Is José Miranda the Twins' Best Option at First Base?

[Cody Schoenmann]

With Royce Lewis returning soon, many who follow the Twins believe the team should give present primary third baseman José Miranda more opportunity at first base. Is the hot-hitting 25-year-old a viable option at first base?

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Twins star third baseman Royce Lewis began a rehab assignment with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints Saturday, joining the squad to face the Toronto Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in beautiful upstate New York. Lewis's return to the diamond indicates that the 24-year-old franchise cornerstone will soon be joining the big-league club, with the expectation that the 2017 first-overall pick will return to form as a steady offensive force at the top of the lineup. The Junipero Serra Catholic High School product's return will be celebrated as a cause for renewed optimism about the lineup. However, Twins' decision-makers will be tasked with deciding which player to remove from the 26-man roster to make room for Lewis.

At first glance, demoting a young position player like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, or Edouard Julien makes the most sense. All three players have minor-league options, and all have struggled to produce offensively for most of May. However, Larnach and Kirilloff have recently provided an uptick in offensive production. Also, Julien has long been regarded as a mainstay in the team's lineup, which could make demoting him an uncomfortable blow for him and the team.

The team could also designate a struggling veteran player like Manuel Margot, Carlos Santana, or Kyle Farmer for assignment. However, the Twins' front office values having adequate depth and will go to great lengths to keep veterans around. Newfound injury or other unforeseen circumstances could make the club's impending decision moot, but in all likelihood, a tough call is around the corner. However, there is one position player with minor league options who deserves immunity from the threat of demotion: José Miranda.

Since taking over as the team's near-everyday third baseman in early May, Miranda has hit .279/.313/.467, with 34 hits, five home runs, and four walks over 125 plate appearances and 38 total games. Miranda has generated a 122 wRC+, which places him fourth behind team leaders Ryan Jeffers, Max Kepler, and Carlos Correa. Despite exhibiting shaky defense at third base, the 25-year-old has become one of the team's most well-rounded hitters, reverting to the player he was during his breakout 2022 campaign, wherein he hit .268/.325/.426 with 119 hits, 15 home runs, and 28 walks over 483 plate appearances and 125 games.

The Twins and those who follow the team have welcomed Miranda's early career renaissance with open arms. However, no matter how much Miranda produces at the plate, third base will rightfully be handed back to Lewis once he returns from the IL. Lewis's immediate insertion into the hot corner doesn't mean Miranda needs to lose at-bats or get demoted to Triple-A St. Paul. Yet, figuring out where to play the hot-hitting right-handed bat will present a unique challenge for Twins decision-makers. Miranda could naturally slot in as the designated hitter against left-handed starting pitchers, though the team will face right-handed starting pitchers considerably more often.

Miranda could play third base when Lewis needs a day off or is the designated hitter. Both avenues are natural fits, yet neither would present a meaningful opportunity for the former second-round pick to continue contributing to the Twins' inconsistent and often stagnant offense.

Interestingly, ample opportunity could present itself at first base. According to Baseball Reference's spreadsheet showing position-by-position performance for each team, the Twins rank 18th in MLB at first base with -0.5 Wins Above Average (WAA). Most of the team's production at first base has come from the duo of Santana (177 plate appearances) and Kirilloff (32 plate appearances). Miranda generated four plate appearances at the position, having played 8 1/3 innings while starting against the Baltimore Orioles on April 17. Nevertheless, the stereotypically offensively rich position has left much to be desired for Minnesota, and Miranda could provide production--something the relatively lifeless duo of Santana and Kirilloff have yet to achieve this season.

Miranda has long been considered a defensive liability at third, who needed to produce huge numbers offensively to justify playing significant time at the hot corner. Interestingly, despite being a lackluster defender at third base, Miranda is perceived as a worse defender at first base. As rare as that is, his advanced metrics match the eye test. In 2022, Miranda had 154 attempts at first base. In these attempts, he managed a 71% success rate against a 74% estimated (expected) success rate, resulting in -4 Outs Above Average at Baseball Savant (OAA). In contrast, he had 91 attempts at third base, resulting in a 62% success rate and 61% estimated success rate, earning 1 OAA.

