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Posted

As the 2024 Minnesota Twins trade deadline approached, there weren't a ton of significant needs. Derek Falvey had placed to improve the roster, but monumental moves were unnecessary. With the dust now settled, the outcome paints a grim picture for the future.

 

On Tuesday evening, after another ugly loss to the surging New York Mets, the Twins sit 6.5 games back in the AL Central. While things aren’t currently going well, Rocco Baldelli’s squad still possesses the talent to win the division. Their schedule is favorable down the stretch, and internal additions should provide a boost.

Despite that reality, fallout from the Minnesota Twins actions at the deadline, or lack thereof, provide more questions than answers.

Why should Falvey, Levine, or Baldelli stick around?
Plenty has been made of the front office and manager in recent seasons. The reality is the analytical approach has brought them towards a more forward thinking organization, and has helped to develop key talents like Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Griffin Jax. Baldelli may miss some of the strings he pulls during a game, but is right more often than not and well-respected by those he oversees.

The same can be said for Falvey and Levine. As much as running an organization is about roster management, it also revolves around putting people in the right places. The entirety of the system is better off because of what Falvey has done, and Levine’s influence has a far-reaching impact as well.

Given the stunt that ownership has pulled the past handful of months, it’s not difficult to think that all would be better off in more ideal scenarios. The front office has built a competitive situation despite a lacking amount of resources. Baldelli has managed what he has to work with on the field. Looking back, it’s now shocking to think that Levine didn’t jump at the Red Sox jump, and wonder if Falvey couldn’t be next to be poached. Similar to Craig Counsell this past offseason, Baldelli could be given another group elsewhere as well.

Minnesota didn’t move the 40-man
The Twins current 40-man roster situation is relatively tricky. With so many players dealing with a level of injury, there aren’t obvious spots to promote talent. Bringing Randy Dobnak back to the big leagues meant putting Alex Kirilloff on the 60-day injured list. That may be among the final straightforward moves that the team had.

Given the financial constraints imposed by ownership, it made some level of sense that someone on the 40-man could have been traded. Max Kepler, Manuel Margot, and Christian Vazquez were the likely candidates from the 26-man roster, but all of them made it through. From a prospect perspective, Yunior Severino and Josh Winder both appeared as a likely candidates if the Twins were going to target anyone of substance, but we never saw that play out.

Money really was a big deal
It shouldn’t come as a shock that financial constraints came into play for the Twins. From the first moment they could, the Pohlad’s started making it known that their financial situation was going to impact the Twins. Whether that is because of poor business practice elsewhere, or a relative lack of understanding when it comes to timely support of a product, ownership was ready to sink this ship.

Trevor Richards was the lone acquisition at the deadline, and he comes with a paycheck of just over $1 million. Sending Josh Staumont out, it’s no secret that they will be hoping he is claimed and the salary can transfer elsewhere. Marginal moves could have been made by the Twins, but every report suggesting the front office had no dollars to work with became reality.

Toeing the company line even after what should be looked at as a disastrous deadline, Falvey had a bunch of words to say nothing when it came to his thoughts about dollars.

Does the wrath of Correa exist?
When the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa to his long-term deal, the superstar shortstop talked about building a winning culture. He wanted to be involved in transactions that sought additional talent, and having previously won a World Series, he wanted to get back to that place. Despite giving his employer a career-year in 2024, he was rewarded with crickets.

Correa provided the front office a list of names to target. A player entirely obsessed with WAR and values around the game, he definitely knows what he is talking about. Falvey probably had to laugh internally knowing his bosses gave him a pair of sticks to rub together, but Correa now sees that play out as well.

The Twins shortstop still has multiple years left on his deal. Despite a franchise-record payroll in 2023, the year following results in a $30 million payroll decrease. Things get more murky next year, and that sort of talent can’t be thrilled seeing a lack of financial support around him. As was the case when the Pohlad family paid for Joe Mauer, Correa is set up to be a scapegoat for financial ineptitude if this path continues.

Roll the dice in October
It’s fair to suggest that the postseason is an exercise of attrition. The reality is that a team winning the World Series is the perfect combination of hot play and ideal circumstances. Minnesota could definitely be a contender with the talent they possess, but it will require availability for all involved and everything breaking right.

