Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

Starting pitching was a defining strength for the Twins in 2023, propelling them to a division championship and postseason advancement. This unit suffered significant talent losses during the offseason, but the club is hoping internal risers can offset the negative impact.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Gray was not only Minnesota's best pitcher last year but also the team MVP. Replacing the void he left atop the rotation is one of the Twins' biggest challenges following an offseason that yielded no outside additions designed to do so.

The front office is hoping that increased roles for returning players and key breakthroughs from young talent can make up for the loss of Gray, who's already dealt with renewed right hamstring issues after signing a $75 million deal with the Cardinals. Even if he was back, there was almost no chance Gray was going to replicate his career year, so one way or another, the continued success of Minnesota's rotation was always going to depend on other returning arms taking the next step. Now the pressure is heightened. Fortunately, it's a group that's well poised to deliver.

TWINS STARTING PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Starting Rotation: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland
Depth: Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, Randy Dobnak
Prospects: David Festa, Marco Raya, Corey Lewis, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 2nd out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30

THE GOOD
Finally, the Twins have a true ace starter. There's really no quibbling with the distinction for Pablo López. After being acquired from the Marlins for Luis Arraez and signing a long-term extension, López bookended a sensational age-27 season by propelling the Twins to their first and last wins. He fired 5 ⅓ shutout innings on Opening Day, and in Game 2 of the ALDS, he blanked the Astros over seven innings in Houston.

In between, López was an All-Star and clearly one of the league's most effective, dominant starting pitchers. His 234 strikeouts tied NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell for third-most in the majors, and López ranked 10th among all pitchers in fWAR. On the few occasions where the right-hander got roughed up, it almost always seemed to owe more to bad luck than bad pitching. Statcast corroborates this impression: López's 3.00 xERA was considerably lower than his 3.66 ERA, and was in fact the best in all of baseball.

Having celebrated his 28th birthday earlier this month, López is in the heart of his prime. He looks healthy and strong in camp coming off a career-high workload (194 IP). Rocco Baldelli uncharacteristically made no secret of López's status as No. 1 starter this spring, and the righty's presence is easily the biggest reason for optimism about this rotation – maybe even this team.

Even in Gray's absence, the Twins should have the ability to go at least four deep with above-average starters, with lots of reason for optimism around the top four entering the season, with the fifth spot more of a question mark.

Ober has consistently been good when he's pitched in the majors, and he was as good as ever last year, successfully pushing his own workload to unprecedented heights while looking the part of a worthy No. 2 starter. There was no thought of forcing him to start the season in Triple-A this time around. 

Ryan also pitched to the level of a frontline starter for a time, before an undisclosed injury in July sent his performance in the tank, but he rebounded after time on the injured list. Ryan is one of the league's premier strikeout artists and has been excellent for long stretches. He's got to keep the home runs at bay, but his upside is easy to see if that happens. There's optimism around Ryan and some of the tweaks he's making to address the issue.

Paddack is a key figure in Minnesota's rotation outlook. He looked pretty good in his five starts in 2022 before going down with an elbow injury and requiring Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for most of last year. Paddack threw fire during a late stint out of the bullpen, and has impressed with his stuff and velocity this spring. If the right-hander can stay healthy and pitch up to at least his career baseline (3.93 FIP) he'll be a big factor in the success of this unit.

Given the stakes surrounding his improvement, and the implications if he's not up to the task, Varland will be one of the most pivotal players in the Twins rotation picture. He was set to follow the Ober path as a top reinforcement at Triple-A, but Anthony DeSclafani's elbow issues have vaulted Varland back into the rotation spotlight after he excelled in a relief role late last year. The 26-year-old is having a very impressive spring, and there's hope that developing a two-seamer will elevate his game in a starting role. 

THE BAD
DeSclafani was the front office's lone offseason addition to the rotation. Now he's out of the picture before he had a chance to enter it. The veteran came to camp with hopes of moving past last year's flexor strain, but was unable to bounce back and now appears destined for elbow surgery.

The Twins still boast a more than respectable starting five, but the depth behind those five is vastly more suspect than it was a year ago. There's far less margin for error, which is troubling because there is considerable potential for error. 

