Make a Valiant Effort to Avoid Shortsightedness

[Cody Schoenmann]

Despite Twins ownership making a shortsighted decision to cut payroll when fan morale was as high as it has been in 20 years, it is crucial for those who follow the team not to follow in their footsteps. Luckily, there is a significant reason for Twins Territory to rekindle their optimism toward the team, even when those at the top act parsimoniously.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams - USA TODAY Sports

Entering the 2023 MLB season, a peculiar mixture of cautious optimism and impenetrable angst overhung the Twins. Carlos Correa was signed long-term, but his ankle could give out. Frontline starting pitcher Pablo López was acquired, but the team had to part ways with the beloved Luis Arráez to do so. The team had a respectable first half of the 2022 season, but the wheels fell off after the All-Star break, and they missed the postseason. Fans wanted to give themselves to the Twins, but, as with all professional Minnesota sports teams, empirical rationality wouldn't let them. 

Fast-forward to the following offseason, and the mood is vexingly similar, despite the organization winning their first playoff game since 2004. Much of the frustration surrounding the team is due to ownership imposing significant, unnecessary payroll cuts in response to not having a regional broadcasting deal. The Pohlad family had the opportunity to strike the iron while it was hot and allow the front office to fortify an already formidable roster, yet they are electing to wallow in self-inflicted paralysis in the name of saving tens of millions of dollars in the short term.

The way Twins ownership is choosing to act is disheartening. It should be criticized, but that doesn't mean those who follow the team need to take a broadly pessimistic approach to a group that just provided fans the best moment this franchise has enjoyed since defeating the "Moneyball" A's in 2002. Suffering because of a sports team is a quintessentially Minnesotan behavior, but wouldn't it be nice to defy that stereotype?

Over the past three seasons, the Twins' payroll has steadily increased, despite continually placing between 16th and 18th in MLB:

• 2021: $125.27 million (16 of 30)
• 2022: $134.40 million (18 of 30)
• 2023: $153.71 million (17 of 30)

Twins ownership's choice to steadily increase payroll five out of the last six offseasons (2020 notwithstanding) has allowed the organization to become one of the two consistently contending teams in the lowly AL Central, alongside the Cleveland Guardians. Though the team has voluntarily regressed to their 2021 salary numbers, that doesn't mean the on-field product will be subject to the same backward trend. 

After ending the 18-game playoff losing streak and winning their first postseason series since 2002, the second-most significant highlight of the Twins' 2023 season was the unexpected youth movement headlined by three rookie position players: Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner. This triumvirate, which generated 155 (Lewis), 136 (Julien), and 144 (Wallner) wRC+ marks over 901 combined plate appearances in 2023, is set to make an estimated $2.22 million in 2024. Beyond these three young core pieces of the franchise, other key contributors are estimated to be above-average players at owner-friendly rates as well:

• Joe Ryan: $740,000
• Bailey Ober: $740,000
• Louie Varland: $740,000
• Jhoan Duran: $740,000
• Griffin Jax: $740,000
• Brock Stewart: $740,000
• Kody Funderburk: $740,000
• Ryan Jeffers: $2,425,000
• Alex Kirilloff: $1,350,000

The 12 core contributors noted are expected to make $11,175,000 in 2024. This is also commonly referred to as "$175,000 more than what Joey Gallo made in 2023." To further illustrate how much of a bargain these players are for the World Series-hopeful Twins, the 12 of them (only one of whom will be over 30 years old in 2024) are projected to generate a combined 18.2 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) in 2024. Mixing this assortment of young, cost-effective talent with a veteran core of López, Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler, the Twins have 17 of their 26-man roster filled and are expected to manufacture 32.9 fWAR at the price of $88,401,190 in 2024.

 

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and the Twins front office have done an admirable job constructing a balanced, winning roster for less than $100 million in total. Though the team's decision-makers' ability to assemble a roster that is projected to still win the AL Central despite abruptly being forced to cut payroll is honorable, it doesn't absolve the owners of their short-sightedness.

