Willi Castro Presents an Offseason Planning Paradox for the Twins

[nicksaviking]

If we're making roster decisions based off of stats from the second half of 2024, we're going to need 26 new ballplayers.

[TheLeviathan]

We shouldn't be looking at this as Castro or Martin, but more in terms of how we can add more guys like them to our lineup.  

And let them run!

[Linus]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Is it? I dunno. Willi Castro through age 25 in the majors: 87 OPS+. Austin Martin through age 25 in the majors: 89 OPS+. 

The idea that Castro would become what he has for the Twins probably seemed laughable when they acquired him. That's how baseball player development goes. Martin has some pretty comparable skills in a lot of ways. 

The biggest difference in the field which is important for a utility guy IMO. Castro is plus at 3 positions and passable at SS and CF. Martin is pretty bad anywhere you play him. 

[rv78]

I think it's pretty comical that a team in this day and age, would struggle to find $6.2M to keep their MVP. I've said it before......... Over-paying for superduds (Correa and Buxton) that play part-time will cost you in more ways than one. The fact that anyone is trying to justify rostering Castro, is even remotely a problem, is a perfect example of the situation they have gotten themselves into. Or to put it another way, if Correa and Buxton would be able to do their jobs for an entire season you wouldn't need a super-sub like Castro in the first place. Then you'd only need that sub for 2nd and 3rd base, which aren't premium defensive positions that are hard to fill like SS and CF. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

The biggest difference in the field which is important for a utility guy IMO. Castro is plus at 3 positions and passable at SS and CF. Martin is pretty bad anywhere you play him. 

Career for Castro
2B - UZR/150 = -4.5, OAA +4,
3B - UZR/150 = +5.3, OAA +2
SS - UZR/150 = -6.5, OAA -3
CF - UZR/150 = -12.1, OAA -4

2024 for Castro
2B - UZR/150 =-0.8, OAA = 0
3B - UZR/150 = +5.2, OAA +1
SS - UZR/150 = -9.5, OAA +3
CF - UZR/150 = -5.9, OAA -3

Castro's only position where I'd consider him a plus at all is 3B. He's probably average at 2B and a big liability at SS/CF. He certainly failed the eye test at SS and CF for me this past year as well.

[old nurse]

It will be interesting to see if there are any changes in direction on trades with Levine gone. With the guaranteed contracts totaling almost 100 million, and with 13-14 arb eligible players something is going to have to give. Maybe the new GM will not have a fondness for oft injured pitchers 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Maybe the new GM will not have a fondness for oft injured pitchers 

There will not be a new GM, Falvey is our guy, although he was the last few years too.

[stringer bell]

I thought Willi should have been considered for a utility GG last year. He was very good at third and above average in left field and adequate in center in my estimation. This year, he spent more time at second (he was okay), short and center (stretched in those positions). I think/hope that he was slowed by a nagging injury in 2024 and he might be able to bounce back as a force on the bases in 2025. 

I agree that he provides starter level depth at five positions. He is still youngish and provides needed speed (even at 66 percentile sprint speed). I'm not sure he is a real candidate for extension, but he figures to be worth much more than the projected $6M+ that he will be due in 2025.

[Doctor Wu]

Castro may never make another All-Star team, but his versatility is HUGE for the Twins. I mean this guy is the ULTRA utility guy, and that is very valuable, even when he's not batting well. Even at his relatively higher salary I think he's still a bargain, and I doubt trading him would get the Twins anything close to reciprocal value. Keep him. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would offer him a 2-3 year deal with an avg. of around 5 mil per year, maybe with a couple of bonus targets thrown in. If that doesn't go, then tender, and sign him and look for a trade. I would hate to lose him, but with these salary limits I don't see much of a choice. 6 mil is just too much at this point, unless the ownership wakes up and realizes a winning team will draw better and thus be more likely to sell at a better price.

I can’t imagine that a $5M salary with bonus structure is a big help to payroll v. a probable $6.25M arbitration settlement…..certainly not enough $$ to lose flexibility & competence on the roster.

I’d sign him and if somebody comes calling with a prospect of real interest - then maybe move him. I do have very little confidence in trading a middling roster guy for a prospect that may or may not develop into a middling roster guy.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, rv78 said:

I think it's pretty comical that a team in this day and age, would struggle to find $6.2M to keep their MVP. I've said it before......... Over-paying for superduds (Correa and Buxton) that play part-time will cost you in more ways than one. The fact that anyone is trying to justify rostering Castro, is even remotely a problem, is a perfect example of the situation they have gotten themselves into. Or to put it another way, if Correa and Buxton would be able to do their jobs for an entire season you wouldn't need a super-sub like Castro in the first place. Then you'd only need that sub for 2nd and 3rd base, which aren't premium defensive positions that are hard to fill like SS and CF. 

