Willi Castro Presents an Offseason Planning Paradox for the Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Named on Tuesday as a Gold Glove finalist, Willi Castro has piled up plenty of accolades and achievements here in 2024. 

While the Twins have the ability to retain him next year, it's not necessarily a straightforward decision, and could create internal strife for an organization in flux, trying to figure out the right way forward.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Willi Castro had a really interesting season for the Twins. On the one hand, you can make a pretty reasonable argument he was the team's most valuable player (he finished seventh in our balloting). Castro led the Twins in games played and plate appearances, setting a new standard for defensive versatility by becoming the first player in major-league history to make 20-plus appearances at five different positions. His career-high 3.1 fWAR ranked third among Minnesota position players, behind Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Castro was an All-Star and was just nominated as one of three finalists for the AL Gold Glove for the UTL position.

On the other hand, the narrative around Castro's indispensable value took a major hit when he slumped badly in the second half as the team collapsed. He finished the season with a .717 OPS that was barely above average. And despite his recent Gold Glove nod, most who watched him would not rate Castro's defensive prowess at any of the positions he played as all that exceptional, much as the flexibility was appreciated.

A glance at Castro's Statcast profile portrays a player who was able to deliver value, but did very few things especially well. That includes running, where his sprint speed dropped from 82nd percentile in 2023 to 66th percentile in 2024 as his stolen base total was sliced in half (33 to 16). His known back issues over the course of the season may have contributed to this.

None of these factors take away from what was generally a successful and commendable season for Castro. But they might cast doubt on what he can produce moving forward, and that's a major concern for a front office navigating serious payroll challenges. Entering his third and final year of arbitration, Castro is projected by MLBTR for a $6.2 million salary in 2025.

I doubt the Twins would non-tender Castro, repeating the same Tigers mistake that brought him to Minnesota originally, but they could be very motivated to trade him and move his salary. While no one will quite replicate the versatility Willi brings to the table, there are some candidates internally to collectively backfill his role, including Austin Martin. 

You wonder how something like that would go over with manager Rocco Baldelli. I think it would be fair to describe Castro as Baldlli's safety blanket, and I don't mean that in a pejorative sense. Any manager would be keen on an athletic switch-hitter who is available to play every day, almost anywhere. For Baldelli, who loves making in-game moves and is constantly dealing with wavering availability from his players, Castro's flexibility and durability are especially appreciated.

 

The affinity is no secret. Baldelli called Castro personally two offseasons ago to try to persuade him to join the Twins. The manager speaks glowingly of the utilityman often, and clearly holds Castro in high esteem. It was a touching moment when Rocco personally informed the 27-year-old of his first All-Star selection.

“Every person in our clubhouse, no matter who they are -- pitcher, catcher, position player, coach, trainer -- no matter who you are, you look at and admire Willi Castro in a big way,” Baldelli said in July. “He plays the game with tremendous energy and passion. He's running all over the place all the time and making positive things happen for our team.”

 

If Derek Falvey and the front office set their mind to trading Castro this offseason, in the name of creating payroll flexibility to improve the team elsewhere, it probably won't go over very well with Rocco Baldelli. Maybe not with a lot of fans, either. But much like the possibility of trading Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan, it's the kind of uncomfortable decision Minnesota's decision-makers will need to weigh as they seek creative and meaningful ways to renovate the roster following a disastrous finish in 2024.

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[Trov]

I agree you do not non-tender him, but there is value in looking for trade for him.  There will be plenty of teams that would want him just because of his versatility.  That is also why the Twins would want to keep him.  When our lineup is healthy, he can play every position, and although not elite anywhere he is decent enough.  You can pinch hit just about anyone because Castro can move to fill whatever hole on defense there is.  

[Linus]

The notion that Martin can take Castros place is laughable. 

[JD-TWINS]

I do not see the value in ridding $6.2M to lose a back-up/starter at 5 different positions.

Castro isn’t some super hero and there are guys that can be rationalized as “able” to pick up his innings (spread over couple young guys) but they either lack in defense or offense by comparison. Again, he’s not fantastic by any means……..I just don’t see what he’s brining in trade value. We would get back some low level “prospect”.  If he could be packaged with another 1 or 2 guys, maybe the return makes sense.

Kiersey only bats LH - Martin only RH. Martin could use another 8-10Lbs of bulk/strength just to improve durability but that’s probably not in the cards. He is sub-par to Castro defensively.

