A Narrow Path for José Miranda

[stringer bell]

José Miranda was recalled due to injuries and has played very well. He's almost exclusively played third base and has showed no signs that he surgically repaired shoulder is limiting him. He's hitting .269 with an OPS+ of 113. He's hit left handed pitching well (.847 OPS) and held his own against right handed pitching (.702 OPS). That sounds like a middle-tier regular major league ballplayer.

There won't be a defined place for José to play as soon as Royce Lewis returns (projected next month) to the Twins. I see a very narrow window for him to establish himself as a major league regular. 

#1--Advanced hitting metrics. Miranda's average exit velocity is 87.2 MPH, while his hard-hit rate is 31.9%, both pretty far below MLB average. This doesn't forecast improvement from his current numbers and wouldn't project to any more than average major league power numbers.

#2--Physical limitations--Even with a healthy wing, Miranda has at best an average arm for third base. He has below-average speed and is not an adept base runner.

#3--Low walk numbers. This is a bit of a double edged sword--Miranda has a low strikeout rate, but his walk rate is even further below the mean. Despite a decent batting average, José has only a .307 OBP so far this year and in 749 plate appearances in his career his OBP is .310.

IMHO, José Miranda needs to be a far above average hitter in order to make up for his meh defense at low on the defensive spectrum positions. He has put up slightly above average numbers, but not enough to cancel out his so-so defensive value and lack of foot speed. 

Miranda is only 25 (26 next month) and an adjustment or two might raise his ceiling. In particular, if he could be more selective at the plate, he would get better pitches to hit and hit them hard. If he can develop into a true middle-of-the-order hitter, the Twins or another team would find a place for him to play.

 

[Road trip]

If he stays with the Twins, it'll likely be some combination of 1B and DH, as I doubt Royce moves off of 3B.  For either of those bat-first spots, Miranda's hitting will need to continue to show improvement to be a significant asset.

His likely path to regular playing time may come via a trade to another team that really needs to upgrade their 3B.  His bat will play there, and his defense likely grades as adequate.  While I like Miranda in many respects he could bring back a valuable return to fill any of the Twins many holes.

[FlyingFinn]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

José Miranda needs to be a far above average hitter in order to make up for his meh defense at low on the defensive spectrum positions. He has put up slightly above average numbers, but not enough to cancel out his so-so defensive value and lack of foot speed. 

Kirilloff is making Miranda look good right now. 

Who plays 1B for the Twins in 2025 - Kirilloff, Miranda, Santana, or none of the above? Is Julien actually an option there?

[bean5302]

57 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

...IMHO, José Miranda needs to be a far above average hitter in order to make up for his meh defense at low on the defensive spectrum positions. He has put up slightly above average numbers, but not enough to cancel out his so-so defensive value and lack of foot speed...

 

An averageish defender at 1B is a quality MLB regular at wRC+ 115. I think that's probably where Miranda's going to sit.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with the posters underlying analysis but disagree with the conclusions. The conclusion seems to be that Miranda doesn’t fit with the Twins and should be used as a trade chip. I agree that third base will not be his position once Lewis is back, but how long will Lewis stay healthy, how many more trips to the IL will he need, and what makes us think Lewis is going to play third base more than three or four times a week given his history? I think this team needs Miranda’s bat and needs it in a big way. As stated above, I can easily see him as a 115+ OPS+ guy with average to maybe slightly above average defense at first base. That’s a valuable player and part of the real backbone of any major league team.

Even more importantly, we don’t have anyone else. Carlos Santana is 39 years old and gone after this year. Kirilloff has not shown that he can consistently stay healthy or that he can hit major league pitching. There is no one at AAA that is anywhere near ready to play first base at the major league level. What little free agent money ownership is willing to spend should be spent on pitching. We have a solid MLB hitter in Miranda, who is only 25 years old. He may become a better than a solid MLB hitter over the next couple of years, with really no one challenging him for a spot in the batting order. This is a guy you keep and find a place to play, not a guy You trade unless you’re going to get a better hitter back and why would anyone make that deal unless you put in a significant prospect?
 

Miranda is a guy we need and need to keep. I am frustrated because I know he won’t play 1B regularly as long as Santana is around and I think that’s a mistake. Still, you keep him even if we have to wait until next year to see him play every day. 

[Riverbrian]

Near Future: I don't expect the roster to remain healthy before Royce Lewis gets back. Someone is going to the IL... Don't know who but someone always does so there is decent sized probability that a hard decision doesn't have to made on Miranda.

If the team remains healthy and Royce comes back. I don't believe that a vet will be released to clear 26 man space so it comes down to those with options. Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien. 

