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Posted

The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect rankings have been updated on our site. Thanks to all who voted. The big risers were a couple of pitchers putting up impressive numbers. Lots of injuries though.  How do you feel about the updated vote?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Over the past couple of weeks, we have had open prospect voting for Twins Daily writers and for the community. The results of the rankings have now been updated on the site. Here is a brief summary. 

The last time that we had a vote for Twins Daily’s Top 20 Prospect rankings was in February. In many cases, there was minimal change from the end of the 2023 season. Players acquired or lost in a trade can create change. Maybe a solid prospect does something remarkable in the Winter Leagues. Or maybe a report comes out about a pitcher at Instructional League suddenly hitting 99 mph rather than 95. Or an injured player works his way back. 

With the mid-May voting, we now have six or seven weeks of 2024 performances by hitters and pitchers. Some players get off to fast starts. Others start out slow. There are injuries and promotions. In other words, we all have more data points for helping us better rank those players. You can find all kinds of stats online, which is great. But you can also watch games online and see the players or attend games at minor-league parks. 

With that, we did have the Twins Daily writers rank their top 20 prospects first, and then we opened it up to the community rankings. We truly do thank you for taking time to rank prospects. Those rankings were used in conjunction with the writers vote in a formula to give us the updated rankings you can see today. 

Let’s get to some of the interesting things we find within the updated rankings. 

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GRADUATION: Kody Funderburk
He wasn’t in the Top 20 prospect, but he received lots of votes last time. He has surpassed the service time limits. At about 40 innings, Simeon Woods Richardson is just a couple of solid starts from graduation as well. The only other “prospects” to spend time this year with the Twins are Austin Martin and Jair Camargo. Martin is at 76 at-bats, but since he has been a role player, he is likely to pass the service time threshold first. Camargo was only up for about a week, so he’s got plenty of “prospect-dom” remaining. 

BIGGEST RISERS: Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews 
Woods Richardson was a top 10 prospect from the time he joined the Twins organization  in the Jose Berrios trade until he struggled mightily early in the 2023 season. He fell down to #20 at season’s end due to concerns about his control and lack of velocity. This year, he’s come back throwing harder, with a new arm angle, and much improved changeup and breaking balls. In addition, he has found success at times already this year in the big leagues which gets people excited. 

Of players who were not previously ranked, Zebby Matthews has made the biggest jump, up to #14 in this ranking. He had a very nice full-season debut in 2023, but in 2024, he has been really, really good. He made four starts in Cedar Rapids and now two starts in Wichita. Combined, he is 4-0 with a 1.31 ERA. In 34 1/3 innings, he has 43 strikeouts and is yet to issue a walk. By mid-season, he could easily be in the Top 10. 

BIGGEST DROP: Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper, Matt Canterino
Out of site, out of mind, I guess. In 2023, Lewis was one of the biggest stories of the Twins minor-league system. He was the Twins (and Twins Daily) Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Unfortunately, his season was initially delayed by an arm injury that was deemed fairly minor. However, a few weeks ago, he was shifted from the 7-Day IL to the 60-Day IL. Apparently that was enough for him to fall from #8 to #15. 

C.J. Culpepper was intriguing enough that Baseball America ranked him as the Twins #10 prospect before the season. Culpepper pitched in 86 innings over 21 starts. He had 89 strikeouts to just 31 walks. He split the season between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. In 11 Mussels stars, he posted a 2.33 ERA. In 10 Kernels starts, he posted a 4.99 ERA. He has missed some time already this season. In five more Kernels starts, he has a 3.38 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. 

These two (along with Kyle Jones who had an appendectomy in spring training and is also on the 60-Day IL) have been overshadowed this season by Matthews and Andrew Morris, but both are still legit big-league talents. Lewis has the mid-90s fastball with a knuckleball. Culpepper has six quality pitches. 