Miranda played only 2 1/3 innings at first base in 2023, leaving us nothing to analyze. However, his performance at third base dropped precipitously, garnering a 71% success rate against a 76% estimated success rate, resulting in an uninspiring -6 OAA over 109 attempts. Admittedly, Miranda did have a significant shoulder injury that limited his ability to throw and ultimately required the Puerto Rican native to undergo surgery. Yet, despite fully recovering from that issue, Miranda is still struggling at third base, generating a 65% success rate and a 69% estimated success rate. Miranda's performance at third base has earned him -3 OAA through 71 attempts.

With Miranda being one of the most stable and well-rounded offensive contributors on the team, Lewis nearing a highly anticipated return from the 10-day IL, and Santana and Kirilloff leaving much to be desired out of first base, the Twins ought to give Miranda a real chance at first base, even though they've been reluctant to play him at the position. Santana's excellent glove work could allow them to get him into games late for defense, after Miranda's superior bat gives the team a lead with which to work.

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How would you distribute Miranda's playing time upon Lewis's reinstatement, positionally? Who should get the boot from the roster in the process? Sound off below.

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[Patzky]

If he can hit they'll find a place for him. I like the idea of removing a veteran (Farmer, Margot) over sending Kirilloff or Julien back down but the team historically won't do that. Santana has played an awful lot.. there must be room for Miranda there when he isn't DH. 

[terrydactyls]

How about taking some time before every game to teach Miranda the proper footwork and positioning?  As a former first baseman, I know that the position is more difficult than most people think it is.  BUT, Miranda is a professional baseball player and I firmly believe that he can pick up the position to an adequate degree.  And having someone who can hit the ball playing at first would significantly upgrade the Twins.

[In My La Z boy]

Great write up. I agree Miranda needs to stay in the lineup. I also agree it's too early for the Twins to ditch a veteran, although I wish they would. Makes sense to remove Farmer from the roster when Lewis comes back based on today's performance and club needs, but they won't. Julian is the weak link right now. Taking way too many called strike 3's and hasn't made the adjustments Larnach seems to have made to the offspeed pitches.
I'd like to see Larnach given LF, Kirilloff given 1B, and Miranda given DH for now and see what happens. If Julian doesn't turn this around he's going to go back to AAA at some point. He isn't a world class defender to be hitting .210 and have a place in the every day lineup in my opinion. Still waiting on him but another month like May and he'll be in St Paul by July. 

[DJL44]

Play Miranda at 3B when Lewis is the DH, at 1B against RHP and at DH vs LHP. There will be plenty of opportunities for Santana to enter the game in the late innings as a pinch hitter against LH relievers and take over at 1B for defensive purposes.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Play Miranda at 3B when Lewis is the DH, at 1B against RHP and at DH vs LHP. There will be plenty of opportunities for Santana to enter the game in the late innings as a pinch hitter against LH relievers and take over at 1B for defensive purposes.

Who goes down? 

My vote is DFA Margot or trade or DFA Santana....

[Karbo]

Put Miranda at 1B against RH, let AK or Larnach DH, Against LH Santana at 1B with Miranda DH.

[Doctor Gast]

I am a firm believer that Miranda should have had the 1B job together with Kiriloff & Julien and have him playing there throughout spring training to firm up our 1B position, I'm a firm believer in all our players & was against almost all the new acquisitions that took up playing time & even roster spots of our in-house players. Miranda could be our full-time platoon 1B but because of Santana he'll also need to play some DH & 3B to fill out his ABs 

[LambchoP]

They'll find somewhere for him to play if he keeps hitting. Wasn't Miranda a 2nd baseman in the minors? Maybe have him take over for Julien for awhile, give him a reset at AAA. I do think the twins need to spend some money and finally get a long term, power hitting 1baseman

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I am a firm believer that Miranda should have had the 1B job together with Kiriloff & Julien and have him playing there throughout spring training to firm up our 1B position, I'm a firm believer in all our players & was against almost all the new acquisitions that took up playing time & even roster spots of our in-house players. Miranda could be our full-time platoon 1B but because of Santana he'll also need to play some DH & 3B to fill out his ABs 

Agreed. 

