The Twins Need to Sort Out Their 60/60/42 Problem

[Ted Schwerzler]

Nothing was more damaging to the way a Major League Baseball regular season was viewed than Covid. Not only did it impact the development and draft for organizations across the sport, but the 60-game sprint changed the way fans consumed the game. The journey is something to be embraced, but the Minnesota Twins must figure out their experience.

 

Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve never heard of the 60-60-42 concept before, it’s pretty simple. Coming into any given season, it’s almost a lock that each franchise will win at least 60 games and lose at least 60 games. How the remaining 42 shake out often makes the difference between a postseason club and complete ineptitude. Right now, Rocco Baldelli’s Minnesota Twins seem determined to play their pivotal 42 out in the most frustrating way possible.

At 25-23 through their first 48 games, the Twins have completed the first 30 percent of their season. In Timberwolves terms, they aren’t seeking a 20-point comeback late in the game, but they definitely aren’t feeling comfortable, either. Despite being just above .500, the Twins have paired a 7-13 start and a 12-game winning streak to get here.

That’s where things get maddening.

Across the landscape of professional sports, recency bias rules. The National Football League draws more eyes than any other form of competition across the United States, and that schedule has just 17 games across an 18-week regular season. Every game carries a real chance of determining your fate for the season--perhaps 10 times the chance any given baseball game has.

Baseball is a different animal, but it’s difficult to remember that when things are going really well or really poorly. The goal of any big-league team should be to win series on a weekly basis. Take two of three in a series and split a four-gamer, and you've had a week of 93-win baseball.

For Minnesota, though, few weeks have been that tame. Here are their records for full weeks this year, starting Apr. 1: 1-3, 3-4, 1-5, 7-0, 5-1, 5-2, 0-6. The volatility isn't necessarily equivalent to incompetence or failure, but it reflects a lack of consistency that will catch up to the team if it persists. The coaches in the dugout need to figure out a way to beat the streak and find a sustained level of success. True or not, it certainly feels like some of the 42 pivotal games have snuck into weeks when the Twins were playing at a very high or very low level--like they will regret not having found even one win in a challenging week last week, come the end of the season.

We have seen the approach from David Popkins and Rudy Hernandez work like gangbusters, but at other junctures, it has fallen flat. Pete Maki has overseen a pitching staff that refuses to outright crater, but that doesn't seem able to fully reprise last season's dominance, either. At its core, everything falls on Baldelli, who is the leader of the bunch.

As the saying goes, you can't predict baseball. You can't program or schedule it, either. No one is expecting the Twins to steadily and metronomically play to a 90-win pace all season, and injuries and payroll constraints forced them into some unexpected circumstances early this year. Still, without a greater sense of consistency and identity, it will be hard for the team to catch the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central. The Twins have enough talent to do that. Now, they need a bit more stability from that talented corps.

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[Riverbrian]

I've always heard it as:

Every team wins 54 games, Every team loses 54 games. It's the other 54 games that matter. 

Whoever came up with 60 60 42 has no idea about the usefulness of alliteration. 

 

[mikelink45]

Nice thought article.  It is inconsistency that drives the fans crazy.  The terrible start, the 12 game ride to the top and then the current crash.  Ups and downs are not supposed to be such wide swings.  

How to even things out?  Not sure what answers the coaches have or the manager.  I do advocate taking the foot off the platoon pedal and playing the players doing the best regardless of who is pitching.  Let this be a measure of consistency. 

I also see the need for the more traditional BP roles being established.  Let players anticipate when and how they will be used.

Finally when players are not producing over this length of time, move them down or out and get some fresh blood in the lineup.

[Karbo]

40 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Nice thought article.  It is inconsistency that drives the fans crazy.  The terrible start, the 12 game ride to the top and then the current crash.  Ups and downs are not supposed to be such wide swings.  

How to even things out?  Not sure what answers the coaches have or the manager.  I do advocate taking the foot off the platoon pedal and playing the players doing the best regardless of who is pitching.  Let this be a measure of consistency. 

I also see the need for the more traditional BP roles being established.  Let players anticipate when and how they will be used.

Finally when players are not producing over this length of time, move them down or out and get some fresh blood in the lineup.

I agree. Unless they are facing a lefty that dominates LH hitters, I say leave Kepler in, and most the time let Julian hit.

The successful bullpens in the past had pretty structured spots where guys could pretty well anticipate if they would come in. At this point however, the only 2 guys that would pitch in late innings with a lead would be Jax and Duran. This is why I don't understand the way they have used Alcala.

[Doctor Gast]

Consistency is the trick, not too high, not too low. Like in the past, the Twins tend to hang unto their mistakes too long. Resulting in too many losses & not enough wins. 

[FlyingFinn]

It seems that the Twins can only win for an extended period when Royce Lewis is playing. Amazing how that young guy makes such a difference.

[adorduan]

Their big winning streak was built on a lot of wins against very bad teams. This team looks like a .500 team at best...