Twins fans were so excited about the return of Matt Canterino after missing so much time with elbow issues and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He ranked #17. He pitched well in limited spring training appearances. We knew he would get a chance to make starts, but maybe he could work out of the Twins bullpen in August and September. When the season started, it was announced that he was going on the 60-Day IL with a shoulder issue. You just can’t help but feel bad for him. That said, if he is able to come back in the next few weeks or even a month, he could be used in the bullpen still, but we just don’t know. He fell from #17 to ‘outside the top 25.” 

The Next Five: Andrew Morris (#21), Rayne Doncon (#22), Yasser Mercedes (#23), DaShawn Keirsey (#24), Rubel Cespedes (#25).
I admit, I begged the committee to increase our Top 20 rankings to a Top 25 list, but I lost. However, this group of five is as interesting and as exciting as maybe any of the other groups of five, even including #1-5. 

Morris was just promoted to Double-A and made his first start there on Tuesday night. In seven Kernels starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA. He had 43 strikeouts and seven walks in 37 2/3 innings.  The former fourth-round pick is just 22. 

Doncon came to the Twins from the Dodgers in the Manuel Margot/Owen Miller trade. The 20-year-old started the season in Fort Myers. In 38 games, he hit .283/.374/.464 (.838) with 13 doubles and four homers. He was promoted to Cedar Rapids this week. 

Mercedes signed with the Twins in January of 2022 for $1.7 million. He hit .355 with a .975 OPS, 13 doubles, three triples, and four home runs. He also had 30 stolen bases. He struggled in his States debut last year, hitting just .196 with four doubles and four homers in 25 games. He also missed the final few weeks with injury. This season, he is now hitting .422/.480/.711 (1.191) with three doubles, two triples, two homers and seven steals in 12 games. 

Keirsey just turned 27, but he just continues to improve, and he’s been able to stay healthy. He has easily been the Saints best player this season. In 40 games, he has hit .282/.384/.513 (.897) with 10 doubles, four triples and six homers. He also has 11 steals. Not to mention that he’s certainly the best defensive center fielder in the organization (other than Buxton… probably). 

Cespedes was the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Month in April and has continued to produce in May. The 23-year-old corner infielder is hitting .331/.414/.544 (.958) with 10 doubles, two triples, five home runs and 36 RBI. 

The Big Story: Injuries
If there is one big theme to the Twins farm system so far in 2024, it has to involve injuries. Looking at the updated rankings, #1 Walker Jenkins and #2 Brooks Lee have been out all year to this point. Jenkins hurt his hamstring early in Game 1. Lee had back spasms just before the season began. They both began their rehab time clocks in the FCL on Monday. 

#3 Emmanuel Rodriguez missed just over a week with a wrist issue. He didn’t go to the IL, but he missed seven or eight games. 

#5 Gabriel Gonzalez left a game with back spasms. He didn’t go on the IL until about 10 days later and he remains on the list. Then about two weeks later, Danny De Andrade sprained his ankle and went on the IL. 

#15 Cory Lewis has been out all season, which stinks after such a great professional debut a year ago. #17 Connor Prielipp had another elbow procedure done in the middle of last season and hasn’t pitched since. Matt Canterino pitched well in spring training and we were all excited to see him, but as the season began, we learned he was having some shoulder issues. I find it strange that Lewis and Canterino dropped seven or eight spots in our rankings while Prielipp moved up a spot. 


Again, thank you to all who ranked prospects this time around. We will re-rank again sometime around the draft. What do you think? Before or after?

And, what do you think of the updated rankings? What sticks out to you? 

Here’s one more look at our rankings. For more on each player, click here

#1 - Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) - FCL Rehab
#2 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - FCL Rehab
#3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Wichita)
#4 - David Festa (St. Paul)
#5 - Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) – IL
#6 - Marco Raya (Wichita)
#7 - Charlee Soto (Fort Myers)
#8 - Austin Martin (St. Paul)
#9 - Luke Keaschall (Cedar Rapids)
#10 - Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers)
#11 - Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota)
#12 - Kala’i Rosario (Wichita)
#13 - Tanner Schobel (Wichita)
#14 - Zebby Matthews (Wichita)
#15 - Cory Lewis (Wichita) - IL
#16 – Danny De Andrade (Cedar Rapids) - IL
#17 - Connor Prielipp (Cedar Rapids) - IL
#18 – Yunior Severino (St. Paul)
#19 - C.J. Culpepper (Cedar Rapids)
#20 – Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids)


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Posted

Seth thanks for adding the 5 at the end to see what a top 25 might look like. I too would love to have another five spots on the prospect rankings but then again I would probably love to see a top 40.  I get it though as after the first 20 the rankings generally gets even more subjective.  For me though it is just nice to see who might be close to cracking the top 20. 

