Why are the Twins Waiting on Louie Varland?

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins broke camp from Fort Myers, Louie Varland went north. It didn’t take long before he had worked himself out of the starting rotation. It’s been something of a mixed bag at Triple-A St. Paul, but the big league club could use his services again. The catch, in relief.

There is zero denying that Louie Varland is among the Minnesota Twins greatest developmental projects. A 15th round pick during the 2019 season, Varland becoming a legitimate big league arm from Division II Concordia-St. Paul is a win in and of itself. He has seen inconsistent results out of the starting rotation, and that has continued on the farm this year.

After posting a 6.58 ERA across 26 big league innings this year, Varland has responded with a 5.35 ERA across 67 1/3 innings for Triple-A St. Paul. After getting lit up by the Toledo Mud Hens in his most recent return to Triple-A, Varland has made five starts resulting in a 1.85 ERA. Opponents have posted just a .608 OPS against, and Varland has racked up 27 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings.

The problem for both Varland and the Twins is that his services aren’t necessarily needed in the starting rotation. Minnesota has seen what he brings to that group, and the best-case scenario has been a near 4.00 ERA in a small sample size. At this point, given what happened at the trade deadline and where things are at going forward, it’s hard not to lean on the triple-digit fastball.

Varland worked 12 innings in relief down the stretch last season. He made his first appearance on September 6th, and he posted a ridiculous 1.50 ERA the rest of the way, Owning a 17/1 K/BB out of the bullpen, the traditional starter simply let it fly and destroyed the opposition. Minnesota needed relief help at the deadline and ownership allowed Derek Falvey an opportunity to only grab Trevor Richards. Brock Stewart is now back on the injured list, and Josh Staumont has been DFA’d. If there is a time to insert internal talent, it’s now.

There is no denying that Varland would prefer to start throughout his career, and the rest of the way. It’s a more lucrative path, and something that could create longevity. However, he also has top tier stuff in relief, and Minnesota could use his abilities there right now. The rotation has options in the form of David Festa, Randy Dobnak, and Zebby Matthews. Even if Chris Paddack doesn’t return for the club, starting depth gets less valuable in the postseason.

As the calendar turns to August, turning Varland loose in the bullpen makes sense. Wasting his bullets as a lengthy starter only puts usage questions into play when the games matter most. If Varland transitions to the bullpen for St. Paul, or immediately finds himself promoted to Minnesota, the pitcher and big league club both stand to benefit.

When Louie was originally demoted, it was because nothing was working. At this point, he has found success because everything is clicking. Allow him a chance to put it all together, and watch Rocco Baldelli roll out the best group he has had all season.

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[Dman]

I like the idea of putting him in the pen instead of starter.  He doesn't have to worry about going through the order a second time and if he locates his stuff it should work pretty well out of the pen (though I still worry about the long ball with him).  Given how Dobnak looked yesterday it feels like they could really use Louie in the pen.

Still with SWR tiring and Paddack not back yet and not knowing what we can really get from Festa they might need to wait a bit longer.

[Patzky]

Varland in the pen is great come September and October. But October isn't guaranteed. SWR is showing cracks. Festa is unproven. Joe Ryan still gives up the long ball. Starting help is needed.. ideally Paddack is back in a few weeks, or Varland comes in, and Dobnak gets optioned.

[tony&rodney]

Varland pitched on Saturday. It is possible he is slated for a Twins starting role on Friday on regular rest.

I agree that Varland would look good in the bullpen, but I think it will be September before this move takes place. Neither Matthews nor Dobnak are answers for an MLB start at this time. We hope David Festa can throw 4-6 innings in his starts with less than 4 runs allowed. That makes Varland a safety valve until late in the season or unless both Woods Richardson and Festa are reliable.  

I am pretty bullish on both SWR and DF but there are bound to be nerves concerning the young guns.

[Parfigliano]

Varland will be in MLB come playoffs.

[Jocko87]

Topa first.

[Craig Arko]

I expect Louie will be the 27th man on Friday. Possibly as a starter. 

[Rufus]

The way Woods Richardson has looked in his last two starts they better keep all their St Paul starting options open and available.   It beginning to look like they may need to skip him a time or two to rest his arm

[chpettit19]

I'm with the others. Varland will be in the pen at some point in September and for all of October. Likely enters next season in the opening day pen. But Dobnak is not "starter depth" and relying on a Zebby debut in the heat of a division and wild card race is crazy aggressive. Varland is the #6 starter right now. Can't put him in the pen quite yet.

[NYCTK]

Big fan of giving pitchers every chance to make it as a starter. I'm someone that will say the Twins SHOULD give Jax every chance to become a starter again in the offseason. But Varland doesn't seem to really have the makeup of a starter. He hasn't shown anything special in that role at his high minors stops and obviously not in the show. The second time batters face him, they tee off. 

