What Does the Manuel Margot Trade Bring to the Minnesota Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins appeared to have one hole remaining with the bats on their roster, and they filled it on Monday.

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Byron Buxton will be back in center field this season, after missing more than a year of action on the grass. Max Kepler will flank him on one side, with Matt Wallner set to take the other spot. Backup outfield options only included Willi Castro, and with no Michael A. Taylor this time around, a right-handed hitter who could also be a strong defender in center was missing.

Manuel Margot filled the need when Derek Falvey swung a deal Monday with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 29-year-old is an above-average defender, although not the Gold Glove-level type to whom Minnesotans have been treated in recent seasons. He would not be stretched if he were forced to start many games in Buxton’s absence.

Offensively, Margot has never lived up to the billing that would have been expected from a consensus top-25 prospect back in 2017. With a career 91 OPS+, he’s been below-average, even for his position. While that could be a bad thing, his floor remains safe, as his worst tally was an 83 OPS+ in 2019 with the San Diego Padres.

The hope for the Twins here is that Margot can also find some expanded success against southpaws. Although Buxton bats right-handed, he has traditionally dominated righties. Margot has an OPS nearly 100 points higher against left-handed pitching, and his average of .281 and on-base percentage of .341 both would play. Given the left-handed nature of Minnesota’s corner outfielders and Matt Wallner's defensive limitations, Rocco Baldelli also has a late-game replacement at his disposal.

The specific profile that Margot has also complements the Twins' current assets well. His arm is not the calling card, and that means he’s best positioned for center and left field. Kepler isn’t a candidate to be replaced for defensive purposes, and Wallner has familiarity with Target Field’s overhang should he need to shift. If there was a perfect last-minute addition, then Falvey may have hit the nail on the head.

Falvey didn’t make this trade as a one-for-one, either. Along with Margot, Minnesota netted Rayne Doncon. The 20-year-old was an international free agent signed by the Dodgers, and debuted in 2021 as a 17-year-old. Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote at the time, “Doncon is 6-foot-1, 177 pounds with long limbs, a high waist and big physical upside, with a variety of paths his future could go depending on his physical development. He has the body type where early on it looked like he could outgrow shortstop, but so far, he has remained lean and agile enough for the position while getting stronger, showing good defensive instincts and a nose for the ball.”

In 2023, Doncon completed his first full season of pro ball, playing 107 games at Low-A. He posted just a .651 OPS, but was over two years younger than the league average, and he showed pop with 14 long balls. He split time evenly throughout the infield, working at second, third, and short. As the Twins front office accomplished in the Luis Arráez and Jorge Polanco trades, they sought to add firepower beyond the major-league talent that was their primary target. Doncon isn’t the prospect that José Salas was coming into the organization, but there’s reason to like the upside here. This is where thoughts from True Blue LA landed on Doncon after last year.

In grabbing Doncon along with Margot, the Twins hedge their bet of losing former 36th overall pick Noah Miller. The younger brother of Milwaukee Brewers infielder Owen Miller, Noah is already MLB-ready with the glove. The defense has been his calling card since he was drafted, and unfortunately, the bat hasn’t developed. He is still just 21 years old, and time remains on his side, but he produced a .648 OPS with little power at High-A Cedar Rapids a season ago.

As has been a theme in Twins deals this offseason, they are also money-conscious. Getting $6 million from the Dodgers is significant, with Margot’s contract checking in at $10 million this season. He has a $12-million option for 2025, with a $2-million buyout that would be paid by the Rays if the Twins don't exercise the option. The additional dollars should bring Minnesota’s payroll to almost $130 million, which still sits about $25 million below the 2023 outlay.

From a high-level view, it’s hard not to like this deal for the Twins. Margot is a definite upgrade defensively over Castro in the outfield, and there’s a chance he could hit in a platoon situation. Giving up a prospect in Miller who may never hit enough to reach the majors is hardly an overpay, and adding dollars and a flier helps sweeten the pot.

