Could the Mariners Flip This Starting Pitcher to the Twins?

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Mariners acquired Anthony DeSclafani from the San Francisco Giants last Friday. Could they flip him to the starting pitching-needy Twins?

Image courtesy of D. Ross Cameron - USA TODAY Sports

When analyzing which starting pitchers the Twins could realistically acquire this offseason, it feels imperative to buck specific trends. The Twins front office is unlikely to land frontline starters Shane Bieber or Dylan Cease, since both play in their division. They could be in on the Brewers' Corbin Burnes, but that addition would come at a heavy cost. Given their financial constraints, they almost certainly aren't going to sign the remaining top free agents, Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery

So, who does that leave as viable options? Less-talked-about trade candidates such as Jesús Luzardo, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller are more realistic options, yet due to them being young, cost-effective, and under team control for a significant amount of time, the team would need to send a package filled with substantial prospect capital, with second-ranked prospect Brooks Lee the likely headliner.

That being the case, it feels like the most realistic avenues down which the Twins could venture are:

• Trading for an under-the-radar starting pitcher who has yet to blossom, similar to Pablo López last season 
• Standing pat and having Louie Varland be the fifth-starter
• Signing a mid-tier free agent like Hyun Jin Ryu or Michael Lorenzen to a cheap one-year contract; or
• Trading for a starting pitcher of the same caliber.

Though numerous players who could be acquired relatively cheaply fit this archetype, one specific pitcher will be highlighted in this piece: Anthony DeSclafani.

Traded from the San Francisco Giants to the Seattle Mariners last Friday, the 33-year-old DeSclafani finds himself at a crossroads in his career. Will he be able to continue to contribute as age erodes his stuff, or is his career bound to fizzle out and come to a premature conclusion? In 2021, DeSclafani wangled a 3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 3.0 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 167 2/3 innings pitched and 31 games started. Though DeSclafani's first year in the Bay Area went well, he has unfortunately scuffled, generating a combined 5.75 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 1.0 fWAR over 118 2/3 IP and 23 games started over the past two seasons.

Though it is hard to pinpoint why a player struggled, it is safe to assume that the injuries that prematurely ended his 2022 and 2023 seasons are the main culprits. The injury that ended his 2023 campaign was a flexor strain in his right below. Though this type of injury is alarming for a starting pitcher, he did not require surgery, and it appears he will be ready for Opening Day in 2024. With DeSclafani looking to be healthy next season, would it be wise for the Twins to trade for the one year and $12 million left on his contract?

FanGraphs' STEAMER projects DeSclafani will generate a 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 0.6 fWAR over 88 IP with the Mariners as a reliever. Before getting traded to the Mariners, STEAMER projected DeSclafani would make 26 starts for the Giants, manufacturing a 1.4 fWAR over 148 IP. If DeSclafani were traded to the Twins, his 1.4 fWAR projection would be wedged between Chris Paddack (projected 1.8 fWAR over 145 IP) and Louie Varland (projected 1.3 fWAR over 136 IP). Though this type of performance from DeSclafani could be seen as underwhelming, having an effective, veteran back-of-the-rotation arm to complement Paddack and Varland (who are largely unknown commodities) could play a significant role in keeping the Twins afloat during the strenuous 162-game regular season.

DeSclafani heavily relies on his slider, a pitch he threw 44.8 percent of the time in 2023. The Florida product's main complementary pitch is a sinker, which he threw 27.7 percent of the time last season. DeSclafani also utilizes a four-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball, leading to a five-pitch repertoire. Being a slider-first pitcher who uses a sinker/fastball as almost a secondary option, he fits what the Twins desire when pursuing pitching talent to a tee. Also, he seems comfortable using his four-seamer to attack the top of the zone, a trait the Twins significantly value when it comes to pitch location.

Although it would be ideal if the Twins could acquire a frontline starter who could approximate the 4.1 fWAR Pablo López is projected to produce in 2024, acquiring a back-of-the-rotation starter with the potential to yield 1.4 or more fWAR would be an adequate consolation prize.

