Anthony DeSclafani in the Rotation Raises More Questions than Answers

[Adam Friedman]

Is Anthony DeSclafani enough to boost the rotation of a Minnesota Twins team that wants to be true contenders? 

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

While the acquisitions of reliever Justin Topa and top-100 prospect Gabriel González were exciting pieces to receive for Jorge Polanco as part of a four-player package, the inclusion of Anthony Desclafani revealed that the Twins likely finalized their 2024 rotation in an uninspiring fashion.

The addition of Desclafani leaves the rotation in a concerning spot for a team looking to contend not just for an AL Central title but also a World Series title. Slotting him in as the fifth starter leaves the backend of the rotation mediocre, doesn't address the need for an additional frontline starter to pair with Pablo López, and brings in more injury questions for a rotation full of them. 

Questionable Backend of the Rotation
The Twins went into the offseason with the makings of a strong starting rotation despite the imminent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. They needed to acquire a frontline starter to pair with López, and Chris Paddack; Joe Ryan; and Bailey Ober would fill in. Beyond forming a 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation, the trio at the back would stand above their peers. 

Despite a disappointing 2023, Ryan is projected to post a solid 4.01 ERA by Fangraphs' ZiPS projection system. ZiPS projects Ober to post a 3.98 ERA. These results would be an improvement on the Twins' worst two rotation mainstays from 2023- Ryan and Maeda, who posted a 4.51 ERA and 4.23 ERA. 

If Ober and Ryan, who have shown the ability to outpitch these projections at times, meet these projections, that would be a significant step up on last year's rotation, one of the best in Twins history. DeSclafani, on the other hand, is projected to post a 4.30 ERA. That's okay and is still an improvement on Maeda and Ryan's 2023 performance, but it diminishes a potentially elite backend of the rotation. DeSclafani's presence isn't a disaster by any means, but his taking up a place on the staff prevents the back of the rotation from being the strength it could and should be.

Still Needing a Frontline Starter
With their strong lineup, bullpen, and some strong starters, the expectations for the 2024 Twins are to repeat as division champions and try to make it to the ALCS or beyond. To do that, they need an additional playoff-caliber starter without Gray. 

The front office might argue that Paddack is ready to be that guy after his promising glimpses out of the bullpen in 2023. That may be true, but he has not been good since his rookie season in 2019. Five years and a Tommy John surgery later, he's not a guy to rely upon. 

The Twins also might believe Ryan or Ober can step up, but they didn't show that this past year, and the Twins didn't believe in them when they planned early exits for both of them in the ALDS. Ryan especially may be able to become a high-end number two starter, but he's relying on his improved slider to work, and he needs to keep the ball in the park.

These options are not what a team that is more likely than not to make a playoff appearance per betting odds should plan on. They can still get a frontline starter before the season starts or even at the deadline, but the DeSclafani addition indicates that move won't happen. For now, these are the options, and they need to be better for the team to meet its goals in October.

Injury Questions
On top of the pure talent of the rotation not fitting with the ambitions this organization should have for 2024, it's also riddled with injury questions. Pitchers often have injury concerns, but the fewer injury concerns on the staff, the less likely injuries are to derail a promising season.

Paddack is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched more than 110 innings since 2021. Ober has been fragile for his entire professional career, and his 164 innings in 2023 were the first time he pitched more than 110 innings. 

DeSclafani brings a flexor strain, which he is yet to be cleared from, although there's hope he's ready by Opening Day. These concerns are enough to make one queasy about the rotation entering the year. 

The Jorge Polanco trade had many interesting components and parts to be excited about. But the way the rotation shakes out with DeSclafani as the fifth starter and no additional frontline starter is not where it should be. Will the Twins make another move to upgrade their rotation to one worthy of the team, or is this it?

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[tony&rodney]

In the interest of keeping a positive tone, let us all hope that Louie Varland can pitch 180-200 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

[IndyTwinsFan]

For me, the short answer is No.  To me, at this stage in his career, he's nothing more than roster depth and a fallback option when the inevitable injury to a higher level starter occurs and we need someone else fast.

I'd be more inclined to give #5 innings to Varland or someone else deemed to have a reasonable chance at long-term success.  I like Tony's thought above.  I'd be perfectly fine with that.

[Karbo]

DeSclafini has the potential to be a pretty good 5 hole starter. That said, they are basically entering the season with1 proven starter and 4 potentially good starters. The question for me is how many of these 4 potentials pan out? I have high hopes for Paddack, but worry more about the injury bug with Ober and Deslafini.