Luckily, the Twins don't have any dire areas of need to address this offseason, but there are various moves the organization ought to explore making before entering the 2024 season. The list of additions the Twins need to consider includes:

• A frontline or back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher
• A mid- to high-leverage reliever
• An adequate center field insurance policy for the oft-injured Buxton
• A right-handed batter who could play first base, both corner outfield spots, and hit for power

In a typical offseason, these areas of need could be adequately addressed for roughly $25-30 million, hypothetically increasing the Twins' payroll for 2024. If the Twins were receiving the roughly $60 million they were getting from Bally Sports North, how the front office addressed these needs could have been much different. The Twins could have offered Marcus Stroman a contract worth more than the two years and $37 million the New York Yankees gave him. The team could have offered Kevin Kiermaier more than the $10.50 million the Toronto Blue Jays gave him for one season. Instead, they will likely fill the roles these reliable veterans could have occupied with unproven commodities like Varland and Willi Castro.

Frustration will remain prevalent, but it is crucial not to lose sight of the advantageous situation the Twins find themselves in. Whether a franchise resides in a large market with an owner (or ownership group) who is willing to splurge on free agents and trade targets (i.e., the Los Angeles Dodgers) or exists in a small market with a frugal owner (i.e., the Tampa Bay Rays), the most successful teams garner long-term success through signing international free agents and drafting and developing players in a sustainably successful manner. The Twins, who live in the middle section of that spectrum, sign, draft, and develop at a sustainably successful rate, which drives their success. 

It is reasonable to be upset at Twins ownership for not allowing the front office the luxury to spend on free agents the likes of Stroman or Kiermaier (who could help the team take the next step toward their World Series aspirations), but the organization still has one of the most robust foundations in the league. This type of foundation is an essential pillar for short- and long-term success. Though fans shouldn't have to endure this form of disappointment, it is vital not to lose sight of the bigger picture, something ownership has done by shortsightedly cutting payroll.

Does this unfortunate reality give you a greater appreciation of the team's front office and player development department? How are you balancing excitement about the team with anger at the owners? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[wabene]

Their eventual payroll hasn't been established. Even they can't know what the final number will be. Based on their comments it appears to me the payroll will fall somewhere between 125 and 140 million. So when you say the team has voluntarily regressed to their 2021 payroll of about $125m, I don't think that has been established yet. We will see. It is true that it is the owners alone who don't want to see the Twins continue to spend at least to their market share. For example I'm guessing Falvey would agree to a $200m payroll and wouldn't have a Ryanesque aversion to spending all of it. 

[Major League Ready]

Here is the problem with the premise of this article.  The players which made this the highest payroll team in Twins history had little to do with the team’s success.  Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez all produced very poorly. Only one relatively high paid player produced and that was Max Kepler and most people here were calling for him to be traded. Jorge Polanco and MAT would fall somewhere in between.

The players most responsible for the surge were Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, and Donovan Solano.  All of whom were among the lowest paid players.  On the pitching side, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez were the most impactful.  They were both acquired in trade with a modest salary.  Among the RPs, it was a bunch of low cost RPs like Jax, Stewart, and even Cody Funderburk.  Of course, Emilio Pagan who was hated was the most expensive of the lot.

The premise that record spending led to success in 2023 is deeply flawed.  Beyond this relatively obvious conclusion, if you wanted to make a case the Twins are cheap you should have provided the payroll rank compared to the revenue rank.  There is also no mention of the fact they had a revenue anomaly last year in that they had $30M in BAM money.   How are we to conclude their relative willingness to spend without knowing the relative amount of money coming in?  I am disappointed payroll is going down too but to conclude spending drove success in 2023 lacks objectivity.

Position Player WAR.  The highest paid players are highlighted.

[jorgenswest]

No anger or frustration from me. Baseball is entertainment. It is not worth anger.

I look forward to the season. I look forward to seeing high school start up in February where I live. I look forward to being at the minor league games.

I think I prefer the Twins position where we follow prospects as they come up the ladder and watch them get that opportunity. It was awesome to see Minnesota kid Matt Wallner this summer and those big hits. I don’t need Stroman. Give me Varland. Do they even make it through the system in New York or Los Angeles before getting traded? 

[nicksaviking]

I'm not interested in the Pohlad's saving money, but if it was going to happen, this was a good year for it. They have lots of good, young but cheap players on the roster and few holes to fill. Regardless of the TV money, this would have been an organic year to see a lower payroll.

Aside from a couple of pie in the sky names, this free agent class stinks. I have no interest in Marcus Stroman who can't get his own outs and would force Baldelli to run a defensive specialist lineup every fifth day, or Kiermaier who hasn't been able to string together two productive offensive seasons in a row in seven years.

