Make a Valiant Effort to Avoid Shortsightedness

Their eventual payroll hasn't been established. Even they can't know what the final number will be. Based on their comments it appears to me the payroll will fall somewhere between 125 and 140 million. So when you say the team has voluntarily regressed to their 2021 payroll of about $125m, I don't think that has been established yet. We will see. It is true that it is the owners alone who don't want to see the Twins continue to spend at least to their market share. For example I'm guessing Falvey would agree to a $200m payroll and wouldn't have a Ryanesque aversion to spending all of it. 

Here is the problem with the premise of this article.  The players which made this the highest payroll team in Twins history had little to do with the team’s success.  Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez all produced very poorly. Only one relatively high paid player produced and that was Max Kepler and most people here were calling for him to be traded. Jorge Polanco and MAT would fall somewhere in between.

The players most responsible for the surge were Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, and Donovan Solano.  All of whom were among the lowest paid players.  On the pitching side, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez were the most impactful.  They were both acquired in trade with a modest salary.  Among the RPs, it was a bunch of low cost RPs like Jax, Stewart, and even Cody Funderburk.  Of course, Emilio Pagan who was hated was the most expensive of the lot.

The premise that record spending led to success in 2023 is deeply flawed.  Beyond this relatively obvious conclusion, if you wanted to make a case the Twins are cheap you should have provided the payroll rank compared to the revenue rank.  There is also no mention of the fact they had a revenue anomaly last year in that they had $30M in BAM money.   How are we to conclude their relative willingness to spend without knowing the relative amount of money coming in?  I am disappointed payroll is going down too but to conclude spending drove success in 2023 lacks objectivity.

Position Player WAR.  The highest paid players are highlighted.

No anger or frustration from me. Baseball is entertainment. It is not worth anger.

I look forward to the season. I look forward to seeing high school start up in February where I live. I look forward to being at the minor league games.

I think I prefer the Twins position where we follow prospects as they come up the ladder and watch them get that opportunity. It was awesome to see Minnesota kid Matt Wallner this summer and those big hits. I don’t need Stroman. Give me Varland. Do they even make it through the system in New York or Los Angeles before getting traded? 

Right now I am just looking forward to, or rather imagining/hoping/wishing for a healthy full season from Royce Lewis, Buxton, and Correa. Would that be wonderful or what?

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'm curious to see if this Amazon deal goes thru and if it has an effect on the Twins, or if it will be early enough to free up some more $$.

I'm  very curious too, but I imagine if/when the deal comes through, any money coming to the Twins won't come in time to sign any top-tier free agents. 

On 1/16/2024 at 6:59 AM, Major League Ready said:

Here is the problem with the premise of this article.  The players which made this the highest payroll team in Twins history had little to do with the team’s success.  Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez all produced very poorly. Only one relatively high paid player produced and that was Max Kepler and most people here were calling for him to be traded. Jorge Polanco and MAT would fall somewhere in between.

The players most responsible for the surge were Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, and Donovan Solano.  All of whom were among the lowest paid players.  On the pitching side, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez were the most impactful.  They were both acquired in trade with a modest salary.  Among the RPs, it was a bunch of low cost RPs like Jax, Stewart, and even Cody Funderburk.  Of course, Emilio Pagan who was hated was the most expensive of the lot.

The premise that record spending led to success in 2023 is deeply flawed.  Beyond this relatively obvious conclusion, if you wanted to make a case the Twins are cheap you should have provided the payroll rank compared to the revenue rank.  There is also no mention of the fact they had a revenue anomaly last year in that they had $30M in BAM money.   How are we to conclude their relative willingness to spend without knowing the relative amount of money coming in?  I am disappointed payroll is going down too but to conclude spending drove success in 2023 lacks objectivity.

Position Player WAR.  The highest paid players are highlighted.

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to tout as a championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

The Twins had very little depth two years ago and they were a team waiting to fall apart in July. Trading was a plan to avert the inevitable and the 2022 season turned out about how they looked, even early in the year. Having a Correa may have had some influence on how Falvey saw that team.

The addition of depth with the signings of Vazquez, Solano, Stewart, Gallo, and a few other pieces along with the trades for Taylor, Farmer, and Lopez gave length to the team. This allowed for the younger players to sift into the lineup as their talent and performances shown. 

The story for this coming season is unfinished but right now the Twins look stronger to me than in prior years. The hope for the Pohlads to sign a FA starting pitcher, cost be damned, has never been a thing for this ownership even if it looks now like an easy upgrade that doesn't disturb the current depth. The team should be better this year.

No angst for me at this time. Sure it would be nice to add a #2 SP, a decent additional reliever, and a guy like Rhys Hoskins but the risk of losing players via trade might tip or disturb the reasonable depth and have unseen consequences. Hopefully a good media deal evolves in the coming weeks, one fair to the team's finances and to fans. The Twins do need to consider the coming increases in player salaries over the next few years as they build the roster. There are a few prospects waiting for a chance who could make significant contributions when their opportunity arrives. This offseason the team may be better off by letting the roster develop on its own.