He finished 7th in TD’s MVP analysis. His OPS was .717……he was 3rd in WAR in ‘24 right behind the 2 superduds.

I completely agree though that he should be signed with the current potential void at 2B and the tenuous anchors in CF & 3B. $6.25M is not a salary that’s excessive for a guy that can competently play 5 positions and help in a big way offensively a dozen times or more per year.

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, Linus said:

Martin is pretty bad anywhere you play him.

A lot of people seem down on Martin. He seems like a work in progress, but I still think he can be an MLB regular. Where do you think is the best position for him?

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

We shouldn't be looking at this as Castro or Martin, but more in terms of how we can add more guys like them to our lineup.  

And let them run!

More running and stealing bases, please!

[LambchoP]

If you're contemplating trading one of your most important players to get six million off the books, wow, it's just sad. I get that Willi's not some super star, but he played almost every single day, and played hard and with intensity. Who takes over his 150 games if he's gone? Martin? Helman? Eeles or Keaschal are the only two with promise, but neither has a single MLB at bat. I'd hate to lose Willi. We need more guys who play with heart energy and passion, not less.

[Doctor Gast]

20 hours ago, Reptevia said:

He was the Twin’s MVP. Not really close. He outplayed his contract. He outplayed a $6.2M contract. Sign him for 2-3 years. 

Many underrate the utility position. LAD is really the only one that correctly values that position. Castro is a super utility player which means he's very athletic & can play SS & CF very well that means he can play anywhere except maybe catcher & SP. That brings extreme depth to all positions which is very valuable. No one can take his place; not Buxton, not Correa, not Lopez, not Jax. 

He outplayed his contract & he outplayed his position. A utility player is not supposed to lead the team in games started but Castro did so astoundingly more than the MVP candidates that were ranked higher by TD. He was stretched beyond the limits he should have played, especially at SS & CF. His efforts helped keep MN respectable. With his flexibility, durability & production, IMO deserves to be the team MVP.

Martin, a rookie sparkplug who hardly played CF before was abused by the Twins. His time in CF should have been limited but his athleticism proved to be better than anyone else at subbing for Buxton. Martin should have been handled with kit gloves but that was given to veteran Margot, who was used extensively to face LHPs (start & PH). Being overburdened can quickly drain the spark (which the Twins desperately need) out of anyone. With Margot gone, Martin can assume his rightful spot & (LHH) Keirsey can assume his rightful spot (that Martin played) & expect good things from them.

With all that said, Martin still can't take Castro's place. Trading Castro would produce another big hole by FO that can't be filled internally & be more expensive to do so externally plus taking a hit chemistry-wise. The answer to our problem isn't FA, it's trading responsibly to fill holes & with any extra money, extend our needed players. The problem is that Castro should have been extended last season, now that he's meeting his expectations he'll be much more expensive.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

A lot of people seem down on Martin. He seems like a work in progress, but I still think he can be an MLB regular. Where do you think is the best position for him?

I should have written my post differently. I’m not saying Martin can’t be a contributor but the premise was he could replace Martin this year which is the part I described as laughable. To answer your question I’m not sure he has a “best” position. With a bunch of reps he could be average in LF and a stop gap in CF. 

[David Maro]

The biggest problem is the remaining payroll.They have 50+% going to 3 players.They now have to do one of 2 things,increase the payroll or trade players.If you give Castro the 6.2 million that is almost 10% of the remaining payroll.So basically you now have to fill 22 roster spots with the remaining 40% which is going to be hard to do.This team would have a hard time competing in the much improved division.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

A lot of people seem down on Martin. He seems like a work in progress, but I still think he can be an MLB regular. Where do you think is the best position for him?

Left field.  

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

A lot of people seem down on Martin. He seems like a work in progress, but I still think he can be an MLB regular. Where do you think is the best position for him?

Martin is a 2B, if he's going to be a starter.

He's going to be defensively limited with a mediocre arm and fringe range in CF, his arm isn't ideal for SS/3B (think Polanco). His bat doesn't play in a corner OF/1B/DH role.

[Finlander]

This shouldn't even be a debate. Besides his defensive versatility and his All Star nod, Castro (despite his ailing back) led the team in triples, stolen bases, and doubles. I imagine he'll improve with a healthy back. Sign the man. Trade Vasquez and eat half of his salary, pay most of Castro's cost with the savings. Having two starter caliber catchers is an unnecessary luxury anyway, given the problems with the pitching staff. Almost seems like lipstick on a pig. We need Castro much more than a zero hitting $10M second catcher.