As always, they were going to need to trade for help in the rotation. As for the offense, there were only three names I thought were a fit and logical for this team based on position, strikeout concerns and a need to get reliable, not streaky/sporadic, offensive production. Lourdes Gurriel is gone, but Rhys Hopkins and Justin Turner are available. Should they fail to sign one of them, or someone of that caliber whom I personally don't find appealing, then I'll jump on the bandwagon to complain. Otherwise, I didn't want them to sign players just to sign players.

[Doctor Wu]

Right now I am just looking forward to, or rather imagining/hoping/wishing for a healthy full season from Royce Lewis, Buxton, and Correa. Would that be wonderful or what?

[Karbo]

I'm curious to see if this Amazon deal goes thru and if it has an effect on the Twins, or if it will be early enough to free up some more $$.

[Doctor Wu]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'm curious to see if this Amazon deal goes thru and if it has an effect on the Twins, or if it will be early enough to free up some more $$.

I'm  very curious too, but I imagine if/when the deal comes through, any money coming to the Twins won't come in time to sign any top-tier free agents. 

[Beast]

On 1/16/2024 at 6:59 AM, Major League Ready said:

Here is the problem with the premise of this article.  The players which made this the highest payroll team in Twins history had little to do with the team’s success.  Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez all produced very poorly. Only one relatively high paid player produced and that was Max Kepler and most people here were calling for him to be traded. Jorge Polanco and MAT would fall somewhere in between.

The players most responsible for the surge were Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, and Donovan Solano.  All of whom were among the lowest paid players.  On the pitching side, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez were the most impactful.  They were both acquired in trade with a modest salary.  Among the RPs, it was a bunch of low cost RPs like Jax, Stewart, and even Cody Funderburk.  Of course, Emilio Pagan who was hated was the most expensive of the lot.

The premise that record spending led to success in 2023 is deeply flawed.  Beyond this relatively obvious conclusion, if you wanted to make a case the Twins are cheap you should have provided the payroll rank compared to the revenue rank.  There is also no mention of the fact they had a revenue anomaly last year in that they had $30M in BAM money.   How are we to conclude their relative willingness to spend without knowing the relative amount of money coming in?  I am disappointed payroll is going down too but to conclude spending drove success in 2023 lacks objectivity.

Position Player WAR.  The highest paid players are highlighted.

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to tout as a championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins had very little depth two years ago and they were a team waiting to fall apart in July. Trading was a plan to avert the inevitable and the 2022 season turned out about how they looked, even early in the year. Having a Correa may have had some influence on how Falvey saw that team.

The addition of depth with the signings of Vazquez, Solano, Stewart, Gallo, and a few other pieces along with the trades for Taylor, Farmer, and Lopez gave length to the team. This allowed for the younger players to sift into the lineup as their talent and performances shown. 

The story for this coming season is unfinished but right now the Twins look stronger to me than in prior years. The hope for the Pohlads to sign a FA starting pitcher, cost be damned, has never been a thing for this ownership even if it looks now like an easy upgrade that doesn't disturb the current depth. The team should be better this year.

No angst for me at this time. Sure it would be nice to add a #2 SP, a decent additional reliever, and a guy like Rhys Hoskins but the risk of losing players via trade might tip or disturb the reasonable depth and have unseen consequences. Hopefully a good media deal evolves in the coming weeks, one fair to the team's finances and to fans. The Twins do need to consider the coming increases in player salaries over the next few years as they build the roster. There are a few prospects waiting for a chance who could make significant contributions when their opportunity arrives. This offseason the team may be better off by letting the roster develop on its own.

[JD-TWINS]

47 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Right now I am just looking forward to, or rather imagining/hoping/wishing for a healthy full season from Royce Lewis, Buxton, and Correa. Would that be wonderful or what?

