Taking Stock in Center Field

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins hopefully still have a move coming to address the rotation, but it’s becoming more likely that the position player side is set. With the center field remaining a question mark, it may be worth breaking down where the Twins sit.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

In 2023, the Twins did well to insulate center field with Michael A. Taylor. They knew Byron Buxton wouldn’t be ready to play to begin the season, and as it turned out, he never advanced beyond DH duties. Many hoped they would do the same in 2024 despite some optimism around Buxton’s repaired knee, but the current group may be what they’ll go with. So, what can we expect in center field in 2024?

Byron Buxton
Buxton is a significant question mark, as he's reached 100 games played in center field once in his career (2017) and hasn't reached 80 games played at the position since 2019. He underwent surgery on his ailing knee again this offseason, and the Twins are hopeful that he can return to form in some facet in 2024.

Buxton’s upside remains one of the highest on the entire roster, and if healthy, he’s the undisputed everyday center fielder for as long as he can physically handle it. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether the Twins would be better off getting a locked and loaded starting worthy center fielder should things go south again in 2024. Buxton’s health could have a massive swing on the Twins season.

Willi Castro
Willi Castro is approaching Astudillo-esque folk hero status in Twins territory, deservedly so. He had a career year in which he showed versatility and chaos-inducing baserunning while finishing as an above-average hitter. After being thrust into center field action, he adjusted and made himself a viable option.

Castro is likely the first in line should Buxton miss time again, and the hope is that 2023 was a breakout season and not an outlier. As a switch hitter, Castro can hold his own in center field as a near-everyday option for what should be a potent lineup around him if it comes to that.

Nick Gordon
Nick Gordon continued to mix into center field when a foul ball off his shin knocked him out for the entire second half of the 2023 season. He certainly has the athleticism to hold down the position. However, he’ll likely still have some learning on the fly after advancing through the minor leagues predominantly as a middle infielder.

Gordon struggled mightily before his injury last season, with a .503 OPS in his 93 plate appearances. It’s possible this was just a small sample slump, but what the Twins think of the former top prospect is unclear. Now, out of options, Gordon will have to earn a roster spot out of Spring Training as a 4th or 5th outfielder, and the ability to play center field would help his chances tremendously.

Austin Martin
Austin Martin’s bat showed some life in St. Paul last year, following up an injury-delayed and slow start to his season by slashing .287/.428/.456 the last two months. At this point, he’s likely to wind up either at second base or the outfield, and the Twins and Martin himself seem confident he can play a solid center field.

Martin will debut in 2024; it’s just a matter of when and where. Like Gordon, he’s a former infield prospect who likely needs more experience to hone his outfield skills. If he can play a solid center field, the offensive concerns become less of an issue, but it was encouraging to see him show some pop down the stretch in 2023.

Bubba Thompson
Bubba Thompson was claimed by the Twins this week on waivers. The former first-round pick has bounced around the league but boasts the third-highest sprint speed in baseball. This makes him an obvious candidate to play some center field, though what he can provide beyond that remains to be seen.

Thompson has a career .591 OPS in just under 250 at-bats, and his minor-league track record suggests this may not be a fluke. Regarding the Twins needing a right-handed outfield bat, Thompson has hit southpaws worse in his career so far. It’s possible he doesn’t head north with the team come Opening Day, but it’s easy to see why the Twins took a flier on the speedy former top prospect.

The Twins probably have more options for center field than most teams, but the list is riddled with question marks. From health to performance to inexperience, center field may be one of the more fluid positions on the 2024 roster. The Twins are banking on one of these players putting together a solid season up the middle, and to be fair, there’s a lot of potential for things to turn out exceptionally well.

Still, it’s fair to wonder whether they should have done more to set a floor at the position as we’ve seen them do so much in years past. There are still a few options left should they still decide to do so, but it’s unclear whether this is a priority. 

Can the Twins get an adequate return from their current group of center fielders in 2024? Should they still be looking to add a more established name to this group should things break the wrong way? Let us know below!

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[nclahammer]

During a Minnesota Twins winter caravan stop, Willi Castro did say that centerfield was his favorite position to play.  I like the team depth with Castro backing up the outfield/infield and Kyle Farmer backing up the infield.

[Doctor Gast]

MAT was a lifesaver '23 but Buck is in a different position this year than last year. I'm optimistic with the depth of Buck in CF with Castro (SH) & Gordon (LH) as back-up with Martin (RH) in the wings. Whatever the season shakes out we need Buck ready for the postseason.

