Has Thad Levine’s Time with the Twins Run Its Course?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have already announced that Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli will return for the 2025 season. So, will another front office member take the fall for the team’s disappointing finish?

Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

A little over a year ago, Thad Levine's name was buzzing around the baseball world. The Minnesota Twins general manager was reportedly a finalist for the Boston Red Sox's coveted president of baseball operations role. For Levine, this seemed like the next step in a career that had seen him rise from assistant GM in Texas to one of the most respected front-office executives in the league.

Under his and Derek Falvey’s leadership, the Twins had built a contender, producing division titles and fostering a culture of player development. However, the Red Sox ultimately chose Craig Breslow, a younger and less experienced candidate. That decision may have foreshadowed a troubling turn for Levine’s trajectory.

As the Twins wrap up a season below expectations, questions surrounding Levine's future have grown louder. Minnesota’s ownership has already said that Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli will return in 2025. However, it’s become increasingly clear that someone will need to take the fall for the disappointing results in 2024, and Levine, once a hot commodity, appears to be the likely candidate.

When Levine joined the Twins in 2016 alongside Falvey, the pair were touted as the dynamic duo that would finally bring Minnesota back into the conversation of perennial contenders. The front office duo quickly showed their impact, with the Twins reaching the postseason in 2017 and winning AL Central titles in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Under Levine’s guidance, Minnesota seemed primed for a sustained run of success. 

But beyond regular-season victories, the team has collapsed in two of the last three seasons. Minnesota made waves in 2022 by signing Carlos Correa, hoping the team could recover after a disastrous 2021 season. Instead, the team fell apart in the second half and finished 14 games out of first place. The 2024 season will be remembered as one of the worst collapses in team history, with Minnesota having over 90% playoff odds in early August. In a results-driven league, those collapses, combined with some lackluster offseasons, tarnished his reputation.

Minneapolis hosted the SABR Convention back in August, and Levine was one of the speakers. He answered one panel question by noting that Falvey is very value-focused, very disciplined, and very farsighted. Those traits are all a necessity for someone manning a president of baseball operations role. He went on to say that he saw himself as a bit more of the risk-taker--the one who could help make sure they weren't being too conservative. Losing that voice in the Twins’ front office could significantly alter the franchise’s direction. 

One of the most significant risks taken during Levine’s tenure was the 2022 trade deadline deals. The biggest swing (and miss) was a trade with Cincinnati, acquiring Tyler Mahle in exchange for top prospects Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar. Mahle, brought in to solidify the rotation, succumbed to injuries, providing little return on investment before leaving the Twins with a depleted farm system and no ace to show for it. 

At the same deadline, the Twins traded with the Orioles for All-Star closer Jorge López. Minnesota sent four pitchers to Baltimore in the deal, including Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Juan Nunez, and Juan Rojas. López struggled with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 58 innings with the Twins before he was traded to Miami for Dylan Floro. Cano has developed into a solid late-inning option, while Povich has started to establish himself at the big-league level. It’s a trade that undoubtedly hurt the Twins farm system. 

Levine can’t be blamed entirely for the failure of these trades because Falvey would have signed off on the moves. However, they were seen as aggressive at the time, which fits Levine’s self-identified traits. Other aggressive moves during the current regime have had varying levels of success. Signing Josh Donaldson was a failure, but the team found a way to dump the end of his contract. Trading Luis Arraez for Pablo López was a very aggressive move that has worked in the Twins’ favor. 

Levine’s missed opportunity in Boston was a significant blow. Not only did it highlight that a storied franchise like the Red Sox, one of the game's most prestigious jobs, had passed on him, but they chose a less experienced option in Craig Breslow. The decision may have signaled a shift in how baseball front offices are viewed with an emphasis on fresh ideas from someone with less front office experience. The Giants took a similar direction earlier this week by hiring former All-Star Buster Posey, who has no front office experience. 

The Twins' front office has operated under a collaborative model, meaning both Levine and Falvey have had their fingerprints on significant decisions. However, it's hard to ignore the whispers that someone is on the hot seat after another underwhelming campaign. Levine, in particular, might be the easier target. The optics seem poor with his missed promotion to Boston and the Twins' recent stumbles. 

Perhaps Levine will get another shot elsewhere—his track record, while not without blemishes, is still strong enough to draw interest from other teams. But as for Minnesota, a fresh voice might be what the organization needs as it looks to navigate the next phase of this competitive window. In the world of baseball, timing is everything, and unfortunately for Thad Levine, the clock may have run out in Minnesota.