Agreed…….Lewis is a 5.0 WAR guy if he plays 135 games………Buxton & CC totaled 1.8 WAR in ‘23 & with “decent” season from CC & a 115 games of offensive availability from Buxton their total gets to 5.5 WAR with ease….they just need to be healthy & it happens.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to you as an championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

Let the individual games create some entertainment for you. Fans have no control over the finances. As far as corporate goes, sports organizations might be the most accountable of all large businesses. You can vote for whomever you please but representatives vote how they please. A baseball fan enjoys watching little league, high school, amateur teams, the minor leagues, and MLB. Your choice as a fan is the level of expertise you wish to see and the time, effort, and money you wish to spend. Falvey was given far larger budgets than Ryan ever was allowed but he has limits too. There isn't any reason to be a fan of or criticize either guy as they do what they do within the walls of their job. Leave the money side alone before it ruins whatever joy you ever found in the game. The Twins should be a fun team to watch this summer and pretty good too.

[Karbo]

41 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm  very curious too, but I imagine if/when the deal comes through, any money coming to the Twins won't come in time to sign any top-tier free agents. 

But it could make a difference if they want to make a trade even as late as the deadline

[Fatbat]

I think it’s actually a blessing to not have a budget to throw at the gallos and shoemakers of the FA world of reclamation projects. I would have liked to sign a FA ace pitchers but honestly, Id rather see one come out of nowhere from within the organization. Its a way better story to write in October than trying to be the Dodgers.  We will always be the underpaid, underrated flyover team.  It doesn’t mean we will suck in October.  One look at the NFL this week and you wont see many of the big names around. Sports has a way of humbling even the biggest of egos so leta just hang around for a couple more frozen months and see what this team has come opening day.

[laloesch]

47 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm  very curious too, but I imagine if/when the deal comes through, any money coming to the Twins won't come in time to sign any top-tier free agents. 

If the evidence is this offseason so far, I don't expect any moves of significance at all.

[laloesch]

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins had very little depth two years ago and they were a team waiting to fall apart in July. Trading was a plan to avert the inevitable and the 2022 season turned out about how they looked, even early in the year. Having a Correa may have had some influence on how Falvey saw that team.

The addition of depth with the signings of Vazquez, Solano, Stewart, Gallo, and a few other pieces along with the trades for Taylor, Farmer, and Lopez gave length to the team. This allowed for the younger players to sift into the lineup as their talent and performances shown. 

The story for this coming season is unfinished but right now the Twins look stronger to me than in prior years. The hope for the Pohlads to sign a FA starting pitcher, cost be damned, has never been a thing for this ownership even if it looks now like an easy upgrade that doesn't disturb the current depth. The team should be better this year.

No angst for me at this time. Sure it would be nice to add a #2 SP, a decent additional reliever, and a guy like Rhys Hoskins but the risk of losing players via trade might tip or disturb the reasonable depth and have unseen consequences. Hopefully a good media deal evolves in the coming weeks, one fair to the team's finances and to fans. The Twins do need to consider the coming increases in player salaries over the next few years as they build the roster. There are a few prospects waiting for a chance who could make significant contributions when their opportunity arrives. This offseason the team may be better off by letting the roster develop on its own.

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly.  Hopefully Ober, Varland, and Paddack can step into the void and fill those shoes.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly.  Hopefully Ober, Varland, and Paddack can step into the void and fill those shoes.

I believe they will be fine. I liked both Gray and Maeda but there was never going to be any assurance that they would repeat their performances, although they easily could. I'm ready to see what Ober, Varland, Paddack, Festa, and others can do from the mound. More to the point, the Twins were not going to sign Gray and/or Maeda or any FA SP. Why worry about that which is beyond your control?

[chinmusic]

7 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly. 

Yes. I feel the Twins biggest need is a front line starter. A legit complement to Lopez would make a huge difference to their fortunes. Still too many financial unknowns, but I have a sense that it likely will happen sometime during the 2024 season.

[JD-TWINS]

14 minutes ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to tout as a championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

Your opinion about ownership & spending may be very accurate…….Jax “blew a bunch of games” & 6 guys are going to regress & a career journeyman that’s a great defender is still unsigned, was & would be a key going forward?? Did the Blue Jays lose the money they were going to pay Ohtani - haven’t seen any bold moves from them? Resigned Kiermaier.

Twins have a decent Club & with more games under their belt this year I think the younger guys thrive and add 50-75% to each WAR total. High paid Vets can’t be as bad in ‘24.

They were 14-5 in ‘23 against Phillies - Diamondbacks - Astros - Rangers……the last 4 teams standing in ‘23. Can rationalize how or why they were “lucky” to have done this but if that’s the case one needs to scrutinize the 162 games every other team played to justify their wins.

