Twins Not Looking To Trade For Prospects, Seeking Need-For-Need MLB Move

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dan Hayes over at The Athletic (subscribe if you don't already, Hayes and Gleeman produce outstanding Twins content) wrote up the current trade situation in Minnesota.

As always, it talks about the patience of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine and their willingness to ride right into Fort Myers with the roster they have in place if no deals materialize. What I found most interesting is that the Twins appear unwilling to move Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, or Kyle Farmer for prospects. They are seeking trades that fill "need-for-need" with other MLB teams; in other words, swapping big-league players.

This strategy could place significant limitations on their ability to swing a deal this offseason.

View full rumor

[Cory Engelhardt]

It does feel like a coded message tbh at is meant to be heard by a team or teams they are talking with. 
my guess, multiple moves do happen between now and March 1

[DJL44]

That's like saying "I only want to trade stocks directly for bonds, I don't want to sell the stocks for cash and then buy bonds with that cash". Prospects are liquid assets.

[tony&rodney]

Nothing has really changed in over a year on the trade news front regarding Kepler, and Polanco and Farmer were added to Max this offseason. The Twins are trying win games and flipping productive experienced major league players like Jorge, Max, and Kyle for prospects might help in future years but it will cost wins in this coming season. Thus no deals thus far. The vast quantity of speculations on how to offload Kepler and Polanco for backend pitchers or future players was never going to be a sound strategy favored by the Twins. 

Trades can still occur and Polanco is available for the right price. Right now the Twins are sitting in a better spot to win their division (ALC)  than any other team in the American League is in their divisions (ALE or ALW). The cost for Polanco (or Kepler) is nowhere near the figures put out by BTV. Falvey knows this and so do a host of other teams. A trade will be tricky because either the Twins blink for less than full value or another team feels the need to make a gamble for a productive player and agrees to the price set by Falvey. I'm fine with no trades, but will continue to maintain that any trade must clearly make the Twins a better team this year.

[stringer bell]

I think it's hard to make a trade when you don't want to take on salary. A Gray for Petty trade resulted in the Twins taking on over $10M in salary plus costing them a first round draft choice. Comparing to the Arraez-López deal Luis had a lot of value because of three years of team control. To get the equivalent of Gray or López, they are going to have to part with more talent and treasure.

I maintain that the Twins will acquire a starting pitcher, but the guy they get will either need to "be fixed (like Alek Manoah)" or who is coming off injury or ineffectiveness. 

[harmony55]

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade.

Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players.

Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts.

In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner.

Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November.

The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation.

Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

[darin617]

None of the 3 listed players can bring back good rotation help by themselves. Unless they add prospects with Kepler/Polanco they won't be able to trade them for useful players.

So technically the Twins are being honest with us on them.

[Cory Engelhardt]

39 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade.

Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players.

Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts.

In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner.

Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November.

The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation.

Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

I don’t see the twins trading Lewis. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

That is a trade that is likely to get one of two GMs involved in the deal fired which makes it very unlikely to happen.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade.

Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players.

Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts.

In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner.

Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November.

The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation.

Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

In any number of other posts I have suggested that it will be difficult to obtain a player such as Kirby or Gilbert. Other teams are bound to ask about Lewis. I do not believe either team takes the risk but it makes some sense. Adding a guy from each side might be useful. Lewis ignited a number of Twins fans last year and Falvey did pick him as draft pick #1-1. I'm not sure Seattle is willing to trade Gilbert (or Kirby) for Lewis and the Twins would be reluctant to move their guy as well. It seems like any move that occurs will be in March.

[SteveLV]

Assuming Gilbert and Lewis are both studs.  I don't do that deal. I don't believe in trading an everyday great player for a great SP who only plays once every 5 days at best.  Add in the greater risk of injury to pitchers in general (setting aside Lewis' specific injury history) just makes this a poor idea.

If Lewis goes forward to hit .290 with over 850 OPS for the next 5 years you look like a fool for trading him.

[jorgenswest]

The Mariners are about as likely to trade Gilbert as the Twins Lewis.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Assuming Gilbert and Lewis are both studs.  I don't do that deal. I don't believe in trading an everyday great player for a great SP who only plays once every 5 days at best.  Add in the greater risk of injury to pitchers in general (setting aside Lewis' specific injury history) just makes this a poor idea.

If Lewis goes forward to hit .290 with over 850 OPS for the next 5 years you look like a fool for trading him.

This has been a common thought and it makes a ton of sense. The argument from another viewpoint is that Gilbert or Kirby throw 1,000 innings with a 3.00 ERA in that same time period while Brooks Lee hits .280 with a 800+ OPS and wins a couple of Gold Gloves at third base. 