[Riverbrian]

"Ride a painted pony... let the spinning wheel spin". 

[LambchoP]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Nice thought article.  It is inconsistency that drives the fans crazy.  The terrible start, the 12 game ride to the top and then the current crash.  Ups and downs are not supposed to be such wide swings.  

How to even things out?  Not sure what answers the coaches have or the manager.  I do advocate taking the foot off the platoon pedal and playing the players doing the best regardless of who is pitching.  Let this be a measure of consistency. 

I also see the need for the more traditional BP roles being established.  Let players anticipate when and how they will be used.

Finally when players are not producing over this length of time, move them down or out and get some fresh blood in the lineup.

Yes, this exactly. Ease off the platoon crap, play your hottest hitters. I think calling up Keirsey to replace Kiriloff or better yet Margot could help the lineup. As for the bullpen I think it would be beneficial to call up Alcala and Varland. That would be a pretty solid bullpen especially when Stewart comes back.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I agree. Unless they are facing a lefty that dominates LH hitters, I say leave Kepler in, and most the time let Julian hit.

The successful bullpens in the past had pretty structured spots where guys could pretty well anticipate if they would come in. At this point however, the only 2 guys that would pitch in late innings with a lead would be Jax and Duran. This is why I don't understand the way they have used Alcala.

Julien has is hitting .210. He has struck out 56 times in 143 AB’s …………this is against (principally) a protected approach of just facing RH pitching……..why/how is starting him against LH pitching a good idea?

Kepler has/does start v. LH pitching occasionally. He needs a day off once in a while BUT he has seemed to have decent success in ‘24 v. LH arms!

[Linus]

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien has is hitting .210. He has struck out 56 times in 143 AB’s …………this is against (principally) a protected approach of just facing RH pitching……..why/how is starting him against LH pitching a good idea?

Kepler has/does start v. LH pitching occasionally. He needs a day off once in a while BUT he has seemed to have decent success in ‘24 v. LH arms!

Yea I for one have no desire to see Julien or Kiriloff face a lefty. They can’t even hit righties at this point. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Whoever came up with 60 60 42 has no idea about the usefulness of alliteration.

ChatGPT 3.5, which is never, never wrong*, attributes it to Earl Weaver.  He knew a little about baseball.  But you're right that he weren't no poet, and he know'ed-it.

 

*I love messing with ChatGPT.  I asked it next if Earl was still alive, and it told me, "As of my last update in January 2022, Earl Weaver passed away on January 19, 2013, at the age of 82."  Last update?  Do we need to keep checking?  I'll ask it next about Generalissimo Francisco Franco.

Here is another ChatGPT dialog that I chose to save for posterity a few weeks ago:

Which member of the US Senate has a birthday this year?
ChatGPT

Without real-time access to current data, I can't provide the birthdays of members of the US Senate for this year. However, many senators have birthdays each year, so it's likely that several senators have birthdays in the current year. You might find the information by checking the biographies or profiles of current senators online or through official Senate resources.

But I digress.

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, ashbury said:

ChatGPT 3.5, which is never, never wrong*, attributes it to Earl Weaver.  He knew a little about baseball.  But you're right that he weren't no poet, and he know'ed-it.

 

*I love messing with ChatGPT.  I asked it next if Earl was still alive, and it told me, "As of my last update in January 2022, Earl Weaver passed away on January 19, 2013, at the age of 82."  Last update?  Do we need to keep checking?  I'll ask it next about Generalissimo Francisco Franco.

Lasorda has been quoted with:

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference".

Why would anyone mess with the beauty of 54-54-54? 

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Lasorda has been quoted with:

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference".

IWhy would anyone mess with the beauty of 54-54-54? 

I wasn't questioning your quote, but ChatGPT, which is never, never wrong, nevertheless confirms the identity.   Oh, and, while I was at it...

How many times has Tommy Lasorda died, in the time since he passed away in 2021?

ChatGPT

Tommy Lasorda passed away on January 7, 2021, and since then, there have been no reports or credible sources indicating that he has died again. Once someone has passed away, they cannot die again. It's important to verify information from credible sources to avoid spreading misinformation.

 

/ Edit - PS, Ted, my apologies for littering the first page of the comments area of your fine article. 😀

 

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I wasn't questioning your quote, but ChatGPT, which is never, never wrong, nevertheless confirms the identity. 

How many times has Tommy Lasorda died, in the time since he passed away in 2021?

ChatGPT

Tommy Lasorda passed away on January 7, 2021, and since then, there have been no reports or credible sources indicating that he has died again. Once someone has passed away, they cannot die again. It's important to verify information from credible sources to avoid spreading misinformation.

 

I might have some fun if I was allowed to be ChatGPT for a day. 

[Schmoeman5]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I wasn't questioning your quote, but ChatGPT, which is never, never wrong, nevertheless confirms the identity.  Maybe I'll ask it how many times Lasorda has died in the time since he passed away in 2021.

