What Do the Twins Have in Reliever Trevor Richards?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Where does Trevor Richards fit in the Twins bullpen hierarchy? What does his stuff look like? Let's take a deep dive.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

As the clock struck 5 PM Central time on July 30, Twins Territory erupted in cheers, as a last-minute tweet from ESPN insider Jeff Passan appeared on their phone: "The Minnesota Twins have acquired starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, per sources." The organization defied all odds and widespread perception, acquiring a starting pitcher who will surely help them as they contend for the AL Central with the vaunted Cleveland Guardians while fending off the surging Kansas City Royals. Personall--ah, wait--Oh, okay. Sorry, never mind. Matt just informed me that I can't just make stuff up because it's what I wish happened. He's also telling me it's not a healthy coping mechanism. Okay, let me restart.

As the clock struck 5 PM central time on July 30, Twins Territory looked on somberly, as the only trade deadline acquisition the organization made was acquiring veteran right-handed reliever Trevor Richards from the retooling Toronto Blue Jays. The Twins sent infield prospect Jay Harry (who has a 91 wRC+ over 340 plate appearances at High-A) back to Toronto in the deal. Finances and lack of going "all-in" aside, the Twins acquired an arm who will play a consequential role in the team's ability to chase down the Guardians and fend off the Royals down the stretch. So, whom has the club acquired? And what role will he play as the regular season nears its triumphant conclusion? Let's take a look.

Richards, 31, was not selected by an MLB team in the 2015 MLB Draft. After playing one season for the Gateway Grizzlies of the independent Frontier League, he signed with the Miami Marlins. He pitched in their minor-league system for two years before debuting as a starting pitcher in 2018. Richards bounced between Miami, the Tampa Bay Rays, and Milwaukee Brewers as a reliever before finding a long-term home with the Blue Jays in 2021. Here is how Richards has performed the past two and a half seasons north of the border:

• 2021 - .143/.213/.339 opponent slash line, 3.31 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 37-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 32 2/3 innings pitched
• 2022 - .238/.332/.396 opponent slash line, 5.34 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 82-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 64 innings pitched
• 2023 - .228/.318/.424, 4.95 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 105-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 72 ⅔ innings pitched

Posting a combined 4.53 ERA over 169 1/3 innings pitched, Richards has been one of the top pen arms of an organization that made the postseason two out of the three seasons he was there. Here are the 31-year-old righty's career splits:

• Facing right-handed hitters: .249/.320/.438 opponent slash line, .324 opponent wOBA, 342-to-116 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1,298 batters faced
• Facing left-handed hitters: .222/.313/.375 opponent slash line, .299 opponent wOBA, 256-to-121 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1,044 batters faced

Despite having shakier command when facing left-handed hitters, evidenced by five more walks over 254 fewer batters faced, Richards has performed better against lefties. His tendency to perform better against opposite-handed hitters has been especially glaring this season. He owns a .183/.272/.268 opponent slash line against left-handed hitters, netting a 16-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and holding them to a .247 wOBA over 82 batters faced. In contrast, he has allowed a .210/.306/.410 opponent slash line to right-handed hitters, netting a 28-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio and holding them to a .313 wOBA over 122 batters faced. One of the two primary positions the Twins needed to acquire at the deadline was a reliever who pitched well against left-handed relievers. While a left-handed reliever would have been ideal, Richards fits the bill nevertheless. He will likely become the primary reliever against left-handed hitters, meaning Steven Okert and Caleb Thielbar will be demoted from their current roles.

Richards's opponent slash lines are encouraging. However, his counting statistics tell a different story. Over his first 46 innings pitched, he netted a 2.54 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and a 45-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 178 batters faced. Despite sustaining a 4.16 xFIP, his start to the season was genuinely impressive, netting a 25.3% strikeout rate and leaving 71% of runners on base. Unfortunately, a flip switched, and the Drury University product's performance has significantly dipped as of late, netting a 19.89 ERA, 9.79 FIP, and a measly 4-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 6 1/3 innings pitched. His strikeout rate has plummeted to an uninspiring 10% while leaving just 41.7% of runners on base. He has also encountered a home run issue, generating a 16.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio and allowing two home runs in this stretch.