In every rotation spot behind López at the top, credible concerns exist. Ryan was horrible in the second half, and below average overall. Ober blew past his record workload and got sent back to Triple-A in late August as the team felt his performance was waning. It's striking that despite their strong work throughout the regular season, the Twins didn't trust either of Ober or Ryan to get any leash in a postseason start. 

Paddack has thrown 27 total innings in the past two seasons and as good as he looked after coming back last year, that was as a reliever. He's a real wild card but the Twins are counting on him to deliver quality innings and help offset their losses, especially with DeSclafani going down. It's a precarious gamble for a pitcher who hasn't thrown even 110 innings in a season since he was a rookie in 2019.

Then you've got Varland, who shows promise but has much to prove in the rotation. He has yet to demonstrate he can be an impact starter in the majors; he had a 5.30 ERA and 5.49 FIP in 10 starts last season. From there you start delving into completely unproven prospect depth, via Woods Richardson, Festa and other prospects. There's talent and intrigue within this group but very little major-league experience.

THE BOTTOM LINE
It's fair to say that the Twins aren't in nearly as good of a position from a rotation quality and depth standpoint as they were a year ago, with Gray, Maeda and Mahle all on hand. At the same time, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees. The Twins are in much better shape with starting pitching than a vast majority of teams around the league, as reflected by a top six projection from FanGraphs at the position.

López is the kind of building block that others envy, and the kind that Twins fans themselves have envied pretty much ever since his idol Johan Santana departed. Ober, Ryan and Paddack have given us reason to believe they can support Minnesota's unquestioned ace as key complementary pieces. But Derek Falvey's pitching pipeline will be tested if more injuries strike. By leaving themselves little room for error, the Twins are leaving themselves ample room for potential criticism.

Catch up on the rest of our spring position previews:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

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[bean5302]

I think it's a fine regular season rotation considering how strong I expect the hitting to be. It's probably a major weakness in the playoffs, but it's not an impossibility one of the rotation arms could take that major step forward to fill a #2 role. I think the greatest chance of seeing a playoff starter emerge might be Ober, but it's tough to believe he'll continue to outperform his FIP and xFIP so much.

2023
3.43 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.20 xFIP = Ober
3.66 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.28 xFIP = Lopez
4.51 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 3.76 xFIP = Ryan
4.63 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 3.81 xFIP = Varland

Career
3.63 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.14 xFIP = Ober
3.86 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.64 xFIP = Lopez
4.05 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 4.01 xFIP = Ryan
4.21 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 3.85 xFIP = Paddack
4.40 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 3.90 xFIP = Varland

I don't think the Twins probably need to do anything until the trade deadline as a rotation heavy on #4's can certainly get you to the playoffs, they just won't let you advance.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Nick used the word "hope" three times in this article.  That basically sums up the Twins SP this year behind Lopez.

Teams that have WS aspirations should not be using the words "hope" and "starting pitcher" in the same sentence.

Very very sad. 

[Karbo]

The injury threat is the biggest concern to me. I feel we have a pretty solid top 4 and Varland is doing very well this spring (for whatever that's worth) but then we step down to SWR with very little MLB experience, and Festa with 0 experience or maybe Dobnak. On a side note, the Athletic has Lopez ranked #17 for starters which I think is much too low. I'm biased but to me he should be top 10.

[MMMordabito]

"The Twins are in much better shape with starting pitching than a vast majority of teams around the league"

This is why I'm not too worried about the rotation to start the season. Looking around the division, Louie Varland is probably the best healthy 5th starter.  The Minnesota starters should also have the benefit of more run support than any of the other rotations in the division.

[Doctor Gast]

54 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Nick used the word "hope" three times in this article.  That basically sums up the Twins SP this year behind Lopez.

Teams that have WS aspirations should not be using the words "hope" and "starting pitcher" in the same sentence.

Very very sad. 

Hope was especially used when talking about DeSclavani because there was nothing to back anything up. I am confident that our SPs will bring us a Central Division Title. But as mentioned I doubt we advance in the postseason. For Ryan & or Ober to take that big step is where hope comes in. The Twins got the max out of Gray, I doubt that STL will replicate it.