Longer Term Future: Short Side Platoon. Unless he starts hitting like an every day guy or the Twins change operational style.    

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, I'd put him at first when Lewis returns and dfa Santana..... But it isn't up to me. I think there is plenty of space for him here. Next year I'm hoping he and Julien play first with Lee at second.... But that's hope, not reality either. 

[nicksaviking]

I like Miranda.

But the Marlins need a 3B and a 1B. And they've already announced that they're sellers. I'd be calling them up about starting pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I like Miranda.

But the Marlins need a 3B and a 1B. And they've already announced that they're sellers. I'd be calling them up about starting pitching.

I wouldn't be opposed, but I kind of like some of the minor league guys right now. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Kirilloff is making Miranda look good right now. 

Who plays 1B for the Twins in 2025 - Kirilloff, Miranda, Santana, or none of the above? Is Julien actually an option there?

Kirilloff - Miranda - left to be a FA - No.

Right now, Julien needs to prove he’s an option anywhere over the next 2-3 weeks. Brooks Lee, if healthy, could be playing regularly at 2B, batting 95% from the left side……,while Julien is trying to “right his approach” in St. Paul. This is from someone who said all winter, “do not consider trading Eddie, his offense & OBP are too difficult to duplicate!!!”

I still think, long-term, it’s Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis playing in a role shared with Kirilloff…..,,Wallner……..Rodriguez, at 1B & LF.

Miranda, if he maintains average or better offense in ‘24, could be depth at 1B - 3B - DH possibly?

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wouldn't be opposed, but I kind of like some of the minor league guys right now. 

David Festa is actually on my mind as a companion piece to move. The Twins have had next to no luck figuring out starting pitchers with control issues. Miami has though.

[bean5302]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kirilloff - Miranda - left to be a FA - No.

Right now, Julien needs to prove he’s an option anywhere over the next 2-3 weeks. Brooks Lee, if healthy, could be playing regularly at 2B, batting 95% from the left side……,while Julien is trying to “right his approach” in St. Paul. This is from someone who said all winter, “do not consider trading Eddie, his offense & OBP are too difficult to duplicate!!!”

I still think, long-term, it’s Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis playing in a role shared with Kirilloff…..,,Wallner……..Rodriguez, at 1B & LF.

Miranda, if he maintains average or better offense in ‘24, could be depth at 1B - 3B - DH possibly?

Brooks Lee already better than Edouard Julien, I see. I mean, worth considering Julien didn't already have major back issues at age 23, and he didn't struggle at AAA. Personally, I view Brooks Lee as a slightly better version of former Twins first rounder and top prospect, Levi Michael at the moment.

[DJL44]

He's replaced Donnie Barrels which is about what I hoped he could do. Similar players.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I still think, long-term, it’s Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis playing in a role shared with Kirilloff…..,,Wallner……..Rodriguez, at 1B & LF.

Royce Lewis is the best infielder of the bunch. You don't put him at 1B if those are your choices.

I would play Lewis at 3B, Lee at 2B and let Julien platoon with Miranda at 1B. That's your best defensive alignment.

[Doctor Gast]

Miranda should be playing if not for us then for someone else. Preferably for us, unless we get a fair offer & Baldelli won't play him enough.

[RpR]

58 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kirilloff - Miranda - left to be a FA - No.

Right now, Julien needs to prove he’s an option anywhere over the next 2-3 weeks. Brooks Lee, if healthy, could be playing regularly at 2B, batting 95% from the left side……,while Julien is trying to “right his approach” in St. Paul. This is from someone who said all winter, “do not consider trading Eddie, his offense & OBP are too difficult to duplicate!!!”

I still think, long-term, it’s Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis playing in a role shared with Kirilloff…..,,Wallner……..Rodriguez, at 1B & LF.

Miranda, if he maintains average or better offense in ‘24, could be depth at 1B - 3B - DH possibly?

AT this point, Lee is wishful thinking who has proven nothing in the Bigs.

Lewis is going nowhere but to 3rd base, he has shown he is a good fielder there so it would be moronic to play musical chairs with him.

Wallner - now looks more like Joey Gallo without the fielding skills, whilst bad-hair Julien's team leading Strike Outs will weigh heavily on his future.

Miranda and Kirilloff -- odds are for Miranda right now with Kirilloff's future being very cloudy.

Santana's fielding skills are needed at First Base, so as of now he is a lock.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Personally, I view Brooks Lee as a slightly better version of former Twins first rounder and top prospect, Levi Michael at the moment.

You're pretty far out there on that limb all by yourself. Be careful it doesn't snap off.