3 minutes ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to you as an championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

Let the individual games create some entertainment for you. Fans have no control over the finances. As far as corporate goes, sports organizations might be the most accountable of all large businesses. You can vote for whomever you please but representatives vote how they please. A baseball fan enjoys watching little league, high school, amateur teams, the minor leagues, and MLB. Your choice as a fan is the level of expertise you wish to see and the time, effort, and money you wish to spend. Falvey was given far larger budgets than Ryan ever was allowed but he has limits too. There isn't any reason to be a fan of or criticize either guy as they do what they do within the walls of their job. Leave the money side alone before it ruins whatever joy you ever found in the game. The Twins should be a fun team to watch this summer and pretty good too.

I think it’s actually a blessing to not have a budget to throw at the gallos and shoemakers of the FA world of reclamation projects. I would have liked to sign a FA ace pitchers but honestly, Id rather see one come out of nowhere from within the organization. Its a way better story to write in October than trying to be the Dodgers.  We will always be the underpaid, underrated flyover team.  It doesn’t mean we will suck in October.  One look at the NFL this week and you wont see many of the big names around. Sports has a way of humbling even the biggest of egos so leta just hang around for a couple more frozen months and see what this team has come opening day.

47 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm  very curious too, but I imagine if/when the deal comes through, any money coming to the Twins won't come in time to sign any top-tier free agents. 

If the evidence is this offseason so far, I don't expect any moves of significance at all.

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins had very little depth two years ago and they were a team waiting to fall apart in July. Trading was a plan to avert the inevitable and the 2022 season turned out about how they looked, even early in the year. Having a Correa may have had some influence on how Falvey saw that team.

The addition of depth with the signings of Vazquez, Solano, Stewart, Gallo, and a few other pieces along with the trades for Taylor, Farmer, and Lopez gave length to the team. This allowed for the younger players to sift into the lineup as their talent and performances shown. 

The story for this coming season is unfinished but right now the Twins look stronger to me than in prior years. The hope for the Pohlads to sign a FA starting pitcher, cost be damned, has never been a thing for this ownership even if it looks now like an easy upgrade that doesn't disturb the current depth. The team should be better this year.

No angst for me at this time. Sure it would be nice to add a #2 SP, a decent additional reliever, and a guy like Rhys Hoskins but the risk of losing players via trade might tip or disturb the reasonable depth and have unseen consequences. Hopefully a good media deal evolves in the coming weeks, one fair to the team's finances and to fans. The Twins do need to consider the coming increases in player salaries over the next few years as they build the roster. There are a few prospects waiting for a chance who could make significant contributions when their opportunity arrives. This offseason the team may be better off by letting the roster develop on its own.

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly.  Hopefully Ober, Varland, and Paddack can step into the void and fill those shoes.

4 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly.  Hopefully Ober, Varland, and Paddack can step into the void and fill those shoes.

I believe they will be fine. I liked both Gray and Maeda but there was never going to be any assurance that they would repeat their performances, although they easily could. I'm ready to see what Ober, Varland, Paddack, Festa, and others can do from the mound. More to the point, the Twins were not going to sign Gray and/or Maeda or any FA SP. Why worry about that which is beyond your control?

7 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Losing Gray and Maeda hurts badly. 

Yes. I feel the Twins biggest need is a front line starter. A legit complement to Lopez would make a huge difference to their fortunes. Still too many financial unknowns, but I have a sense that it likely will happen sometime during the 2024 season.

59 minutes ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to tout as a championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

Lighten up Francis. Zero chance? SMH, you might want to hold off on your dire predictions until you actually know what the Twins 2024 roster is. 

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You apparently did not understand the premise of my post.  The OP insists the 2023 team was successful because they spent at record levels.  The facts are that five of the six highest paid players (Correa/Buxton/Polanco/Vazquez/Gallo) produced a total of 5 fWAR.  The six most impactful pitchers were Gray/Lopez/Duran/Jax/Stewart/Ryan/Ober.  Gray and Lopez were acquired through trades with relatively modest salaries.  Duran and Ryan were acquired by trading away established players for prospects.

Taylor at 1.5 WAR was not massively instrumental.  He was important but he was also a relatively cheap acquisition.  The point was certainly not that they don't need to replace Gray.  The point was that they did not acquire Gray by spending big and more generally that the elevated spending had little to do with the success of the 2023 team.   All of the avenues that made them successful last year are available this year. 

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gray & Maeda were 14-16 combined in ‘23 regular season.

Gray had a decent start against Toronto in playoffs (picked a guy off at 2B to get through 5th & final inning) & was not good v. Houston!