IMO our depth is fine although signing Rich Hill to a minor league contract would be wise yet giving our in-house SPs plenty of opportunity to shine. I see Festa & even Raya able to see some time at MLB. Whereas signing a FA would block them & cost us. We have to be lucky at the deadline if that's the route they are thinking.

[Rosterman]

As long as health isn't an issue. I see all of Lopez, Ryan and Ober getting up towards 180+ innings and making their regular turns in the rotation. I also think Varland is capable of fulltime seasonal work.

I love watching Ryan and Varland work. Ryan, when he can set the timing of a game, is a gem. He needs to work on crafty pitching locations, maybe make Vasquez his regular catcher. You will give up his, but don't let it affect your timing. The homer-run ball still happens. But I ike that he will chalenge a hitter.

Same can be said for Varland. No one works faster than Varland. And he, too, will challenge the hitter. But if he can keep the hitter off-balance, watch out. Sure, we maight've like to see him start the season and egt real comfortable in St. Paul. He still could, if the Twins want to pitch him that way for the first 10-12 days before coming across town.

Paddack will be fine, but I see a max of 25 starts and maybe 130+ innings at best. What then? Some bullpen work? Hopefully we have someone at St. Paul capable of settling into the rotation.

Woods Richardson, Headrick, Festa are all on the lightrail if the time comes. Dbnak could still be a player. Be curious to see what the rotation is in St. Paul. Too bad about Canterino. Was hoping he might blossom into someone other than the next Burdi of the Twins.

 

One could've dreamed. A one-year flyer on Blake Snell for $32m...humm, I would've gone for it, even with the second year option that he would walk from if he pitches great. Who would've thought.

 

[Hubie29]

Looks like Louie was "working on a few things" today.  No need to worry.  😉

[Aggies7]

A lot of hope/trust being heaped on Varland as a starter. I don’t know. Maybe I missed something.

[Danchat]

30 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

A lot of hope/trust being heaped on Varland as a starter. I don’t know. Maybe I missed something.

After what we saw last year, I think he can hang as a #5 starter. I don't have any hopes for him past that. I'm more afraid of what happens if any of the five get hurt, because there's a pretty big drop-off after that.

[Road trip]

37 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

A lot of hope/trust being heaped on Varland as a starter. I don’t know. Maybe I missed something.

Agreed.  Plus an almost equal amount of hope on Paddack being both effective and healthy.  Add in a little hope for Ryan and Ober too.  I feel good about the lineup, the bench, the bullpen, and positional depth in the minors.  But starting pitching... oof, it isn't hard to imagine a disaster if we get 1 injury and one of the top 3 starters has a bad year.

[jmlease1]

I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs.

I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once.

I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.

[Aggies7]

32 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Agreed.  Plus an almost equal amount of hope on Paddack being both effective and healthy.  Add in a little hope for Ryan and Ober too.  I feel good about the lineup, the bench, the bullpen, and positional depth in the minors.  But starting pitching... oof, it isn't hard to imagine a disaster if we get 1 injury and one of the top 3 starters has a bad year.

Anytime someone would get on Ryan for being inconsistent/underwhelming, it was always said that he was a back end of the rotation guy (3 at best), nothing more. Now he’s the 2 and a whole bunch of question marks come after that. They knew this going in and didn’t make a big move.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs.

I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once.

I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.

Paddack went longer than Ryan in game 4. I definitely think there were trust issues (rightfully so) with Ryan entering that game. 

Yeah, I think Varland is the better option between the two, but that's not saying a whole lot. Louie needs to show he can stick in the back end of a rotation, he's far from a lock. Paddack's innings limit isn't getting the attention it probably should. He's going to require 50-60 innings allocated elsewhere to fill out his rotation spot, and that assumes he's healthy and productive nearly all year. It's a tough outlook for the SP right now. 

Trash fire is an awfully low bar to clear. Sure, I'll take Paddack and Varland over Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Archer, ect. but the teams that handed that group starts imploded and missed the postseason entirely. Failing to win a pretty pathetic ALC would be a massive **** up. I don't expect anybody (Lopez included) to finish runner up for the AL Cy Young, some regression is/was expected, but right now the 2024 Twins are one injury away from their back end looking eerily similar to those trash fires you mentioned. 