Should the Twins trade for DeSclafani? Does his injury history worry you? Would you rather have DeSclafani or Varland be the team's fifth starter? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[AceWrigley]

If I was going to acquire a starter from Seattle, I'd try to trade for Emerson Hancock.

[LewFordLives]

DeSclafani could end up being Paddack and Mahle all over again, and for $12 million, I vote "no".  Maybe if Seattle sent some money back with him.

[chpettit19]

They better think there's a real easy unlock in there to get him back to his 2021 self if they even consider trading for him. And do a real deep dive into his medicals. I have no real desire to add DeSclafani. 34 year old rental with a pretty low ceiling and possible elbow problems. If you're going to take a shot on someone you think you can get more out of I'd much rather see a shot at a younger, controllable guy who's not on our fan radars right now. DeSclafani would be really disappointing.

[LA Vikes Fan]

His contract is too expensive to make him worth anything in trade, especially given his decline and the real injury risk. Hard no for me.  I would much rather sign Michael Lorenzen, James Paxton, or even Brad Keller for depth.  

[DJL44]

Descalfini is not worth much trade value with a contract that is pretty much market rate. They can find a free agent with a similar projection for similar money (or less). That means he wouldn't be the target of the trade but could be useful to balance out money if they send Polanco to Seattle.

[rv78]

Could they.......yes, would they........maybe, should they......... The Twins.......no.  

Could the Dodgers flip Ohtani to the Twins?...... Yes, should they......... maybe, would they.......The Dodgers....... no.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

DeSclafani, NO. I think Ryu would be a solid depth pickup and shouldn't cost close to 12mil. This team is in cost cutting mode and we shouldn't expect any signing of significance. Low level for depth. 

[CRF]

I'd vote no on that one.

[Brandon]

I thought about this too after the trade and it just doesn't work for the Twins to get him.  They would need to trade Polanco to offset the salary and that right there should tell you no.  because of all the risk you mentioned above and the loss of Polanco.  We would need more to complete the trade.  I am hoping the Twins sign someone like Ryu to a contract.  We almost had him before.  but if we are going to sign an aging starter who is more of a number 4-5 then I would want Ryu and save the talent and trade Polanco for something else.  back to the topic at hand.  no on Desclafani unless the cost is minimal with cash coming back to help cover part of his contract.  now Seattle is probably saying no.

 

[harmony55]

The Mariners are unlikely to shop Anthony DeSclafani, who provides depth behind the Seattle's well-regarded rotation.

In terms of depth, Seattle has effectively swapped out one year of nine-year MLB veteran Marco Gonzales at $12.25 million for one year of nine-year MLB veteran Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million.

[DJL44]

59 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

The Mariners are unlikely to shop Anthony DeSclafani, who provides depth behind the Seattle's well-regarded rotation.

In terms of depth, Seattle has effectively swapped out one year of nine-year MLB veteran Marco Gonzales at $12.25 million for one year of nine-year MLB veteran Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million.

The Mariners would definitely trade DeSclafani. If they want another depth starter they can acquire one just as good (or possibly better) for the same price in free agency. If I was Seattle and could dump DeSclafani, add James Paxton and save $4M I would do that in a heartbeat.

I think it is funny how this poster keeps talking about how Seattle is "unlikely to trade" their players when Jerry DiPoto is known for trading anyone and everyone. His nickname is the "high volume trader".

[Blyleven2011]

Last I heard dipoto  had said he wasn't trading any starting pitchers after trading Ray  to subtract payroll ...

But  it's an interesting thought on desclafani , let's wait until spring training is just about to start and see if Seattle has added that infielder they are looking for or our front office has pulled a miracle  out of there hat ...

Keep rubbing you rabbit's foot ...

[MABB1959]

Had a bad fall that required brain surgery on 12/12.   Did I miss anything?

 

[harmony55]

50 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Mariners would definitely trade DeSclafani. If they want another depth starter they can acquire one just as good (or possibly better) for the same price in free agency. If I was Seattle and could dump DeSclafani, add James Paxton and save $4M I would do that in a heartbeat.