The rotation lost Maeda - Gray & combined, they were 14-16……..real outcomes are what matters not just stats. They were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He had an OK playoff start v. Toronto & had to pick a guy off to get out of a major jam - threw 5 innings. Stunk it up v. Astros in the following series. Am not hating on Gray - lack of run support in regular season was a problem - but his ERA didn’t get the team the results that would be expected in his starts.

Is it ridiculous to think Varland & Paddack go a combined 17-15 in ‘24 or similar?

I think management/ownership should get the Payroll total to $140M…….once TV is sorted, $160M in ‘25…………..at $140M, that’s a 10% reduction - that’s plenty when needing to be frugal. With this number & a Polanco trade, they’d have $30M plus to spend in ‘24…………Montgomery for $26M would be fantastic (all sorts of options)…….they can spend back to $160M in ‘25 & they’ll be free of Farmer & Kepler’s salary by then ($17M). I think things aren’t so bad - I agree, they need to act because “everything will work out approach” is burying their heads!

Beers are expensive in Pittsburgh - Cincinnati - D.C. - Detroit as well, Pohlad’s don’t have that cornered!

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly.  Hopefully Ober, Varland, and Paddack can step into the void and fill those shoes.

Gray & Maeda were 14-16 combined in ‘23 regular season.

Gray had a decent start against Toronto in playoffs (picked a guy off at 2B to get through 5th & final inning) & was not good v. Houston!

Maeda did not pitch well in playoffs.

The team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. Obviously, I don’t hate Gray - he deserved better! However, the outcomes of those two guys were not that impressive at all.

The, “we’re screwed without them”, comments that flow continually here are overstated. Would it have been less controversial to sign both? Probably. Is it poor judgement to think that Varland/Paddack can’t go .500 in 50 starts? IMO, I don’t think so.

[wabene]

59 minutes ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to tout as a championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

Lighten up Francis. Zero chance? SMH, you might want to hold off on your dire predictions until you actually know what the Twins 2024 roster is. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You apparently did not understand the premise of my post.  The OP insists the 2023 team was successful because they spent at record levels.  The facts are that five of the six highest paid players (Correa/Buxton/Polanco/Vazquez/Gallo) produced a total of 5 fWAR.  The six most impactful pitchers were Gray/Lopez/Duran/Jax/Stewart/Ryan/Ober.  Gray and Lopez were acquired through trades with relatively modest salaries.  Duran and Ryan were acquired by trading away established players for prospects.

Taylor at 1.5 WAR was not massively instrumental.  He was important but he was also a relatively cheap acquisition.  The point was certainly not that they don't need to replace Gray.  The point was that they did not acquire Gray by spending big and more generally that the elevated spending had little to do with the success of the 2023 team.   All of the avenues that made them successful last year are available this year. 

[laloesch]

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gray & Maeda were 14-16 combined in ‘23 regular season.

Gray had a decent start against Toronto in playoffs (picked a guy off at 2B to get through 5th & final inning) & was not good v. Houston!

Maeda did not pitch well in playoffs.

The team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. Obviously, I don’t hate Gray - he deserved better! However, the outcomes of those two guys were not that impressive at all.

The, “we’re screwed without them”, comments that flow continually here are overstated. Would it have been less controversial to sign both? Probably. Is it poor judgement to think that Varland/Paddack can’t go .500 in 50 starts? IMO, I don’t think so.

The team may have been 15-19 in Gray's starts but he pitched VERY WELL in 2023 over 184 innings and was arguably the defacto ace before Lopez arrived.  Early on before Lopez got acclimated and started stringing off wins Gray was the rotation leader. Maeda was up and down but he was a contributor in 2023 albeit over 104 innings but he pitched well in July, August, and September. 

The outcomes of these two pitcher's starts may not have been impressive, but they none the less heavily contributed to the team's success last season.  I don't think the loss of these two pitchers is being "overstated," it will hurt no doubt.  I also don't think anybody is saying Varland and Paddack "can't go .500 in 50 starts," (assuming they stay healthy), but the question is will they?  Honestly, will they?  Maybe.  In fact I sure hope they do.  That said what is the innings limit for Paddack?  This will be his first full season back from TJ and Varland will likely be on an innings limit as well.  Ober is positioned to take the biggest step forward in my opinion.  None of the above 3 starters has gone 150+ innings in a season (Paddack pitched 140 innings in 2019 and 108 innings in 2021, Varland pitched 68 innings in 2023, Ober pitched 144 innings 2023).  