I like the list and I know I have my personal favorites that might not objectively stack up stat wise, but it takes time for things to even out in a season or seasons to see what players can really do as they move up levels.

Another player to keep in mind would be Dameury Pena.  He almost hit 400 last year in the DSL and is hitting well in the FCL this year as well.  Oh and he only has one K this year to go with 6 walks.  He might lack power right now, but with the good eye at the plate and great contact skills I think the Twins have something with this kid.

Always fun to dream on prospect's.  Thanks for the write up!

Posted
1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I keep looking for Cossetti (I hope that I have the name right) he has caught my eye and I have high hopes for the young catcher. 

I have 4 of the Twins minor league catchers as possibly being major leaguers, all fairly closely ranked - Camargo (already on the 40 man roster), Cardenas (best defender from what I can tell), Olivar (the youngest and rawest in experience), and Cossetti. Cossetti's K rate at AA is concerning but he has really hit well this week. You can tell which players the Twins consider as potential MLB players as they will bat in the top 4 in the lineup. All of these guys do that.

Posted
5 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Odd that Cory Lewis goes down 7 spots due to an unknown injury but Preilipp actually moves up a spot after being injured for 2-3 years.

Yeah, I found that baffling as well. I moved Prielipp off my top 20 completely; it doesn't matter how much talent you have if you never play. Much like Canterino. I'm rooting for them both and I have on their upside, but as prospects they both fall off the list for me. I dinged Lewis some since he hasn't pitched yet this season, and as a college pitcher showing success at AA quickly is fairly important for his future prospects, but not as much, since he's still expected to pitch this season (so far) and this is his first bout with injury.

There's a lot of talent on the Twins prospect list; hopefully they'll be able to shake some of the injury bug and show what they're capable of.

Posted
1 hour ago, Patzky said:

I'm just so impressed with last year's draft. Glad Jenkins is back but I keep seeing the names Winokur and Keaschall cropping up in highlights.

Agree on Keaschall, but Winokur's been a disappointment so far. .686 OPS this year in 138 at bats for FTM. 

Posted

Thank you so much for the work you guys put into this! I'm even excited about players that didn't make the list, like Mercedes, Keirsey, Cespedes & Cardenas. These guys have really improved & my hope is that they can sustain it until they reach MLB. 

It's exciting to see some of our low draft SPs like Matthews doing well. Emma responding well to AA & excelling. Injuries to Jenkins, Lee & some of our pitchers has cooled us off a little (still haven't seen much from Prielipp yet). But once they're back & excelling, the excitement will return.

But IMO as I've stated before, Gonzales is very overrated. He has a great arm & contact skills which excels in the lower minors but how will that play out in the upper minors? He has shown some raw power potential for his age but he has already filled out & I doubt his HRs will increase that much. The Twins will try to convert him like Astudillo but I doubt they will & most likely goof up his feel for the bat. He'll have to hit a lot of HRs to make up for his lack of speed & defensive prowess for him to stick at RF at the MLB level. My advice is to trade him as soon as possible for a decent SP before his rating bottom out.

I like to point out that our highest ranking catching prospect is at #20 Olivar. I've been very high on him but now I doubt he has the arm to stick at catcher. Another higher ranking catcher prospect Cossetti can hit but doesn't have the defensive chops to stick at catcher on the MLB level. The only defensive catcher I like that can handle MLB is Noah Cardenas. He is still a ways from reaching MLB. These prospects we need to back-up Jeffers very soon. Catching is a premium defensive position, we need to wake up to see how poor we are in depth here. 

