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If you’ve never heard of the 60-60-42 concept before, it’s pretty simple. Coming into any given season, it’s almost a lock that each franchise will win at least 60 games and lose at least 60 games. How the remaining 42 shake out often makes the difference between a postseason club and complete ineptitude. Right now, Rocco Baldelli’s Minnesota Twins seem determined to play their pivotal 42 out in the most frustrating way possible.
At 25-23 through their first 48 games, the Twins have completed the first 30 percent of their season. In Timberwolves terms, they aren’t seeking a 20-point comeback late in the game, but they definitely aren’t feeling comfortable, either. Despite being just above .500, the Twins have paired a 7-13 start and a 12-game winning streak to get here.
That’s where things get maddening.
Across the landscape of professional sports, recency bias rules. The National Football League draws more eyes than any other form of competition across the United States, and that schedule has just 17 games across an 18-week regular season. Every game carries a real chance of determining your fate for the season--perhaps 10 times the chance any given baseball game has.
Baseball is a different animal, but it’s difficult to remember that when things are going really well or really poorly. The goal of any big-league team should be to win series on a weekly basis. Take two of three in a series and split a four-gamer, and you've had a week of 93-win baseball.
For Minnesota, though, few weeks have been that tame. Here are their records for full weeks this year, starting Apr. 1: 1-3, 3-4, 1-5, 7-0, 5-1, 5-2, 0-6. The volatility isn't necessarily equivalent to incompetence or failure, but it reflects a lack of consistency that will catch up to the team if it persists. The coaches in the dugout need to figure out a way to beat the streak and find a sustained level of success. True or not, it certainly feels like some of the 42 pivotal games have snuck into weeks when the Twins were playing at a very high or very low level--like they will regret not having found even one win in a challenging week last week, come the end of the season.
We have seen the approach from David Popkins and Rudy Hernandez work like gangbusters, but at other junctures, it has fallen flat. Pete Maki has overseen a pitching staff that refuses to outright crater, but that doesn't seem able to fully reprise last season's dominance, either. At its core, everything falls on Baldelli, who is the leader of the bunch.
As the saying goes, you can't predict baseball. You can't program or schedule it, either. No one is expecting the Twins to steadily and metronomically play to a 90-win pace all season, and injuries and payroll constraints forced them into some unexpected circumstances early this year. Still, without a greater sense of consistency and identity, it will be hard for the team to catch the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central. The Twins have enough talent to do that. Now, they need a bit more stability from that talented corps.
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