Now, many factors could be playing in his sudden decrease in performance. The Blue Jays have gone from contending with postseason aspirations to begin the season to being effectively out of the race, holding a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. They underwent a firesale of sorts, sending off veterans Yimi García, Nate Pearson, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier, and Richards before the deadline. The team's dwindling postseason chances could have played into his recent struggles. Yet, there is real cause for concern, particularly with the quality of his pitches.

From Mar. 28 through July 4, Richards's fastball had a 5.4 Fastball runs above average at FanGraphs (wFA) over 38 appearances. Interestingly, his fastball had its most value in an appearance against the Twins on May 11, netting 0.8 wFA in one game. His changeup performed similarly well during the same stretch, manufacturing a 4.6 Changeup runs above average at FanGraphs (wCH). Like his fastball, his changeup performed its best against the Twins on May 11, netting 1.0 wCH in that appearance. It's impossible to know, but Richards performing so well against the Twins in that appearance could have played a role in the organization's interest in him. Nevertheless, the quality of his fastball and changeup have dropped over his past seven appearances, evidenced by a -5.7 wFA and -1.3 wCH in that stretch.

As inferred, Richards is a two-pitch pitcher who uses only a fastball and changeup when facing either-handed hitters. His changeup is his superior pitch, evidenced by a .147 opponent batting average over 530 pitches thrown compared to a .238 opponent batting average on his fastball over 397 pitches thrown. His reverse splits are the byproduct of his changeup suddenly dropping out of the zone of opposite-handed hitters and often forcing them to produce uncompetitive swings.

While his changeup is one of the more effective and competitive pitches in baseball, most of its positive results occur in moments with little weight. Of his 52 1/3 innings pitched, 33 have come in low-leverage situations. 22 1/3 innings have come in medium-leverage situations, and only 9 2/3 have come in high-leverage situations. Here is how Richards performs in each respective situation:

• Low-leverage: .182/.272/.281 opponent slash line, .253 opponent wOBA, 30-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 123 batters faced
• Medium-leverage: .167/.230/.444 opponent slash line, .328 opponent wOBA, 19-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 95 batters faced
• High-leverage: .324/.426/.622 opponent slash line, .433 opponent wOBA, 6-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 21 batters faced

Richards performs exceptionally in low-leverage situations, below average in mid-leverage situations, and poorly in high-leverage situations. His tendency to struggle in medium-leverage situations and downright flounder in high-leverage situations doesn't bode well for a team competing to win the AL Central and hold off teams like the Royals, Boston Red Sox, and Seattle Mariners for the second Wild Card spot. That said, he still performs better than the team's other primary relievers used against left-handed hitters. Here is how Okert has performed in medium-leverage and high-leverage situations:

• Medium-leverage: .333/.438/.630 opponent slash line, .447 opponent wOBA, 6-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 33 batters faced
• High-leverage: .423/.483/.615 opponent slash line, .472 wOBA, 4-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 29 batters faced

Here is how Thielbar has performed in medium-leverage and high-leverage situations:

• Medium-leverage: .269/.310/.269 opponent slash line, .261 wOBA, 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 29 batters faced
• High-leverage: .353/.500/.529 opponent slash line, .439 wOBA, 4-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 23 batters faced

Richards will presumably slot into a medium-leverage role, usurping Okert and Thielbar. He also will likely fall fifth in line in the bullpen's hierarchy behind present high-leverage relievers Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcalá, and Cole Sands. He could earn a more prominent role if he performs well at the beginning of August. However, with the team having no long-term investment in the veteran reliever and him not performing well the past month, expectations shouldn't be too high. Nevertheless, he is presumably a better option against left-handed hitters than Okert, Thielbar, and Kody Funderburk (once he returns from the 15-day IL) and should be considered an improvement on the margins.

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[LewFordLives]

They really needed a starter, and with Stewart's status up in the air they also needed an impact reliever.  They got neither. Prices were high. I get it. However, the front office has known they needed a starter since Sonny Gray left and have had plenty of time to figure out a solution.

[Brett]

Nice write up.

In summary, meh.

[CRF]

Nothing against Richards, but this was a move...just to make a move. He's not what we needed. 