[Aggies7]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Paddack went longer than Ryan in game 4. I definitely think there were trust issues (rightfully so) with Ryan entering that game. 

Yeah, I think Varland is the better option between the two, but that's not saying a whole lot. Louie needs to show he can stick in the back end of a rotation, he's far from a lock. Paddack's innings limit isn't getting the attention it probably should. He's going to require 50-60 innings allocated elsewhere to fill out his rotation spot, and that assumes he's healthy and productive nearly all year. It's a tough outlook for the SP right now. 

Trash fire is an awfully low bar to clear. Sure, I'll take Paddack and Varland over Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Archer, ect. but the teams that handed that group starts imploded and missed the postseason entirely. Failing to win a pretty pathetic ALC would be a massive **** up. I don't expect anybody (Lopez included) to finish runner up for the AL Cy Young, some regression is/was expected, but right now the 2024 Twins are one injury away from their back end looking eerily similar to those trash fires you mentioned. 

Exactly right. Paddack did a great job in the playoffs, but he had a grand total of FIVE innings last season. Absolutely nobody here has any idea how he’s going to fare as a starter. He’s started 5 games in the last 2 seasons..

[rv78]

For every comment about these guys in the rotation being "good enough" there is an equal chance of them NOT being "good enough". The FO, in my opinion, bringing in ANOTHER injured arm shows they don't know what they are doing. Counting on an injured DeSclafani and Paddack, who has one season barely over 100 innings in the last 4 years, is a huge gamble and if the rotation implodes, they only have themselves to blame. If the fans turn away due to a poor showing then ownership can join them. In a season where the team should have tried to improve on a decent season, they took a step backward. 

Sure, spring training games mean nothing, so lets not put any stock into the fact that the Twins are 8-15 and the Tigers are 16-8 at this point. Just looks like one team is going thru the motions and the other team is actually trying. Tell me I'm crazy but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers take the division.  

[Jocko87]

Lotta takes here that have been cued in the drafts folder just waiting for a little something to go wrong. 

[arby58]

I subscribe to Trade Rumors, and one of their experts was asked to rank the 'top 4' in pitchers in starting rotations in the American League. His answer:

For simplicity’s sake, I’m going with RosterResource top 4s and throwing in a few contenders:

• Mariners: Castillo-Gilbert-Kirby-Miller (and I love Bryan Woo too!)
• Twins: Lopez-Ryan-Ober-Paddack (and I love Louie Varland too!)
• Blue Jays: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Kikuchi
• Rangers second half: deGrom-Scherzer-Eovaldi-Gray/Mahle

I’m pretty easily taking the Mariners for the best top-four rotation in the AL.  I do think the Twins’ rotation is sneaky-good.

[Brandon]

Here is how I would rank our rotation in terms of durability.

1 Varland. I think he could handle 180-200 innings.  He has shown to be durable.  The question with him, will his ERA be around 4 so he can pitch those innings or 5+ and spend time in AAA.

2.  Lopez.  He can also pitch 180-200 innings

3.  Ober.  He seems to be in the 160-180 range

4. Ryan.  He also seems to be in the 160-180 range

5. Paddack.  He is coming back from injury so expect 120-140 innings

we can work in depth options from here.  If we have another major injury, we have more prospect trade capital to go get a starter if need be. 

[Parfigliano]

15 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Nick used the word "hope" three times in this article.  That basically sums up the Twins SP this year behind Lopez.

Teams that have WS aspirations should not be using the words "hope" and "starting pitcher" in the same sentence.

Very very sad. 

Very very sad was Archer and Bundy comprising 40% of the rotation a few years ago.  I dont see anyone remotely comparable to either of those arms now.

[Fat Calvin]

8 hours ago, rv78 said:

For every comment about these guys in the rotation being "good enough" there is an equal chance of them NOT being "good enough". The FO, in my opinion, bringing in ANOTHER injured arm shows they don't know what they are doing. Counting on an injured DeSclafani and Paddack, who has one season barely over 100 innings in the last 4 years, is a huge gamble and if the rotation implodes, they only have themselves to blame. If the fans turn away due to a poor showing then ownership can join them. In a season where the team should have tried to improve on a decent season, they took a step backward. 