Should the Twins move on from Levine? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Doctor Wu]

The biggest swing (and miss) was a trade with Cincinnati, acquiring Tyler Mahle in exchange for top prospects Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar. Mahle, brought in to solidify the rotation, succumbed to injuries, providing little return on investment before leaving the Twins with a depleted farm system and no ace to show for it. 

That ended up being a horrible trade, but I don't think it really did much to deplete our farm system. Possibly  a worse trade was the one with the Orioles that you also mentioned. Losing both Povich and Cano, and only getting about a half-season of an ineffective Lopez. Ouch! As for Levine ... I honestly don't have strong feelings either way. It seems like he and Falvey have improved our "pitching pipeline" in the minor leagues, but the results for the big league team remain mixed. 

[mikelink45]

It will be interesting if this is accurate. Lots of fall guys and very few of significance.  

[Whitey333]

I wouldn't be surprised if the move Lavine.  Falvey should go to but he won't.  We already have 4 hitting coaches sacrificed.  IMO I think they may be aren't sacrificing enough, at least so far.  It was interesting to hear that Joe Pohlad doubled down by saying cutting payroll and not making a deadline trade or two had nothing to do with the collapse.  Yea right!

[Finfineman]

The Twins were an Ace away from making the playoffs.  They would have beaten Houston.  That would have been at least six playoff revenue games they could have paid for that Ace.  Yet they cheaped out.  They played the PandL game instead of having the guts to lay it out there and take a chance.  The ownership wont take a chance even if its a close call.  They are who they are.

[chpettit19]

If this is their plan why hasn't he been removed already? The other 2 corners of the triangle of power have been locked in as staying and they're making personnel decisions on the people under Levine. If they were moving on from Levine why wouldn't they have fired him yesterday with everyone else and started their search for a new GM? If it's going to happen it should happen today.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

The biggest swing (and miss) was a trade with Cincinnati, acquiring Tyler Mahle in exchange for top prospects Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar. Mahle, brought in to solidify the rotation, succumbed to injuries, providing little return on investment before leaving the Twins with a depleted farm system and no ace to show for it. 

That ended up being a horrible trade, but I don't think it really did much to deplete our farm system. Possibly  a worse trade was the one with the Orioles that you also mentioned. Losing both Povich and Cano, and only getting about a half-season of an ineffective Lopez. Ouch! As for Levine ... I honestly don't have strong feelings either way. It seems like he and Falvey have improved our "pitching pipeline" in the minor leagues, but the results for the big league team remain mixed. 

Which half season was Lopez actually effective?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

That ended up being a horrible trade, but I don't think it really did much to deplete our farm system. Possibly  a worse trade was the one with the Orioles that you also mentioned. Losing both Povich and Cano, and only getting about a half-season of an ineffective Lopez. Ouch! As for Levine ... I honestly don't have strong feelings either way. It seems like he and Falvey have improved our "pitching pipeline" in the minor leagues, but the results for the big league team remain mixed. 

I don't think either of those trades depleted the farm system at all. Steer has been a nice player, nothing special and doesn't look like he will be anything more than tat. CES is another 24/25 year old player that hasn't proven to be a MLB player yet (I think the Twins have their fair share of those guys still here) Hajjar is 23 and was in high A this year.

I would do the Mahle type trade over for sure, with out a doubt, Did anybody think they Twins were getting an ACE type pitcher in him?

The Twins have had SO MANY prospects they could have traded and gotten something for since this FO has taken over and haven't I am not worried about losing a Povich or Steer. I am more worried about guys like Romero, Gonz, Gordon, Miranda, Julien, Larnach and others they didn't trade away when the value was high.

[CRF]

What does Levine actually do? For that matter...what does Falvey actually do? Does Falvey or Levine have the final say on trades/deals/contracts? The only one we seem to hear from is Falvey. Levine is pretty much in the background. Do we need both these guys anyway? Maybe Dave St Peter is actually the final word on EVERYTHING...and if that's the case, it pretty much explains the whole problem! We're toast! Hey, if Levine goes...no problem. If Falvey goes...no problem. If ownership goes...I'll rejoice!🤪

[saviking]

I was thinking it was time for someone to go. Actually, I was thinking someone's plural

[old nurse]

27 minutes ago, Finfineman said:

The Twins were an Ace away from making the playoffs.  They would have beaten Houston.  That would have been at least six playoff revenue games they could have paid for that Ace.  Yet they cheaped out.  They played the PandL game instead of having the guts to lay it out there and take a chance.  The ownership wont take a chance even if its a close call.  They are who they are.

