Core 4: Reranking the Minnesota Twins' Young Pitching Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Four young pitchers for the Twins are being thrust into more prominent roles due to injuries. How would these prospects rank if they were all still eligible for top prospect lists?

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins have cultivated a promising group of pitching prospects, each with unique strengths and developmental paths. Ranking them involves considering their present abilities and their potential to impact the major leagues in future years. Let's analyze David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Louie Varland, ranking them based on current performance and potential ceiling.

1. David Festa (Age: 24)
2024 Performance: Festa is perhaps the most intriguing arm among the Twins' prospects due to his raw stuff. He boasts a mid-to-upper 90s fastball with impressive movement, paired with a sharp slider and a developing changeup. His strikeout numbers in the upper level of the minors have been impressive, but he still needs to refine his command and secondary pitches to reach his full potential. Over his last four appearances, he has allowed four earned runs in 17 2/3 innings with a 64% strike rate. Festa’s upside is significant, and he has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation arm if he continues to develop. Out of this group, he has the highest ceiling, which puts him at the top of the list. 

2. Zebby Matthews (Age: 24)
2024 Performance: Matthews is a wild card in this group, especially after his meteoric rise through the Twins system this year. An eighth-round draft pick, he has exceeded expectations, quickly rising through the lower levels of the minors. Matthews has a mid-90s fastball, a solid slider, and a changeup that he uses effectively against left-handers. His pitchability and competitive nature have helped him succeed at each level he’s been at. Many viewed Matthews as a back-of-the-rotation starter or a long reliever at the major league level, but his performance changed that narrative this season. He is a top-100 prospect and has a chance to impact the team during the division race, while his rapid development makes him an intriguing prospect to watch

3. Simeon Woods Richardson (Age: 23)
2024 Performance: Woods Richardson has been a highly regarded prospect since his days in the Toronto Blue Jays system. After coming to Minnesota in the José Berríos trade, he has continued developing into a potential middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter. In 2023, Woods Richardson showed flashes of his potential and displayed the inconsistencies typical of young pitchers. He’s looked like a completely different pitcher this season by providing the Twins with over 100 innings of a 3.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. However, there are still questions about whether or not he can sustain this performance in the long term. For now, he is proving to be a reliable starter in the big leagues.

4. Louie Varland (Age: 26)
2024 Performance: Varland has served in multiple roles with the Twins, showcasing his ability to compete at the highest level. His most significant issues have been his propensity for allowing home runs (2.1 HR/9 over the last two seasons) and his inability to put away batters when he gets to two strikes. Varland has the tools to be a solid mid-rotation starter. While his ceiling may not be as high as some of the other prospects on this list, Varland still has an opportunity to impact the Twins’ rotation this season because of injuries to other players. His long-term role might be in the bullpen, but Minnesota has to be thankful that he can continue to be used as a starter this season. 

The Twins’ farm system is rich with pitching talent, and while Woods Richardson and Varland started the year closer to the majors, Festa and Matthews rose through the system. Each of these pitchers has the potential to contribute to the Twins' rotation in the coming years. For Twins fans, the future looks bright on the mound.

How would you rank these four players? Who has the highest ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Linus]

Varland is young?  Suddenly I feel better

[Werbellik]

Same as you ranked them but only the first three. Varland is needed in the bullpen. If the need eventually arises he can be ramped up quickly. I don't understand with the insistence of being a starter when he can acrue big league service time relieving. He certainly looks like a reliever to me.

[VikingTwinTwolf]

I agree with Webellik........Varland is BP guy.  He is typically fantastic for 2-3 innings.  He has All Star potential as a relief pitcher.  Apparently doesn't believe he's better there, so hopefully the change in mindset occurs or he gets traded.  

[arby58]

It's hard to call a 26 year old pitcher who's been in the major leagues for parts of three seasons a 'young pitching prospect.' If you want another 'up and comer' rather than an 'up and downer' what about Andrew Morris?

[My Wifes Twins]

He can still become a relief pitcher later in the season when rosters expand, we need him as a starter because we've already lost 2 to injury, One more goes down, where are we then if he isnt ready to pitch 5 innings?

3 of the 5 starters are already rookies, what happens when one of them loses the edge for a few weeks?

[mikelink45]

I would put Woods-Richardson first at this point - he has proven himself to be more than reliable.  Where would we be this season without him.  And I would then have Zebby second because I think he is making himself into something really special which leaves Festa third - and that is a sign of a really good group.  

Varland is the outlier.  Like other commentators I would see him in the BP which puts Morris as number four. 