[1985Fan]

55 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

In the interest of keeping a positive tone, let us all hope that Louie Varland can pitch 180-200 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

And let’s hope Festa is ready to debut in 2024 and make an impact. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

First off,  Paddack has the highest upside of the starters outside of Lopez.  The velocity and stuff he showed in the playoffs was great.  He has also had 2-3 years to buy into the Twins philosophy.  How many innings he can go who knows,  but I don't see a big reason to hold him back if he starts hitting 150 innings unless he begins to tire.  

Desclafani,  when healthy has decent stuff.  Last year at the beginning of the season he was throwing 93-94 and topping out at 95.  The stuff started to slide as the season wore on and fell off a cliff.  There is a pretty good red flag on the elbow with the prp injections, which is part of the reason we got him so cheap.  However it appears he healed and has been doing his offseason program.  I do think the Twins can help him become a more effective pitcher.  Also at the start of the season and 2021,  he has been very effective when healthy.  The "when healthy" is a misnomer.   His injury history looks similar to Buxton's.  Originally I thought he was a high probability to be an effective 2 or 3 starter if the elbow is healthy.  Right now I am hoping he can pitch 2/3rds to 3/4ers of the season.   maybe #3 to #4 type stuff, which is pretty effective for what is a $4 million dollar pitcher that appeared to be a throw in to get him off the books.  

Right now we have 6 pitchers to get through the season with,  with 2 health question marks in Desclafani and Paddack.  

Now one thing to mention.  His ankle was an issue that has caused him issues.  However he has since had surgery,  but on this I think we have to take it in stride and not be a continual issue. 

For most of his life, it turns out, Anthony DeSclafani was pitching without a groove for the peroneal tendon in his right ankle, his body somehow compensating for that genetic anomaly until late in the 2021 season.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

In the interest of keeping a positive tone, let us all hope that Louie Varland can pitch 180-200 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

Varland with that many innings and a sub 4 ERA would be huge.

[LewFordLives]

I seriously hope the Twins front office is not planning for DeSclafani to be a key part of the rotation. They will be lucky to get 10 starts out of him.

[LewFordLives]

And I completely agree with the premise of the article...... adding DeSclafani creates nothing but questions.  Maybe another shoe will drop in the next couple weeks.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

And I completely agree with the premise of the article...... adding DeSclafani creates nothing but questions.  Maybe another shoe will drop in the next couple weeks.

Maybe a little bit, but you have 6 arms for 5 spots, plus prospects below.  Its clear we don't have the money to address any problems this year so you have to take a chance.  Desclafani is the ? mark.  However I thought he was cleared to play at the end of the season.  Is he still not cleared to pitch as the article states?

 

[Jocko87]

51 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

And I completely agree with the premise of the article...... adding DeSclafani creates nothing but questions.  Maybe another shoe will drop in the next couple weeks.

Be prepared to wait a couple of months for that shoe. However many months away the trade deadline is, that long.

To me, I think a lot of my questions are answered and as a strategy I can see the plan. The biggest thing this front office needs right now is time. Time to figure out the TV deal. Time to understand how good Paddack, Ober and Varland can be. Time to understand which prospects need to be moved on from and who is untouchable.  Time for Miranda and AK to show they are healthy and hitting. Time for some of their targets to fall out of the playoff race. Time to see what the rest of the division looks like.

This is a team that can easily win the division, as currently constructed. This gives them a luxury of being able to wait. I fully agree that another front line starter is needed for the postseason, but we aren't starting the postseason for a while.

The plan, as I see it, is that they are building the bullpen in preparation for that unit to absorb more innings than last year. This makes sense as Paddack, Ober and Varland should all have some sort of innings limitations. Disco fits that same pattern. I'm sure they have ideas that he can be a solid rotation piece but he's not a playoff lynch pin. Just as we saw last year, the moves in the postseason are different than the regular season and the players needs for each are different. He's going to eat innings at a solid level which is very valuable in the regular season.

As I see the roster now, they don't have room for another vet stuck to the 26 man without significantly comprising their ability to rotate the kids from AAA. Sorry in advance, Nick Gordon.

The deadline makes far to much sense for the next move. Let's get the spring started.

[Nashvilletwin]

We need 162 starts.  We have 6 starters.  Let’s assume relatively good health (only one starter is injured at any time) and each starter not named Lopez misses a start every six or seven starts to stay fresh when everyone is healthy.  So López gets 32 starts, leaving 130 starts for the other 5 or 26 starts per guy. If they each average 5-6 innings per start, that’s about 130-150 innings.

As the saying goes: “We’re going to need a bigger boat.”

I have a hard time seeing any of Paddock, DeSclafani, Varland or even Ober reaching 150 innings.  If those four can average 23 starts and about 115-120 innings, we will need a dozen or so starts from Festa, SWR, Widner, bullpen starts and/or Dobnak.  Not a disaster per se, but highly likely we will need those starts.