[Jocko87]

The alternate title of the piece could be "Don't let impatient fans goad you into a shortsighted moves."

The Dodgers just executed a brilliant two plus year plan to sign everything important at once. Dodgers daily was certainly on fire over passing on Judge and a dozen others. The situations are certainly completely different but I'm sick to death of the self imposed modifier of the payroll issues. The point is that they have a plan, same as the Dodgers. They have a roster that can easily win the division and certainly aren't done with their offseason. It should also be noted that league wide payroll is trending down. A reset is needed and they need to be getting all kinds of kudos for them being in a position to weather the reset strongly.

Their system isn't much I'm interested on the open market anyway. Just because there's no good candy left doesn't mean we still have to take a piece.

 

[roger]

"imposing significant, unnecessary payroll cuts in response to not having a regional broadcasting deal."

After reading the above part of the post, it became apparent to me that the rest of the post wasn't worthwhile reading. 

[wabene]

6 minutes ago, laloesch said:

The team may have been 15-19 in Gray's starts but he pitched VERY WELL in 2023 over 184 innings and was arguably the defacto ace before Lopez arrived.  Early on before Lopez got acclimated and started stringing off wins Gray was the rotation leader. Maeda was up and down but he was a contributor in 2023 albeit over 104 innings but he pitched well in July, August, and September. 

The outcomes of these two pitcher's starts may not have been impressive, but they none the less heavily contributed to the team's success last season.  I don't think the loss of these two pitchers is being "overstated," it will hurt no doubt.  I also don't think anybody is saying Varland and Paddack "can't go .500 in 50 starts," (assuming they stay healthy), but the question is will they?  Honestly, will they?  Maybe.  In fact I sure hope they do.  That said what is the innings limit for Paddack?  This will be his first full season back from TJ and Varland will likely be on an innings limit as well.  Ober is positioned to take the biggest step forward in my opinion.  None of the above 3 starters has gone 150+ innings in a season (Paddack pitched 140 innings in 2019 and 108 innings in 2021, Varland pitched 68 innings in 2023, Ober pitched 144 innings 2023).  

I agree with much of your post except regarding Varland. Combining both the minors and majors he pitched 152 regular season innings in '22 and 149 in '23. That lower total in '23 was only because he spent the end of the year and the playoffs in the bullpen. Varland is a horse and has been durable so far. He could easily pitch well past 150 innings this season. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

Ha, the young guys are the 'regression candidates' while you mourn the loss of Gray and Taylor? I mean, I can't imagine there are too many regression candidates in the league bigger than those two.

[killertwinfan]

There is still plenty of time for a trade.  But, If we roll with this lineup, or less should we trade Polanco and/or Farmer for prospects, I will not be renewing MLB extra innings. 

[Eris]

I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars. 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, as it currently stands the Twin look more like the 21, 22 Twins than the 23 teams. The 23 teams brought in veteran depth and had starting pitcher depth to the point that Ober wasn't considered good enough to be on the starting day roster. The 23 Twins starting pitcher depth was IMO the best rotation  (and depth) in my life time (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland) and even with that they needed Keuchel for 6 starts and 10 games. Again as it stands now it is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and Varland and then hope and prospects. The depth last year was Farmer, Taylor, Solano, Castro, Gordon and dare I say Gallo with Walllner and Julien. With that depth they were able to over come Larnach, AK, Miranda, Gordon, Polanco and Buxton getting hurt (Even Correa). This year the back ups and some starters are unknown quantities.

If all goes well the Twins are going to be fine, should easily win the Central and be able to make noise in the playoffs, but if a pitcher or two goes down and the prospects struggle a bit and/or Buxton, AK, Lewis and others get hurt again and some younger players regress like Larnach, Miranda and Gordon did last year we could be looking at a similar result to 21 and 22. Which IMO is why they need to spend something on a RH outfielder and bring in somebody to push Varland out of the starting rotation like they did with Ober. If they don't and things end up like 21 and 22 it could easily be pointed out that reduction of payroll was a major issue.