I would be very uncomfortable doing a Lewis for Gilbert/Kirby (I actually believe Seattle likes Gilbert more), but I can see a rationale. Nevertheless, I don't think anyone needs to worry about this deal from either team.

[sweetmusicviola16]

An interesting trade proposal was brought upon tonights MLBTR Live chat: Twins trade Jorge Polanco to Seattle for SP Emerson Hancock. I'm sure other pieces would get involved but that is the type of trade that would intrigue me.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

Assuming Gilbert and Lewis are both studs.  I don't do that deal. I don't believe in trading an everyday great player for a great SP who only plays once every 5 days at best. 

Pablo Lopez faced 801 batters in 2023, and he didn't even finish in the top ten in MLB in this regard.  No batter in the majors had that many plate appearances.

 

[old nurse]

50 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Pablo Lopez faced 801 batters in 2023, and he didn't even finish in the top ten in MLB in this regard.  No batter in the majors had that many plate appearances.

 

Does a first baseman get to count the 1200 putouts to go with plate appearances 

Did the pitcher who finished with more batters faced have a higher ERA?  Just a glance, the higher inning pitchers seemed to have a lower WHIP 

[JesusisLord7]

I really dislike Falvey as the GM and frankly I don't understand him. I'd be moving Polanco, Vasquez and Kepler NOW for a high upside prospects and reinvesting the money saved for pitching. Those 3 contracts might get you enough money to go get a Blake Snell. Does anyone think we could use a legit left handed starter? When is the last time we had one of those? Francisco Liriano for a 1/2 season until he got hurt and was never the same? And why not trade high upside minor leaguers for high upside minor leaguers? Our team is so out of balance and we sit idle. I speak as direct as I can. We will never win a world series with Polanco in our lineup. Ditch the guy. I'd even be willing to move Carlos Correa for elite pitching and let Brooks Lee roll at short stop. We need more guys like Pablo Lopez if we are really ever going to contend. 

 

[Old fox]

Lewis is on my untouchable Twins list. 
I like Lozard(Marlins), Gilbert (Mariners), Burnes (Brewers). I am ok with the Twins if they traded Julien, Polanco and 2 high prospects Rodriquez & DeAndrate.  It seems like a big price to pay. However, this maybe the market price at this time. On the Twins side I believe we can trade these players and replace them with prospect Lee and other high prospects. 

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Does a first baseman get to count the 1200 putouts to go with plate appearances 

 

Short answer: no.

Longer analysis: no, of course not.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade.

Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players.

Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts.

In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner.

Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November.

The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation.

Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

Craziness!

Royce Lewis is like A-Rod before PED’s.

He hit 4 grand slams in 5 weeks as a rookie. 2 HR’s in his first playoff game. His offensive profile is a ceiling that’s open ended. Best Twin’s talent since Puckett at the plate….better power than Mauer………pretty similar to Morneau in the box, but more athletic.

135-140 games per year affected by Lewis v. 35 games per year with a starting pitcher.

I get that Gilbert is durable and has good stuff and has tremendous value to nearly any franchise - he’s not that different than Ryan with actual results. The team pays pitchers to get positive outcomes - innings - wins - consistent competitiveness. Strikeouts & low ERA tend to lead to those good outcomes but the stats aren’t what the organization is chasing.

At this point, Varland - Festa - SWR - Winder - Headrick will have to help get the Club to the deadline along with the #1-#4 guys. Maybe we can trade for a guy to add depth for the stretch at that point.

If it’s my team I offload Polanco’s salary & spend it along with another $5M to sign Clevinger…….starter issue solved for next 2 years. Can still pursue a nice trade for an arm and if everyone performs we make a trade at the deadline to strengthen our position player portion of the roster.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

An interesting trade proposal was brought upon tonights MLBTR Live chat: Twins trade Jorge Polanco to Seattle for SP Emerson Hancock. I'm sure other pieces would get involved but that is the type of trade that would intrigue me.

Falvey will not look to add a milb pitcher like Hancock for Jorge Polanco. Do you believe that Jordan Balazovic would have brought the Twins Gleybar Torres a couple of years ago? Will David Festa bring in a starting centerfielder of note. Polanco is a good player. Yes, the Twins have Julien and more, but a team doesn't just shed important players for prospects similar to what they already have in their system.

A number of people keep suggesting that getting rid of Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, and Farmer would free up money to sign a free agent. That isn't how it works and the Twins are not in on either Montgomery or Snell. We don't know what is going to happen, but dumping payroll  at this time will not lead to an AL Central win. Perhaps something loosens after the free agents sign and teams look at where they need players. I'm thinking that the value for Polanco is greater than many expect and possibly too large to trade at all.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JesusisLord7 said:

Ditch the guy. I'd even be willing to move Carlos Correa

FYI https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

You can see the contract terms more or less and who has what clauses. For example, Carlos Correa has a no trade clause. 

