As Twins Scour for Rotation Improvements, Joe Ryan Emerges as Incumbent Ace

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins went into the offseason, they knew there was a need for more top-tier starting pitching talent. Unfortunately, they didn’t acquire any of that over the winter, but they may have finally gotten Joe Ryan over the hump and into that tier for good.

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

The moment that Joe Ryan was acquired for a shell of Nelson Cruz, it looked like Derek Falvey had made a great deal. In the time since, the former top-100 prospect has developed his game a bit each year, and the results have translated on the field. Now in his fourth big-league season, Ryan looks like the best possible version of himself.

Coming into the year, Rocco Baldelli had a Cy Young hopeful in the form of Pablo López. The former Marlins pitcher had already made the Luis Arráez trade look like a good one, and another step forward would land him among an elite tier of pitchers at the top of the game. Unfortunately, López's season has been marred by poor performances and some bum luck.

The results from López have placed greater importance on the rest of the starting rotation. Simeon Woods Richardson has answered the call, and is among the best rookies in the American League. Bailey Ober has flashed well at times, and looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. With the team needing a Sonny Gray-type performance from 2023, though, it’s been Ryan who has come closest.

After being bitten by home runs to the tune of 1.8 of them per nine innings pitched in 2023, he has cut down the longballs to the tune of a near-career-best 1.3 HR/9. His 3.21 ERA is the lowest of his big-league career, and he has never walked fewer batters. Ryan is still being carried by a fastball that plays up significantly higher than the 93.9 mph it has averaged (though that number, itself, is notably higher than in the past), and his expected statistics suggest that a sub-3.00 ERA is in the cards.

At 2.3 fWAR on the season, Ryan sits among the top 15 pitchers across baseball, and he matches American League Cy Young contender Corbin Burnes. With another 10-strikeout performance over the weekend against the Seattle Mariners, Ryan has a pair of them in 2024. He twirled six such outings a year ago, and more should be coming down the stretch.

When looking ahead to the postseason, Ryan is the type of starter who can be counted on to go out and get the job done. He was given just two innings against the Houston Astros during the American League Division Series in 2023, but will likely earn a longer leash when his name is called upon this season--assuming he can sustain what we've seen so far throughout the second half. He's already gone at least seven innings five different times this year; he did so just four times during the entirety of the 2023 season.

Pitching remains a need for the Twins ahead of the trade deadline, and acquiring someone to bolster the rotation or bullpen should be atop the priority list. Still, Ryan is giving them a welcome anchor around which to build their playoff rotation, in light of the disappointing fact that López hasn't been. Making sure they supplement Ryan, and get López back on track, should be focal points.

Arbitration-eligible for the first time next year, Ryan will earn a nice bump in his salary. Being under team control as he continues to get better is definitely a positive outcome for Minnesota. We'll surely hear some conversations about a contract extension between Ryan and the Twins this autumn and winter, but maybe we should listen for them even sooner.

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[Linus]

Oddly the Twins seem adept at maximizing existing pitchers but poor at drafting and developing them. Anyway Joe has gotten better and his split seems to be a quality pitch. Breaking ball can get better but he is really having a good season. As far as an extension- no chance. I believe he is 27 and has 3.5 years of control left. That means he will be a free agent at 31. Take the good years and thank him for his service. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

I trust Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to start a playoff game.  

Doesn't mean I don't really, REALLY want Jesus Luzardo to join the party.  

But as things stand, if we continue hitting or even get better on offense, we can go far with those three.

[Beast]

Ryan‘s been undoubtedly great.  But, he needs to put a full season together before we call him an ace.

[SwainZag]

17 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

I trust Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to start a playoff game.  

Doesn't mean I don't really, REALLY want Jesus Luzardo to join the party.  

But as things stand, if we continue hitting or even get better on offense, we can go far with those three.

Luzardo's numbers were down across the board before hitting the IL, and since they transferred him to the 60 day IL, the absolute soonest he is eligible to return is August 18th,  The chances he gets moved this year have to be extremely low.

[old nurse]

Cruz had an OPS of .907.  That is not a shell. I know you people don’t claim to be journalists, but really? How hard is it t be a little closer to accurate.. He did nosedive afterwards, but not before the trade 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are probably not looking for starting pitching. Many people on Twins Daily are looking for the Twins to add starting pitching. 

