaring weaknesses against certain pitch types. He he great exit velocities, and consistently destroyed AAA pitching. Every place Rooker landed, his AAA stat line was always like wRC+ 140 or higher. He also started off in AA in his first full season after being drafted, finding his way to MLB in 2020 after being drafted in 2017. Take a guy who rapidly moves up, rakes at every level, crushes baseballs in his first exposure to MLB and never even give him 300 PA. Rooker's 2021 wasn't even bad! He was .219/.317/.425 OPS .742 wRC+ 106 in 183 PA after being called up in July after receiving a handful of sporadic playing time in April that year. 

Severino maxed out at league average in 2 seasons of AAA, and it took him 5 years to get to AA.

 

[Linus]

Getting to the show is really hard. I believe the number is 5-7% of all guys who play pro ball make the bigs. And they get weeded out at every level so good numbers at AAA doesn’t mean that much. I always push back against the idea of a “logjam”. Never happens because the can’t miss guys miss all the time. We are hearing it now with our starting pitching depth. I’m not trading anybody until Festa SWR Mathews et al prove they are major league starters. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not sure what KC was thinking, they stunk. But MN and SD were trying to win (not that I like the decisions all the way, but no one apparently thought Rooker was good, or he wouldn't have been in Oakland).

Not sure what the Twins thought of Rooker. Not sure what San Diego thought of Rooker when they acquired him in a trade. At the time of the trade it looked like Rooker was an addition to the deal to even out the 40 man roster space spots but who knows... maybe the Padres were insistent on Rooker being part of the deal instead of other options.  

We have an idea what the Padres thought of Rooker when they traded him to the Royals. They got him for a weak hitting 29 year old catcher that they kept stashed in AAA. That return sure looks like the Padres and Royals both didn't have a ton of value placed on him. 

Back to the Twins... Here's what I know. Celestino and Gordon were given roster spots out of spring training. Celestino could play CF... Gordon could play multiple positions. Kirilloff and Larnach were on the 40 to play corner OF. So my suspicion is that Rooker was a positional casualty. 

Just two years later... Kirilloff is out of baseball... Nick Gordon is a 29 year old free agent probably looking for a minor league deal after being DFA'd and unclaimed by the Marlins. Gilberto Celestino is a 25 year old free agent looking for a minor league deal after being released by the Cubs. 

Larnach might be alright... we will need him in 2025. Rooker hit 39 Home Runs for the A's last season. 

In terms of assessment... of projecting players into the future. It sure looks like they missed on Rooker. Will they miss on Severino or Winder. Time will tell. It will depend on if anybody provides the opportunity to be proven one way or the other. 

[Mike Sixel]

It's so tedious to second guess every decision. A team literally cannot keep every player. They can't. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's so tedious to second guess every decision. A team literally cannot keep every player. They can't. 

Agreed. The differences are slight. They are drawing hard lines between players who are a 6.6 out of 10 and 6.5 out of 10. It's nearly impossible for any front office to be avoid this sort of thing from happening.  

It's why I think keeping struggling players on expiring contracts is a big huge deal. Every Margot hanging around for the season just keeps it clogged up for players in AAA. Bad Today No tomorrow. 

Severino can go as far as I'm concerned. There was injury provided opportunity for him last season and the Twins elected not to use him. If Severino is going to amount to anything... It will have to be elsewhere. The Twins will not give him a chance. They might be right... They might be wrong. He will most likely disappear into the baseball wind.  

[Danchat]

9 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Yes, I wondered why Severino didn't get a call-up, to see how he handles himself for at least a dozen or so at bats and on a major league field. He still ahd youth on his side.

It goes to show that they didn't believe that much in Severino and possibly were dissuaded by his middling season at AAA. There were opportunities to call him up at several points. My guess is the front office had already decided to cut bait at some point mid-season, so a few dozen PAs wasn't going to change that decision.

[AceWrigley]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

Rooker didn't achieve positive value for a major league team until his age-28 season.

And, 3 teams later. Oakland picked him up on a waiver claim from Kansas City.

[jmlease1]

18 hours ago, Rosterman said:

One question about Severino. Was he a total butcher on the field? Not worth playing at third or first. Strictly a DH? I would suspect a team like Oakland or Tampa Bay would grab him for a couple more years of development.

He hadn't shown himself to be good anywhere in the field. Below average or worse everywhere they tried him. Just not a very good fielder, so he needs to hit to make it. The raw numbers in 2024 looked ok, but in the context of the high offense environment in Saint Paul...not so great. I had hopes of him as a 1B option for the Twins, but they clearly didn't think he could make a difference. With his high K numbers, lack of a defensive position, and relative struggles in AAA...not sure they were wrong here.