[Mark G]

After reading all of the math lessons we get to describe pitchers today, I don't see that much of an upgrade.  And if he was "one of the top pen arms" Toronto had, I can see real quick why they have a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs.  

But, as always, I can be educated.  😉

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  Well researched .  Way to much info for a meh reliever.  I hope he does well.  I'm quite sure he will propel us to the playoffs and a world series title.

[NYCTK]

Only four relievers in the majors with at least 30 IP have had worse Win Percentage Added than our new guy. 195th out of 199 pitchers. 

 

[Schmoeman5]

So basically the Twins got a nothing burger with a side of doodely squat. Was the video just to show us his 20 best pitches? I'm pumped for all of his low leverage appearances over the last 2+ months. Who ever got sent to the Jays org. must really be struggling.

[DJL44]

I would rather give the innings to this guy than Winder or Henriquez but it doesn't help much. If they want to improve the bullpen it will need to come from within the organization (Topa, Varland).

[Twins GFP]

49 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Only four relievers in the majors with at least 30 IP have had worse Win Percentage Added than our new guy. 195th out of 199 pitchers. 

 

Yup.  Not sure why, with the Twins screaming poor, they would roll out $700k plus a low level prospect for a guy they could pick up a comp for anytime off the waiver wire.

This feels to me like making a move so they can say they made a move.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The best bullpen in baseball!

[LambchoP]

Didn't get the starter or impact lefty reliever we needed. This guy would be a DFA candidate on a lot of teams. Our bullpen is in real trouble. Time to move Varland there, hope Stewart isn't out too much longer and can regain his form, hope Topa makes his debut soon and pitches well. That's a lot of hoping and lots of pitchers needing to pitch above their ability. With both CLE and KC improving, I wouldn't be surprised if we miss the playoffs completely. This team looks to have no fire or fight in them. And the front offices decision not to even try to improve the team for the stretch run has to be bad for morale...very frustrating as a fan.

[mikelink45]

This was so anticlimactic that the only good thing that came out of it was your first paragraph - after that it was back to so what.  How does Richards rank with Jackson, Staumont, Okert, and all the other amazing BP pickups? 

[Jeff K]

I ought not be disappointed in the Twins ownership as they are simply doing what they said they were going to do.  My bad.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

There is a possibility they can find something there,   that is the one thing with relievers,  you never know when things can suddenly click.  Whether Thielbar, Jax, or Stewart.  The Twins do seem to find value.  Even still I am not highly optomistic and I think this may be very similar to a Floro situation last year.  

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I ought not be disappointed in the Twins ownership as they are simply doing what they said they were going to do.  My bad.

The lack of action at the deadline, combined with Falvey's contract up at the end of the season feels like a vote of no-confidence in this front office.

[saviking]

As far as I'm concerned moving Varland back to the pen would have been a much better move.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I would rather give the innings to this guy than Winder or Henriquez but it doesn't help much. If they want to improve the bullpen it will need to come from within the organization (Topa, Varland).

This. Richard improves the bullpen simply because he's better than Staumont, better than the guys we currently have at AAA, and may be better than Okert. We didn't trade a player who appears to have much of a future to get him. Richard is now the number seven man in an eight-man bullpen, ahead of Okert (#8) but behind Dobnak. To the extent one considers that an "upgrade", that's pretty much it. 

Any bullpen improvement is going to have to come from a combination of Topa, Varland, and our old friend Randy Dobnak. I know we have to keep Varland stretched out as a starter for depth for the next month but after that he should be up in Minnesota in the bullpen. The interesting part is going to be who goes to create space for Topa and eventually Varland over the next few weeks.

Given the prices paid for Trevor Rogers and Kikuchi, I guess I'm okay with us not trading for a starting pitcher. The Dodgers got a good deal for Flaherty although it is a little concerning that the Yankees had a deal in place for him with Detroit and backed out after looking at his medical records. I'm not a fan of trading for a backend innings eater type like Cal Quantrill. I'd rather play the long game with the #4 and #5 spots and give those starts to a combination of SWR, Festa, and Paddack, with maybe even two or three starts to Zebby Matthews thrown in now that we have a long reliever in Dobnak to use as a piggyback.