If we can get anything close to 25 starts, 130 innings, and a 4.30 era out of DeSclafani, he will be a huge success for the money we are paying him.

[Blyleven2011]

DeSclafani doesn't really help for the post season  , yes he'll eat up innings during the season  ...

If the twins are going to get a front of the rotation guy the time is now beforetheseasonstarts , as it is always more expensive at the deadline  , and they have been  awful  in making trades at the deadline  ...

 

On paper Topa helps the team in the bullpen  , he's a late bloomer with a impressive 2023 , hope he repeats ...

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

And let’s hope Festa is ready to debut in 2024 and make an impact. 

I saw some video of Festa a couple days ago - he’s got 4 decent pitches! I think he will be able to throw 75 innings in the Show from July toward October. His curve looked good - sinking change-up - high riding fastball, like Ryan’s - along with a slider. I was impressed.

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

In the interest of keeping a positive tone, let us all hope that Louie Varland can pitch 180-200 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

Hoping everyone gets better is a really terrible plan.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Varland with that many innings and a sub 4 ERA would be huge.

I think Louie can succeed but it sounds like the Everly Brothers in the background, Dreeeam - Dream, Dream, Dream - Dreeeam. Lopez threw 194 innings in ‘23 and we’re expecting/hoping for 200 innings from Varland? Ober threw 164 innings last year - we think he may back up & not reach 150 but hoping Varland throws 200???

Louie should be expected, like most full season, first year guys, to hit 115 innings.

Lopez at 190 again - Ryan at 170 - Ober at 160 - Paddack at 115 - DeSclafani at 100 - SWR & Festa maybe 90 innings combined. That’s approximately 940 innings by starters. Some of Desclafani’s & Varland’s innings may be in long relief?

1450 regular season innings to be played……this leaves 510 BullPen innings. Seems to add up with 11-12 guys through the year in the Pen.

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Hoping everyone gets better is a really terrible plan.

I think there is a pretty reasonable divining line with players. It's more than fair to expect the young players to get better. Once they've peaked, I think it's unreasonable to expect better.

Still, I don't expect Varland to meet those numbers, mostly because I think others should have those innings. I hope there's another big arm added for the rotation and Varland dominates for fewer innings in the pen.

[wabene]

Varland does not have an innings limitation. In '22 he pitched 150 innings and just under that last year while being moved to the pen down the stretch. With his healthy track record, as a full time starter he could easily surpass 175 innings this year. Unless of course he finishes up in the pen again. 

[Doctor Wu]

What's the consensus at this point? Are the Twins done making trades for pitching or is there maybe another major move before spring training? Getting DeScalfani seems like more of an "old Twins" move to patch up a wobbly rotation and add some stability. Yeah, the proverbial innings eater. Or is he? As others have noted, he doesn't really move the needle and make us better. Unless of course he pitches as well as he did three years ago and then maybe, maybe, he becomes a crucial part of the rotation.  But that's all guesswork at this point. I'm beginning to think that the Twins will go with what they have and perhaps try and trade for another arm later in the summer if that's needed. 

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Hoping everyone gets better is a really terrible plan.

Sure seems like that was the Twins plan, not mine.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think there is a pretty reasonable divining line with players. It's more than fair to expect the young players to get better. Once they've peaked, I think it's unreasonable to expect better.

The Twins don't have anyone especially young in their rotation.

Lopez 28, Ryan 28, Ober 28, Paddack 28, Varland 26, DeSclafani 34. They're all at the "it's unreasonable to expect better" age. Some will have better years than others but it's really unlikely they all improve. Festa and Woods Richardson are the age where you could reasonably expect improvement.

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

And I completely agree with the premise of the article...... adding DeSclafani creates nothing but questions.  Maybe another shoe will drop in the next couple weeks.

Unless that shoe is a front-line SP it's all in vain. What are the odds for that to happen? Very slim, if they were serious for that to happen they wouldn't have made the DeSclafani trade in the 1st place.

[Fatbat]

Is there any question about the availability of the 8-9 guys that will likely start games in ‘24.  Just saying 9 guys means that wear and tear will obviously happen but if its a day off here and there, the twins will be just fine throughout the first 162.  The first 6 guys, will get their 130-190 innings. I like the idea of Festa or SWR or both taking on a bigger role later in the season. It’s always a possibility that someone steps up and becomes a true #2 but in reality, we know what we have and we don’t have that guy yet. 

[TopGunn#22]

The elephant in the room is the TV deal.  If they are supposed to get 85% of the $55 million they got last year from Balley, then they should be looking at a windfall of just below $47 million.  Are they going to use ANY of that on 2024 payroll???