If Lee showed more promise at the plate moving Castro could make sense. If Keaschall is expected to be available in early months (arm) then it may make sense. If Correa’s feet problems are actually behind him it may make sense. Can Buxton play CF regularly 115 games)?

Farmer will be gone and Julien is tenuous at the plate and on defense. Lewis is a coin flip for availability………..to me, Castro is inexpensive depth at 5 positions.

Castro - Correa - Lewis - Buxton - Vazquez - Wallner - Larnach are the 7 guys I see as part of the roster w/o question……….that leaves 6 other spots to be filled ……….Miranda - Kirilloff - Jeffers are probable……that leaves 3 spots to be filled…….I expect 2 of these will be minimum $$ guys………who might be the one FA Bat??

[Karbo]

I would offer him a 2-3 year deal with an avg. of around 5 mil per year, maybe with a couple of bonus targets thrown in. If that doesn't go, then tender, and sign him and look for a trade. I would hate to lose him, but with these salary limits I don't see much of a choice. 6 mil is just too much at this point, unless the ownership wakes up and realizes a winning team will draw better and thus be more likely to sell at a better price.

[DJL44]

The Twins need more players like Willi Castro - solid defender with speed on the bases. If they trade him, they will have zero players like Willi Castro and the biggest hole on the roster will be the need for players like Willi Castro.

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, Linus said:

The notion that Martin can take Castros place is laughable. 

This is true. They might as well say Yunior Severino can take his place or Diego Castillo or Aaron Sabato.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The ever-changing landscape of baseball is basically requiring teams to have flexible, multi-positional players.  His value in being defensively solid at basically 7 positions probably outweighs most of his limitations offensively.  Paying a player like this $5-6M a year is not a luxury, but a boon.

Lumping the Twins with the Marlins and Athletics as the type of team discussing moving a player like this due to financial limitations is a travesty.

[tony&rodney]

Castro is an easy decision to tender. A trade is possible if the return is worthwhile. We don't know what value other teams would see in Castro. Meanwhile, he is needed on the current Twins roster. However, a couple of moves by Falvey could reduce his value for the Twins and support trading him. In other words, it all depends on how proactive Falvey is towards building the 40 person roster for next season.

[FlyingFinn]

If we have to get rid of Castro for payroll reasons and go cheap, I think there is only one cheap replacement in the organization, Michael Helman (not Martin). He does everything Castro does, offensively and defensively. But there are two problems - he has done everything at AAA and not in MLB. Also, he seems to be injury prone. And I'm a Helman fan. It would be a big risk to go this route but it's a possibility.

[In My La Z boy]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Castro is an easy decision to tender. A trade is possible if the return is worthwhile. We don't know what value other teams would see in Castro. Meanwhile, he is needed on the current Twins roster. However, a couple of moves by Falvey could reduce his value for the Twins and support trading him. In other words, it all depends on how proactive Falvey is towards building the 40 person roster for next season.

How proactive do you think Falvey can be with an ownership transition ahead? I wonder if we will be in a holding pattern until something materializes? We will sell. We are on the low end of what it will cost to join this elite club of 30 owners. $1.5 Billion or so? And Pohlad's have decided they need the cash. This does set us up for Falvey and Rocco to be highly motivated next year with each on their last contract year trying to impress new ownership. I just worry we're stuck on any deals for now?

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

If we have to get rid of Castro for payroll reasons and go cheap, I think there is only one cheap replacement in the organization, Michael Helman (not Martin). He does everything Castro does, offensively and defensively. But there are two problems - he has done everything at AAA and not in MLB. Also, he seems to be injury prone. And I'm a Helman fan. It would be a big risk to go this route but it's a possibility.

This accurate statement is a good argument for why Falvey needs to make some changes to the roster. As it is now, Castro is nearly the team MVP. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

How proactive do you think Falvey can be with an ownership transition ahead?

A new owner in the future should make Falvey more active in seeking opportunities to improve the roster. Another 2024 may result in Falvey's exit from baseball. Who knows though. I thought last offseason provided possibilities.

While unlimited money allows for numerous mistakes, it is fair to say that identifying talent still can fill out a roster. $125-135 million is plenty to put together a strong roster.