Rather than pushing the chips in and looking to avoid the first round, a short three-game series should be expected. The Twins will likely face the same road they attempted to traverse a year ago, and with just three proven starters, the weight will be felt on their shoulders. That pressure could have been addressed or avoided entirely with reinforcements, but is now the reality that each player on the roster will face.

Tuesday, combined with some ugly Mets losses, may have been the most frustrating day of the Twins season. As long as the Pohlad’s are in charge though, you can expect more to come.


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Posted

This is not a Falvey/Lavine issue.
This is not a Correa issue.

Ownership was ready to sink the ship?  Ownership is actively SINKING the ship.

Plausible scenario over the next 12 months:
Falvey and Lavine jump ship, cheaper, lesser qualified "yes" man gets hired
Correa gets traded
Lopez gets traded
Duran gets traded (rumblings about this now)
Twins re-sign with Bally for television
Twins raise ticket prices

How things looking so far?

Posted

This is as expected IMO. The Twins (Pohlad) are not a serious MLB franchise in terms of pursuing titles. They do work to balance being average and minimizing payroll. It is basically a standard business model. What is the path to be average to above average at the lowest cost possible? It is why I follow the Twins sporadically and mostly on this site. I have spent too much of my life being more concerned with the Twins winning games than the owners are. Now they don't get any of my money and only a minimal amount of my time.

Posted

Well said. For all of the Sturm und Drang one reads here regarding the front office and management, I think the record shows that Falvey and Levine have done a very good job upgrading and updating the organization. I also think that Baldelli has done a very good job as manager, although he is a little too reliant on probabilities. I think all three of them would have little difficulty finding similar positions with other organizations, particularly midmarket or smaller market teams. It may be that they wouldn't move unless called by a bigger market organization but I don't think they would have any trouble finding another position.

The clear problem is ownership. We can talk about how the Twins do as a business and all that is interesting, but to me it's ultimately irrelevant. I'm a fan, not a stock analyst or business valuation expert. I want my sports teams to be owned by someone was willing to spend the money to play with the big boys and give their team a chance to be successful on the field. The Vikings have that kind of ownership. I live in LA and I can tell you that all of the teams here have that kind of ownership (now even the Chargers) and would be toast in the marketplace if they didn't. The Twins deserve that and I just don't think they have it. I was hopeful the new guy in charge would be more competitive and more willing to invest but it sure doesn't look like it.

Posted

Will Baseball Leadership stick around?  I think probably yes.  First of all, they have done enough to bring the Twins organization kicking and screaming into the 21st century, and they have also won enough to earn their continued keep for now.  

The 40 man roster crunch remains.  No.  Not really.  They have a little bit of a 26 man roster crunch but not really a 40 man.  There are certainly guys on the 40 man that can be jettisoned, particularly on the pitching side.  The 26 man is trickier.  

Money Really Was a Big Deal.  Yes it was, times 1000, and it will continue to be..  However, it would be simplistic to assume that it was the only factor.  There weren’t that many names that changed hands at the deadline that were really on my list of desired acquisitions, and the cost prohibition was more about the prospects that would have been required than the money.

Does the wrath of Correa matter?  No.  He’s a really good baseball player and a really smart baseball mind. I’m sure that the front office listens to what he says and takes it under advisement but he ultimately doesn’t sign the checks so the decisions aren’t his to make.  He knows that also.

Roll the dice in October.  THIS.  If you have a reasonable amount of talented players (the Twins do), you can go through a hot streak where most everything seems to go right.  Neither of the Twins two World Series championship teams were teams for the ages, especially not 1987.  They won because they had good chemistry, played well at the right time, and the other pieces fell into place.  Acquiring Tarik Skubel would have been awesome and really made a difference, but he didn’t get traded to anyone, let alone us, a team in the division so we can stop crying about that.  Let’s get to the playoffs and play some October baseball.   I plan to enjoy it while rooting for the Twins to win.  

 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is not a Falvey/Lavine issue.
This is not a Correa issue.

Ownership was ready to sink the ship?  Ownership is actively SINKING the ship.