 

Warped. 😃 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Yes, this exactly. Ease off the platoon crap, play your hottest hitters. I think calling up Keirsey to replace Kiriloff or better yet Margot could help the lineup. As for the bullpen I think it would be beneficial to call up Alcala and Varland. That would be a pretty solid bullpen especially when Stewart comes back.

I generally agree with this except for Varland. He needs to stay stretched out as a starter because the current 5 will have at least 1 or 2 injuries, dead arms, etc. that will require an IL stint and we don't have anyone else at AAA. 

Keirsey for Kirilloff or, better yet, for a DFA of Margot, is a great idea. We need a real CF for those 2-3 games a week Buxton needs to sit or DH Castro can't handle the position. Can Keirsey hit MLB pitching? I don't know, he's never had that opportunity. One thing I do know is Margot cannot hit MLB pitching any more, doesn't run particularly well, and is an average corner OF on defense.  Hard to imagine that Keirsey could be worse overall, and he'll be better in the OF and on the base paths. The only question is whether he can ever get on the base paths.  

[KBJ1]

In lieu of SP, which we knew wasn't coming, building up the bullpen made sense. Unfortunately age, injury and lack of expected results have decimated the bullpen.

I still think Julien will figure it out, but Kiriloff,  Martin & Wallner have been hugh disappointments. 

Miranda & Lanarch have picked up some of the slack,  but the money spent on DeSclafimi, Margot & Santana could have been better spent elsewhere. ($15M)

Gurriel & Imanaga come to mind.

We need to do better in international free agent youth signings (Della Cruz & Acuna types) and don't forget that every team passed on Aaron Judge - 32nd pick.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

It seems that the Twins can only win for an extended period when Royce Lewis is playing. Amazing how that young guy makes such a difference.

Yes, he was in so many games the past month. 🤣

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not much question here... This team is just not very good.  Take out that two week stretch where they beat up on some atrocious teams, the Twins are a bottom 40% team.

I imagine that this will alienate some people, but there really is no reason to think they will dramatically improve at this point.  Outside of Lewis, there is no help on the horizon.  This team will not make any moves that increase payroll.  SP and RP will continue to be rollercoasters.  The offense is pretty anemic.  This team will be lucky to win 80 games.

Thanks Pohlads for your commitment to Minnesota baseball!

[bean5302]

Yeah! Stupid Pohlads spending less than the Dodgers! It's all their fault. If only we could have signed more big names like Blake Snell (11.98 ERA), Jordan Montgomery (4.98 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (hasn't pitched)! We could have shored up our outfield with Cody Bellinger, and made a trade for a big money guy like Kris Bryant! Yeahhhh!!!! Now that's a $275MM roster we could be proud of!

[Morland]

I first heard 60-60-42 from Tom Kelly. You can remove their good two weeks and say the Twins are a bad team; you can remove the bad week and say they are a great team. The truth lies in between.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not much question here... This team is just not very good.  Take out that two week stretch where they beat up on some atrocious teams, the Twins are a bottom 40% team.

I imagine that this will alienate some people, but there really is no reason to think they will dramatically improve at this point.  Outside of Lewis, there is no help on the horizon.  This team will not make any moves that increase payroll.  SP and RP will continue to be rollercoasters.  The offense is pretty anemic.  This team will be lucky to win 80 games.

Thanks Pohlads for your commitment to Minnesota baseball!

Not too far off, but seems just a tad too negative. The Starting pitching is good enough to be an 75-80 win team with a bad bullpen; this bullpen is good enough to get them to an 80 plus win team. The offense? Who the heck knows at this point. Lewis will help but he can't do it alone. Jeffers and Julien are the key guys that have to step up.  I also don't see much other help on the horizon and anyone who can hit will be expensive at the trade deadline with the lack of offense around baseball. I still predict 85ish wins.   

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Stupid Pohlads spending less than the Dodgers!

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Feel free to tell me the specific amount of money the Pohlads should have demanded Falvey spend. I created a Dodgers-like payroll for you... I'd imagine you're not a huge fan of it.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Feel free to tell me the specific amount of money the Pohlads should have demanded Falvey spend. I created a Dodgers-like payroll for you... I'd imagine you're not a huge fan of it.

You brought up the question of money, I didn't, and the writer of the article certainly didn't.

[bean5302]

54 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You brought up the question of money, I didn't, and the writer of the article certainly didn't.

I was responding to Fire Dan Gladden's comment about the Pohlad's commitment. You jumped in. 

[joefish]

15 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

It seems that the Twins can only win for an extended period when Royce Lewis is playing. Amazing how that young guy makes such a difference.

But when has he been on the field long enough to make this true?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

You brought up the question of money, I didn't, and the writer of the article certainly didn't.

But the writer of the article brought up birthdays and U.S. Senators, correct? 🙂

[FlyingFinn]

5 hours ago, joefish said:

But when has he been on the field long enough to make this true?

The last half of 2023. Over a two month period the Twins went from mediocre to sealing up the division. He was clutch, hitting five grand slams, and it somehow rubbed off on everyone else.