Player HR/G 

Levi Michael 1/18.5

Brooks Lee 1/8

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with the posters underlying analysis but disagree with the conclusions. The conclusion seems to be that Miranda doesn’t fit with the Twins and should be used as a trade chip. 

I made no such conclusion. The point I was making was that given his defensive profile and having at best an average throwing arm and below average running speed in his toolbox, Miranda needs to be quite above average as a hitter to be a top-tier regular.

Additionally, the batted ball data, seems to limit his upside. How  Miranda adjusts will probably determine his future. 

[DocBauer]

I don't know exactly how the rest of the 2024 roster is going to take shape, nor 2025 though I have some ideas, but to me this is one of those issues that usually seems to take care of itself.

Miranda was a rather middling prospect with bat and power potential that suffered from "too much contact" as he was trying to hit everything thrown his way. He finally figured out how to reign himself in and only swing at strikes and he became a very good prospect at age 23 when he did so. He had a really fine ML rookie season in 2022 at age 24. He then completely bottomed out at 25yo in 2023 that seems to have been pretty much related to his shoulder injury. (I've heard reports of great pain). Healthy again, we're starting to see the 2022 version of Miranda again. As of today, Thursday, his quad slash line through 34 games if virtually identical to his 2022 numbers.

Even with outstanding health luck, guys will get hurt, dinged, or just need days off. A 13 man player roster will still need another 3-5 guys to fill in at times during a season as the 26 and 40 man rosters are moved around.

Miranda can play 3B/1B/DH/RHPH, so there's value in what he brings, even if a return of Lewis will cut in to his playing time to some degree the rest of this season. We already pretty much know Farmer, Margot, and Santana will be gone off of next year's roster. Kepler is probably gone as well. We're still not quite sure what we have in Larnach and Kirilloff, though I think most of still have varying degrees of optimism. 

Again, I don't know exactly how the playing time will work out the rest of the year, or how the roster will look next year, but I think there's going to be room for him, and these things just tend to work themselves out.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

AT this point, Lee is wishful thinking who has proven nothing in the Bigs.

Lewis is going nowhere but to 3rd base, he has shown he is a good fielder there so it would be moronic to play musical chairs with him.

Wallner - now looks more like Joey Gallo without the fielding skills, whilst bad-hair Julien's team leading Strike Outs will weigh heavily on his future.

Miranda and Kirilloff -- odds are for Miranda right now with Kirilloff's future being very cloudy.

Santana's fielding skills are needed at First Base, so as of now he is a lock.

Gallo can't field anymore. It's not 2020 anymore. He's a butcher out there.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You're pretty far out there on that limb all by yourself. Be careful it doesn't snap off.

Player HR/G 

Levi Michael 1/18.5

Brooks Lee 1/8

College SS's.
First round picks.
Switch hitters.
Profile as near MLB ready.
Limited athleticism expected to probably push both off SS
Mediocre power.
Lauded hit tools.

Twins fans lost their mind in the hype machines which told them what they wanted to hear.
MLB #7 https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2022,
CBS #7 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-with-no-1-pick-kumar-rocker-to-padres/
Fangraphs #8 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft/

Quote

7. Cubs 
Callis: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (No. 5)
I'm much less bullish on Lee going No. 1 than the rest of the mock draft industrial complex, and while he's in play for seemingly every club, he doesn't seem to be anyone's top choice. The Cubs love Collier but may find it hard to take him ahead of Lee (or Johnson if he gets here). They could take Neto as a money-saver choice or pop the first pitcher with Alabama left-hander Connor Prielipp.

Let's take a look at some Baseball America and Keith Law pre-draft reviews:
Player 1

Quote

xxxx has been the best pure hitter among college prospects this year, running a walk-to-strikeout rate over 2.00 all season and punching out well under 10 percent of the time. He controls the zone well and rarely misses fastballs within it, thanks to exceptional hand-eye coordination. His swing is unorthodox and kind of noisy, with some evident effort, but with all that hip and torso rotation he doesn’t always make the high-quality contact teams are looking for in elite prospects. I don’t think xxxx is a shortstop long term; he has outstanding hands that will play anywhere on the field, but his ankles are thick and he’s a 40 runner, so the lateral agility that position demands may just be beyond his physical ability. Put him at third base and he should be fine. It’s a bet on the bat, and that a pro department can take this foundation of contact skills and help him get to more consistent contact quality; it’s easier to teach someone to hit the ball harder than it is to teach him to hit the ball in the first place. xxxx should be a strong regular who makes some All-Star teams as a third or second baseman, but probably doesn’t project to be a superstar.

xxxx hit .342 to win xxxx co-player of the year as a redshirt freshman and torched the xxxx League with a .405/.432/.677 slash line for xxxx in the summer. He followed with a standout showing for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team and hit .357 with 15 home runs and a 1.125 OPS this spring, all career highs. xxxx is a gifted switch-hitter with exceptional hitting ability. He takes short, balanced swings with elite bat speed from the left side and laces balls hard to all fields. His righthanded swing isn’t as fluid or powerful, but he has the hand-eye coordination to make consistent contact and spray balls around the field. He has elite strike-zone discipline, crushes fastballs and drives pitches in all parts of the zone, projecting as a potential plus-plus hitter. He has rarely faced good breaking stuff and will need to prove he can handle that.