[Jocko87]

It isn't hard to imagine getting him 5-6 games and pinch hit chances a week without any 2nd base nonsense. He ain't playing 2nd and Julien is a serious consideration to send down.

Castro and Farmer can cover 2nd and Lewis probably DHs once and sits once a week, at least in the short term. Then a day or two at first as AK is playing more left field.

If he's hitting, they can make it work.

[Dave The Dastardly]

DFA both Margot and Farmer. Forget this "veterans for depth" crap. If you want depth, develop it by giving our young prospects adequate playing time at the major league level. Cheaper and more oriented to the future.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

It isn't hard to imagine getting him 5-6 games and pinch hit chances a week without any 2nd base nonsense. He ain't playing 2nd and Julien is a serious consideration to send down.

Castro and Farmer can cover 2nd and Lewis probably DHs once and sits once a week, at least in the short term. Then a day or two at first as AK is playing more left field.

If he's hitting, they can make it work.

100% agreed. I was actually going to type this. I'm a Julien fan but I think a reset until an injury occurs would do him good. His improvement on defense has been great as he is no longer taken out. Miranda is. But Miranda's bat is too good not to play. He looks like the Miranda from 2022. Too bad his defense hasn't improved much.

[bean5302]

The best option is to play Jose Miranda at 1B every day. No platoons. There's no need to platoon him since he hits righties just fine. Miranda needs the reps at a static every day position. He's played a grand total of 126 games at 1B between MLB and MiLB, and that's not nearly enough to settle in. Even Joe Mauer struggled with 1B while learning on the job over his first year.

Jose Miranda moves to full time 1B, Carlos Santana can move to PH/DH, and Margot gets DFA'd. That's how it should play out, but it won't.

What will happen is Alex Kirilloff will get demoted, Jose Miranda will move to primary DH and Santana will stay right where he is.

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who goes down? 

My vote is DFA Margot or trade or DFA Santana....

I would DFA Margot. He's the most easily replaceable. I would rank Farmer ahead of the AAA players (Kemp, Prato, Helman) on the organizational depth chart but not Margot (Martin is better). Plus, I like Castro in the OF more than the IF.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

If he can hit they'll find a place for him. I like the idea of removing a veteran (Farmer, Margot) over sending Kirilloff or Julien back down but the team historically won't do that. Santana has played an awful lot.. there must be room for Miranda there when he isn't DH. 

I would like to see Margot get DFA'd as Kiriloff can play the OF.    However, I could see a trade of Larnach/Kiriloff/Wallner happening as well.

[IndianaTwin]

Though Miranda has played only 10.2 innings at 1B for the Twins this season and last, he did play five of his six defensive games at 1B in St. Paul, which suggests that may be where the Twins see him as more viable. I would imagine he'll get at least some run at 1B when Lewis is back. Though it wouldn't be popular, I could also see them sending him down for a week or so to specifically work at 1B.

Personally, I'd send down Julien for the reset, assuming that Farmer and Castro can handle 2B until an injury happens. I don't see Miranda playing 2B, however, with Lee also on the doorstep. 

[jmlease1]

Maybe Margot or Farmer will get the "Sore Back" stint on the IL if everyone else is still healthy when Lewis comes back? (old NBA roster manipulation trick) 

Margot makes sense to DFA because he's not hitting and his defense has been worse than advertised by a fair bit, but it would leave us a little bit thin at OF on the active roster. Farmer makes sense to DFA because his role is diminished, he's not hitting, he's at the age where he's less likely to recover, and it would be an INF for INF swap.