[karcherd]

Castro was the only the MVP because somebody had to be, I personally would have preferred Ober or Ryan before he got hurt.  Castro only led us in any hitting categories because he had more than 150 AB's more than anyone else other than Santana.  His best two positions are 2B and LF, any other position he plays should only be as a game by game fill in or defensive replacement for a pinch hitter.  Our goal should be to have quality players at all positions, reasonably 5 or 6 positions as a minimum.  Then you can use a player like Castro properly, fill in for days off 3 or 4 days a week, pinch run and give flexibility for pinch hitting moves at the end of the game.  Only the Twins obsession with match ups for every AB makes a player like Castro appear more valuable then they are. You are not going to win consistently with a player like Castro leading your team in AB's.

[sun]

Spotrac estimates Castro is worth $6.8 mil next season.  I think the Twins will keep him around for next year but won't be able to sign him to an extension. He'll fly the coop & become a FA journeyman if he needs to. I doubt that he'll get the deal that he wants to sign an extension. I'm not so sure that the Twins should lock him in with an extension either. It could impact their payroll flexibility. There shouldn't be a rush to sign him to an extension. His batting average wasn't that high & he's replaceable. I doubt that the Twins want to add higher costs than necessary to continue covering for injury prone players at SS, 3B & CF. The Twins won't want to pay him $30 mil more when the team is up for sale. They didn't even want to pay Polanco $10 mil. Maybe something will change once he hits FA or if he has a super season next year.

[stringer bell]

I agree that Castro and the Twins would be best served if he played less and was available to be a defensive replacement and pinch runner on more occasions. BBRef had his WAR at 2.6 in '23 when he was used less and used more in his better defensive positions. I realize injury might have contributed to his second half fade, but also there should be other better options more of the time. 

Castro is an asset and he has outplayed his contract for two consecutive years. Fine tuning his usage could make him more valuable. 

[Finlander]

Isn't the fact that Castro had over 150 ABs more than anyone on the team besides Santana an indication of his value? No, he's not a regular, or an All-Star player, or someone to build around, obviously. But he reminds me a bit of Cesar Tovar role-wise, and that brings back good memories. Guess that's why I'd like to see the Twins bring him back for a year or two. Could be a nice deadline trade chip too when the young guys finally show that they're ready.

[Riverbrian]

I have a fun exercise for y'all. The Twins have consistently placed their position players into 4 buckets in the past two years, 

Bucket #1 (3 Players) - Left Handed Batters who need to be protected against left handed pitchers. This bucket has been the primary factor in the clubs lineup construction to the point that it's probably the primary factor in roster construction. Bucket #1 can't be denied or ignored. Bucket #1 is the Twins. 

Bucket #2 (3 Players) - Short side Right Handed Batters who need to face those left handed pitchers so left handers in Bucket #1 don't have to. You can't really have a bucket #1 without a bucket #2. 

Bucket #3 (2 Players) - Catchers

Bucket #4 (5 Players) - Players who play most every day. 

That's 13 players,

Here's the fun exercise part. Drop the players on the current roster into the proper bucket. Watch where Castro lands. 

After you do that and you realize that it's too much playing time for Castro. Try to reduce his playing time while also protecting the sanctity of bucket #1 and bucket #2. 

It won't take long to realize that Castro will lead the Twins in AB's again in 2025. 

 

 

[old nurse]

On 10/16/2024 at 7:05 PM, tony&rodney said:

There will not be a new GM, Falvey is our guy, although he was the last few years too.

Yup, Falvey did everything, that is why there are 6 vice presidents and over 50 other assistants, directors, and other titles as well listed under him in baseball operations 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I have a fun exercise for y'all. The Twins have consistently placed their position players into 4 buckets in the past two years, 

Bucket #1 (3 Players) - Left Handed Batters who need to be protected against left handed pitchers. This bucket has been the primary factor in the clubs lineup construction to the point that it's probably the primary factor in roster construction. Bucket #1 can't be denied or ignored. Bucket #1 is the Twins. 

Bucket #2 (3 Players) - Short side Right Handed Batters who need to face those left handed pitchers so left handers in Bucket #1 don't have to. You can't really have a bucket #1 without a bucket #2. 

Bucket #3 (2 Players) - Catchers

Bucket #4 (5 Players) - Players who play most every day. 