Player 2
 

Quote

xxxx has established himself as the best college shortstop in this year's draft, although the competition for that title wasn't very strong. But as a switch-hitter who can run and has shown he can handle the position he's almost certain to go in the first round.
xxxx has good bat speed and an excellent eye at the plate, producing contact and working the count well. He tends to meet the ball out front rather than letting it travel; between that and his size he doesn't generate much power even with some torque from his hips.
At shortstop, xxxx is solid-average, making routine plays with enough arm but will probably never be plus there. He's a well-above average runner with good feel for the game all around.
There are very few college shortstops this year who project to stay at the position and also project to hit. xxxx does, which puts him at the top of the category.

He missed a couple of games with an ankle injury and was still getting back to 100 percent, but he still showed ability in all facets of the game and was hitting .311/.461/.464 with 14 stolen bases in 15 attempts in 196 at-bats. He is a patient hitter with a good eye for the strike zone from both sides of the plate, with a 43-27 walk-strikeout ratio. He hits to all fields and could hit at the top of the batting order, though he shows pop and is naturally stronger from the right side. He's an above-average runner, though he hadn't quite returned to that level since the injury. Scouts don't view the ankle as a long-term concern.

First appearances over AA through first two seasons (cup of coffee + long season)
Player 1 - 307 PA .294/.365/.473 OPS .839 wRC+ 119, 10.1% BB, 16.0% K
Player 2 - 319 PA .278/.382/.415 OPS .797 wRC+ 130, 11.8% BB, 19.5% K

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I like Miranda.

But the Marlins need a 3B and a 1B. And they've already announced that they're sellers. I'd be calling them up about starting pitching.

Starting pitching prospects or current major leaguers? I'd argue this team needs Miranda's offense this year more than it needs another current major league rotation arm. In my opinion, the offense on this team is a far bigger problem than their rotation. I don't trust this rotation in the playoffs, but I don't trust this offense to even get to the playoffs. Taking a 113 OPS+ bat out of a lineup with 7 guys with 100 or better OPS+ sounds like a bad decision for a team trying to make the playoffs.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Starting pitching prospects or current major leaguers? I'd argue this team needs Miranda's offense this year more than it needs another current major league rotation arm. In my opinion, the offense on this team is a far bigger problem than their rotation. I don't trust this rotation in the playoffs, but I don't trust this offense to even get to the playoffs. Taking a 113 OPS+ bat out of a lineup with 7 guys with 100 or better OPS+ sounds like a bad decision for a team trying to make the playoffs.

This team is pretty mediocre and is living in the dreaded space where they're too talented to give up on the season but not talented enough to advance in the playoffs.

[Linus]

I’m with the bell on this one. Miranda has to really hit to be a regular in this league as he doesn’t offer much else. He could take on the right handed bench bat next year but there is no I would want him regularly in the field. He’s barely passable at third and worse at first. 

[nicksaviking]

42 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Starting pitching prospects or current major leaguers? I'd argue this team needs Miranda's offense this year more than it needs another current major league rotation arm. In my opinion, the offense on this team is a far bigger problem than their rotation. I don't trust this rotation in the playoffs, but I don't trust this offense to even get to the playoffs. Taking a 113 OPS+ bat out of a lineup with 7 guys with 100 or better OPS+ sounds like a bad decision for a team trying to make the playoffs.

That's probably the overall sentiment, but I don't care about making the playoffs, I only care about winning the World Series. I think they need another top end arm to do so. If they can't get to the playoffs without Miranda's slightly above average bat, this isn't a team that I'm going to be overly invested in.

Miranda seems like a good fit for Miami, if they can package him with some prospects for Luzardo or Garrett, I'm pulling the trigger without thinking twice. And, no, I don't think the prospects need to be Jenkins or Lee, the Twins got Lopez AND a prospect for Arraez alone.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’m with the bell on this one. Miranda has to really hit to be a regular in this league as he doesn’t offer much else. He could take on the right handed bench bat next year but there is no I would want him regularly in the field. He’s barely passable at third and worse at first. 