The playoff money is divide by how far each team goes. To get a top of the line pitcher, a quality left hand reliever, and a rh bat OF that can pinch hit they would have probably needed more than to be a divisional round loser (about 5 million). Then there is the prospect capital. Having been fleeced twice at a trade deadline there would be difficult negotiations. 

[old nurse]

6 minutes ago, CRF said:

What does Levine actually do? For that matter...what does Falvey actually do? Does Falvey or Levine have the final say on trades/deals/contracts? The only one we seem to hear from is Falvey. Levine is pretty much in the background. Do we need both these guys anyway? Maybe Dave St Peter is actually the final word on EVERYTHING...and if that's the case, it pretty much explains the whole problem! We're toast! Hey, if Levine goes...no problem. If Falvey goes...no problem. If ownership goes...I'll rejoice!🤪

After 40 years of profits the Pohlads are not going anywhere 

[Mark G]

Interesting.  If true, the bottom half of the FO goes and the bottom half of the coaching staff goes, but the decision maker in the FO and the decision maker in the dugout stay.  On other planets they replace the decision makers, not the subordinates.  Time to beam me up Scottie.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ok, let's say they are looking for a new GM. 

What would people want in a GM? I'm assuming an internal promotion would be frowned upon by local fans (even if someone deserves a promotion) but would people want/need an external hire for this?

After internal/external, what type of focus would you want out of a new GM? Like, would you want the new gm to be more aggressive/less aggressive than Levine has been? 

[Doctor Gast]

Should we move on from Levine? Not necessarily. You hardly hear from Levine but the little I hear from him makes sense, but Falvey does the opposite. Falvey does what he wants, Levine has very little say in what he does. So I don't blame Levine at all with Falvey blunders. Since Falvey is resigned, Levine is of little use. So I expect that Levine will be another sacrificial lamb before Falvey's bad philosophies & inability to initiate necessary trades.

[USAFChief]

It struck me as ... ominous for Levine when the Twins announced that Falvey and Baldelli would be returning for 2025, but conspicuously didn't mention Levine.

My gut tells me he's gone.

 

What the impact will be, if he is indeed fired, who knows? I have no idea who does what in this FO 

[Blyleven2011]

49 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Should we move on from Levine? Not necessarily. You hardly hear from Levine but the little I hear from him makes sense, but Falvey does the opposite. Falvey does what he wants, Levine has very little say in what he does. So I don't blame Levine at all with Falvey blunders. Since Falvey is resigned, Levine is of little use. So I expect that Levine will be another sacrificial lamb before Falvey's bad philosophies & inability to initiate necessary trades.

I'd be surprised if they move on from Levine but it could happen  , this has always been a trio ( falvey , Levine and Rocco ),   falvey has given the green light on Rocco to remain  , the pohlads have given falvey the green light to remain , it's now up to falvey  to either dismiss Levine or retain him ...

The pohlads have always shown loyalty to their employees even when necessary changes should have been taken  , they wait to long for changes  ...

It's up to falvey to make the call for a front office change  , if I was to make a change in the front office  , the pohlads shoʻuld dismiss Dave St Peter  , he has been a detriment to the twins ownership  in my opinion  ...

[Lartwinfan]

Another flop trade was Ryan Pressley for Celestino and Alcala.   Especially because they had a shot at it all that year Pressley was great then and for several more years and that  team needed him, not a couple prospects   When you’ve got a shot at the World Series you don’t subtract    Good things have been done though too, like the minor league development. So I don’t know, it’s just that trade has always stuck in my craw

[mikelink45]

How about cuts in the analytics department?  

[S Bart]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

After 40 years of profits the Pohlads are not going anywhere 

 

Marge Schott and Charlie Finley were interesting characters who served as owners from days gone by. At least they were entertaining. The current Twins owner is dour and inept. I continue to be amazed that they have placed a family member, who has no successful business experience, to be in charge of the team.  Here is a young communications major who announced this weird payroll negative comment last year followed by not doing anything to promote the team via a TV deal. His interview with Gleeman at the end of the season was horrible and a mammoth downer.

Mr. Pohlad, show the fans you care and take positive steps to enhance the team (learn the business and view how other teams succeed). Losing a fan base equals lost profit. 

 

[Jeff K]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Should we move on from Levine? Not necessarily. You hardly hear from Levine but the little I hear from him makes sense, but Falvey does the opposite. Falvey does what he wants, Levine has very little say in what he does. So I don't blame Levine at all with Falvey blunders. Since Falvey is resigned, Levine is of little use. So I expect that Levine will be another sacrificial lamb before Falvey's bad philosophies & inability to initiate necessary trades.