Expect Minnesota to be out on a reunion with Taylor at this point, and Hernández has since announced he is returning to Los Angeles. Although Minnesota was in the running for his services, they may have dodged a bullet and directly benefited from him taking a roster spot with their trade partner.

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Are you satisfied with Margot as the final piece of the Twins' roster puzzle? How much faith do you have in the team's nimble maneuvering, around a caved-in payroll? Let us know.

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[olerud]

What about Matt Wallner????

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Bring on the "he's blocking prospect <insert name here>" comments,,,

He is basically MAT with a lesser glove and a better plate approach (lower K totals).

[farmerguychris]

12 minutes ago, olerud said:

What about Matt Wallner????

I would expect you're correct in what you're saying here - It will likely be Wallner instead of Larnach (as listed in the article) who start next to Buxton. 

I would expect this trade puts Larnach starting the year in AAA again.

[jmlease1]

I'm unenthusiastic about this move. As insurance against a significant Buxton injury I guess it adds to the depth, but I don't see Margot really being the kind of lefty-masher we'd like to see as an OF option. He's gone from a quality defender to a not-so quality defender over the last three seasons and while he does have splits in his career that favor hitting against LHP, it's not like he's been consistently great at it. I'll be concerned that he's going to be one of those veteran players than if he struggles out the gate will keep getting chance after chance or more playing time than he merits with a better option available in Martin (or even Larnach) staying buried in the minors. TB sure seemed to want to get out from under his contract, and LAD barely assigned him a uniform before moving him out. It's a little concerning.

I guess this also means the Twins are feeling certain that Miller won't hit? they might be right, but his glove seemed like it was worth keeping in the system.

It's hardly a disaster, but I'm not feeling very inspired by this move.

[Beast]

26 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Bring on the "he's blocking prospect <insert name here>" comments,,,

He is basically MAT with a lesser glove and a better plate approach (lower K totals).

He’s not basically MAT.  He’s a much lesser defender.  MAT walked at a higher rate and the power production was much better.  Not sure how grounding out a few additional times makes the approach superior to MAT.  I’ll take the home runs and walks, myself.

It’s not the people unhappy with this trade that are the unreasonable ones here, IMO.  It’s the people trying to rationalize this as a positive move.  We gave up a potential future gold glove SS prospect for a replacement level backup OFer, just because he’s free with the cash that is coming along (this does not really “increase” the payroll as the article states - another team is effectively paying him).  It does not improve the team whatsoever over last year (it makes it worse).

[Brandon]

42 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Bring on the "he's blocking prospect <insert name here>" comments,,,

He is basically MAT with a lesser glove and a better plate approach (lower K totals).

He’s blocking us from resigning MAT! 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

22 minutes ago, Beast said:

He’s not basically MAT.  He’s a much lesser defender.  MAT walked at a higher rate and the power production was much better.  Not sure how grounding out a few additional times makes the approach superior to MAT.  I’ll take the home runs and walks, myself.

It’s not the people unhappy with this trade that are the unreasonable ones here, IMO.  It’s the people trying to rationalize this as a positive move.  We gave up a potential future gold glove SS prospect for a replacement level backup OFer, just because he’s free with the cash that is coming along (this does not really “increase” the payroll as the article states - another team is effectively paying him).  It does not improve the team whatsoever over last year (it makes it worse).

You're overexaggerating the difference in walk rates, particularly if you were to compare their careers, and even considering that small difference and that Margot had a down year (at least partially due to injury which also affected his defense) Margot's OBP was 32 points higher last season. A 96 wRC+ compared to a 93 isn't some gulf of production, and I don't think it's smart to count on MAT to replicate what was an outlier season from a production standpoint.

I must have missed where Noah Miller and his .600 OPS in the lowest levels of professional baseball was making this team better.

You're doing an awful lot of rationalization to call him a future MLB-caliber shortstop who would play enough to be eligible for a gold glove, and conspicuously glossing over the prospect they got in return. 