Happy to have him join the bullpen for the remaining 8 weeks. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland pitched on Saturday. It is possible he is slated for a Twins starting role on Friday on regular rest.

I agree that Varland would look good in the bullpen, but I think it will be September before this move takes place. Neither Matthews nor Dobnak are answers for an MLB start at this time. We hope David Festa can throw 4-6 innings in his starts with less than 4 runs allowed. That makes Varland a safety valve until late in the season or unless both Woods Richardson and Festa are reliable.  

I am pretty bullish on both SWR and DF but there are bound to be nerves concerning the young guns.

Varland should be the 27th man on Friday, starting the second game of the doubleheader.  Let's see him in a starting role before making a final decision. We are going to need at least one more starter this year even if Lopez, Ober, and Ryan stay healthy. SWR seems to be hitting a wall, Paddack's return date is unknown, and Festa is a complete crapshoot.  Dobnak hasn't looked great since his return and I shudder at the thought that he might get a start. Varland looks like the best bet right now since Zebby is hardly dominating AAA.  

I could easily see Varland getting 3-4 starts through the rest of August into mid-September. He can then transition into the Bullpen my mid- September because we should only need 3-4 starters in the playoffs. We can and should try for the best of both worlds with him. 

[NYCTK]

Just now, LA VIkes Fan said:

We are going to need at least one more starter this year

Darn! If only the team knew this before the trade deadline. Oh well! 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I like the idea of putting him in the pen instead of starter.  He doesn't have to worry about going through the order a second time and if he locates his stuff it should work pretty well out of the pen (though I still worry about the long ball with him).  Given how Dobnak looked yesterday it feels like they could really use Louie in the pen.

Still with SWR tiring and Paddack not back yet and not knowing what we can really get from Festa they might need to wait a bit longer.

If they need a start, they can rest him if needed. They are in a playoff chase, and imo, should be all in with the players they have available. Play to win, stop playing not to lose. I get others disagree. I'm ok with that. It's a philosophy, not a fact. 

[bean5302]

Varland almost certainly needs to move to the 'pen to help the Twins. I don't think there's a good chance he can be an effective MLB starter. While his sparkly ERA is 1.48, he's been up and down in terms of expected results. His FIP over that period is 4.08. Still serviceable, but Varland's consistently given up very hard contact as a starter at the MLB level.

[roger]

At first glance, agreed with most of what you said.  But after reading the comments, gotta agree that the wise decision may be to wait a few weeks before making the move to the pen.  If they get Topa back by the weekend, the need for Louie at this time is reduced.

Must disagree with one thing you said, however, Ted.  That was another comment about ownership not allowing them to up the payroll cost at the deadline.  Yes, there were reports that was true.  However, that may not be the main reason they only made one minor deal.  Great article in today's Strib by Souhan that not doing more at the deadline may have been a smart decision.  He mentioned that back when Gardy was manager he was bugging Terry Ryan to make some deals as the deadline approached.  Ryan invited him to spend the deadline day with him in his office.  Gardy later commented he didn't believe what other GM's were asking and he also wouldn't have given up the prospect talent to make those deals.  Was last week another example of that?

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland pitched on Saturday. It is possible he is slated for a Twins starting role on Friday on regular rest.

 

That's my guess as well. 27th man.

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, roger said:

At first glance, agreed with most of what you said.  But after reading the comments, gotta agree that the wise decision may be to wait a few weeks before making the move to the pen.  If they get Topa back by the weekend, the need for Louie at this time is reduced.

Must disagree with one thing you said, however, Ted.  That was another comment about ownership not allowing them to up the payroll cost at the deadline.  Yes, there were reports that was true.  However, that may not be the main reason they only made one minor deal.  Great article in today's Strib by Souhan that not doing more at the deadline may have been a smart decision.  He mentioned that back when Gardy was manager he was bugging Terry Ryan to make some deals as the deadline approached.  Ryan invited him to spend the deadline day with him in his office.  Gardy later commented he didn't believe what other GM's were asking and he also wouldn't have given up the prospect talent to make those deals.  Was last week another example of that?

All the other GMs are wrong every year?

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

All the other GMs are wrong every year?

The other 29 teams conspired to make outrageous demands of the Twins, but not of each other.

Poor Twins, what could they do?

[JD-TWINS]

I thought your article was going to be about how he’s going to have to start either Friday or next Tuesday v. Royals. Can’t cover those two spots/starts without some help from AAA!

He’s definitely in the Pen in October!

If the other starters hold up, am assuming they’ll move him to Pen by September 15, to get acclimated.

Dobnak shouldn’t be on the 26-man ………Matthews isn’t really an option until he has a bit of sustained success in St Paul 

Really hope Topa has some level of competence in Minneapolis SOON!

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Topa first.