Plausible scenario over the next 12 months:
Falvey and Lavine jump ship, cheaper, lesser qualified "yes" man gets hired
Correa gets traded
Lopez gets traded
Duran gets traded (rumblings about this now)
Twins re-sign with Bally for television
Twins raise ticket prices

How things looking so far?

I think it is reasonable to expect some of these things to occur. I agree with most that Falvey, Lavine, and Rocco probably all could find similar jobs around the league. They are almost here until they don't want to be. 

 

I wouldn't expect all three of Lopez, Correa, and Duran to get traded but I would not be shocked if Duran and one of Lopez/Correa were moved. Duran is still a sell high in some regards as is Lopez. Correa would be selling low to some degree, but maybe not if he gets back and produces over the rest of the year. If Festa looks good along side Ober and Ryan, Lopez becomes a more viable move.

Posted
6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Which specific players that were traded did the Twins not go after due to financial constraints? 

It seems like almost any player that would have required payroll additions were not pursued. That is based upon the Twins only adding one player at a very minimal cost. I believe it is a more plausible explanation than a Twins were pursuing several players and just couldn't get any deals done while several other teams were. 

 

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Which specific players that were traded did the Twins not go after due to financial constraints? 

I was hoping for some help to get us to chase down Cleveland.    However, when I look at the prices paid for some of those dealt, with many being rentals.    I think it may have been worse then no deal at all.  The players like Margot, Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez weren't wanted.    The price for Scott, Kukuchi and others was very high - and I think would have had the ire of everyone here for making those trades that most likely would have included the likes of Raya, Festa, Kuechel, Julian, Miranda, etc.   The Padres emptied the gun with Scott and Houston overpaid for Kukuchi.   Scubal, Chrochet weren't traded and the Twins weren't going to get the White Sox or Tigers to deal them within the division.    Now to push to the postseason and see what happens.    

Posted

I agree that Falvey and Levine have done a decent enough job building a farm system that seems to be bearing fruit. IMO that's why ownership is trying to cut payroll. Why pay a bunch of guys several million when you can put fairly decent players out there for league minimum? I fear they are going to try TB model and trade off expensive stars for prospects, keeping the payroll at a minimum. I am starting to think they really don't care that much how many loyal fans they have. so long as they make a buck!

Posted

On the one hand, as someone reading this site you are likely a committed fan of the Pohlads' family bizniz here and this is more or less how it almost always is. It's infuriating, but if you expected otherwise, you are Charlie Brown and you haven't figured out that Lucy pulls the football out every single time. On the other hand, I'm not sure there was anything on offer that was worth the asking price to the Twins. We're not the Orioles where it looks like we have a great chance to win the 2024 World Series. We actually do have a chance, but it's not a great bet. I actually don't think this was the year to roll the dice and trade away a lot of prospect value.

Posted
Just now, singlesoverwalks said:

On the one hand, as someone reading this site you are likely a committed fan of the Pohlads' family bizniz here and this is more or less how it almost always is. It's infuriating, but if you expected otherwise, you are Charlie Brown and you haven't figured out that Lucy pulls the football out every single time. On the other hand, I'm not sure there was anything on offer that was worth the asking price to the Twins. We're not the Orioles where it looks like we have a great chance to win the 2024 World Series. We actually do have a chance, but it's not a great bet. I actually don't think this was the year to roll the dice and trade away a lot of prospect value.

Ever green post. 

Posted

I think we're just being entirely unfair to ownership. Do we expect them not to be able to make 25 million dollars a year on top of the appreciation of the franchise itself, for an additional $100 million or so. 

We should just all be grateful our benevolent billionaire class has finally decided we should be allowed to watch the games at home. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

On the one hand, as someone reading this site you are likely a committed fan of the Pohlads' family bizniz here and this is more or less how it almost always is. It's infuriating, but if you expected otherwise, you are Charlie Brown and you haven't figured out that Lucy pulls the football out every single time. On the other hand, I'm not sure there was anything on offer that was worth the asking price to the Twins. We're not the Orioles where it looks like we have a great chance to win the 2024 World Series. We actually do have a chance, but it's not a great bet. I actually don't think this was the year to roll the dice and trade away a lot of prospect value.

