Twins Not Looking To Trade For Prospects, Seeking Need-For-Need MLB Move

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Nice back-door statement with excuses built in. This off-season has had a particularly irritating tone from upper management. Beleive me...I want to be wrong but it seems like they are going to sit pat....

It's almost like they think they know more than we do...

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Nice back-door statement with excuses built in. This off-season has had a particularly irritating tone from upper management. Beleive me...I want to be wrong but it seems like they are going to sit pat....

I’ll take that bet. 

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

Does a first baseman get to count the 1200 putouts to go with plate appearances 

This doesn't really work. You might think about the 3028 pitches thrown by Pablo Lopez in 2023. I would not make a comparison between pitches thrown and putouts by a first baseman, but you can maybe see why all teams hold the really good starting pitchers in such high regard. Every team needs pitching.

Once upon a time the Cincinnati Reds needing a pitcher traded an "old 30" Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, who was a terrific 26 year old starting pitcher. Both guys had fantastic careers. Pitching can be very costly. The question is always what a team will pay.

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco & Kepler are studs in their prime, they are 100% ready to go. How long has it been since Polanco was allowed to play healthy? He's been dominated when healthy & he's going to mash this year. Play Julien at 1B. Kepler has found his groove he's going to mash. Kepler is in his contract year. He was pumped last season don't you think he's going to be super pumped this season? Other teams know this but they think they can pass off on them a bunch of lotto tickets. No, thank you! Are you still perturbed that they didn't do that last year with Kepler? It made more sense last year than this year. But I'm against trading any of our great players for lotto tickets.

Teams think we are desperate to dump payroll and want to make a killing. The message that was sent was the right one. 

[tony&rodney]

 

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s a Top 10 offensive player at 25 or under…..have you seen him hit?

I have seen most of Royce Lewis' plate appearances. That hasn't been very many thus far. I'm not putting down Lewis in any way nor have I at any time. Lewis had some big hits, made some noise, and garnered a following on Twins Daily. He has a bright future in my opinion. It is a little early to compare him to anyone who has played a full season though. Lewis hasn't even played half of a year yet. At age 24 Lewis has 239 PA, ARod had 3515 PA. It is never a good idea to make unfair comparisons.

To my earlier points, other teams will bring up his name just as Arraez was the ask last offseason. I'm uncomfortable with the idea of trading Lewis and do not expect it to happen. However, guessing the future is always tough and trading an Emmanuel Rodriguez, someone who hasn't even had an at bat at AA yet, could also be a terrible idea. We may be surprised by who is traded in a transaction. Perhaps the Twins have their roster already.

[tony&rodney]

double entry

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade.

Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players.

Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts.

In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner.

Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November.

The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation.

Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

Much like the Arraez-Lopez trade, Seattle would have to kick in more to account for the extra year of control. But I can't imagine the Twins care so little about fan morale that they'd follow up a payroll decrease with trading their homegrown face of the franchise that just won them their first playoff game (and series) in 19 years. That'd just be adding insult to injury to an already annoyed fanbase.

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Much like the Arraez-Lopez trade, Seattle would have to kick in more to account for the extra year of control. But I can't imagine the Twins care so little about fan morale that they'd follow up a payroll decrease with trading their homegrown face of the franchise that just won them their first playoff game (and series) in 19 years. That'd just be adding insult to injury to an already annoyed fanbase.

Agree. I think Mariner fans would feel the same way. They would also expect the Twins to kick in more due to the premium on starting pitching.

[wabene]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's like saying "I only want to trade stocks directly for bonds, I don't want to sell the stocks for cash and then buy bonds with that cash". Prospects are liquid assets.

That is true that prospects could be considered liquid assets. In this case there is a difference from your example. You can trade a major league asset, weakening your current team, with the hopes of using those acquired assets or cash to eliminate the created weakness and even improve the team. The problem is unlike purchasing bonds which you can always do, there is no guarantee that you will be able to acquire a desired asset through free agency or trade. You may just be left with the weekend team. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

What is funny is what this article is based off of they make it very clear currently they don't plan to trade Kepler.  They more feel they have a glut of infielders and Polanco and Farmer are the primary trade pieces.  Neither one of those will get a ton unless paired with a prospect from our end.  

Lewis and Lee are by far our biggest trade chips.  I would rather not trade them but if someone wants to massively overpay I am willing to listen.  

[harmony55]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Much like the Arraez-Lopez trade, Seattle would have to kick in more to account for the extra year of control. But I can't imagine the Twins care so little about fan morale that they'd follow up a payroll decrease with trading their homegrown face of the franchise that just won them their first playoff game (and series) in 19 years. That'd just be adding insult to injury to an already annoyed fanbase.

One could argue that the injury concerns more than compensate for the one-year difference in team control. Since 2019 Royce Lewis has played in only 118 games across all levels. Logan Gilbert has not missed a start since making his MLB debut in May 2021.

The fan morale issue has some validity.