What does... "really have to hit" mean? Miranda's wRC+ 115 right now would probably translate to 2 WAR at 1B over a full season. 

For the 27 players in MLB with 250+ PA at first base last year, Miranda's wRC+ 115 would be tied for 12th and at 2.0 WAR, he'd would have been 9th. He costs the MLB minimum. Here are the players who put up more than 2.0 fWAR at 1B last year.

Freddie Freeman 7.8 fWAR $27MM (6yrs $162MM)
Matt Olson 6.5 fWAR $22MM (8yrs $168MM)
Yandy Diaz 4.3 fWAR $8MM (3yrs $24MM avoid arbitration)
Christian Walker 3.9 fWAR $10.9MM (avoid arb 3)
Paul Goldschmidt 3.1 fWAR $26MM (5yrs $130MM)
Pete Alonso 3.0 fWAR $20.5MM (avoid arb 4, turned down 7yrs $158MM)
Josh Naylor 3.0 fWAR $8.5MM (avoid arb 3)
Nathaniel Lowe 2.5 fWAR $7.5MM (avoid arb 2)
Ryan Noda 2.4 fWAR $700k (Pre-arb)

On average, they make $14.7MM this year. 4 will have a long term contract larger than Buxton's under their belt this time next year. All but one will earn more than $10MM next year.

 

[stringer bell]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

What does... "really have to hit" mean? Miranda's wRC+ 115 right now would probably translate to 2 WAR at 1B over a full season. 

For the 27 players in MLB with 250+ PA at first base last year, Miranda's wRC+ 115 would be tied for 12th and at 2.0 WAR, he'd would have been 9th. He costs the MLB minimum. Here are the players who put up more than 2.0 fWAR at 1B last year.

Freddie Freeman 7.8 fWAR $27MM (6yrs $162MM)
Matt Olson 6.5 fWAR $22MM (8yrs $168MM)
Yandy Diaz 4.3 fWAR $8MM (3yrs $24MM avoid arbitration)
Christian Walker 3.9 fWAR $10.9MM (avoid arb 3)
Paul Goldschmidt 3.1 fWAR $26MM (5yrs $130MM)
Pete Alonso 3.0 fWAR $20.5MM (avoid arb 4, turned down 7yrs $158MM)
Josh Naylor 3.0 fWAR $8.5MM (avoid arb 3)
Nathaniel Lowe 2.5 fWAR $7.5MM (avoid arb 2)
Ryan Noda 2.4 fWAR $700k (Pre-arb)

On average, they make $14.7MM this year. 4 will have a long term contract larger than Buxton's under their belt this time next year. All but one will earn more than $10MM next year.

 

Will Miranda sustain above average offense? The relatively low exit velocity and low hard-hit percentage give some evidence to the contrary. A guy without good speed who makes a lot of soft contact would suggest a pretty low BABiP.

Miranda has to thread the needle and hit without great power and a relatively low line drive and hard-hit percentage and given what else he has to offer, he needs that wRC+ to 110 or so. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Gallo can't field anymore. It's not 2020 anymore. He's a butcher out there.

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That's probably the overall sentiment, but I don't care about making the playoffs, I only care about winning the World Series. I think they need another top end arm to do so. If they can't get to the playoffs without Miranda's slightly above average bat, this isn't a team that I'm going to be overly invested in.

Miranda seems like a good fit for Miami, if they can package him with some prospects for Luzardo or Garrett, I'm pulling the trigger without thinking twice. And, no, I don't think the prospects need to be Jenkins or Lee, the Twins got Lopez AND a prospect for Arraez alone.

That's fair. Don't disagree with that stance at all. Well other than I think his bat will be/is solidly above average and not slightly above average.

[Rosterman]

Age is still on his side. If there is any reason to send him down (instead of, say, Kirilloff for a restart), it would be to start playing game regularly at first base with an eye on the future, rather than learn it in the minors.

For his shortcomings with the bat, at times, Santana has been a nice regular target at the first base bag, which is valuable for your infielders to know who is catching their throws and the ability the guy has to lunge, stretch or just catch the ball.

The Twins still have questions. Is Julien in the longterm mix, and maybe at first. WHat is the status of Kirilloff, who will be entering arbitration. Wallner and Larnach in any plans? Where can you put Brooks Lee if he has a great half in St. Paul...not that you need to worry about even adding him to the 40-man or the roster this season.

Do you do anything special, like trade or release, Margot or Farmer when the time comes. Where is Austin Martin in the grand scheme of things.

Miranda has played himself back onto the major league roster!