If they did, we should be excited about a Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery signing.  How perfect would THAT be?  Both are LH starting pitchers, something it seems like we haven't had since the "W" Bush administration.  Snell may walk too many guys and Montgomery may not have dominant stuff.  But Snell is now a 2-time Cy Young Award winner and Montgomery was tremendous in the playoffs and World Series for the defending champion Rangers.

But we all know it's highly unlikely for the Pohlad's to ever make a move like this.  What is also unlikely is making a trade for an expensive pitcher like a Luis Castillo.  Who knows?  The Twins could still offer Seattle Kepler, Miranda, Danny DeAndrade  and Thielbar for Castillo and the Mariners could just sign Blake Snell (who reportedly wants to pitch for his hometown Mariners).  BBTV calls that trade a slight overpay by the Twins.

What is more likely is a trade deadline acquisition that will be more expensive than the above trade and afford the Twins only 35% of the season as opposed to going out and getting that #2 SP right now.  

[wabene]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins don't have anyone especially young in their rotation.

Lopez 28, Ryan 28, Ober 28, Paddack 28, Varland 26, DeSclafani 34. They're all at the "it's unreasonable to expect better" age. Some will have better years than others but it's really unlikely they all improve. Festa and Woods Richardson are the age where you could reasonably expect improvement.

Lopez really grew or improved as the season went along. He was his strongest and best version of himself come playoff time. His improvement would be to sustain those gains over a full season. Very likely.

Ryan looked great in the first half and had that splitter working. In the second half he had a strange combination of hitting a wall (again), getting injured and then apparently hiding the injury. Hopefully he learned and can focus on the fortitude it will take to perform at a high level consistently. Some improvement is likely.

Ober finally got through a season mostly unimpaired. All he has to do is continue work on his arsenal and finish strong. Likely.

Paddock probably feels stronger than he has in years with his new elbow and a year of working out. Combined with arsenal refinement, it is very likely he has his best year in a long time. 125-150 innings. This is doable.

Varland has only had a short stint starting in the majors. It started well but he ran into trouble. This is his chance to prove he can be more than a fringe starter. Louie's eye opening run as a reliever will instill a confidence that will spill over into his starting. Some improvement is very likely, how much is to be determined. 

DeScalfani may be stronger after resting his elbow. I'm not counting on it and hope if he falters, they move on promptly. 

😂 Obviously this is a pretty optimistic look at things. That is why they call me fan. 

[D.C Twins]

"Is Anthony DeSclafani enough to boost the rotation of a Minnesota Twins team that wants to be true contenders? "

No... no it is not....

[jmlease1]

I mean, asking whether DeSclafani boosts the rotation for the playoffs is the wrong question from the jump, since that's not why he was signed. He's here to provide depth at the back of the rotation with the expectation that the team will need 7-9 pitchers taking starts across the season because of injuries, ineffectiveness, rest, etc. Now, we're going 6 deep (assuming Varland stays a starter, which I suspect he will) before asking Festa, SWR, etc to take the mound in MLB. this was a regular season move all the way, not a playoff one.

Maybe the team will look to upgrade the rotation midseason, but this is also a season where Ryan, Ober, or Paddack show that they can be a real partner for Lopez in the playoffs. Certainly could happen; none of these guys are someone who would be embarrassing in the playoffs and all 3 would give you a chance to win. I'm still high on Ryan, and I suspect he's learned his lesson about hiding an injury. Ober was very good last season, and I'm not going to write him off as a playoff-caliber starter after 1 chance.

If DeSclafani is healthy, he'll be useful and a good contributor. I think he can replace Maeda's innings in the regular season. That feels like what he's here for. Higher end work will need to come from improvement/consistency from Ober/Ryan and a return to form from Paddack.

[mikelink45]

I keep thinking of the Twins SP selections in the Falvey years and yes - DeSclafini is the Ace if we just at Bundy, Price, Shoemaker and Happ to the rotation.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The elephant in the room is the TV deal.  If they are supposed to get 85% of the $55 million they got last year from Balley, then they should be looking at a windfall of just below $47 million.  Are they going to use ANY of that on 2024 payroll???

They don't have a long-term TV deal so I don't expect them to add any long-term contracts. I don't really understand why they signed Carlos Correa if they were going to cut costs two years later.

[beckmt]

I still think Varland will be in the pen.  SWR, Festa, Raya are all going to be in St. Paul and one call away.  We will have other bullpen pieces down there also.  

Bullpen pieces vary from year to year, but we have the makings of a very good bullpen, wish it was a little deeper, but still good enough to cause concern in the opposing clubhouse of being a couple of runs down starting the 6th inning.  

Long term you also have Lewis and Cantinero coming back (sorry don't know how to spell his name), in St. Paul or Wichita), you never know how these things will play out, but we seem to have enough depth to survive this year.  Long term you are correct, our minors are thin in pitching, so hope we can find some more.