Gordon couldn't break into MLB via INF but shined in the OF when given the chance. Their bright idea of reinducing Gordon in the INF was another bust. Gordon miserablly failed on both sides of the experiment, keep Gordon in the OF. I think all are hungry to show what they can do in '24. including Thompson.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, nclahammer said:

During a Minnesota Twins winter caravan stop, Willi Castro did say that centerfield was his favorite position to play.  I like the team depth with Castro backing up the outfield/infield and Kyle Farmer backing up the infield.

Agree 100%.

The FO is done in CF and the Buxton horse will be ridden to start the year (knock on wood).

TBH, I’m getting more and more comfortable if no big trades happen and we break camp with our starting nine being Buxton (CF), Wallner (LF), Kepler (RF), Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Julien (2B), Kiriloff (1B), Jeffers (C) and Polanco (DH). Our bench could very well be Farmer (IF), Castro (OF), Vasquez (C) plus one of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, or Larnach (acknowledging that Martin and Gordon have the most positional flexibility).  Those 13 position players will be the best lineup in the AL Central by a good margin. And if Buxton goes down (or anyone for that matter) we have the depth to deal with it. 

If we end up running out the clock on Kepler, Polanco and Farmer, it’s ok as their cost is actually lower than their value and no other team seems prepared to pony up someone we need/want in return (i.e. MLB ready/proven starting or relief pitching). And next year we will have reinforcements (Lee and Rodriguez at least) on the way with more salary flexibility as well. Let’s go win this year!

We still need starting pitching depth to handle probably 25+ starts over the course of the year.   If we hold our nose could we stomach Trevor Bauer on a cheap one year deal? Depending on how that or someone else works out, Varland could also be our swing man at various times during the year (so we kinda pick up relief help as well).

Only three weeks until pitchers and catchers report!!!

 

[DJL44]

At Twinsfest yesterday Buxton announced that the knee is much improved, and he expects to be back in CF this season. 

Byron Buxton to play center field for Twins in 2024 (mlb.com)

Quote

“What excites me? I’m going back to center,” Buxton said. “As simple as that. Nothing makes me happier than playing the outfield.”

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

MAT was a lifesaver '23 but Buck is in a different position this year than last year. I'm optimistic with the depth of Buck in CF with Castro (SH) & Gordon (LH) as back-up with Martin (RH) in the wings. Whatever the season shakes out we need Buck ready for the postseason.

Gordon couldn't break into MLB via INF but shined in the OF when given the chance. Their bright idea of reinducing Gordon in the INF was another bust. Gordon miserablly failed on both sides of the experiment, keep Gordon in the OF. I think all are hungry to show what they can do in '24. including Thompson.

Just curious, if you have Castro AND Gordon on your opening day bench, who else do you have there? To me, it’s hard to find a roster spot for Gordon, but I could be wrong

[Karbo]

I have no confidence in Gordon. I'd rather give that roster spot to Martin or Larnach or Miranda.

[mikelink45]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

At Twinsfest yesterday Buxton announced that the knee is much improved, and he expects to be back in CF this season. 

Byron Buxton to play center field for Twins in 2024 (mlb.com)

 

I think I have seen this prediction before - it is wait and see time. 

[mikelink45]

Please -  Bubba is not the answer - with his name he needs to be on a southern team.  I do not think Gordon is the answer either and I liked him, but Castro has taken the spot and it is time to see if Martin really has anything to offer.  

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I think I have seen this prediction before - it is wait and see time. 

Last spring the plan was "Buxton is going to DH". This is a definite improvement.

[DJL44]

If you want to look back at where things were last April.

[old nurse]

56 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just curious, if you have Castro AND Gordon on your opening day bench, who else do you have there? To me, it’s hard to find a roster spot for Gordon, but I could be wrong

If they start the season with a four man rotation there is a spot for a couple of weeks.  From there things have a way of  disintegrating

[hitterscount]

Castro is a viable option in CF.  The focus should be placed on finding a starting pitcher and I believe first base is not as strong as it needs to be... Miranda, Kirloff and Buxton... to much injury history over multiple seasons... but as far as CF, Castro and Martin can  get the job done when Buxton needs a break or goes down.    