But Miranda is showing the bat that got him up here in the first place and having him as another RH bat on the roster makes sense. Santana has recovered enough from his horrid start (and is hitting LHP better than either Margot or Farmer) that dropping him isn't as appealing as it was in mid-April when he looked washed. Santana is taking good ABs again, drawing walks, etc. 

but Miranda deserves to stay. He's earned it, he's healthy again, and while he's been better against LHP, he's still been quality against RHP; his splits are way smaller than someone like Margot.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with the posters that think Miranda should be the primary 1B option 3-4 days a week, at 3B 1-2 days a week for Lewis, and an occasional DH. Basically playing 5-6 days a week. I also agree that the Twins (over)value Santana's defense and it isn't likely that Miranda will get an every day run at 1B. The DH spot is a little crowded so its hard to fond room. 

How about LF? I know he's an IF, not an OF, but is there any chance he can play out there? It's not like Kirilloff or Larnach are great defensive OFs and Margot is a relatively slow singles hitter.  Castro may need to see time at 2B if Julien is the move to get Lewis up. Probably a bad idea but I'm wondering if it's worth a shot.   

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with the posters that think Miranda should be the primary 1B option 3-4 days a week, at 3B 1-2 days a week for Lewis, and an occasional DH. Basically playing 5-6 days a week. I also agree that the Twins (over)value Santana's defense and it isn't likely that Miranda will get an every day run at 1B. The DH spot is a little crowded so its hard to fond room. 

How about LF? I know he's an IF, not an OF, but is there any chance he can play out there? It's not like Kirilloff or Larnach are great defensive OFs and Margot is a relatively slow singles hitter.  Castro may need to see time at 2B if Julien is the move to get Lewis up. Probably a bad idea but I'm wondering if it's worth a shot.   

He's played 3 games in the OF his entire career. i think it would be asking a lot to ask him to move out there except in an emergency. 

Larnach is better in the OF than I think most people realize, but the recovery from turf toe isn't helping. I think it's more likely for Castro to spend more time in the OF and Miranda get some chances at 2B. he was moved off SS because he couldn't handle it, but the move to 3B was more about opportunity than him being particularly lacking at 2B. (we've been generating 2B like crazy the last 5 years: Arraez, Julien, Lee, Martin, Steer, Gordon...not to mention Polanco moving over there)

I do think Miranda's future is at 1B/DH. And he does not deserve a demotion.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

How about taking some time before every game to teach Miranda the proper footwork and positioning?  As a former first baseman, I know that the position is more difficult than most people think it is. 

Triple A a good place to do that but right now his bat is over riding glove problems, and the Bigs is not a learning tool.

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Play Miranda at 3B when Lewis is the DH, at 1B against RHP and at DH vs LHP. There will be plenty of opportunities for Santana to enter the game in the late innings as a pinch hitter against LH relievers and take over at 1B for defensive purposes.

Considering the FACT that Santana has been unproductive for the last several years against RHP pitching and especially brutal this season (.183 avg/.599 OPS)--I absolutely agree the time has arrived for Miranda to be a daily fixture in the lineup at 1B against a RH when Lewis returns.  

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Considering the FACT that Santana has been unproductive for the last several years against RHP pitching and especially brutal this season (.183 avg/.599 OPS)--I absolutely agree the time has arrived for Miranda to be a daily fixture in the lineup at 1B against a RH when Lewis returns.  

Santana is here because Kirilloff was a gaping hole in he defense at 1st; MIranda is not better and   Santana is going nowhere.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, RpR said:

Triple A a good place to do that but right now his bat is over riding glove problems, and the Bigs is not a learning tool.

No player comes out of AAA a completely finished product. Players have to learn and adjust at the MLB level.

[#3Killer]

Margot must Go!!!!!!

[LewFordLives]

I wrote this on another page, but to me cutting ties with Santana makes the most sense.  How can you have a 38 year old who provides almost zero offense occupying what has historically been an offense-first position? And if he's not getting time at first, then he has no value to this team.  Do you really want him to just DH and pinch hit?  Margot can at least kind of play the outfield. (Although he should be DFAd in favor of Keirsey.)