 

Posted

Soto is too high for me, but I get why others are excited. I like the pick, take a risk.... But my expectations are low, even if my hopes are high. Also, of likely only move him a few spots, so it's a rounding error. 

Keaschell is too low....

Posted

I wouldn't trade Woods Richardson for Festa or any of the players ranked below Festa. SWR looks like a legit MLB starting pitcher which is the scarcest commodity in baseball. In two weeks he comes off the list so it doesn't really matter.

Posted
3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Odd that Cory Lewis goes down 7 spots due to an unknown injury but Preilipp actually moves up a spot after being injured for 2-3 years.

Prospect hype will do that for a guy. Everybody likely remembers it was said without the injury, he would've gone top five. 

Keaschall looks like a steal, he's got the tools and looks like a fast riser to me.

Posted

No matter how much I cross my fingers and have hope for a fully healthy Priellip in 2025, for NOW, I would probably have dropped him at least slightly, I sure as heck wouldn't have nudged him up. I wouldn't have moved Cory Lewis down just because he hasn't thrown yet this year. Weird how one guy goes up and one guy goes down and yet neither have thrown in 2024 as of yet. 

Keaschall is too low.

I really enjoyed having the "extra" 5 on the list, and agree with @Dmanthat adding another official 5 would just make me want to see 30 or 40, LOL. I have some hope/belief Keirsey can be a solid ML 4th OF who provides some pop, speed, and defense. But I get him not being in the top 20 despite a really nice past couple of years due to age. Having kids like Mercedes and Doncon and Cespedes not in the top 20 with the kind of seasons they are having speaks to both system depth, as well as lack of familiarity with prospects so young, IMO. But those are a trio...especially Mercedes IMO...worth a lot of excitement.  

Posted

I hope Preillip isn't one of those guys who 10 years from now we say....."what might've been"....because his stuff (and being left-handed) are a rare commodity....hope he can somehow stay healthy....

I can't imagine how guys like him and Canterino and Royce Lewis continue to rehab and not get incredibly frustrated and depressed.  I just had knee replacement surgery on Monday and everything about it sucks so bad.  Can't imagine having to go through it again and again.....

Posted

Will second Docs comment above hoping to see Priellip back next year.  Also hoping to see Canterino later this year.

Just checked the box score and see that Jenkins was 2 for 3 with a walk today.  The two hits were a double and triple.  Lee also had two hits, including a double.  The two did most of the scoring for the Twins, who won 4-2.  Continue being optimistic with my wishes to see Lee with the Twins later this year and Jenkins late next year.

Posted

I kind of get the hype of Keirsey, but can anybody explain the difference between him and Stevenson last year? They seem like similar players except Stevenson got some time in the majors at age 24. I really like the first 4 guys a future cornerstone type players, and it seems like many of the next 16 will be big league players of some sort. Thanks for the work put into getting this info.

Posted
6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I kind of get the hype of Keirsey, but can anybody explain the difference between him and Stevenson last year? They seem like similar players except Stevenson got some time in the majors at age 24. I really like the first 4 guys a future cornerstone type players, and it seems like many of the next 16 will be big league players of some sort. Thanks for the work put into getting this info.

Just my personal opinion.

Stevenson was a guy who got a chance or two and never took off enough to warrant staying on a roster.

Keirsey is a couple years young, his performance has been on an upswing for a couple years now, and he hasn't received an opportunity as of yet despite some very good production, the aforementioned upswing, and a reputation for being a legitimately good CF/OF defensively. 

Being a little younger and not having had his opportunity yet is the biggest difference to me.

Posted
8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I kind of get the hype of Keirsey, but can anybody explain the difference between him and Stevenson last year?

The hope is that Keirsey is still rising, still improving. You just don't know who is a AAAA player (can do great at AAA but isn't much good at MLB) until they get a chance.