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Put me in the camp of having plenty of decent options.  None are Byron Buxton at his peak performance (likely including Byron Buxton), but there look to be some capable players out there.  After Buxton, I would start with Castro but would look to include Austin Martin at the first opportunity.  I don’t have much faith in Nick Gordon to have sufficient offensive production to keep the job.  

I think calling Castro “Astudillo-esque” probably does him a bit of a disservice.  Astudillo became popular mostly because of his appearance and nickname of the Turtle along with a few quirky baseball skills, not so much because of his true achievements.  While Castro is “fun” because he makes some things happen on the basepaths, he seems to be (so far) a genuine major league contributor that is an excellent asset to the team.  That’s actually a lot more fun than a chubby guy with funky hair rounding the bases.  

[High heat]

I think they are banking on Buxton in CF and part time or utility option to supplement.  (Castro, Martin) 

 

If Buxton can’t go in CF and teams needs a regular in CF like last season I think it will be throw guys out there and sink or swim.  
 

I don’t think Gordon is on this team as currently constructed.  Unless they trade Farmer or Polanco for pitching.  

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The FO is done in CF and the Buxton horse will be ridden to start the year (knock on wood).

There is not enough wood in the whole of North America to make me feel comfortable starting Buxton in CF again. But I'll knock until my knuckles bleed if that'll help.

[jorgenswest]

Gordon is projected to be the better hitter of the utility options by ZIPs. He also has a career RAA of 0 at 2B and SS. After his first year in CF he put up an RAA of 0. He may not return from injury but has the highest upside bat of all of the CF bench options. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

Castro is a viable option in CF.  The focus should be placed on finding a starting pitcher and I believe first base is not as strong as it needs to be... Miranda, Kirloff and Buxton... to much injury history over multiple seasons... but as far as CF, Castro and Martin can  get the job done when Buxton needs a break or goes down.    

During the interview portion yesterday, Julien said he has been told he will be playing a lot of 1b this year. I don’t know what to make of that information, but I kind of like it. 

[stringer bell]

21 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Gordon is projected to be the better hitter of the utility options by ZIPs. He also has a career RAA of 0 at 2B and SS. After his first year in CF he put up an RAA of 0. He may not return from injury but has the highest upside bat of all of the CF bench options. 

I don't dispute that Nick Gordon is a major league player, but even if he's a slightly better hitter than Willi, it doesn't make him more valuable than Castro. I would go so far as to say if the comparison were center field only, I'd still prefer Castro's combination of okay defense (in center), superior base running and comparable hitting (especially since he's a switch hitter) to what Gordon brings to the table. 

[hitterscount]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

During the interview portion yesterday, Julien said he has been told he will be playing a lot of 1b this year. I don’t know what to make of that information, but I kind of like it. 

So we can assume Polanco will be starting at 2nd? I have no issue with that (in fact prefer keeping him over Kepler), but how do we feel about Julien playing 1st? You don't see many 1st base players leading off and will he be a defensive liability? It feels like we have enough quality players to offer and make a move for a solid SP.    

[Squirrel]

31 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

During the interview portion yesterday, Julien said he has been told he will be playing a lot of 1b this year. I don’t know what to make of that information, but I kind of like it. 

That Kirilloff will be 1st/OF/DH, Julien will be 1st/2nd/DH … since they didn’t sign anyone to fill in that spot, that’s my guess. ‘A lot of’ is a relative term … more than last year, certainly, could seem like ‘a lot of’ and I expect more than last year.

[GV14218]

Really, enough already about counting on Buxton in 2024.  “Buxton is a significant question mark, as he's reached 100 games played in center field once in his career (2017) and hasn't reached 80 games played at the position since 2019.”  Oh, and let’s also add that he’s now 30 years old.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

31 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

So we can assume Polanco will be starting at 2nd? I have no issue with that (in fact prefer keeping him over Kepler), but how do we feel about Julien playing 1st? You don't see many 1st base players leading off and will he be a defensive liability? It feels like we have enough quality players to offer and make a move for a solid SP.    

I don’t know about that. Julien can still play 2b, or Lee, or Martin, or Farmer. Polanco (if he isn’t traded) could also be 2b/1b/dh right? Julien said it too, it’s a lot to do with matchups. 