As the playoff picture stands right now, the Twins are a bubble team.  If they miss the playoffs by one game will Falvey be able to look in the mirror and say he put out the best team possible on a daily basis?  If they keep giving guys like Santana and Margot at-bats the answer is "no".

[OvertheHill]

Based on what I’ve seen for the first third of the season, Julien needs to go down to St. Paul for a reset. Miranda should get a blend of spelling Lewis at 3rd, and starts at DH and 1B. 

I’m on board with all the posters who put a higher priority on DFAing Margot but I don’t think this FO will do that. 
I believe that Miranda needs to be in the lineup most days, and not Baldelli’d in the 4th or 5th inning every other night like some of our other young hitters. 

[Guest]

In so many articles that consider who must be demoted, or eliminated, it is Margot that is being given the boot. SO IT IS CLEAR, MARGOT IS THE PROBLEM!!!! He must be eliminated and the Twins will have another exceptionally successful season.

[rv78]

So Lewis is a lock at 3B. The FO will not waiver from this in no way, shape, form or reason. ??? Why is this a stubborn and stupid plan? Lewis is probably the most athletic player of.... Miranda, Lewis and Julien. So who would be the best player of the 3 to play in a different position other than what they are used to playing? The answer is the one who is the most athletic. I agree in giving Julien a reset in AAA. When Lewis comes back it would be the perfect time. Let Miranda stay at 3B. Put Lewis at 2B. If a Lewis who has played a ton at SS in the minors cannot handle 2B then moving Polanco there was totally wrong. Is there anyone here that thinks Lewis canNOT play 2B? I doubt it. Let Rocco platoon Kirilloff and Santana to death at 1B. Santana isn't going anywhere just like Gallo had to suck for 2/3rds of a season before they would admit they made a mistake. Santana is version 2 of Gallo, so he's here for the majority of the season whether you like it or not. Margot is the RHanded Outfielder they so coveted going into the season. He like Santana isn't going anywhere. Pick your young player that will get sent down, Larnach, Julien, Kirilloff, or Miranda. The spot won't be opened by a veteran. This FO doesn't operate that way.

[DocBauer]

Once again, I didn't like or dislike the signing of Santana when it happened. I doubted he'd repeat his rebound, age 37 season, but the Twins DID enter the season with some questions about Miranda's and Kirilloff's respective shoulders. So some inexpensive, veteran insurance wasn't a bad idea. My issue was Santana as a primary, almost every day 1B despite being pretty bad against RHP, which you're going to face about 75% of the time. I've always thought he should be hit against LHP, be a defensive replacement, and a veteran PH.

He's not part of the future, while Miranda and AK probably both are. Julien might also figure in some at 1B as well also. But in the interest of fairness, while Santana's overall season numbers are pretty poor, especially for an offensive position like 1B....208/.295/.360/.655, so much for the tough veteran out with power...he has been much, much better the past 30 games: .242/.330/.434/.764 quad slash line.

However, to be continue to be fair, most of that damage was done end of April and first couple of weeks of May. For the past 15 games, his numbers are are even worse than his seasonal ones. So we aren't talking any sort of consistency, just a few good weeks so far. What can we expect going forward for the 37yo veteran? Hard to say. But he's done enough with the bat so far...despite the roller coaster...to earn some more rope to see what he's got.

Healthy again, it looks like Miranda remains part of the future, as well as the present as he's actually been one of the team's top hitters. AK is also, potentially, still part of the future. Like Santana, he's been on a roller coaster of a season. But he's also 11 years younger, so he remains a hopeful part of the future as well. I DON'T believe it's time to call Santana cooked and send him packing. But I do think it might be time to start using the 37yo more as a part time 1B/PH/ and defensive replacement in order to help keep Miranda in the lineup, and possibly Kirilloff as well.