Now that the dust has settled, I guess I'm both disappointed and relieved. I'm disappointed we didn't make a higher profile move for a better reliever and I think we could have done that if we had been willing to sacrifice some better prospects. Having said that, I do think this roster is really one year away from being a true contender so I wouldn't want to sacrifice much of the future for that reliever. Overall, I can live with this. 

[NYCTK]

32 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

This team looks to have no fire or fight in them.

Imagine being a player on the team. Carlos knew what was up. This was a pretty well constructed team that needs just a little bit of assistance. And instead the front office decided to thumb their nose at the on field staff. 

The vibes are way off these days. I would not be surprised at all to see them go 7-13 over their next 20. 

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Any bullpen improvement is going to have to come from a combination of Topa, Varland, and our old friend Randy Dobnak. I know we have to keep Varland stretched out as a starter for depth for the next month but after that he should be up in Minnesota in the bullpen. The interesting part is going to be who goes to create space for Topa and eventually Varland over the next few weeks.

Topa up, Dobnak down is the obvious move.

[mrcharlie]

Twins have pieces that other teams could use.  Talent that could have netted a reliable left handed pitcher.  I'm thinking kirilloff, Wallner or Margo (who has been performing lately).  Packaging one of them with a low level prospect could have meant something.  On the flip side...hard to make these deals when prices are inflated.  

[Beast]

They have a reliever that gives up a lot of runs.  9 over his last 5 appearances.  Encouraging strikeout numbers in previous years, though.  Down this year.  Just doesn’t get batters out.

Rationalize that as an improvement all you want….still not likely going to get batters out and contribute to winning enough games to make the playoffs.

Like clockwork, I see a headline right away this morning elsewhere, “Twins tried to trade for Kikuchi.”  A high ranking individual in “belly of beast” say the Astros paid “quite a haul.”  They gave up their #2 overall prospect, #5 and #19.    I could be mistaken, but I can’t currently find any of them in MLB’s top 100.

Not sure I’d consider that “quite the haul.”  But, darn.  Edged out by a hair again,  just like every other trade deadline, and it just happened to be leaked to a mouthpiece. Shocking.

It clearly set a bit of a tone in the clubhouse, after watching them get absolutely carved up by two fairly mediocre pitchers while getting out scored 17 runs to 2 in the last two games.

After they probably lose today, I predict this team will be out of a playoff spot within the next couple of weeks, and will remain there, with series coming up against Cleveland, KC, Tex, San Diego, St. Louis, Atlanta, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and KC. 5 of those series (including 2 4 gamers) on the road, after the upcoming series against the Chicago teams.  That’s not an easy schedule.

[mrcharlie]

17 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Imagine being a player on the team. Carlos knew what was up. This was a pretty well constructed team that needs just a little bit of assistance. And instead the front office decided to thumb their nose at the on field staff. 

The vibes are way off these days. I would not be surprised at all to see them go 7-13 over their next 20. 

💯 Exactly!  Sending the wrong message to players and fans these last several months.  If you just consider the attitude of ownership you would not think this team was competitive, yet here they are in good shape to make the playoffs.  Hats off to players and coaches!

[LA Vikes Fan]

13 minutes ago, Beast said:

They have a reliever that gives up a lot of runs.  9 over his last 5 appearances.  Encouraging strikeout numbers in previous years, though.  Down this year.  Just doesn’t get batters out.

Rationalize that as an improvement all you want….still not likely going to get batters out and contribute to winning enough games to make the playoffs.

Like clockwork, I see a headline right away this morning elsewhere, “Twins tried to trade for Kikuchi.”  A high ranking individual in “belly of beast” say the Astros paid “quite a haul.”  They gave up their #2 overall prospect, #5 and #19.    I could be mistaken, but I can’t currently find any of them in MLB’s top 100.

Not sure I’d consider that “quite the haul.”  But, darn.  Edged out by a hair again,  just like every other trade deadline, and it just happened to be leaked to a mouthpiece. Shocking.

It clearly set a bit of a tone in the clubhouse, after watching them get absolutely carved up by two fairly mediocre pitchers while getting out scored 17 runs to 2 in the last two games.