That's 13 players,

Here's the fun exercise part. Drop the players on the current roster into the proper bucket. Watch where Castro lands. 

After you do that and you realize that it's too much playing time for Castro. Try to reduce his playing time while also protecting the sanctity of bucket #1 and bucket #2. 

It won't take long to realize that Castro will lead the Twins in AB's again in 2025. 

 

 

Probably a good summary of the Rocco years. Going into 2025, there will be Wallner, Larnach and perhaps Julien or Kirilloff  in Bucket #1. 

Bucket #2 would include Martin, Miranda, (maybe) and perhaps Helman (if you're drawing from the 40-man roster). 

Bucket #4 would be Correa, Lewis, Buxton and Castro. 

The key addition to move Willi into a hybrid of Bucket 1 and 2 would be the advancement and success of Brooks Lee. If Lee can validate his high draft and prospect status and become an everyday player, then Castro could move back to a platoon alternative, especially if mid season Miranda could also elevate himself to more than a part-time player. That's probably asking for too much, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

I don't know when or if Larnach or Wallner can move away from strict platooning as long as Baldelli is manager. My hope is that he modifies the plan in light of poor bench options from the right side if the Twins don't add someone with "lefty killer" cred.

Jenkins and Rodriguez are getting closer and I'd hate to see possible superstars bench 25% of the time because they hit left handed. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I have a fun exercise for y'all. The Twins have consistently placed their position players into 4 buckets in the past two years, 

Bucket #1 (3 Players) - Left Handed Batters who need to be protected against left handed pitchers. This bucket has been the primary factor in the clubs lineup construction to the point that it's probably the primary factor in roster construction. Bucket #1 can't be denied or ignored. Bucket #1 is the Twins. 

Bucket #2 (3 Players) - Short side Right Handed Batters who need to face those left handed pitchers so left handers in Bucket #1 don't have to. You can't really have a bucket #1 without a bucket #2. 

Bucket #3 (2 Players) - Catchers

Bucket #4 (5 Players) - Players who play most every day. 

That's 13 players,

Here's the fun exercise part. Drop the players on the current roster into the proper bucket. Watch where Castro lands. 

After you do that and you realize that it's too much playing time for Castro. Try to reduce his playing time while also protecting the sanctity of bucket #1 and bucket #2. 

It won't take long to realize that Castro will lead the Twins in AB's again in 2025. 

 

 

You have a bucket list

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I agree that Castro and the Twins would be best served if he played less and was available to be a defensive replacement and pinch runner on more occasions. BBRef had his WAR at 2.6 in '23 when he was used less and used more in his better defensive positions. I realize injury might have contributed to his second half fade, but also there should be other better options more of the time. 

Castro is an asset and he has outplayed his contract for two consecutive years. Fine tuning his usage could make him more valuable. 

It would be awesome if the Twins had 9 players better than Willi Castro. They clearly don't.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Probably a good summary of the Rocco years. Going into 2025, there will be Wallner, Larnach and perhaps Julien or Kirilloff  in Bucket #1. 

Bucket #2 would include Martin, Miranda, (maybe) and perhaps Helman (if you're drawing from the 40-man roster). 

Bucket #4 would be Correa, Lewis, Buxton and Castro. 

The key addition to move Willi into a hybrid of Bucket 1 and 2 would be the advancement and success of Brooks Lee. If Lee can validate his high draft and prospect status and become an everyday player, then Castro could move back to a platoon alternative, especially if mid season Miranda could also elevate himself to more than a part-time player. That's probably asking for too much, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

I don't know when or if Larnach or Wallner can move away from strict platooning as long as Baldelli is manager. My hope is that he modifies the plan in light of poor bench options from the right side if the Twins don't add someone with "lefty killer" cred.

Jenkins and Rodriguez are getting closer and I'd hate to see possible superstars bench 25% of the time because they hit left handed. 

You see it perfectly. 

Lee as it stands is that 5th player in bucket 4 or else Miranda or Martin. If they don't acquire a bucket 4 worthy individual via acquisition. 

Bucket 4 is a big problem. 3 injury prone players at the top of the list. Brooks Lee who hasn't established himself yet... all we have is a fairly rough beginning and Willi Castro who plays a lot of positions... very valuable but basically average offensively. 

Bucket 4 is a problem and Castro's existence in bucket 4 is a problem. 

Bucket 2 is a problem because young developing players like Miranda and Martin are relegated to short side which is crappy for development. Also Miranda's splits suggest that he has been a better hitter against right handers. 

The Twins got some work to do this off-season in my opinion and how Castro is deployed could be a pivot point.