[tony&rodney]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Much like the Arraez-Lopez trade, Seattle would have to kick in more to account for the extra year of control. But I can't imagine the Twins care so little about fan morale that they'd follow up a payroll decrease with trading their homegrown face of the franchise that just won them their first playoff game (and series) in 19 years. That'd just be adding insult to injury to an already annoyed fanbase.

I believe Arraez was even more popular to Twins fans than Lewis. 

Falvey, Dipoto, and other front office folks look for ways to strengthen their teams. It is impossible to know how various people value any player. We are just guessing. Writers and various sites are also just guessing. People crunch data endlessly to make their arguments and valuations but in the end it is the people in the front office who make the calls and they have guys who crunch numbers who advise them.

I will throw out a guess here and say that the Twins are not interested in a trade of Polanco for Woo. Again, just a guess and many others including Seattle will see it differently.

The one thing I will add is that 30 years old is not the end of the line for an athlete. Mookie Betts is moving to second base full time, supposedly, as a 31 year old. It is always difficult to know when an athlete can no longer meet the physical demands of professional sports. I don't believe Jorge Polanco is nearly done.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

One could argue that the injury concerns more than compensate for the one-year difference in team control. Since 2019 Royce Lewis has played in only 118 games across all levels. Logan Gilbert has not missed a start since making his MLB debut in May 2021.

The fan morale issue has some validity.

I'm sure the Mariners would try to make that argument, yes. But it's not one I'd be sold on if I were the Twins FO. I mean using 2019 as the cutoff is a little misleading in that he didn't miss anytime in 2020 due to injury so you're skewing data there. He had 2 major knee injuries for sure, but then using his injuries as the reason he's less valuable is saying you believe he's likely to suffer a 3rd torn ACL in the same knee. That's not an argument I'd be swayed by if I were the Twins FO, and I'd demand more in return for that extra year of control. I'd argue Gilbert is every bit as likely to blow out an elbow as Lewis is to blow out his knee.

If they're willing to trade Gilbert for Lewis they're already admitting they aren't worried about the injuries. You wouldn't trade your top trade piece for someone you don't think can stay healthy.

[harmony55]

39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I believe Arraez was even more popular to Twins fans than Lewis. 

Falvey, Dipoto, and other front office folks look for ways to strengthen their teams. It is impossible to know how various people value any player. We are just guessing. Writers and various sites are also just guessing. People crunch data endlessly to make their arguments and valuations but in the end it is the people in the front office who make the calls and they have guys who crunch numbers who advise them.

I will throw out a guess here and say that the Twins are not interested in a trade of Polanco for Woo. Again, just a guess and many others including Seattle will see it differently.

The one thing I will add is that 30 years old is not the end of the line for an athlete. Mookie Betts is moving to second base full time, supposedly, as a 31 year old. It is always difficult to know when an athlete can no longer meet the physical demands of professional sports. I don't believe Jorge Polanco is nearly done.

FanGraphs and Steamer project a healthy Jorge Polanco with a 2024 WAR of 2.5 in 609 and 622 plate appearances, respectively, after Polanco averaged 394 plate appearances the past two seasons.

A healthy Polanco has value but his guaranteed $11.25 million salary may limit his surplus value.

Much of the risk with Polanco rests with his health.

[harmony55]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm sure the Mariners would try to make that argument, yes. But it's not one I'd be sold on if I were the Twins FO. I mean using 2019 as the cutoff is a little misleading in that he didn't miss anytime in 2020 due to injury so you're skewing data there. He had 2 major knee injuries for sure, but then using his injuries as the reason he's less valuable is saying you believe he's likely to suffer a 3rd torn ACL in the same knee. That's not an argument I'd be swayed by if I were the Twins FO, and I'd demand more in return for that extra year of control. I'd argue Gilbert is every bit as likely to blow out an elbow as Lewis is to blow out his knee.

If they're willing to trade Gilbert for Lewis they're already admitting they aren't worried about the injuries. You wouldn't trade your top trade piece for someone you don't think can stay healthy.

The chances are nearly nil that the Seattle Mariners would be willing to trade Logan Gilbert for Royce Lewis.

However, the discussion has been thought-provoking. Thank you.

[Jocko87]

I'm no longer expecting anything until someone springs an ACL in spring training, at the earliest.  The Twins are also taking that risk obviously, but they can also afford to be patient.  A lot can change once injures start rolling in.  If something happens earlier, I'll just be pleasantly surprised.

[August J Gloop]

Every time we bring up Polo and Kep, it needs to be restated that it's up to the Twins if they want to eat the salary and turn both into much more desirable assets. For the Ms and other Ms, that results in free production plus something to flip at the deadline. For real contenders like ATL and PHI, it opens the door to getting under the Luxury Tax threshold if they're just over it. 

That's the main impetus behind what I would think will drive a Max Fried trade in ATL. It will likely be after whatever fan fest ATL runs, to limit the season ticket blowback. A reasonable fan knows ATL will win the division with or without Fried, so getting under the tax threshold is probably worth it. This would be ATLs 2nd consecutive year over it, and that's where scores really add up.  Kep plus a middle top prospect helps ATL out both in the field at at the bank. For the Twins it essentially would be 25M for 1 season of Fried and a comp pick. Would be a definite yes, even in this economy. The only problem could be the quality of the prospect. Might be too much closer to top than middle for comfort. 