After they probably lose today, I predict this team will be out of a playoff spot within the next couple of weeks, and will remain there, with series coming up against Cleveland, KC, Tex, San Diego, St. Louis, Atlanta, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and KC. 5 of those series (including 2 4 gamers) on the road, after the upcoming series against the Chicago teams.  That’s not an easy schedule.

Was curious about the schedule so I went to Tankathon. com where they track ease off remaining schedule by your opponents winning percentage. They show the Twins with the 16th hardest remaining schedule in baseball, seventh hardest in the American League.  By comparison, here's the remaining scehdule strength for our likely competitors, with the opponents' winning % in parentheses:

Kansas City (.521) - 2nd hardest schedule in baseball, 2nd hardest in the American League.

Cleveland (.520) - 3rd hardest schedule in baseball, 3rd hardest in the American League.

Boston (.507) - 10th hardest schedule in baseball, 4th hardest in the American League.

Houston (.503) - 15th hardest schedule in baseball, 6th hardest in the American League.

Minnesota (.503) - 16th hardest schedule in baseball, 7th hardest in the American League.

Seattle (.502) - 18th hardest schedule in baseball, 8th hardest in the American League.

Baltimore (.498) - 20th hardest schedule in baseball, 10th hardest in the American League.

Yankees (.479) - 27th hardest schedule in baseball, 12th hardest in the American League.

See, not all the news is bad this morning. You got to figure that Baltimore and the Yankees are pretty close to locks since both upgraded at the deadline, both have relatively easy schedules, both have good records already, and both play two teams that are now tanking the season as part of their divisional games at the end, Toronto and Tampa Bay. That leaves the Twins with the division race and, assuming Cleveland went to the division, the race for the final two wildcard spots with Kansas City, Boston, and either Houston or Seattle which ever one doesn't win the West. We have a pretty significant schedule advantage against Kansas City and Cleveland, a slight advantage against Boston, and basically the same strength of schedule as Houston and Seattle. Not bad, not bad at all.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Apparently a guy that can't handle pressure? I'm not sure how this helps anyone serious about winning. 

[Old Crow]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

Nothing against Richards, but this was a move...just to make a move. He's not what we needed. 

It,s hard to put lip stick on this one.

[bean5302]

Richards doesn't generally give up a lot of hard contact, but he walks too many batters so when the hard contact shows up, it's generally a rough outing I'd imagine. I'm not sure what role the Twins really have for him.

[DocBauer]

Lousy against RH bats, only slightly better against LH bats, and basically bad against both sides unless it's a low leverage situation.

All I expected and dared hope for was a solid, competent, LH arm who could slot in as out 5th or 6th arm. We didn't even get that.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

Nothing against Richards, but this was a move...just to make a move. He's not what we needed. 

I definitely agree but we need 1 guy that catches lightning in a bottle to help in October.  It doesn't  matter who it is or how he got to the show.  We just need 1 more guy. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

They have a reliever that gives up a lot of runs.  9 over his last 5 appearances.  Encouraging strikeout numbers in previous years, though.  Down this year.  Just doesn’t get batters out.

Rationalize that as an improvement all you want….still not likely going to get batters out and contribute to winning enough games to make the playoffs.

Like clockwork, I see a headline right away this morning elsewhere, “Twins tried to trade for Kikuchi.”  A high ranking individual in “belly of beast” say the Astros paid “quite a haul.”  They gave up their #2 overall prospect, #5 and #19.    I could be mistaken, but I can’t currently find any of them in MLB’s top 100.

Not sure I’d consider that “quite the haul.”  But, darn.  Edged out by a hair again,  just like every other trade deadline, and it just happened to be leaked to a mouthpiece. Shocking.

It clearly set a bit of a tone in the clubhouse, after watching them get absolutely carved up by two fairly mediocre pitchers while getting out scored 17 runs to 2 in the last two games.

After they probably lose today, I predict this team will be out of a playoff spot within the next couple of weeks, and will remain there, with series coming up against Cleveland, KC, Tex, San Diego, St. Louis, Atlanta, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and KC. 5 of those series (including 2 4 gamers) on the road, after the upcoming series against the Chicago teams.  That’s not an easy schedule.

No one has an easy schedule. Gardians, Rsox, Astros, KC, Rays, Mariners all have warts. We will be right in the middle of the puddle.