Also, teams are not required to have a left-handed starter.

[JD-TWINS]

59 minutes ago, Old fox said:

Lewis is on my untouchable Twins list. 
I like Lozard(Marlins), Gilbert (Mariners), Burnes (Brewers). I am ok with the Twins if they traded Julien, Polanco and 2 high prospects Rodriquez & DeAndrate.  It seems like a big price to pay. However, this maybe the market price at this time. On the Twins side I believe we can trade these players and replace them with prospect Lee and other high prospects. 

Agree generally.

I don’t see Burnes being nearly as good a fit as Luzardo. Luzardo 3 years of control, minimum, left……Burnes FA after ‘24. I know many may think I’m nuts but I don’t trade to a same league competitor to make them better.

The more I look at a Julien’s stats the more I think his mix of OBP & power is very difficult to replace. Polanco - Rodriguez - couple other guys for Luzardo would be a dream come true.

Can’t trade Lewis!!……I really don’t think trading Julien makes sense either.

Lee was untouchable to me last week & prior but now I think it depends upon the opportunity & the return.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Something is brewing.  This is public posturing and may or may not be entirely true.  Give it a week. 

I don't know for sure if anything will happen, but there is something going on. 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t trade Lewis!!…

Why not? 

I'm not suggesting Royce is the guy to go, but Harmony55 brought up a valid idea for discussion within a post that is focused on MLB for MLB players. In such a post, Lee, EmRod, and other milb guys are not on the table. I think all of the various ideas for putting together minor league prospects with Polanco have been worked to death. That is why the Harmony55 question was thrown out there.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Why not? 

I'm not suggesting Royce is the guy to go, but Harmony55 brought up a valid idea for discussion within a post that is focused on MLB for MLB players. In such a post, Lee, EmRod, and other milb guys are not on the table. I think all of the various ideas for putting together minor league prospects with Polanco have been worked to death. That is why the Harmony55 question was thrown out there.

He’s a Top 10 offensive player at 25 or under…..have you seen him hit?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Old fox said:

Lewis is on my untouchable Twins list. 
I like Lozard(Marlins), Gilbert (Mariners), Burnes (Brewers). I am ok with the Twins if they traded Julien, Polanco and 2 high prospects Rodriquez & DeAndrate.  It seems like a big price to pay. However, this maybe the market price at this time. On the Twins side I believe we can trade these players and replace them with prospect Lee and other high prospects. 

Agree generally.

I don’t see Burnes being nearly as good a fit as Luzardo. Luzardo 3 years of control, minimum, left……Burnes FA after ‘24. I know many may think I’m nuts but I don’t trade to a same league competitor to make them better.

The more I look at a Julien’s stats the more I think his mix of OBP & power is very difficult to replace. Polanco - Rodriguez - couple other guys for Luzardo would be a dream come true.

Can’t trade Lewis!!……I really don’t think trading Julien makes sense either.

Lee was untouchable to me last week & prior but now I think it depends upon the opportunity & the return.

[Aerodeliria]

Nice back-door statement with excuses built in. This off-season has had a particularly irritating tone from upper management. Beleive me...I want to be wrong but it seems like they are going to sit pat....

[harmony55]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Craziness!

Royce Lewis is like A-Rod before PED’s.

He hit 4 grand slams in 5 weeks as a rookie. 2 HR’s in his first playoff game. His offensive profile is a ceiling that’s open ended. Best Twin’s talent since Puckett at the plate….better power than Mauer………pretty similar to Morneau in the box, but more athletic.

135-140 games per year affected by Lewis v. 35 games per year with a starting pitcher.

I get that Gilbert is durable and has good stuff and has tremendous value to nearly any franchise - he’s not that different than Ryan with actual results. The team pays pitchers to get positive outcomes - innings - wins - consistent competitiveness. Strikeouts & low ERA tend to lead to those good outcomes but the stats aren’t what the organization is chasing.

At this point, Varland - Festa - SWR - Winder - Headrick will have to help get the Club to the deadline along with the #1-#4 guys. Maybe we can trade for a guy to add depth for the stretch at that point.

If it’s my team I offload Polanco’s salary & spend it along with another $5M to sign Clevinger…….starter issue solved for next 2 years. Can still pursue a nice trade for an arm and if everyone performs we make a trade at the deadline to strengthen our position player portion of the roster.

A projection of 135-140 games a year for Royce Lewis is optimistic for a player who since 2019 has played only 118 games combined across all levels. Lewis' fortunes depend largely on good health.

[dxpavelka]

And if they DO trade these guys for prospects, the same folks bitching about them not doing so will bitch about them "giving up on the 2024 season."