Sure, spring training games mean nothing, so lets not put any stock into the fact that the Twins are 8-15 and the Tigers are 16-8 at this point. Just looks like one team is going thru the motions and the other team is actually trying. Tell me I'm crazy but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers take the division.  

It wouldn't surprise me either.  The Twins don't look good this spring.  They have the worst record in baseball.  Some say it doesn't matter; and maybe they're right.  I just wish that people would stop talking about who we can count on in "the playoffs."  Talk about counting your chickens.  I mean really! 

[jmlease1]

Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works.

Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.

[big dog]

"It's fair to say that the Twins aren't in nearly as good of a position from a rotation quality and depth standpoint as they were a year ago, with Gray, Maeda and Mahle all on hand."

It's also fair to say that I will be replacing Mahle's production while sitting on my computer reading Twins Daily, so I've got that one covered.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

League-wide projections and roster analysis paints a starkly different picture of this rotation than Twins fans do.

Of course anything could change with injuries, but that is true of every single team in MLB. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Nick used the word "hope" three times in this article.  That basically sums up the Twins SP this year behind Lopez.

Teams that have WS aspirations should not be using the words "hope" and "starting pitcher" in the same sentence.

Very very sad. 

You don’t think the defending Champion Rangers are hoping that Eovaldi holds up…….Dunning doesn’t suck……Scherzer is not over the hill and bounces back at some point in early season……..& deGrom isn’t on the IL by September 1, after starting 6 games????

How much HOPING are the Dodgers doing with their $324M man getting rocked essentially every time he steps on the mound…….could be a long 12 years! He gave up 5 ER in 1 inning of work v. the Padres in his MLB debut….,,oh, btw, Dodger’s big acquisition from the Rays got lit up in his debut as well.

The Orioles are praying daily that their two rotation guys come back sooner than later.

On & on…….lots of organizations with World Series aspirations with their fingers crossed.

[JD-TWINS]

If I was the Twin’s pitching coach or if I were their FO or if I were their owner & I read TD routinely, I’d lay into the commenters here.

This isn’t fantasy baseball!!

The Twins had the second best Rotation looking at certain metrics in ‘23. ……..noted in today’s article here they were #2 & predicted to be #6 this year, out of the 30 clubs.

It’s been widely discussed that the Pen is expected to be #2 in baseball this year.

#6 rotation on paper & #2 Pen on paper…….why are people constantly complaining about how bad things look and what a poor job the organization is doing - seriously???

There’s ten playoff teams and we have a “blended” #4/5 staff - accurate? But, “…..,We may get caught by the Tigers….,,,we can’t win a second game in the playoffs due to weak pitching…..”, blah, blah, blah - please give the organization and the players some credit!!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

You don’t think the defending Champion Rangers are hoping that Eovaldi holds up…….Dunning doesn’t suck……Scherzer is not over the hill and bounces back at some point in early season……..& deGrom isn’t on the IL by September 1, after starting 6 games????

How much HOPING are the Dodgers doing with their $324M man getting rocked essentially every time he steps on the mound…….could be a long 12 years! He gave up 5 ER in 1 inning of work v. the Padres in his MLB debut….,,oh, btw, Dodger’s big acquisition from the Rays got lit up in his debut as well.

The Orioles are praying daily that their two rotation guys come back sooner than later.

On & on…….lots of organizations with World Series aspirations with their fingers crossed.

Are you really going to put the Dodgers SP in the same discussion as the Twins?

Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Degrom all have EXTENSIVE history of high to supreme level performances.  Are you really as or more concerned about those guys than Paddack and any of the unproven Twins pitchers they want to fill SP4 and 5?

The Orioles are projected to win 84 games and finish third.  They need more than hope to be WS contenders this year.