[D.C Twins]

The Twins have many challenges ahead of them, but paying Castro 6.2 mil should absolutely NOT be one of them. 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I do not see the value in ridding $6.2M to lose a back-up/starter at 5 different positions.

Castro isn’t some super hero and there are guys that can be rationalized as “able” to pick up his innings (spread over couple young guys) but they either lack in defense or offense by comparison. Again, he’s not fantastic by any means……..I just don’t see what he’s brining in trade value. We would get back some low level “prospect”.  If he could be packaged with another 1 or 2 guys, maybe the return makes sense.

Kiersey only bats LH - Martin only RH. Martin could use another 8-10Lbs of bulk/strength just to improve durability but that’s probably not in the cards. He is sub-par to Castro defensively.

If Lee showed more promise at the plate moving Castro could make sense. If Keaschall is expected to be available in early months (arm) then it may make sense. If Correa’s feet problems are actually behind him it may make sense. Can Buxton play CF regularly 115 games)?

Farmer will be gone and Julien is tenuous at the plate and on defense. Lewis is a coin flip for availability………..to me, Castro is inexpensive depth at 5 positions.

Castro - Correa - Lewis - Buxton - Vazquez - Wallner - Larnach are the 7 guys I see as part of the roster w/o question……….that leaves 6 other spots to be filled ……….Miranda - Kirilloff - Jeffers are probable……that leaves 3 spots to be filled…….I expect 2 of these will be minimum $$ guys………who might be the one FA Bat??

Polanco get resigned?  He has IF positional flexibility and will cost less as I don’t think Seattle picks up his option.  That is the only way I see the Twins dealing Castro.  I can see the Twins signing him to a 3 year contract too 9, 10, then 11 million over three years.  Castro could be worth a little more maybe 3 year 36-39 million but not more than that.  But I think the odds are less the 20% we trade him and that guestimate feels high to me.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would offer him a 2-3 year deal with an avg. of around 5 mil per year, maybe with a couple of bonus targets thrown in. If that doesn't go, then tender, and sign him and look for a trade. I would hate to lose him, but with these salary limits I don't see much of a choice. 6 mil is just too much at this point, unless the ownership wakes up and realizes a winning team will draw better and thus be more likely to sell at a better price.

I cannot possibly fathom why Castro would take that deal. The Twins might be able to lock him up at $5MM next year, and $12MM for the two years after that... maybe.

He's projected to make $6.2MM in arbitration this year and he becomes a free agent in 2026 at age 29. Spotrac has his Market Value at 3yrs / $30MM. No way you can buy out a year or two of a29, a30 free agency for less than his current arbitration value.

The Twins will likely have to clear salary (Lopez or Ober or Ryan) in order to retain Castro. I do think they'll probably sign/trade Castro, but I thought they'd sign/trade Farmer last year. Teams across MLB will know Falvey will almost have to trade Castro because of payroll concerns, and they'll use that leverage. Falvey doesn't seem capable of applying reasonable value to his players in the trade market, and it's a definite concern of mine. If he overplays Castro the way I suspect he's overplayed guys like Kepler and Polanco in the past, the return might be pretty light as the 2025 season approaches and the payroll gets desperate.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

Polanco get resigned?  He has IF positional flexibility and will cost less as I don’t think Seattle picks up his option.  That is the only way I see the Twins dealing Castro.  I can see the Twins signing him to a 3 year contract too 9, 10, then 11 million over three years.  Castro could be worth a little more maybe 3 year 36-39 million but not more than that.  But I think the odds are less the 20% we trade him and that guestimate feels high to me.

Polanco is bad defensively, he had an awful year at the plate, and he's constantly hurt. His K rate has skyrocketed over the past few years as his contact and barrel rates have cratered, and he's now in his 30s. I'd give him a MiLB contract with an invite, sure, but anything beyond that just seems foolish. Inviting the Tim Anderson scenario.

[Brandon]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Polanco is bad defensively, he had an awful year at the plate, and he's constantly hurt. His K rate has skyrocketed over the past few years as his contact and barrel rates have cratered, and he's now in his 30s. I'd give him a MiLB contract with an invite, sure, but anything beyond that just seems foolish. Inviting the Tim Anderson scenario.