[Mike Sixel]

Margot was actually pretty bad in the field last year.....let's hope he's better this year. He also didn't hit. He's been a league average or better hitter one time in his career. If he's a long term replacement for Buxton, this team loses a ton of offense. A ton.

[Linus]

There was a hole to fill and Falvey has no money available so he swung another Billy Beane kind of deal. Viewed through that lens it’s a good pickup. MAT wasn’t coming here for peanuts. 

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I must have missed where Noah Miller and his .600 OPS in the lowest levels of professional baseball was making this team better.

You're doing an awful lot of rationalization to call him a future MLB-caliber shortstop who would play enough to be eligible for a gold glove, and conspicuously glossing over the prospect they got in return. 

the prospect they got in return seems fine, I was just a fan of Miller's glove at a position the Twins have had some trouble finding guys who could really be plus defenders at for some time. And let's be fair to Miller: career .644 OPS, which he basically was in high-A last season as well: not .600. Is that 44 pts of OPS enough to think he can hit his weight in MLB? Maybe not, but the glove is legit. he hasn't hit well at all in the minors, but he's also just turned 21.

I'm mostly just worried the Margot, who is clearly slowing down, won't be good enough in the field or at the plate to be worth the ABs he could get. I'm less worried that the Twins have missed out on spotting a sudden increase in Miller's hit tool, but I did like his glove. Maybe DeAndrade is a better fielder than I think.

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-dodgers-favorite-returns-after-manuel-margots-to-minnesota/

 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, olerud said:

What about Matt Wallner????

Had to be a Freudian slip - meant to say Larnach will take his spot in St. Paul.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

the prospect they got in return seems fine, I was just a fan of Miller's glove at a position the Twins have had some trouble finding guys who could really be plus defenders at for some time. And let's be fair to Miller: career .644 OPS, which he basically was in high-A last season as well: not .600. Is that 44 pts of OPS enough to think he can hit his weight in MLB? Maybe not, but the glove is legit. he hasn't hit well at all in the minors, but he's also just turned 21.

I'm mostly just worried the Margot, who is clearly slowing down, won't be good enough in the field or at the plate to be worth the ABs he could get. I'm less worried that the Twins have missed out on spotting a sudden increase in Miller's hit tool, but I did like his glove. Maybe DeAndrade is a better fielder than I think.

I loved Miller's glove too, but I can't get Jermaine Palacios out of my head. He was supposed to have a good enough glove to stick in MLB regardless of his batting ability and he showed a lot more potential at the plate in the minors. He flamed out after 30 games. I just don't see a .627 OPS in low-A and a .644 OPS in high-A as significantly more impressive than .600. You have to be an Andrelton Simmons level of fielder to make a difference if you hit like that.

On Margot, he's 29 years old and from the reporting I have read last year he was still recovering from a pretty nasty knee injury sustained in the middle of 2022. I'm not sure it's fair to say he's "clearly slowing down". In 2021 he was nearly as valuable as Kiermaier for the Rays in the outfield. He won't be MAT in the field, but he's a good fielder and he gets on base more than MAT does - I wouldn't bet on MAT repeating last year's outlier power surge either. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

He’s not basically MAT.  He’s a much lesser defender.  MAT walked at a higher rate and the power production was much better.  Not sure how grounding out a few additional times makes the approach superior to MAT.  I’ll take the home runs and walks, myself.

It’s not the people unhappy with this trade that are the unreasonable ones here, IMO.  It’s the people trying to rationalize this as a positive move.  We gave up a potential future gold glove SS prospect for a replacement level backup OFer, just because he’s free with the cash that is coming along (this does not really “increase” the payroll as the article states - another team is effectively paying him).  It does not improve the team whatsoever over last year (it makes it worse).