If the Twins re-signed Gray and/or Maeda, or made another move (FA or trade) for a quality SP, they would be able to make a legit argument for being a top tier team.  They did not do that.  They let those two go HOPING that Paddack (who has not pitched well since 2019) and Desclafani (a 33 year old injury risk who hasn't pitched well since 2021) somehow pitch well and that some of their AAA prospects (prospects the Twins feel so strongly about they went and got Desclafani anyways) do something at the MLB level.  They are hoping that Ryan (a solid SP3) and Ober (their best chance at a true SP2 IMO) improve.

There is potential for this rotation to be solid, but don't kid yourself.  Many, many things have to go right.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Are you really going to put the Dodgers SP in the same discussion as the Twins?

Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Degrom all have EXTENSIVE history of high to supreme level performances.  Are you really as or more concerned about those guys than Paddack and any of the unproven Twins pitchers they want to fill SP4 and 5?

The Orioles are projected to win 84 games and finish third.  They need more than hope to be WS contenders this year.

If the Twins re-signed Gray and/or Maeda, or made another move (FA or trade) for a quality SP, they would be able to make a legit argument for being a top tier team.  They did not do that.  They let those two go HOPING that Paddack (who has not pitched well since 2019) and Desclafani (a 33 year old injury risk who hasn't pitched well since 2021) somehow pitch well and that some of their AAA prospects (prospects the Twins feel so strongly about they went and got Desclafani anyways) do something at the MLB level.  They are hoping that Ryan (a solid SP3) and Ober (their best chance at a true SP2 IMO) improve.

There is potential for this rotation to be solid, but don't kid yourself.  Many, many things have to go right.

Nobody is comparing rotations! …..you said if we are relying on “hope” with our rotation it’s bad if we’re trying to win a World Series.

My point is 3 of the top 4-5 teams in the discussion for a Championship are based on hope with their staffs. How nervous are the Dodger’s fans over Walker Buehler?

deGrom is nearly hurt 70% of the past 6 years - Eovaldi has had arm problems for years (healthy in ‘23) - Scherzer has a new injury every 2-3 months - that’s my point. I don’t doubt their effectiveness but I seriously doubt their availability and I guarantee their FO & fan base are “hoping” they are healthy.

The Orioles (101 wins in ‘23 with more experience & Corbin Burnes) dropped because the Yankees got their act together but more significantly, 2 of their top 4 starters are hurt …….one maybe indefinitely…… they too are hoping for health!

In ‘23 Maeda threw 106 innings & had a 4.2 ERA ……….. he was maybe mediocre to poor in the Playoffs…….he’s 35. I do not see why anyone would have more confidence in him than in Paddack? Both off rebuilt arms ……in small look, Paddack definitely looked better at the end of ‘23. Tigers are hoping Maeda doesn’t break down!

IMO, Polanco got them Topa & the #76 prospect OF. Nobody in their right mind, after past 2 seasons, could have any reasonable amount of confidence in DeSclafani performing well or for sure.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works.

Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.

The Twins are at major risk if they lose any single starter for an extended period of time, not just Lopez or Ober/Ryan. Nobody is arguing the worst case scenario, not even close. If this team aims to finish last in their division and start tearing things down Boston might be a decent comp. There was no savvy veteran arm signed. There isn't one, let alone two, high tier arms waiting to break into the rotation. This team is more likely to sign a Kuechel clone, throw bullpen games, or hand a start(s) to Randy Dobnak if somebody gets hurt early enough into the season. They're heavily reliant on health/performance question marks in the rotation, and plan B is a handful of minor league arms that haven't proven they can consistently get AA/AAA hitters out. 

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Degrom all have EXTENSIVE history of high to supreme level performances.  Are you really as or more concerned about those guys than Paddack and any of the unproven Twins pitchers they want to fill SP4 and 5?
 

"One of these things is not like the others..."

Overrated Eovaldi had a good season last year, but he's nowhere near the class of Scherzer or DeGrom. not with that career ERA+ of 103. He's also 34 with an extensive history of injuries (not performances), with literally one great season. He's like half the pitcher Sonny Gray has been over their respective careers and no one is putting Sonny in the same category as Scherzer or DeGrom either. 

I would be at least as concerned about Eovaldi as I am about Paddack; at least Paddack is 6 years younger...