[tony&rodney]

Hard to be anything but excited about the potential for solid starting pitching for the Twins going forward. The list (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Festa, Varland, Matthews, and Paddack) can grow when Morris and Culpepper are ready with Prielipp, Soto, Bohorquez, and Roque down the line still.

Woods Richardson has shown enough in 21 MLB starts to lead the list. His improved velocity and stuff this year are encouraging. Maintaining his current performance makes Simeon a really good #4 SP. 

Festa and Matthews still have to show that they can adapt within a game and pitch decently on days when their stuff is less than hoped. I think they will. Festa seems to have the edge on his stuff but results still count.

I would agree with those who believe in Andrew Morris because he has looked good whenever I watch him pitch.

Lastly, there is a reason the Twins still see Louie Varland as a starting pitcher. He is strong and has the pitches. Sequencing, command, and ability to forget the last pitch are areas where Varland can improve. Hard contact will happen to every pitcher (see Blyleven, Bert), but focus and ability to rebound with good pitches on most pitches creates outs. Varland may be moved into the bullpen again in late September but more performances where the line is 6 innings and 0-3 runs in his starts put the Twins in a solid position to win games. 

Yeah, Twins fans have reasons to feel good about the young starting pitching on August 17. 

 

[jmlease1]

I think SWR should be #2 on this list right now. Matthews might pass him, but performance counts and SWR has put up an ERA+ of 110 in MLB over 107 IP and that matters. Maybe he doesn't have as much upside...but he's getting the job done and it's not that small of a sample size any longer.

But really, this list should be longer and looked at where the next set are on the rankings as well: Morris, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, Culpepper. Let's look at the full next 10 prospect-type pitchers in the pipeline and see how they're landing for everyone as future rotation options.

[strumdatjag]

Add Morris to that group.  Even if two or three don’t pan out, the future looks bright.  

[roger]

I would flip Matthews and Festa.  Impressed the you know what out of me in his first start.  Understand, we need to see more.

[gman]

With 40 games left, that leaves 8 starts each for 5 pitchers. As I think there will be some days off for both Lopez and Ober coming up to get them playoff ready (I hope), that leaves roughly 5-8 starts each for the 4 guys mentioned. I also think SWR gets a couple games off.

Conclusion Festa, Varland, and Mathews have  multiple chances to prove who is readiest for next years rotation. Not sure how Paddock or Ryan fit in, unfortunately I am assuming IL for the rest of the year for those 2. Hopefully no one else.

[LambchoP]

Hard to not be hopeful about our young pitchers coming up. I'd put SWR on top based on the fact he's basically saved our rotation this year. He's put up good numbers and kept our team in the game constantly. Next I'd put Mathews and Festa. Both have great stuff, but still have things they need to develop and work on. Too small of sample sizes to be sold on either of them being ready for the majors. Varland should be in the bullpen. Due to injuries, we're forced to keep him stretched out. I think whenever he gets moved to relief, he can be a great weapon for us like he was late last year, letting it fly at 100MPH. After that, we've got a lot of talent coming up the system. Morris looks like the next man up, Id rather see him start before Varland. Then we've got Raya, Lewis, Prelipp, Culpeper. Canterino could also be a Alcala or Jax type setup man for our bullpen if he ever gets healthy. Really wish we'd get an update on him sometime...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Varland pitched 68 innings last year, so he lost his prospect status coming into this year. He’s still a pretty good pitcher, but borderline in the rotation even now with all the injuries.

Agreeing with others SWR is firmly in the rotation for 2025. He’s proven himself to be an MLB starting pitcher. While he might not be sexy/have the upside, he has a high floor.

Matthews and Festa have been a treat to watch and such amazing potential.

definitely agree with the gist of the OP that these 4 youngish pitchers give me optimism for the future

[jimbo92107]

Ober, Lopez, then Festa, Matthews and Sim. That five makes a pretty good starting rotation. Swap in Varland from the pen for whoever falters, and you've got a pretty good staff. Bring up Andrew Morris for spot duty in the pen and the rotation, and you've got an even better staff. 

Frankly, I'm seeing the kind of problem you want. Enough serious talent to shuffle 'em around and still win games. All these guys are strike throwers, and stingy with walks. This is a playoff team. Not yet a Series team, but they should be able to squeak into the tournament, maybe even surprise somebody. I'm not seeing inevitable losing here. I'm wondering how good these guys can be.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Werbellik said:

Same as you ranked them but only the first three. Varland is needed in the bullpen. If the need eventually arises he can be ramped up quickly. I don't understand with the insistence of being a starter when he can acrue big league service time relieving. He certainly looks like a reliever to me.

Varland isnt a starter.  Tell him its a MLB relief role or AAA.  Choose.