Joe Ryan is really good and still learning.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Cruz had an OPS of .907.  That is not a shell. I know you people don’t claim to be journalists, but really? How hard is it t be a little closer to accurate.. He did nosedive afterwards, but not before the trade 

I didn't see any Cruz slander in the post.  Nelson was having a great season for a very poor Twins club.  Even with his .907 OPS, getting a pitcher of Ryan's quality for a 40 year old pending FA is a good haul.  Of course it looks even better now, but Ryan was a borderline Top 100 prospect with pretty great AAA numbers.

Ryan age 25 and Festa age 24 in AAA:

Ryan: 12 G, 57 IP, 11.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 0.789 WHIP

Festa: 14 G, 59.2 IP, 13.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.77 ERA, 1.291 WHIP

What would be the thoughts about the current Twins adding THAT 40 year old Cruz this year in a trade for Festa?  

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

Luzardo's numbers were down across the board before hitting the IL, and since they transferred him to the 60 day IL, the absolute soonest he is eligible to return is August 18th,  The chances he gets moved this year have to be extremely low.

Can players on the 60 still be traded?  Because sign me up for whatever discount that entails.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are probably not looking for starting pitching. Many people on Twins Daily are looking for the Twins to add starting pitching. 

Joe Ryan is really good and still learning.

"they knew there was a need for more top-tier starting pitching talent."

This was what caught my attention as well. What evidence is there for that other than TwinsDaily articles?

[old nurse]

27 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I didn't see any Cruz slander in the post.  Nelson was having a great season for a very poor Twins club.  Even with his .907 OPS, getting a pitcher of Ryan's quality for a 40 year old pending FA is a good haul.  Of course it looks even better now, but Ryan was a borderline Top 100 prospect with pretty great AAA numbers.

Ryan age 25 and Festa age 24 in AAA:

Ryan: 12 G, 57 IP, 11.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 0.789 WHIP

Festa: 14 G, 59.2 IP, 13.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.77 ERA, 1.291 WHIP

What would be the thoughts about the current Twins adding THAT 40 year old Cruz this year in a trade for Festa?  

“The moment that Joe Ryan was acquired for a shell of Nelson Cruz,” 

Joe Ryan as a prospect at that time was not as highly thought of as Festa. Tampa had 5 other starting pitchers rated higher than Ryan . Would they trade their 6th highest rated pitcher this year for such a hitter? In a heartbeat.

Twins needs for pitching is greater than their need for a hitter would be why that kind of trade would not happen 

[old nurse]

20 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Can players on the 60 still be traded?  Because sign me up for whatever discount that entails.

Luzardo is on a $$m  contract. Even if it is saving some money. Miami is not going to trade him at a discount rate. Obtaining better prospects by other means would cost more . They took 3 lottery tickets and a decent a level prospect for Arraez.. it isn’t like giving up something similar to that would be all that difficult if the Twins wanted Luzardo. 

[Fatbat]

Ryan is starting his prime. I will walk a limb and predict that he gets better and has some very fine years ahead. Probably win a cy young. 

[SwainZag]

51 minutes ago, old nurse said:

“The moment that Joe Ryan was acquired for a shell of Nelson Cruz,” 

Joe Ryan as a prospect at that time was not as highly thought of as Festa. Tampa had 5 other starting pitchers rated higher than Ryan . Would they trade their 6th highest rated pitcher this year for such a hitter? In a heartbeat.

Twins needs for pitching is greater than their need for a hitter would be why that kind of trade would not happen 

Totally missed the part about Cruz being a shell, my mistake!

I was just comparing their ages and numbers, which are/were pretty similar. 

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan as of 7/1
2022 = 3.00 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.56 xFIP (39% fly balls + 16% Popups, 28% GB, 16% LD)
2023 = 3.44 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (38% fly balls + 10% Popups, 34% GB, 18% LD)
2024 = 3.21 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.34 xFIP (27% fly balls + 19% Popups, 34% GB, 20% LD)

The rest of the season
2022 = 4.00 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.17 xFIP
2023 = 6.09 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 3.78 xFIP
2024 = ?