A team without a 40-man crunch should take a flier on him, but I can understand why the Twins cut him off the 40-man, and why he wanted to move on.

[stringer bell]

I'll admit that I was very wrong about Brent Rooker. He seemed to me to be the epitome of the all or nothing-at-all guy at the plate with no obvious defensive value. He's shown he can hit at the highest level and with a pitcher-friendly home ballpark.

That said, Yunior Severino is not Brent Rooker. He may develop into that type of player, or he may not, but he shares with Rooker being a high-strikeout guy who is a defensive liability.

It seems Josh Winder can't stay healthy and he doesn't have the upside of a Canterino or Brock Stewart. 

[Otaknam]

I think it is inaccurate to say that Severino’s power is unsustainable going forward.  It was not sustained this year, but with a fresh start he may again find his power stroke. Winder did show some promise, but always seemed to be injured as was pointed out. But pitchers can find new life and reinvent themselves by adding a new pitch, new arm slot, adding an uptick in their fastball, or finding a better role like Cole Sands did. Hope these guys keep chasing their dream and find success.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's so tedious to second guess every decision. A team literally cannot keep every player. They can't. 

If they keep Rooker then maybe they don't have room to add Willi Castro. Maybe Larnach gets cut instead. There are ripple effects. and you're always balancing winning now with winning later.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If they keep Rooker then maybe they don't have room to add Willi Castro. Maybe Larnach gets cut instead. There are ripple effects. and you're always balancing winning now with winning later.

Exactly. Worse players get cut. Their job is to evaluate talent, man. The signs on Rooker were clear as day as far as I'm concerned.

Btw, Rooker just put up a better season than any Twins player has put up in Falvey's career with the Twins excluding Brian Dozier's 6.0 WAR 2017 season. Rooker literally put up a 5.1 fWAR campaign. He was not a 6.5 out of 10. I wrote an article about Rooker before the Twins carelessly dismissed him comparing him to Larnach (who was much less projectable). Missing on a 5.0 WAR guy is not forgivable. It's an absolutely catastrophic failure. I do mean absolutely catastrophic. When the Twins kicked Rooker to the curb as a toss in to clear 40 man roster space, it sent a strong message to the rest of the league. The Twins don't see any talent in this guy, and they're the ones who drafted and developed him. The Twins destroyed Rooker's professional reputation, period. So it's not a huge wonder why the Padres and Royals weren't willing to have more faith.

The Twins never gave Rooker a chance. They had complete tunnel vision on their "hit tool" guys like Larnach and Kirilloff, both with obvious and serious flaws. Now Larnach has made himself a potential every day player by revamping his plate approach, but Kirilloff just retired because the writing was on the wall.

Stop defending the biggest screwup since David Ortiz.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins destroyed Rooker's professional reputation, period. So it's not a huge wonder why the Padres and Royals weren't willing to have more faith.

Not just the Padres and Royals - every team in baseball besides Oakland. Oakland only gave him a shot because they didn't have any better options than what everyone thought Rooker was at that time. Absolutely nobody thought Rooker would have a season like the one he just had, including Oakland. If you want to feel smarter than everyone else, go ahead. If you really feel confident you should be putting some money on your predictions.

Is TwinsDaily going to write a hundred articles mad at the Twins because they didn't add Adolis Garcia when he was available to any team in baseball? That's just as big of a miss but people (especially on this website) seem to focus much more on the players in the organization than the players outside of the organization. Loss aversion is real.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Not just the Padres and Royals - every team in baseball besides Oakland. Oakland only gave him a shot because they didn't have any better options than what everyone thought Rooker was at that time. Absolutely nobody thought Rooker would have a season like the one he just had, including Oakland. If you want to feel smarter than everyone else, go ahead. If you really feel confident you should be putting some money on your predictions.

Is TwinsDaily going to write a hundred articles mad at the Twins because they didn't add Adolis Garcia when he was available to any team in baseball? That's just as big of a miss but people (especially on this website) seem to focus much more on the players in the organization than the players outside of the organization. Loss aversion is real.

There is an enormous difference in the Padres and Royals compared to the Twins. Night and day. The Twins had 5 years of experience with Rooker, they drafted and developed him, and they evaluated him as MiLB roster filler or AAAA injury depth. That's a huge statement, and a big red flag to every other team in baseball. When guys hit age 27, the writing is on the wall. No team lets what the view as a quality prospect get to age 27 without giving them an extended shot because it's completely negligent.

Rooker might as well have been a guy with a conviction on his criminal record looking to get a job at a Fortune 500 company. The background check is going to torpedo him like 95% of the time based on reputation alone.