[bean5302]

Prospects are about trying to figure out what a player can bring to the table. Varland and Woods Richardson have both eclipsed rookie status. I don't consider either one a prospect at this point. You could just as well toss Bailey Ober in here (even though he's older than Pablo Lopez).

Festa's been getting results, but I'm not on board the bandwagon. Festa has a 4.00 ERA/FIP in AAA and a 5.00 ERA/FIP at the MLB level. That HR rate, the lack of control, and the quality of his stuff concerns me. 

Matthews looked pretty good in his first MLB start. His Stuff+ results are impressive, though the sample size is way too small yet. He'll need a couple more starts before things start to stabilize at all. All 5 of his pitches look to be solid MLB quality.
Fastball = 50 grade (95)
Changeup = 50 grade (94)
Cutter = 55 grade (112)
Slider = 55 grade (117)
Curve = 55 grade (112)

This is my view of how things appear to work out based on the numbers and other pitchers.
60 = 30 Unfit for MLB
70 = 35 
80 = 40 Below Average 
90 = 45
100 = 50 MLB Average
110 = 55
120 = 60 Plus
130 = 65
140 = Plus Plus 70 
150 = 75
160 = 80 Elite 
 

[old nurse]

Varland and SWR have surpassed well beyond the norm for prospect status. The question remains for them can they be like Ober and Ryan and develop enough to have a chance at getting paid in arbitration time, not ranking. Festa and Mathew’s have reached the major leagues as necessary pieces. Question one is are they good enough to stick or not. Question 2 is do they develop enough to get paid when arbitration level is reached. Ranking is insignificant at this point. Now ranking the next group would be informative as knowing what will be the 6-9 starter is always important and will the team have to keep a Dobnak just in case 

[ashbury]

Two years ago I was seriously concerned about the franchise. FalVine had been running things for almost six years and the vaunted Pitching Pipeline™ was producing a trickle.  Even last year's success at the major league level was more about stopgap acquisitions like Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda than a real development plan (and at the cost of valuable pitching prospects). A down year in 2024 would have had me seriously considering a change at the top if I were ownership, viewing 2023 as some sort of sad high-water mark.  2024 has me a whole lot more optimistic about the leadership, regardless of how this particular post-season turns out.  This article touches on some reasons why.

The Berrios trade, in particular, has always had zero to do with Austin Martin and everything to do with SWR, in my own mind.  You don't trade established pitching for anything but top-notch pitching prospects in return, and getting just one was a big gamble.  What kind of good pitching could you get by trading Martin now? Not much more than what we got by trading Nick Gordon, IMO.  It's SWR or bust, and right now the gamble is looking like a good payoff.  Kudos to the FO for the talent evaluation and the development so far.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

...The Berrios trade, in particular, has always had zero to do with Austin Martin and everything to do with SWR, in my own mind.  You don't trade established pitching for anything but top-notch pitching prospects in return, and getting just one was a big gamble.  What kind of good pitching could you get by trading Martin now? Not much more than what we got by trading Nick Gordon, IMO.  It's SWR or bust, and right now the gamble is looking like a good payoff.  Kudos to the FO for the talent evaluation and the development so far.

More than top notch prospects, Berrios was moved for what were supposed to be near MLB ready prospects, not guys who needed 3 years more in the minors. The trade has not worked out as intended, but thankfully, Woods Richardson looks like he'll be able to stick in MLB at this point. It's a big deal SWR has turned a corner.

Morris, Festa, Matthews = Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Sands, Duran, etc. I remain hopeful our prospects can work out, but for every pitching prospect the Twins have developed, there have been 3-4 sure fire rotation pieces who haven't been able to make it as starters.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

More than top notch prospects, Berrios was moved for what were supposed to be near MLB ready prospects, not guys who needed 3 years more in the minors. The trade has not worked out as intended, but thankfully, Woods Richardson looks like he'll be able to stick in MLB at this point. It's a big deal SWR has turned a corner.

Morris, Festa, Matthews = Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Sands, Duran, etc. I remain hopeful our prospects can work out, but for every pitching prospect the Twins have developed, there have been 3-4 sure fire rotation pieces who haven't been able to make it as starters.

MLB-ready is often an oxymoron when I hear it.  If someone's so darned "ready", why ain't they using him themselves instead of trading him?  I take it with a grain of salt and am prepared for either a lower ceiling than advertised (Martin) or else a longer gestation period (Richardson).  I'm patient when prospects are acquired at a young age - Richardson wasn't yet 21 on the day he was traded to us, just a baby*.  My only requirement is that they pan out.  (Pretty low bar I set, eh?)