It doesn't have to make it better than last year (even though it could) it just has to make it better than it currently is.   He is an option that has the ability to not only to hold up if called upon, but possibly excel.   I love Miller more than most think he was turning it around,  however we got a prospect that is currently at a similar level rank wise as Miller with a much higher offensive ceiling.  It a real question who is the better prospect.  This trade is going to be determined by luck and whether either one is able to get to the big leagues.  

[weitz41]

I honestly don't see what the hub bub is all about... Both player best season using OPS+ is 104. Best OBP and SLUG are within 10 points. MAT would not take 4 Mil to play here this season and I can't blame him. As for the prospects neither may turn out or one/both could be the next Cory Seager and the other Fernado Tatis. I'll win money on the Vikings winning a super bowl before I'll plan on either turning out like that.

I should add if they are or were expected to be platoon players how much does their defense really matter?

[DocBauer]

If Margot's knee is healed up, he's an excellent defensive OF. In 2021 he was worth 13 DRS. He can run some and steal bases, and he's got decent power. He's also a 119 OPS+ for his career against LHP. 

I loved the addition of MAT to the club last season and he was a life saver for the Twins. I would have embraced him back without issue. But reports are he wanted the same $10.5M that Bader and Kiermaier received. And the Twins weren't going to do that.

But I'm a little surprised at some of the vitriol tossed Margot's way. I find it hard to believe the Twins...or the Dodgers...would have taken him in any deal until or unless they had checked out his knee to see if it was sound again. Even if he's a step down from Taylor, he's a fine CF if back to his normal self. And while Taylor may have a little more power, his 21 HR was an aberration last season. But Margot actually has a HIGHER career AVG, OB%, and OPS, and OPS+ than Taylor. He has also K'd at a 10% LOWER rate than Taylor, 20% vs 30%. And the two are separated by only a TENTH of a point in BB%, so neither walks more than the other.

If you like Taylor great. So do I. He's got a little more power than Margot and is a notch above defensively. Margot is a better hitter and OB guy who K's less and has a slightly better OPS. They didn't trade for a bum. 

One thing I like about going for a CF option and not the more powerful corner bat is it frees Castro up a little more instead of having to be...potentially...the top backup behind Buxton on a daily basis.

[tony&rodney]

The Dodgers had to take Margot if they wanted to gain Glasnow, which is simple enough to understand from both the Dodgers and Rays points of view. The Dodgers then had to find a team to take Margot. Falvey obliged and gained a player for outfield depth, which he wanted.

Margot is an experienced veteran player who will do his best to contribute wherever and whenever he can. The Twins wanted a veteran for the last roster spot. They got one.

Falvey has the team he wanted. The reduction in roster expenditures had little to do with the decisions. The Twins don't sign FA starting pitchers to large long term deals. What other free agents were available that Falvey wanted? The fans and many of us may have wanted any number of free agents, but that doesn't mean very much. It's Falvey's job to put together a team and here we are ... he has indicated the Twins are done.

The Twins will be fine. The team has enough talent, depth, and minor league help to compete in the AL Central. Falvey got the guys he wanted or those new guys wouldn't be in Ft. Myers right now. 

[August J Gloop]

That's not even Margot in the article about him. You can see the first letters on his back are AR.

[High heat]

I think people view MAT as the healthy everyday CF we saw in ‘23.  That was a career year!!! He isn’t getting any better at 33 and lots of players can’t put up # without consistent ABs.  
 

Margot has been a platoon and part time player he has a skill let that fits assuming Buxton is able to play CF regularly or semi regularly.

[Reptevia]

He’s a relatively expensive blocker of prospects.   I feel about this like I would have felt about Kikè.  Meh. 

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

He’s a relatively expensive blocker of prospects.   I feel about this like I would have felt about Kikè.  Meh. 

He keeps rookies who belong in AAA in AAA; A very smart move.

[Reptevia]

Tomatoe-tomatto. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Sorry if this is mostly cross-posted, but I think the information applies.  

There are plenty of things to like about this deal.  Here is how I see the various factions of it. 