I've been advocating for Varland in the pen since the start of the season. Varland is great 1st time through the order but doesn't have his secondary pitches going to get him much beyond that, My point he can pitch in spot start/ long relief & still work in his change-up. We really need Varland to help out our rotation & BP, especially for this double-header but they won't bring up Varland & have him settled in the pen until Topa has every opportunity to succeed in short relief 1st.

[Blyleven2011]

Varland is a good Minnesota story ...

Varland must be stubborn though  , he seems to like the bus rides in the minors and continues to want to be a starter , he was minor leagues pitcher of the year 2 years in a row , but not since his arrival to AAA .

Varland has shown flashes of success but no consistency as a starter  , his best consistency  ( small sample size ) was in the pen in late 2023 ...

Varland has been a hard worker  as he improved every year except for this year as a starter in AAA  , though he has had a handful of starts in AAA  the past 6 weeks that has been good ...

can he be a consistent starter or a more reliable  bullpen arm , the team and Varland need to figure this out ( where his value is ) ...

I haven't given up on varland as a starter , but I saw promise in the bullpen  in 2023 ...

I'm sure we will see varland  as the 27th man as a starter ( his last spot start was good as a twin ) , and then varland  to the pen the rest of the season  , we can't wait for topa , he may take another 3 weeks to build up and then no  guarantee on his consistency  ...

 

[NotAboutWinning]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The other 29 teams conspired to make outrageous demands of the Twins, but not of each other.

Poor Twins, what could they do?

I think previous trades by this FO have given them a reputation as poor negotiators at the deadline. I watched an Orioles game a few weeks back where Cade Povich was pitching (to the Orioles in the Jorge Lopez trade). The commentators absolutely raked Falvine over the coals for such a bad trade. Both Povich & Cano to the Orioles, smoke & mirrors Lopez to the Twins. If you are negotiating with a FO you feel are easy marks, you are going to push for top dollar. Seems Falvine are not savvy enough to push back until they get a real offer.

[Rosterman]

If anything, I would tagg team him with SWR, either as an opener pitching up to three innings or coming on in relief. SWR will need to limit iunning output sooner rather than later.

Question is, who goes. Topa coming back. Okert and Thielbar are the lefties. Is Dobnak, again, on the short leash?

[purplesoldier4u]

Still missing Sonny Gray. 🥺

[mark allen]

still think Andrew Morrus should get the shot. Not sure why they are keeping him in double a

[DocBauer]

I don't believe Topa is a pen savior. But based on his 2023 with Seattle, and a good rehab so far, I think he can help in about a week.

Of course we're all hoping for Stewart in September.

SWR had maybe his best start 3 turns ago, IIRC. His last 2 games were pretty poor. Doesn't mean he's hit a wall yet as he seemed to be getting better before that pair of starts. I believe he's still under 100 IP. Not going to say he's hitting a wall yet. But I wouldn't mind a 6 day rest or a missed start at some point.

I do think Varland stays in the rotation for now. Come September, he should be in the pen. I have a feeling he's going to stay there going forward. Nothing wrong with being a stud 1 or 2 inning pen arm.

Not going to speculate on Dobnak's future. I will say that with his repertoire and past appearances in the pen a couple years ago, I think I like him better as a possible starter than I do in the pen.

 

 

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Rufus said:

The way Woods Richardson has looked in his last two starts they better keep all their St Paul starting options open and available.   It beginning to look like they may need to skip him a time or two to rest his arm

Speaking of resting arms, I wonder what the plan is for young pitchers like SWR and Ober for the rest of this season. I would think that both of them are nearing or have exceeded their previous career high of innings pitched (I haven't checked the stats, so someone will have to back me up or shoot me down on that hypothesis). But with crunch time coming up these final two months, it will be nice not to need to over-tax the arms of those pitchers that are not accustomed to pitching so many innings. 

[Rufus]

Ober is 29,.  he is older than Lopez.  Hopefully his arm is strong enough to take the rigors of a full season.

[stringer bell]

The consensus seems to be that Louie will get the ball vs. the Guards on Friday and that the Twins should wait a bit before converting him to relief. I agree with both opinion/predictions. I do think the sample size is way too small to have any degree of certainty that Varland will be a big bullpen asset. I also think that he does have enough stuff to be a successful starter, so I see no need to rush him to the BP.

It would appear that the Twins are going to face Cleveland with these four guys getting the starts--Ober and Varland on Friday, Woods Richardson on Saturday and Festa on Sunday. I understand not messing with the rotation and giving the guys who have thrown the most innings an extra day when there is an off day, but Cleveland is coming in to Minnesota and will only have to face one of the Twins' top three pitchers in a four-game series. They will have López, Ryan Ober lined up for the Royals.

[wabene]

15 hours ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Still missing Sonny Gray. 🥺

My last memory of Sonny was sitting in the stands in the playoff game against Houston and looking at the scoreboard in the 1st inning; Houston 4, Minnesota 0. Tough way to start. It was memorable how the fans stayed positive to the end.