[mickster]

23 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

Gilbert and Lewis provide an interesting comp although neither team would likely sign off on a one-for-one trade.

Gilbert comes with four arbitration years of team control with a set 2024 salary of $4.05 million. Lewis has five years of team control including four likely arbitration seasons.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Lewis a surplus value of $74 million and Gilbert a surplus value of $65.9 million. Less than two months ago, on November 25, BTV gave Lewis a value of $44.2 million and Gilbert a value of $73.9 million. The BTV volatility raises questions about how MLB front offices value the two players.

Gilbert's value comes from his durability. The 26-year-old right hander has not missed a start since his MLB debut in May 2021, taking the mound every fifth game, totaling 88 starts.

In contrast, Lewis has missed 245 days to injuries in the last two seasons alone. The former No. 1 draft pick has stellar minor league stats and has impressed in a small sample of 70 MLB games. We all wish the 24-year-old Lewis good health but his injury history could raise a red flag for a potential trade partner.

Seattle might shy away from a hitter named Lewis who has undergone two knee surgeries. Kyle Lewis had played 76 MLB games when the Mariners' 2016 first-round draft pick was named 2020 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 24 season. Kyle Lewis remains unsigned after being nontendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks in November.

The unlikely trade would fill long-term needs of each club. Jose Miranda could handle third base until Brooks Lee is ready. The Mariners would shave about $3.4 million from their 2024 payroll but probably would not secure enough savings to pursue a free agent replacement for Gilbert in the Seattle rotation.

Again, just for kicks. Thoughts?

It would hurt a bit, but I would do this.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

23 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Keeping the theme in mind, just for kicks would anyone trade Royce Lewis for Seattle right hander Logan Gilbert?

I guess the question really is are you actually willing to trade Royce Lewis for a few more innings of a guy who isn’t quite as good as (or at best, similar to) Bailey Ober?  I’m not. 

https://stathead.com/tiny/khcvs

[jmlease1]

I mean, I assume the Twins would be willing to trade Polanco or Kepler or Farmer for prospects, but only if they already had a deal lined up to trade prospects for the MLB pitching they need. Three team deals are hard, though.

[harmony55]

20 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I guess the question really is are you actually willing to trade Royce Lewis for a few more innings of a guy who isn’t quite as good as (or at best, similar to) Bailey Ober?  I’m not. 

https://stathead.com/tiny/khcvs

Other perspectives on Bailey Ober and Logan Gilbert:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=140&pagenum=2&pageitems=30

[Cris E]

I don't think the Braves have the rotation depth to get rid of Fried and still get deep into the playoffs. If you remove him that puts a 1.0 WAR guy in the #5 spot (and even less lining up behind him in AAA) and assumes Chris Sale is going to fill a spot all year without injury and 400 year old Charlie Morton doesn't die in his sleep. In the NL East that's not going to hold up through Halloween.  They can;t go that light in the rotation regardless of cost.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Other perspectives on Bailey Ober and Logan Gilbert:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=140&pagenum=2&pageitems=30

Still no. Slightly better projection, but not remarkable enough to justify trading a Royce Lewis. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't know of too many sure things in this world, but one thing I am certain of and will do a Joe Willy Namath. The Twins are not trading Royce Lewis this off season or season. I guarantee it.

This regime has not been afraid to make trades, and even trade from their prospect stash. But they have never traded from the very top. I suspect they won't now either. So Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez and Festa should not be expected to be traded.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

But they have never traded from the very top.

Arraez? AL batting leader.

[Brandon]

I think the Twins will wait to make a move.  I can see a minor move.  But I am not sure they will make one for a mid rotation starter.  I think the play is to go with what they have and plan on Canterino being the 6th starter initially.  He would be someone that could be a difference maker.  Or one they bank on to begin the season as the 6th starter in AAA.  Festa, SWR and Dobnak as spot starters as well.  I think that overall we are probably good to go in the rotation at least through the all star break.   We can always make a trade by the trade deadline.

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Arraez? AL batting leader.

was referring to prospects only

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This doesn't really work. You might think about the 3028 pitches thrown by Pablo Lopez in 2023. I would not make a comparison between pitches thrown and putouts by a first baseman, but you can maybe see why all teams hold the really good starting pitchers in such high regard. Every team needs pitching.

Once upon a time the Cincinnati Reds needing a pitcher traded an "old 30" Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, who was a terrific 26 year old starting pitcher. Both guys had fantastic careers. Pitching can be very costly. The question is always what a team will pay.

You do not need to take every comment as serious. Don’t talk down to people. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

You do not need to take every comment as serious. Don’t talk down to people. 

Not sure how you see that comment as "talk down" as it surely was nothing but a use of numbers to show how different stats don't necessarily work because of differences in positions. Nothing intended.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

was referring to prospects only

Ok. So Jenkins. I thought you were referring to Lewis. No worries.