#1.  The straight up trade of Miller for Doncon is probably OK in and of itself.  Doncon is younger with more offensive upside.  Miller may have an MLB glove but right now his bat is nowhere to be found.  That may change, but it hasn't happened yet.  Besides that, we don't need a SS for awhile, so having a younger prospect is more useful/valuable to us than having one closer to the majors. 

#2. Margot is a decent 4th outfielder.  He's not someone to get excessively excited about, but he is a solid ball player.  Definitely a step above Garlick, Cave, etc., and a good insurance policy that can play all three OF positions and hit enough to keep a job. 

#3. Prospect Blocking.  Margo blocks Martin in the same way that DeSclafani blocks Varland.  If we give Martin the job, we have no backup plan at AAA with upside.  In the same way that there is value in having Varland in AAA, there is value in having Martin there.  DeSclafani is the fifth starter because it allows them to keep both him and Varland (who will be at AAA).  If Varland is the fifth starter they have nothing to do with DeSclafani. 

#4. Player Development. This move tells me that they weren't ready to give Martin a job and want him to have some additional healthy time in AAA.  They don't want him playing twice a week coming off the bench for the Twins, but would rather he played nearly everyday in St. Paul.  This is true if they see him as a future important piece or if they want to trade him midseason.  IF he's ripping it up in St. Paul, his trade value could go up a lot.

#5.  Setting the floor.  We've seen this move a lot of times.  Margot's floor is higher (or more consistent) than Martin's.  Even though Martin's ceiling is higher, he is less of a sure thing. 

#5.  Midseason moves.  Santana, DeSclafani, and Margot are easy trade-aways at the deadline IF you no longer need them and could be filler for a more substantial trade move for a starting pitcher. 

I also think that Margo will wind up with more WAR this season than MAT, and I like MAT but he’s not getting any younger.  

Your mileage may vary, but I think it's a decent move.  You may not, and that’s OK too. 

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Tomatoe-tomatto. 

Double error.

[weitz41]

3 hours ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

The Dodgers had to take Margot if they wanted to gain Glasnow, which is simple enough to understand from both the Dodgers and Rays points of view. The Dodgers then had to find a team to take Margot. Falvey obliged and gained a player for outfield depth, which he wanted.

Margot is an experienced veteran player who will do his best to contribute wherever and whenever he can. The Twins wanted a veteran for the last roster spot. They got one.

Falvey has the team he wanted. The reduction in roster expenditures had little to do with the decisions. The Twins don't sign FA starting pitchers to large long term deals. What other free agents were available that Falvey wanted? The fans and many of us may have wanted any number of free agents, but that doesn't mean very much. It's Falvey's job to put together a team and here we are ... he has indicated the Twins are done.

The Twins will be fine. The team has enough talent, depth, and minor league help to compete in the AL Central. Falvey got the guys he wanted or those new guys wouldn't be in Ft. Myers right now. 

The Diamond backs fans say what? Also, the Padres and Mets fans say what? You can have. Fernado Tatis, Mookie Betts, Aroon Judge, Juilo Rodriguez (your welcome to add to this list) BUT if the pieces don't fit together or one piece is missing can you complete the puzzle? 

The accumulation of a team's part and pieces with a championship. Not signing or trading for a single player in February.

I like this team. Let's roll with it and tackle the issues around August 1st. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

The Diamond backs fans say what? Also, the Padres and Mets fans say what? You can have. Fernado Tatis, Mookie Betts, Aroon Judge, Juilo Rodriguez (your welcome to add to this list) BUT if the pieces don't fit together or one piece is missing can you complete the puzzle? 

The accumulation of a team's part and pieces with a championship. Not signing or trading for a single player in February.

I like this team. Let's roll with it and tackle the issues around August 1st. 

Try to read before you hit the quote button and then make whatever comment it is that you are making. I have no problem with whatever it is you might want to say, but the use of the quote feature probably requires some distant connection to what is in the gray. Let it roll is an idea I can see.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

That's not even Margot in the article about him. You can see the first letters on his back are AR.