[JD-TWINS]

I struggle with the “……..Julien will be playing a bunch of 1B this year” from above. I get he said this, but don’t see the value in displacing Kirilloff with him……2023 comparison here

Eddy J: 338 AB’s - 33 XBH - .263BA - 130 OPS+

Alex K: 281 AB’s - 26 XBH - .270BA - 117 OPS+

Kirilloff wasn’t that much different than Julien if % of playing time is factored - Kirilloff wasn’t healthy at times as well. Health needs to happen soon or they can’t roster him! Better 1B defender v. Julien. Julien’s OBP was about 45 points higher….. reflected in OPS+. Need BOTH in line-up!

Gordon, had a terrible April in ‘23 and was coming around with a handful of XBH in his last 2-3 weeks. He was out after May 16 - much more than just the 2nd half. He hit .272 in 405 AB’s in ‘22 & started 43 games in CF. He had a 111 OPS+ in ‘22 with 9 HR & 28 doubles. Decent play in CF. Project the 405 AB’s over a 600 AB season & he hits 14-15HR with 40 plus doubles & 6 triples………just saying, his ‘22 was very good for a guy that had to play 3 different positions through the year ……….started filling in for Polanco - then platooned in LF - then played a bunch in CF. He’s gotta prove he can hit - for sure. W/o options, it seems he gets the nod over Martin out of camp. Larnach can’t play CF, so he’s got to really hit in Spring Training or he’s out in April as well……….. March 30 roster here??

Wallner - Buxton/Castro - Kepler (Gordon)

Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff (Miranda)

2 catchers………. = 13

Larnach & Martin fill in OF spots as needed with options…….only way I see Polanco staying and fitting in is as DH - 2B - 1B (20% - 20% - 30% respectively & then no Miranda).

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

During the interview portion yesterday, Julien said he has been told he will be playing a lot of 1b this year. I don’t know what to make of that information, but I kind of like it. 

That's not what I perceived. He said they had him practicing some at first. I don't remember it being said he would be playing there a lot. What Julien did say was because he grew up in Quebec he got a ton of work in the cages hitting (it shows), but didn't get much time practicing fielding. So he said since he has turned pro he has concentrated on taking thousands more grounders than other players in an effort to catch up. He is extremely focused on improving his fielding and I think it showed last year. I like him primarily at second, the same for Kirilloff at first and Polo covering DH and second. Eddie is athletic enough to be a good second baseman and I like him there. Then you have Farmer backing up the left side. With that being said and as much as I like Polo, if he can be moved to help get a starter, that is what I would do. Julien is then your second baseman. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, wabene said:

That's not what I perceived. He said they had him practicing some at first. I don't remember it being said he would be playing there a lot. What Julien did say was because he grew up in Quebec he got a ton of work in the cages hitting (it shows), but didn't get much time practicing fielding. So he said since he has turned pro he has concentrated on taking thousands more grounders than other players in an effort to catch up. He is extremely focused on improving his fielding and I think it showed last year. I like him primarily at second, the same for Kirilloff at first and Polo covering DH and second. Eddie is athletic enough to be a good second baseman and I like him there. Then you have Farmer backing up the left side. With that being said and as much as I like Polo, if he can be moved to help get a starter, that is what I would do. Julien is then your second baseman. 

I apologize if I misstated it, but he did say he was told that he would get a lot of work at 1b too, but getting grounders in (due to not being as able to growing up in Quebec) is a focus. He did close that thought by saying he would play anywhere on the field if it helps the team win.

[wabene]

@Cory Engelhardt no apologies necessary. I just watched that segment again, the Julien interview comes on at 2:21:00 (this is an almost 8 hour video, lol.). 

I'm obviously a huge fan of Eddie and think he can be a real headache for your opponent in the lineup during the playoffs. This is a guy you can win with. I'd like to see him focus on second, hitting leftys and just continuing to refine his approach at the plate. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I love Julien too, he seems like a good kid and a hard worker. I think he is someone they can win with too

[Fatbat]

This is the deepest and most talented list of guys lined up for CF in the past 5 years.  I will take a  matured, healthy Buxton over at least 20 other starting CF’s in MLB.  I would even put Castro in the top 20 CF options in MLB.  Martin is the rookie that needs to prove he belongs. Gordon is the under achieving reclamation project and Bubba is the take a flier on what should have been the next Buxton 1st rd pick.  We got all we need in CF options for 2024. 

[4twinsJA]

Should mention Kiersay in CF depth. He has speed, can steal bases and play well in CF. Not that he is plan B. But, if only consider CF, may be better option than Gordon. Kiersay is good depth at AAA, especially with Twins injury history.