Unlike last year, and the year prior, Ryan's xFIP is right in line with his actual results this year suggesting major regression isn't necessarily expected. He's allowing far fewer true fly balls so far this year by exchanging them for more popups, while giving up a few more line drives.

Personally, I expected the wheels to start coming off Ryan's season already, but he's been very good no matter how you slice it. Typically, how things have gone is Ryan changes up his pitches, gets by for a couple months, and then scouting reports get out and hitters tee off. Ryan's fastball is about as effective as previous years, but his splitter now at 88mph vs. 83mph last year, has played up a great deal. Ryan now has an offspeed pitch which has been valuable in addition to his fastball, and that seems to be the secret for him so far this year.

[wabene]

The glaring issue missed in the article is the annual Joe Ryan swoon. He does look determined to change that narrative and as mentioned that split sure looks good along with the ever increasing velocity and stamina. I like his chances.

[Major League Ready]

On 7/1/2024 at 9:43 PM, old nurse said:

Luzardo is on a $$m  contract. Even if it is saving some money. Miami is not going to trade him at a discount rate. Obtaining better prospects by other means would cost more . They took 3 lottery tickets and a decent a level prospect for Arraez.. it isn’t like giving up something similar to that would be all that difficult if the Twins wanted Luzardo. 

I am a little confused.   You point out Miami is not selling low on Luzardo.  He is under control until 2027.  They can bring him back and reestablish his value for an off-season trade or even wait until the deadline next year and still get a haul.   So, why would they trade him for a "decent prospect" and some lottery tickets?  

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are probably not looking for starting pitching. Many people on Twins Daily are looking for the Twins to add starting pitching. 

Joe Ryan is really good and still learning.

At this point, barring an injury, I don't think they are actively looking for any more starting pitching either. Maybe another good arm in the bullpen, but I think the starting rotation is pretty much set. That said, the health and productivity of Paddock remains a question mark. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I am a little confused.   You point out Miami is not selling low on Luzardo.  He is under control until 2027.  They can bring and reestablish his value for an off-season trade or even wait until the deadline next year and still get a haul.   So, why would they trade him for a "decent prospect" and some lottery tickets?  

My point was the haul they got for Arráez with 2 seasons of control left was large in number but on the surface looks weak, this regime may take a haul of players they like that are suspect. Arraez is similar in years of control left. With a bat he is a much better player than Luzardo is as a pitcher. That suspect pitcher occasionally learns control and doesn’t walk a batter an inning and becomes a Luis Gil 6 years later. That is probably why they take the high risk, high reward players.

discount rate warm bodies, retail rate 3 players with perceived upside and a warm body

[Whitey333]

Ryan has been very good.  An ace?  Not yet.  He needs to do this for the whole season.  But he has been their best starter this season.  Lopez has been a disappointment so far.  The Twins definitely need Lopez from last year if we are to be serious playoff contenders.

[Doctor Gast]

Ryan is a very good SP. He's dominant against KC & losing teams. I also wouldn't give too much credence on his performance against SEA whose hitters lead the leagues in SOs. And he gets intimidated by dominating teams. Pablo will go through his yearly readjustment & come out on top. We have a rotation that takes us to the dance. We'll be facing dominating teams in the playoffs, Will Ryan rise to the occasion? IMO he will one day but I'm not convinced he is now.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

The glaring issue missed in the article is the annual Joe Ryan swoon. He does look determined to change that narrative and as mentioned that split sure looks good along with the ever increasing velocity and stamina. I like his chances.

He also got injured last season and tried to hide it/play through it. which was a dumb mistake but the sort of one that at least has a good mentality behind it. But it seems unlikely he'd eff up like that again.

He's doing very well this season, and I was pleased to see him handle the early baserunners against Seattle in his last start. 3 starts with a Game Score more than 70, 9 starts with a Game Score more than 60. Only 4 with a Game Score under 50. That's a playoff caliber starter to me.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

I trust Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to start a playoff game.  

Doesn't mean I don't really, REALLY want Jesus Luzardo to join the party.  

But as things stand, if we continue hitting or even get better on offense, we can go far with those three.

I wanted Luzardo last year, badly, instead of Lopez……be careful what you wish for…. in ‘24 Luzardo is 3-6 with a 5.00ERA & he’s on the 60 day IL!!!