Posted
3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I kind of get the hype of Keirsey, but can anybody explain the difference between him and Stevenson last year? They seem like similar players except Stevenson got some time in the majors at age 24. I really like the first 4 guys a future cornerstone type players, and it seems like many of the next 16 will be big league players of some sort. Thanks for the work put into getting this info.

For me there really is one big difference, but I understand the point. If Keirsey was doing what he was doing at St. Paul now, but he was 23, he'd be  a top ten prospect easily, but because he is 27, he's not. 

For me, the difference is just that Keirsey just keeps getting better and better. Considering his major college injury and missing fairly significant time his first couple of pro seasons (not to mention 2020), he continues to make strides at the plate. Adding some power. Getting on base. And no one can really question what he can do on defense. 

Honestly, if he was right-handed, he'd be up. It may be that simple. The fact that he's behind all the big league guys (including Kepler, Larnach and Kirilloff - and Margot and Buxton and Castro), and at AAA, he's behind Martin because of the 40-man roster. Plus Wallner at St. Paul. 

Posted
20 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

For me there really is one big difference, but I understand the point. If Keirsey was doing what he was doing at St. Paul now, but he was 23, he'd be  a top ten prospect easily, but because he is 27, he's not. 

For me, the difference is just that Keirsey just keeps getting better and better. Considering his major college injury and missing fairly significant time his first couple of pro seasons (not to mention 2020), he continues to make strides at the plate. Adding some power. Getting on base. And no one can really question what he can do on defense. 

Honestly, if he was right-handed, he'd be up. It may be that simple. The fact that he's behind all the big league guys (including Kepler, Larnach and Kirilloff - and Margot and Buxton and Castro), and at AAA, he's behind Martin because of the 40-man roster. Plus Wallner at St. Paul. 

A good point Seth. Keirsey isn't on the 40 man, so they are more hesitant to bring him up until they have a clear player to drop from the 40 man or Keirsey makes it too hard to keep him down.

Posted

Cory Lewis doesn't have that "brand recognition" in part due to being a late rounder, and he doesn't have any experience outside the low minors so I suspect people have forgotten about him a bit. Fangraphs has him ranked at org #23 for 2023. Pretty low since Fangraphs is definitely in love with "velo" and Lewis' 90-92mph fastball isn't going to tick their boxes. Add in the lost time due to injury and he's got quite a bit to prove in the higher minors.

Canterino probably collapsed on the list because it's literally been 5 years since he was healthy. He's 26, has only 34 innings in his career above the low minors where he was struggling with walks. It's unrealistic to think Canterino could be stretched into a full starter role before 2026 even if he were healthy for the first time since 2019.

 

Posted
6 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Odd that Cory Lewis goes down 7 spots due to an unknown injury but Preilipp actually moves up a spot after being injured for 2-3 years.

I think it’s because Preilipp’s injury was factored into the initial ranking where the others injuries are just now being considered due to recency of the injuries.

Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I would drop both Priellip and Canterino from my list, given they show no signs of ever playing. 

I would likely drop Severino, and I was a believer last year.....hoping he turns it around.

I agree, Canterino is the next Nick Burdi and they might get a couple stints of him as a reliever before his arm falls off, but that's not what you'd consider a top 20 prospect. Severino becoming a 1B/DH after being a questionable 3B hurts alongside a bad start to the year. Always seems like these power-only prospects never pan out. The 35 HRs in 2023 was fun but I don't think he is a major league player.

I put SWR, Winkour, and Keaschall all over Martin. I just don't see it. He's never hit that well in the minors (career .258 hitter), has no power, and the huge problem of having no defensive home. Maybe he can hold up at 2B but he is certainly not a SS and a butcher in the outfield. He hit .683 OPS in his second trip at AA... and that was with a .367 OPS. He's good at talking walks and stealing bases but that's it. Maybe there is a Lamonte Wade-like turnaround where he become a quality hitter whose strength is drawing walks. But even he hit .293 in his first trip at AA and .298 in his repeat appearance. I dunno, I can't call Martin a top 10 prospect when his ceiling looks to be as a utility player.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Jenkins and Lee can do now that they are on track to play again. Please, no more injuries!

