Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[arby58]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Here is how I would rank our rotation in terms of durability.

1 Varland. I think he could handle 180-200 innings.  He has shown to be durable.  The question with him, will his ERA be around 4 so he can pitch those innings or 5+ and spend time in AAA.

2.  Lopez.  He can also pitch 180-200 innings

3.  Ober.  He seems to be in the 160-180 range

4. Ryan.  He also seems to be in the 160-180 range

5. Paddack.  He is coming back from injury so expect 120-140 innings

we can work in depth options from here.  If we have another major injury, we have more prospect trade capital to go get a starter if need be. 

Varland has upped innings each of the last three years - 103-143-150 - but I think 180 is where he would top out this year.

Agree on Lopez - he threw 194 last year and 180 the year before.

I've said many times I think Ober will have a break out year. He threw a combined 167 last year, so the range seems about right.

Ryan threw 161 last year and 147 the year before, so the range seems reasonable.

Paddock, though - I'm thinking getting anything over 100 is gravy.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

19 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

"One of these things is not like the others..."

Overrated Eovaldi had a good season last year, but he's nowhere near the class of Scherzer or DeGrom. not with that career ERA+ of 103. He's also 34 with an extensive history of injuries (not performances), with literally one great season. He's like half the pitcher Sonny Gray has been over their respective careers and no one is putting Sonny in the same category as Scherzer or DeGrom either. 

I would be at least as concerned about Eovaldi as I am about Paddack; at least Paddack is 6 years younger...

Obviously Eovaldi is not in the class of the other two, but his track record is also leaps and bounds ahead of any names wallowing at the back end of the Twins rotation.  I have tons more confidence that he will have a successful year than Paddack will.  That was the point I was trying to make...