 

* mixing metaphors is just one of the many fine services I offer the discriminating reader

[Fatbat]

Does it really matter which is #1 or #4?  SWR has clearly had the best growth year by pitching 100 MLB innings.  
Festa has lights out, make batters look silly type stuff.

Matthews is the raging bull and has Ober type #1.5 SP in his future. 
Varland and his heater can certainly be a mid rotation guy but at some point, (every Sept?)  will he go to the pen to be the 6/7inning stopper.  It sure seems logical. 
Everyone of these young guns is why Falvine were hired.  They all have LOTS of development left to discover and they all have 7-10 years of MLB careers ahead of them. Hopefully all as Twins!!! 
They will not be traded because you can’t give this type of stuff up and upgrade to what? 
The next group, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, Raya and Preillip are going to be knocking doors down in ‘25 &’26! 
Right on their heals is Soto, Dasan Hill, Tanner Hall, the Kid in the Dominican and probably 2 other kids that find the Falvine magic.  
I probably left out a guy or two so my apologies in advance! 
 

Until these guys start failing, other teams will be calling with a shopping list of who they want,  the sign on the store front should read,… “Not for Sale without Large Overpayment .”

 

[twinstalker]

I realize this pertains to only four MLB pitchers, but that's included here, too.

Zebby

Morris

Lewis

Festa

SWR (with apologies, I'm looking at attainable upside a few years down the road vs probability of getting to MLB as a starter)

Culpepper

Bengard/Soto

Varland is going to be a reliever as soon as the pipeline pushes everybody through, maybe before.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I would put Woods-Richardson first at this point - he has proven himself to be more than reliable.  Where would we be this season without him.  And I would then have Zebby second because I think he is making himself into something really special which leaves Festa third - and that is a sign of a really good group.  

Varland is the outlier.  Like other commentators I would see him in the BP which puts Morris as number four. 

SWR is 23…….3.78 ERA after 100 innings and twenty starts. He’s currently the most valuable. Does he have the best stuff? No. He’s got experience and is gritty.

Festa may have the best potential - not arguing that!

Matthews is just too untested - he could be the best ultimately. His propensity to come into the zone with his fastball nearly always may become too predictable…….you do have to like his confidence and determination to make guys earn their way on base.

I don’t think Varland has the mental composure to be an effective starter - at least not as much composure/effectiveness he may have as a guy trying to get 3-6 out from the Pen.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

More than top notch prospects, Berrios was moved for what were supposed to be near MLB ready prospects, not guys who needed 3 years more in the minors. The trade has not worked out as intended, but thankfully, Woods Richardson looks like he'll be able to stick in MLB at this point. It's a big deal SWR has turned a corner.

Fair enough, but Berrios' starting pitching time with Toronto has averaged out to a 4.40 ERA - he hasn't been 'lights out' for the Blue Jays either.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Until these guys start failing, other teams will be calling with a shopping list of who they want,  the sign on the store front should read,… “Not for Sale without Large Overpayment .”

 

I like the store front window sign. Of course, not all (maybe not even most) of these will pan out, but it sure feels different than the pipeline from the prior era.

[Fatbat]

16 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I like the store front window sign. Of course, not all (maybe not even most) of these will pan out, but it sure feels different than the pipeline from the prior era.

Very true but we don’t talk about the failures much as they slide away without mention.  Like that kid that got in a bar fight, the lefty that beat cancer, the aussie that was homesick…. We have plenty of failures and always will.  The pipeline is pumping full blast tho. 

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, VikingTwinTwolf said:

I agree with Webellik........Varland is BP guy.  He is typically fantastic for 2-3 innings.  He has All Star potential as a relief pitcher.  Apparently doesn't believe he's better there, so hopefully the change in mindset occurs or he gets traded.  

At the end of the day it's not HIS decision whether he starts or relieves.  He may have a preference but someone else ultimately makes the call.  That call is what it has been.  Regardless of what he, the fan base in general or TD readers prefer. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 minute ago, dxpavelka said:

At the end of the day it's not HIS decision whether he starts or relieves.  He may have a preference but someone else ultimately makes the call.  That call is what it has been.  Regardless of what he, the fan base in general or TD readers prefer. 

Correct, also decisions change. Varland is a starter now. He may not be in the future.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Fair enough, but Berrios' starting pitching time with Toronto has averaged out to a 4.40 ERA - he hasn't been 'lights out' for the Blue Jays either.

Maybe but in the ensuing years we gave up significant assets to get guys to fill the hole his departure left in the rotation.  Mahle, Gray, Lopez.  Any or all of those deals may have been unnecessary had we held on to the best we developed on our own in a decade.  Just sayin