The Charlie Brown quote is 100% on point.

Optics is always part of the issue.  I don't think Twins fans were expecting a complete go-for-broke approach this deadline (or entire season).  But even spending $5-7 million here could have gone a long way towards making the team better and re-building some goodwill with the fan base.

Posted

@Ted Schwerzler  just to note, Levine DID pursue the Red Sox opportunity, but the Red Sox quickly eliminated him. He didn't get a 2nd round interview.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/red-sox-baseball-ops-search-narrows-as-twins-gm-eliminated-from-mix.html

That aside, the Pohlads have really screwed fans this year. I mean, yeah. What can you say? While I don't think the Twins' ownership is bottom 5, they certainly were this year. Right there with the White Sox, Angels, Rockies, Marlins. Their moves reek of incompetence and poor business management skills.

There are some commenters who still defend the Pohlads cutting payroll, and I was fine with the cut during the offseason. I believe, and still do, there was sufficient payroll to build a team without the glaring weakness (ace) we currently have. Falvey decided to add depth, depth and more depth. His prerogative. That said, it's wholly inappropriate for ownership to kneecap the GM in the playoff scenario we're currently facing.

1. Reduction of payroll after a positive operating income last year.
2. Keeping Dave St. Peter in charge when he's failed year after year after year to understand his market and improve attendance, in essence, blaming the fans for not attending rather than holding failed management accountable.
3. Reckless and damaging public statements from ownership and executive leadership. ("Right size" 'She'll rock the dress' "surprised and disappointed we haven't drawn better", "we're not in the market for those players", "you see that with the... Orioles...")
4. A complete about-face on how the Twins are planning to operate. Shifting from mid-market to small market while having just entered into big, long term contracts which make such a shift virtually impossible.
5. Increasing ticket prices, understanding the product had enhanced value, but failing to invest after asking fans to improve investment.
6. Throwing their popular broadcasters under the bus like Bremer and Provus.
7. Doubling down with Diamond Sports for a TV deal and the absolute disaster which unfolded as a result.
7. Failing to take responsibility for business decisions which led to decreased fan attendance and knee capping the front office to make needed improvements at the deadline.

The Pohlads do not understand what they're doing. It's clear they've chosen the wrong voice "Joe" to lead the team through such an unstable course, and they've completely misjudged the fanbase's attitude.

Posted

Not much for top 100 Prospects being traded this year so teams understand the value those type of players have.  Baltimore had the assets to get a big deal done and didn't pull the trigger.  

I think for smaller market teams doing deals for deadline players it's hard to take on a higher salaried player and lose potential cost controlled players in the process.  With Correa, Lopez and Buxton taking up a good chunk of payroll it feels like those players salaries make it harder to fit higher salaries in at the deadline.  Couple that with the up in the air TV revenue and maybe the money just isn't there for the Twins?  Hard to say since we are not privy to the numbers, but the Twins aren't the only ones who operate this way,

This year I wasn't all that interested in around the edges type of players.  If the Twins were going to deal for a top of the rotation arm I could have gotten behind that, but Kikuchi wasn't that type of arm IMO. I would have liked to try harder for a better lefty reliever, but I suppose being burned by the Lopez deal had them second guessing pen arms that cost high end assets.

I am ok with what they did at the deadline.  For this team to go anywhere the guys they have, have to play well to get to the playoffs.  I believe in the players they have and if they get hot we've seen they can have a high end offense. We've seen excellent starting pitching at times and we've seen the pen be dominant in stretches If they can put it all together at the right time I think this team can beat anyone,

We'll see how all these moves shake out the next two months,

Posted
6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree that Falvey and Levine have done a decent enough job building a farm system that seems to be bearing fruit. IMO that's why ownership is trying to cut payroll. Why pay a bunch of guys several million when you can put fairly decent players out there for league minimum?

This is always an interesting thought.  The question is whether any of those vaunted prospects will develop into real stars or not.  On paper (and that's a terrible place to play baseball), we have Correa and young pieces in place in the infield all the way around.  In the outfield, we have Buxton and then several potential future players in Wallner, E-Rod, Jenkins, etc.  If some of the young pitchers are good, that could be covered as well.  The problem is that that almost never happens.  Prospects can and do fail all the time.  It will take those young players, and then trades from the surplus spots or free agent pickups to put a championship level team in place.  The trick is to know which ones will be great and which ones won't. 