I think it is funny how this poster keeps talking about how Seattle is "unlikely to trade" their players when Jerry DiPoto is known for trading anyone and everyone. His nickname is the "high volume trader".

And his name is Jerry Dipoto with a lower-case p.

In a world where Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo and Lucas Giolito land AAV salaries of at least $14 million, Scott Boras is unlikely to have James Paxton sign for less than $10 million annually.

[Old fox]

I don’t believe this trade is advantageous for the Twins because Target Field isn’t as forgiving as the San Francisco ball park.  $12m is too much for that pitcher.

[sweetmusicviola16]

42 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Had a bad fall that required brain surgery on 12/12.   Did I miss anything?

 

I'm so sorry to hear that. Glad you made it through though.

But no you haven't missed much. I'm thinking the same thing must have happened to Falvine since they have done next to nothing this offseason. 

[David HK]

Clevinger is still out there, ain't he?

I wouldn't be opposed to taking a flyer on Trevor Bauer either.  Make the Twinks the Mlb answer to the old Oakland Raiders.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

DeSclafani, NO. I think Ryu would be a solid depth pickup and shouldn't cost close to 12mil. This team is in cost cutting mode and we shouldn't expect any signing of significance. Low level for depth. 

Yeah Ryu over DeScalfini.  Best option is probably just give the ball to Varland over what ever downward trajectory pitcher their budget allows.

[Thebigalguy]

No, not him. Go the free agent route.

[EGFTShaw]

There are enough “No”s I don’t need to add my No that I said I would not to the  pile of “No”s already

 

oops I did it again 

😂😂

[RaoulDuke]

Not interested in veteran 4/5 starters.  If they won't spend to add a free agent pony up some trade value and get someone with 3/2 upside. 

It will hurt to trade one but there is a massive infield jam.  Lee/ Julien/ Polanco/ Martin/ Kiriloff/ Miranda/ Farmer/ Gordon/ Castro all have to get worked in somewhere in an infield that already has Correa/ Lewis as long term cornerstones.  Turn some of that surplus into pitching.

[DocBauer]

Seattle had made a lot of moves to try and get better. But they still need INF help as 2B and 3B aren't looking well. The reports have been pretty consistent that the Mariners are still concerned about payroll after purchasing their TV broadcasts. They are also "reportedly" unwilling to move any of their young arms. (Doesn't everyone say that]?

The first thing I thought of when they acquired DeScalfini was a relatively inexpensive 1yr deal for a veteran who provides depth allowing to add additional offensive help, probably the INF, and to do so by moving one of their other arms, veteran or youngster. 

No to a trade for DeScalfini. Yes/maybe to this opening up a perfect fit for a deal with the Twins?

[tony&rodney]

No way.

[specialiststeve]

Hard pass!

[Heiny]

How bout we take a chance on sending Polanco for Desclafini along with Jonatan Clase?  I might take that chance.  I don't see any other possible deal here.  Not real high on Desclafini and as someone else commented earlier, he has the same scare features as Mahle and Paddock.  The only saving grace would be Clase, a switch hitting speedy OF prospect with building power upside.  Helps Seattle with their infield and Minnesota with an outfielder that can hit from the right side of the plate.(both sides actually)

[jorgenswest]

I think DeSclafini is the only starter they would move short of being blown away. They don’t have the depth to trade someone in their starting rotation.

I don’t think a Polanco plus prospects package gets them to move one anyone from their rotation. Do the Twins want Gilbert? Offer Royce Lewis. Do they want Miller or Woo? Offer Brooks Lee and hope the Mariners believe in his readiness. I wouldn’t do those deals.

[August J Gloop]

No more starters who don't strike guys out. Just stop getting them. 

If you're going to absorb salary, absorb Haniger, since if he's healthy he has utility. Plus That increases the talent you can get with him. 

Anthony D even when healthy is a luck based pitcher, and that's not worth absorbing salary for. 

[harmony55]

Two Seattle podcasters (Marine Layer Podcast) say the Mariners should give away the $12 million contract of righthander Anthony DeSclafani and then pursue Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who reportedly wants to pitch in Seattle.

 

[Werbellik]

No