Maeda did not pitch well in playoffs.

The team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. Obviously, I don’t hate Gray - he deserved better! However, the outcomes of those two guys were not that impressive at all.

The, “we’re screwed without them”, comments that flow continually here are overstated. Would it have been less controversial to sign both? Probably. Is it poor judgement to think that Varland/Paddack can’t go .500 in 50 starts? IMO, I don’t think so.

The team may have been 15-19 in Gray's starts but he pitched VERY WELL in 2023 over 184 innings and was arguably the defacto ace before Lopez arrived.  Early on before Lopez got acclimated and started stringing off wins Gray was the rotation leader. Maeda was up and down but he was a contributor in 2023 albeit over 104 innings but he pitched well in July, August, and September. 

The outcomes of these two pitcher's starts may not have been impressive, but they none the less heavily contributed to the team's success last season.  I don't think the loss of these two pitchers is being "overstated," it will hurt no doubt.  I also don't think anybody is saying Varland and Paddack "can't go .500 in 50 starts," (assuming they stay healthy), but the question is will they?  Honestly, will they?  Maybe.  In fact I sure hope they do.  That said what is the innings limit for Paddack?  This will be his first full season back from TJ and Varland will likely be on an innings limit as well.  Ober is positioned to take the biggest step forward in my opinion.  None of the above 3 starters has gone 150+ innings in a season (Paddack pitched 140 innings in 2019 and 108 innings in 2021, Varland pitched 68 innings in 2023, Ober pitched 144 innings 2023).  

"imposing significant, unnecessary payroll cuts in response to not having a regional broadcasting deal."

After reading the above part of the post, it became apparent to me that the rest of the post wasn't worthwhile reading. 

6 minutes ago, laloesch said:

The team may have been 15-19 in Gray's starts but he pitched VERY WELL in 2023 over 184 innings and was arguably the defacto ace before Lopez arrived.  Early on before Lopez got acclimated and started stringing off wins Gray was the rotation leader. Maeda was up and down but he was a contributor in 2023 albeit over 104 innings but he pitched well in July, August, and September. 

The outcomes of these two pitcher's starts may not have been impressive, but they none the less heavily contributed to the team's success last season.  I don't think the loss of these two pitchers is being "overstated," it will hurt no doubt.  I also don't think anybody is saying Varland and Paddack "can't go .500 in 50 starts," (assuming they stay healthy), but the question is will they?  Honestly, will they?  Maybe.  In fact I sure hope they do.  That said what is the innings limit for Paddack?  This will be his first full season back from TJ and Varland will likely be on an innings limit as well.  Ober is positioned to take the biggest step forward in my opinion.  None of the above 3 starters has gone 150+ innings in a season (Paddack pitched 140 innings in 2019 and 108 innings in 2021, Varland pitched 68 innings in 2023, Ober pitched 144 innings 2023).  

I agree with much of your post except regarding Varland. Combining both the minors and majors he pitched 152 regular season innings in '22 and 149 in '23. That lower total in '23 was only because he spent the end of the year and the playoffs in the bullpen. Varland is a horse and has been durable so far. He could easily pitch well past 150 innings this season. 

There is still plenty of time for a trade.  But, If we roll with this lineup, or less should we trade Polanco and/or Farmer for prospects, I will not be renewing MLB extra innings. 

IMO, as it currently stands the Twin look more like the 21, 22 Twins than the 23 teams. The 23 teams brought in veteran depth and had starting pitcher depth to the point that Ober wasn't considered good enough to be on the starting day roster. The 23 Twins starting pitcher depth was IMO the best rotation  (and depth) in my life time (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland) and even with that they needed Keuchel for 6 starts and 10 games. Again as it stands now it is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and Varland and then hope and prospects. The depth last year was Farmer, Taylor, Solano, Castro, Gordon and dare I say Gallo with Walllner and Julien. With that depth they were able to over come Larnach, AK, Miranda, Gordon, Polanco and Buxton getting hurt (Even Correa). This year the back ups and some starters are unknown quantities.

If all goes well the Twins are going to be fine, should easily win the Central and be able to make noise in the playoffs, but if a pitcher or two goes down and the prospects struggle a bit and/or Buxton, AK, Lewis and others get hurt again and some younger players regress like Larnach, Miranda and Gordon did last year we could be looking at a similar result to 21 and 22. Which IMO is why they need to spend something on a RH outfielder and bring in somebody to push Varland out of the starting rotation like they did with Ober. If they don't and things end up like 21 and 22 it could easily be pointed out that reduction of payroll was a major issue.

6 minutes ago, Eris said:

I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars. 

Until they start developing starter pitchers (Ober and Varland to a lesser extend), they are going to need to trade (Lopez, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Paddack)for them or sign them. You can't be successful without starting pitching.