I saw that and chuckled  a little. Arozarena and Margot don't have too many facial similarities, but when a guy is putting an article together and hurrying to add a photo it is easy enough to make a simple mistake, which we can certainly understand and give a pass. I appreciate that the writers take the time to put out their stuff. No big deal really, which I'm sure you agree with. 

[arby58]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

If Margot's knee is healed up, he's an excellent defensive OF. In 2021 he was worth 13 DRS. He can run some and steal bases, and he's got decent power. He's also a 119 OPS+ for his career against LHP. 

I loved the addition of MAT to the club last season and he was a life saver for the Twins. I would have embraced him back without issue. But reports are he wanted the same $10.5M that Bader and Kiermaier received. And the Twins weren't going to do that.

But I'm a little surprised at some of the vitriol tossed Margot's way. I find it hard to believe the Twins...or the Dodgers...would have taken him in any deal until or unless they had checked out his knee to see if it was sound again. Even if he's a step down from Taylor, he's a fine CF if back to his normal self. And while Taylor may have a little more power, his 21 HR was an aberration last season. But Margot actually has a HIGHER career AVG, OB%, and OPS, and OPS+ than Taylor. He has also K'd at a 10% LOWER rate than Taylor, 20% vs 30%. And the two are separated by only a TENTH of a point in BB%, so neither walks more than the other.

If you like Taylor great. So do I. He's got a little more power than Margot and is a notch above defensively. Margot is a better hitter and OB guy who K's less and has a slightly better OPS. They didn't trade for a bum. 

One thing I like about going for a CF option and not the more powerful corner bat is it frees Castro up a little more instead of having to be...potentially...the top backup behind Buxton on a daily basis.

There is another difference, in that Taylor will be 33 this year and Margot 29. This makes the roster younger in comparison to last year.

[Doctor Gast]

18 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm unenthusiastic about this move. As insurance against a significant Buxton injury I guess it adds to the depth, but I don't see Margot really being the kind of lefty-masher we'd like to see as an OF option. He's gone from a quality defender to a not-so quality defender over the last three seasons and while he does have splits in his career that favor hitting against LHP, it's not like he's been consistently great at it. I'll be concerned that he's going to be one of those veteran players than if he struggles out the gate will keep getting chance after chance or more playing time than he merits with a better option available in Martin (or even Larnach) staying buried in the minors. TB sure seemed to want to get out from under his contract, and LAD barely assigned him a uniform before moving him out. It's a little concerning.

I guess this also means the Twins are feeling certain that Miller won't hit? they might be right, but his glove seemed like it was worth keeping in the system.

It's hardly a disaster, but I'm not feeling very inspired by this move.

The Twins were certain that Miller wouldn't be the type of hitter that they desired (a hitter that hits HRs when not needed, strikes out a ton when we need hits). Miller isn't as confident hitter like Lewis or Martin where he could decide to go against the grain & find his own way. But when coached right, Miller will find his way to be an excellent hitter. But Miller's calling card is his elite golden glove at a premium position, Miller is super undervalued and the Twins should have made him untouchable from any sharp eye team to snatch up. But they did not.

LAD wanted to flip Margot so they could pick Kiki. So they looked for takers. Not finding any takers, they called up their good buddy Falvey. I advocated for Margot when we really needed a CF sub & when Margot was better, But I doubt right now if Margot is that much better than Castro defensively & certainly not against RHPs where we are of greater need for a sub. As a RH option Martin would be a much better option,

I was in favor of trading for Maeda but I wasn't in favor of trading away our top MLB-ready pitching prospect Graterol(I advocated a different trade that included Balazovic), When LAD was very motivated to move Maeda. Here LAD was motivated to move Margot & if the Twins were bound & determined they absolutely needed Margot, fine. But not for our top SS prospect who should have been our future GG SS. That shows very poor evaluation of talent & judgment.