I’m more sure where he should be.  I just know he will likely be a free agent and can play 3B, 2B and a little SS and he is good enough with the bat.  He will also cost less 1-5 million contract. My guess is 3 million.  That has a chance of replacing Castro in the IF.  I just speculate that is an option.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I’m more sure where he should be.  I just know he will likely be a free agent and can play 3B, 2B and a little SS and he is good enough with the bat.  He will also cost less 1-5 million contract. My guess is 3 million.  That has a chance of replacing Castro in the IF.  I just speculate that is an option.

Polanco can barely play 2B now and his days at 3B and SS should be over.

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

The notion that Martin can take Castros place is laughable. 

Is it? I dunno. Willi Castro through age 25 in the majors: 87 OPS+. Austin Martin through age 25 in the majors: 89 OPS+. 

The idea that Castro would become what he has for the Twins probably seemed laughable when they acquired him. That's how baseball player development goes. Martin has some pretty comparable skills in a lot of ways. 

[The Great Hambino]

They need to keep Castro's versatility around if they're going to continue to platoon as much as they have.  Salary space can be carved out elsewhere if needed.

Among other things, I think moving him signifies a fundamental change in their platooning philosophy

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I cannot possibly fathom why Castro would take that deal. The Twins might be able to lock him up at $5MM next year, and $12MM for the two years after that... maybe.

He's projected to make $6.2MM in arbitration this year and he becomes a free agent in 2026 at age 29. Spotrac has his Market Value at 3yrs / $30MM. No way you can buy out a year or two of a29, a30 free agency for less than his current arbitration value.

I don't think it will take a market rate deal to get Castro extended but it's got to be closer to market rate than 3 years $15M. 6/8/9 with an 10M option / 1M buyout for the 4th season could be enough.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Is it? I dunno. Willi Castro through age 25 in the majors: 87 OPS+. Austin Martin through age 25 in the majors: 89 OPS+. 

The idea that Castro would become what he has for the Twins probably seemed laughable when they acquired him. That's how baseball player development goes. Martin has some pretty comparable skills in a lot of ways. 

Willi Castro is a much, much better defensive player than Austin Martin. Martin is a bad outfielder and a bad second baseman.

[Reptevia]

He was the Twin’s MVP. Not really close. He outplayed his contract. He outplayed a $6.2M contract. Sign him for 2-3 years. 

[Nick Nelson]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Willi Castro is a much, much better defensive player than Austin Martin. Martin is a bad outfielder and a bad second baseman.

He was in his first smattering of games in the major leagues. I feel like Willi Castro is a good example of why we shouldn't draw definitive conclusions from such a sample?

[thelanges5]

Are we talking about team MVP Willi Castro? Find a way to keep him around. 

 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He was in his first smattering of games in the major leagues. I feel like Willi Castro is a good example of why we shouldn't draw definitive conclusions from such a sample?

Defense tends to peak younger than offense. Martin is 26 next season. Martin does not have the arm to play 3B or SS which means he will never duplicate Castro's performance at those positions. He has had a lot of reps at 2B and is still pretty bad. I doubt he will improve much at 2B.

He has the speed to play LF/CF but has had fewer reps at those positions. The big problem with his performance in the outfield is his reaction to the ball off the bat is the worst in the league. A few thousand reps taking fly balls should be able to improve that but he's not likely to be good.

If Martin's development in the field and at the plate progress at the rate you would expect then he could be a platoon LF next season with Larnach. That's a long way from replacing Willi Castro. It would take a mix of Martin, Keirsey and Lee to replace Castro. That's 3 roster spots to do what Castro does.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

He was in his first smattering of games in the major leagues. I feel like Willi Castro is a good example of why we shouldn't draw definitive conclusions from such a sample?

Martin didn't debut until age 25, by age 25 Castro had over 600 plate appearances, Martin will be 26 in March and will have 257 pate appearances. In what world do people compare minor league players to major league players?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Willi Castro is a much, much better defensive player than Austin Martin. Martin is a bad outfielder and a bad second baseman.

Willi Castro has been brutal in CF throughout his entire career, but average-ish at 2B, grading out quite well at 3B.
Martin was certainly awful in CF last year, though he was one of the best 2B in the International league in 2023. Martin's arm probably prevents him from being a good option at 3B.

Honestly, I don't expect much difference between the two defensively. Castro's bat is good enough to be a starter, though. Martin's is not.

[Guest]

Castro played 158 games last season. His production may have been better if some of the big names had shown up and played their fair share of games.