We as fans send ridiculous mixed signals when we declare that we definitely want/need the team to be aggressive and trade for (insert name of established star player here), but yet we consider the prospects that might get it done to be untouchable.  We clutch our pearls when anybody talks about trading guys like Lewis, Lee, E-Rod, or Jenkins.  They could be immensely valuable  . . . until they aren't. Would you include one of them in a trade for Skubel?  I would.   What if we had traded Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton at peak prospect value?  Would we be better off?   Buxton (maybe?), Sano (likely.)  Could they trade Duran, who is at a relatively high value?  Why not?  It ALWAYS depends on the return.  Would you have traded a young Rod Carew?  No way, but wait a minute. . . what if the return was Johnny Bench or some other HOF'er?  Unfortunately as a GM things aren't that straightforward and you have to make some good choices to succeed, but sometimes you really do have to try to guess right as much as you can. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:


1. Reduction of payroll after a positive operating income last year.
2. Keeping Dave St. Peter in charge when he's failed year after year after year to understand his market and improve attendance, in essence, blaming the fans for not attending rather than holding failed management accountable.
3. Reckless and damaging public statements from ownership and executive leadership. ("Right size" 'She'll rock the dress' "surprised and disappointed we haven't drawn better", "we're not in the market for those players", "you see that with the... Orioles...")
4. A complete about-face on how the Twins are planning to operate. Shifting from mid-market to small market while having just entered into big, long term contracts which make such a shift virtually impossible.
5. Increasing ticket prices, understanding the product had enhanced value, but failing to invest after asking fans to improve investment.
6. Throwing their popular broadcasters under the bus like Bremer and Provus.
7. Doubling down with Diamond Sports for a TV deal and the absolute disaster which unfolded as a result.
7. Failing to take responsibility for business decisions which led to decreased fan attendance and knee capping the front office to make needed improvements at the deadline.

The Pohlads do not understand what they're doing. It's clear they've chosen the wrong voice "Joe" to lead the team through such an unstable course, and they've completely misjudged the fanbase's attitude.

I understand and agree with some of your frustration.  I think you are wrong if you think that there aren't many team owners that have done these same things (or obviously similar with different names).  I don't like it, but they own the team so they get to call the shots.  I think they are roughly middle of the pack as owners over the years, with some real flashes like the Correa signing, and some real turds with the offseason budget cuts.  It's hard to call the Pohlads incompetent.  They have managed to keep the team mostly competitive , with a couple of WS championships, for more than 40 years.  We may not be satisfied as fans, but I think that's true of more fan bases than you think.  Where the Twins dropped the ball the hardest was in failing to capitalize on some good feelings after last year's playoffs to keep fans excited for the next year (2024).  The PR associated with those decisions was absolutely atrocious. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I understand and agree with some of your frustration.  I think you are wrong if you think that there aren't many team owners that have done these same things (or obviously similar with different names).  I don't like it, but they own the team so they get to call the shots.  I think they are roughly middle of the pack as owners over the years, with some real flashes like the Correa signing, and some real turds with the offseason budget cuts.  It's hard to call the Pohlads incompetent.  They have managed to keep the team mostly competitive , with a couple of WS championships, for more than 40 years.  We may not be satisfied as fans, but I think that's true of more fan bases than you think.  Where the Twins dropped the ball the hardest was in failing to capitalize on some good feelings after last year's playoffs to keep fans excited for the next year (2024).  The PR associated with those decisions was absolutely atrocious. 

I thought I made it clear I was talking about this year in specific. If you feel they're running things competently this year, I'd have to say we're not going to find any common ground worth noting.

Posted

Twins are not a player or two away from winning World Series. Sellers market this year, price was too high for players that may have helped Twins. Twins have a good farm system, ranked #3 by Bleacher Report. Twins can't buy their way to playoffs, WS, have to develop their own talent. With that said, likely could have at least got solid LH reliever without mortgaging the future. 