I don't know if it's the GM's job, but I'd like someone to take away Baldelli's spreadsheets!  Actually, I'd rather take away Baldelli altogether, but that isn't on the table...

[mrcharlie]

2 hours ago, Finfineman said:

The Twins were an Ace away from making the playoffs.  They would have beaten Houston.  That would have been at least six playoff revenue games they could have paid for that Ace.  Yet they cheaped out.  They played the PandL game instead of having the guts to lay it out there and take a chance.  The ownership wont take a chance even if its a close call.  They are who they are.

Lopez is that ace.  He, like most on the roster, tired down the last few weeks.  The way the Twins played this last month they had no business or opportunity to make the playoffs.  

[S Bart]

It is interesting to note that three out of the four remaining AL playoff teams are from the Central Division? If somebody had told me via a crystal ball prediction last spring that three teams from this division would be in this situation and ask me to guess those teams, I would never have predicted that the Twins would be excluded.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

Lopez is that ace.  He, like most on the roster, tired down the last few weeks.  The way the Twins played this last month they had no business or opportunity to make the playoffs.  

I get the feeling you just really like Pablo Lopez or articles about him because the last few weeks is where Lopez salvaged a miserable season, not where he "tired down."

Looking at Lopez's performance and the Twins' collapse this season. The collapse is tied to the last 6 weeks of the season where Lopez made 8 starts. Quality Start 6.0+ IP, 3ER or fewer. QS2 = 5.0+ IP, ERA under 4.00.
Pre-collapse Lopez = 4.67 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 50% Quality Starts, 54% QS2
8/18-9/29  Lopez = 2.50 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.50 xFIP,  75% Quality Starts, 75% QS2%

Lopez ranked #87 in ERA in 2024 for the 156 starters with 70+ innings pitched.
Lopez ranked #47 in ERA in 2023 for the 150 starters with 70+ innings pitched.
Lopez ranked #74 in ERA in 2022 for the 153 starters with 70+ innings pitched.

The only season Lopez has looked like a potential ace in his entire career was his injury shortened 2021. Like Maeda's 2020.  I consider FIP stats for Lopez to be guidelines to compare his seasons rather than valuable in comparing him to other pitchers as he almost always significantly underperforms the FIP metrics.
 

[bean5302]

The more I think about it, the more I agree, Thad Levine is probably going to get the ax. So far as I can tell, Levine's job is to get coffee for Falvey and wash Falvey's car. That's the kind of person the Twins are letting go to correct this abomination of a season.

Get that laundry guy the hell out, too! Royce Lewis can't play with stains on his shirt, and everybody knows the infield grass stain was still there a little bit after the All Star Break!

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

It struck me as ... ominous for Levine when the Twins announced that Falvey and Baldelli would be returning for 2025, but conspicuously didn't mention Levine.

My gut tells me he's gone.

 

What the impact will be, if he is indeed fired, who knows? I have no idea who does what in this FO 

Not saying Levine was staying when saying the other two were basically says start packing.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

How about cuts in the analytics department?  

Their contribution seems to be go for the multi-run HR because absolutely nothing else matters forgetting they don't have HR hitters or juiced balls to hit.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

It struck me as ... ominous for Levine when the Twins announced that Falvey and Baldelli would be returning for 2025, but conspicuously didn't mention Levine.

My gut tells me he's gone.

 

What the impact will be, if he is indeed fired, who knows? I have no idea who does what in this FO 

Same, except I view a Levine departure as merely probable.  You're exactly right about not knowing how they divide the work.  If Falvey overruled Levine on something and insisted on negotiating with the Dodgers for Margot, for example, ditto the Polanco trade, then Falvey needs to fire himself.  If they have separation of duties and Falvey merely said, "you're the GM, execute those trades if you believe in them," then it's time for him to put aside loyalty and the fact they joined the organization as a tandem.

The delay may be due to letting Thad try and negotiate a landing spot in some other organization first, again as an act of loyaty - a deeper relationship exists than with Popkins for example.  I trust that they won't let that drag on too long.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Their contribution seems to be go for the multi-run HR because absolutely nothing else matters forgetting they don't have HR hitters or juiced balls to hit.

But they hit more solo homeruns than 3 run homers because they can't get anyone on base ...

[farmerguychris]

Why would he  WANT to stay in Minnesota?

Seems like ownership gave him the resources to do his job for the first few years, and then last year basically - changed their mind, and went back to the Carl Pohlad style of ownership with profits before winning.

Just like any other job, wouldn't you think he'd have to seriously consider other offers if the new team would do a better job of giving him the tools to be successful?