Posted
3 hours ago, Danchat said:

I agree, Canterino is the next Nick Burdi and they might get a couple stints of him as a reliever before his arm falls off, but that's not what you'd consider a top 20 prospect. Severino becoming a 1B/DH after being a questionable 3B hurts alongside a bad start to the year. Always seems like these power-only prospects never pan out. The 35 HRs in 2023 was fun but I don't think he is a major league player.

I put SWR, Winkour, and Keaschall all over Martin. I just don't see it. He's never hit that well in the minors (career .258 hitter), has no power, and the huge problem of having no defensive home. Maybe he can hold up at 2B but he is certainly not a SS and a butcher in the outfield. He hit .683 OPS in his second trip at AA... and that was with a .367 OPS. He's good at talking walks and stealing bases but that's it. Maybe there is a Lamonte Wade-like turnaround where he become a quality hitter whose strength is drawing walks. But even he hit .293 in his first trip at AA and .298 in his repeat appearance. I dunno, I can't call Martin a top 10 prospect when his ceiling looks to be as a utility player.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Jenkins and Lee can do now that they are on track to play again. Please, no more injuries!

Mostly, I agree with everything you've said. Martin is a question wrapped inside an enigma. My biggest problem...Jay's and Twins...is how he's been developed in the first place!

Man, I HATE rehashing the past, but he was a college INF who mostly played 2B/3B. And while I sorta get the idea of playing/trying SS as long as possible to HELP learning how to play the infield in general, there is a limit to this logic. He can play a good 2B. Fine. The arm isn't great, but he can play some 3B. Fine. But don't us he's a "natural" in CF/OF and then NOT convert him there. ESPECIALLY when he wasn't allowed to play at all when drafted, and virtually sat for a year and a half before being tossed in to AA as a SS!

I don't blame the Twins for keeping him at SS when acquired. I DO blame the Twins for keeping him at SS the next year...he'd already played a ton of INF in college, just put him where he belongs...and ANY time at SS should have been replaced by time at 2B/3B if ANY base! But it should have been OF.

There was NOTHING wrong with trying to add a little more power to his game. He went to the AFL and ROCKED IT! He also went back to a different approach/stance he felt more comfortable with. 

In his AFL appearance and a little short of a half year at AAA in 2023z some of us were encouraged. Some believed he was ready to start 2024 on the ML roster. Whew! How crazy prospect hype and hope grabs some people.

As a rookie getting his first shot at the ML level, I thought he held his own. He didn't look like he didn't belong at the plate, or in the OF. He's actually shown defensive potential, SB potential, and some XB hitting potential. And then he came right back up again and looked totally out of place.

I have NO IDEA how to rank Martin at this point. For his sake, and the Twins, I hope he can sit at AAA for a couple months and just play OF defense and work on his batting approach in order to actually BE a solid ML ballplayer.  He's starting to look like, no offense, to being a talented late bloomer who might figure in to the second half of 2024, and a possible 2025 fixture.

Posted
12 hours ago, Possumlad said:

Agree on Keaschall, but Winokur's been a disappointment so far. .686 OPS this year in 138 at bats for FTM. 

Winokur is hitting .254/.321/.401 (.722) in the Florida State League as a 19.5 year old player. 

The average hitter in the FSL is hitting .230/.332/.343 (.675) with an average age of 21.0 years old. 

So, he's 10-11% better than league average batting average, about 3% below average on-base percentage, and about 17% better than league average slugging... and he's 1 1/2 - 2 years younger than the average player. 

Now, as we notice by his OPS going up 36 points in one day (a 2-for-4 with a double and homer), it also shows that in general, he's been a league average player in the FSL despite his youth. To be that young and hold your own at that level is more impressive than the numbers by themselves. 

And, I would add, he's doing that while moving around between SS, CF, 3B and RF (and some DH). He's got so much upside and potential. 

Posted
23 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Odd that Cory Lewis goes down 7 spots due to an unknown injury but Preilipp actually moves up a spot after being injured for 2-3 years.

You get a few extra votes through hype

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