PASS

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ryan is a very good SP. He's dominant against KC & losing teams. I also wouldn't give too much credence on his performance against SEA whose hitters lead the leagues in SOs. And he gets intimidated by dominating teams. Pablo will go through his yearly readjustment & come out on top. We have a rotation that takes us to the dance. We'll be facing dominating teams in the playoffs, Will Ryan rise to the occasion? IMO he will one day but I'm not convinced he is now.

Seems to continually be getting better - between the ears & with command - can’t change his stuff. With his low walk rate %, if he keeps HR’s down, he’s tough to get many runs off of as an opponent.

He’s pitched well before against good line-ups, maybe not recently. I do think his mind is better - he expects to succeed now. I think that’s big.

[LambchoP]

Ryans been good, not so much against playoff teams though, same as our other starters. I think we've got a good enough rotation to get us a wild card spot, but a quick exit is likely. We need a number 1-2 type starter to go with Ryan and Lopez. Being it's such a sellers market, the prices to aquire starting pitching this deadline will be way to high for the twins. I expect one or two bullpen additions if anything. Hopefully next off-season we can hit on a free agent SP.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ryan is a very good SP. He's dominant against KC & losing teams. I also wouldn't give too much credence on his performance against SEA whose hitters lead the leagues in SOs. And he gets intimidated by dominating teams. Pablo will go through his yearly readjustment & come out on top. We have a rotation that takes us to the dance. We'll be facing dominating teams in the playoffs, Will Ryan rise to the occasion? IMO he will one day but I'm not convinced he is now.

He has pitched against the playoff teams he would expect to face this year.  He gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against Cleveland, they got all 3 on a 3 run HR.  It was his second game of year. He faced Yankees, best offense in league, or 1 run behind Baltimore for most runs scored at least, and gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings pitched, not good, but not wheels falling off.  He has faced other top half offense teams and done well.  

Is he a lock down Ace, no, but I would trust him this year in a playoff game.  He clearly has worked on his other pitches. 

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, Trov said:

He has pitched against the playoff teams he would expect to face this year.  He gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against Cleveland, they got all 3 on a 3 run HR.  It was his second game of year. He faced Yankees, best offense in league, or 1 run behind Baltimore for most runs scored at least, and gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings pitched, not good, but not wheels falling off.  He has faced other top half offense teams and done well.  

Is he a lock down Ace, no, but I would trust him this year in a playoff game.  He clearly has worked on his other pitches. 

Agreed. I think he’s just more experienced and better pitch to pitch between his ears.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

He also got injured last season and tried to hide it/play through it. which was a dumb mistake but the sort of one that at least has a good mentality behind it. But it seems unlikely he'd eff up like that again.

He's doing very well this season, and I was pleased to see him handle the early baserunners against Seattle in his last start. 3 starts with a Game Score more than 70, 9 starts with a Game Score more than 60. Only 4 with a Game Score under 50. That's a playoff caliber starter to me.

No, he turned into a crybaby unable to take responsibility for his performances last year; instead blaming a tightness in his groin when other teams sent all his pitches into the stands. Mystically, Joe Ryan was the same pitcher when he returned from the "injury" that didn't change his velocity, movement or anything else about his pitches.

Kirilloff is pulling the same BS this year as an excuse for his poor plate performance, and to avoid a AAA stint.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I wanted Luzardo last year, badly, instead of Lopez……be careful what you wish for…. in ‘24 Luzardo is 3-6 with a 5.00ERA & he’s on the 60 day IL!!!

PASS

Man! He's got a 5.00 ERA? That's awful! Luzardo's literally broken back is a little more concerning, of course.

Lopez's 4.88 ERA is miles better. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet!
 

[nicksaviking]

I really like Joe Ryan, and I'm not anticipating a dramatic 2nd half fade this year.

But I still really want another playoff starter. Not a Carl Pavano or Ervin Santana or Michael Pineda; a guy this team knows isn't a post season ace but is willing to settle for to squeak out a playoff berth. I want an actual strikeout-capable, high-upside starter who when you put him on the mound against Max Scherzer or Gerrit Cole you think, OK, maybe we have a reasonable shot here. If Joe Ryan is that too, all the better.

I'm not expecting to get another guy like that, but that's what the goal should be.