Posted

Ive abstained from reading most TD Comments because of the Doom and Gloom, (justified in many aspects tbh), but I am someone who moves on right away from an action, positive or negative, and look to the next step.

Any SP brought in had to beat the Dobnak Bar AND, (this part is important) cost the appropriate players/prospects in return.

The SP who would have justified that cost were not moved.  JF of Detroit maybe but Detroit was probably never sending to the Twins without a treasure chest sent back.

I think Toronto hoodwinked Texas, but Tampa did great business.

All that business Tampa did wasn't really going to come the Twins way when you look at what Tampa received.

That said I am OK with the pitching at the moment.  Its not Great, but it's not Horrible either.

Ober is quietly having a good year despite his initial shellacking he took.

Ryan is also having a quality year.

I am looking forward to seeing more Festa and hopefully seeing Zebby on the Big Twins.  Also very curious to see what RandyD turns out giving us.

So lets get behind out players and stop beating them up.  Its not as though they aren't trying, (yes I'm talking about you JButler).  The Guardians are still gettable, so lets go get 'em.

Posted
1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Non on'e really crapping on the players, the back end bullpen guys excluded. Most everyone is criticizing the management and ownership. 

Correct, not so much in this thread, but other Twins Daily threads they do.

Posted
27 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

Twins are not a player or two away from winning World Series. Sellers market this year, price was too high for players that may have helped Twins. Twins have a good farm system, ranked #3 by Bleacher Report. Twins can't buy their way to playoffs, WS, have to develop their own talent. With that said, likely could have at least got solid LH reliever without mortgaging the future. 

Ever green post. It's never the right year for the Twins apparently. 

Posted
1 hour ago, singlesoverwalks said:

I actually don't think this was the year to roll the dice and trade away a lot of prospect value.

They didn't have to trade away a lot, just a little. A few prospects they probably won't miss and $5M would have brought the help they needed the most. Why is it Arizona, Seattle, Kansas City and Milwaukee can do this but not the Twins?

Posted
1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I thought I made it clear I was talking about this year in specific. If you feel they're running things competently this year, I'd have to say we're not going to find any common ground worth noting.

You kind of have to take the long view on team ownership.  They stick around much longer than relief pitchers.  Would I have done some things differently this year?  Absolutely but then again I don’t have the same information nor the same size checkbook, and ultimately no influence over their decisions.  

Posted

The argument can be made for and against deadline moves and what the appropriate payroll level should be. I agree with all that the ownership should invest to make the team better when there is chance to go deep in the postseason. 
Given what was available and the costs for those players, compared to internal options, maybe the better choice was to stand pat. Like the medical hippocratic oath says, “first do no harm” (or something like that). Based on the trades from past deadlines, this FO moves haven’t improved the team. 
They have internal SP options and it sounds like Topa is working his way back. Festa and Thielbar looked good last night. If Thielbar regains some of his old form, he fills the late inning lefty role. Festa, Dobnak, and Varland, maybe even Matthews can fill the SP holes short-term. I say let this team gos as far as it can, with help from internal pieces. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I understand and agree with some of your frustration.  I think you are wrong if you think that there aren't many team owners that have done these same things (or obviously similar with different names).  I don't like it, but they own the team so they get to call the shots.  I think they are roughly middle of the pack as owners over the years, with some real flashes like the Correa signing, and some real turds with the offseason budget cuts.  It's hard to call the Pohlads incompetent.  They have managed to keep the team mostly competitive , with a couple of WS championships, for more than 40 years.  We may not be satisfied as fans, but I think that's true of more fan bases than you think.  Where the Twins dropped the ball the hardest was in failing to capitalize on some good feelings after last year's playoffs to keep fans excited for the next year (2024).  The PR associated with those decisions was absolutely atrocious. 

The fumbling of the TV deal alone is Pac 12 football level incompetent. That is a pure financial and business failure which has nothing to do with winning games. Doing this while also attacking and alienating your fan base is not a sign of a middle of the pack owner. At my most generous I would state that the Polhad's are comfortable being a middle of the pack MLB team in terms of wins that will at times, push for the playoffs. 

 

 

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