Graham Ashcraft is An Enticing High-Ceiling Trade Candidate

[Cody Schoenmann]

Since the end of the 2021 season, the Twins have traded for two Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers. One trade worked out incredibly well, and the other, well, didn't. Could the Twins partner with the Reds on yet another trade for a starter?

Image courtesy of Katie Stratman - USA TODAY Sports

The Major League Baseball trade market is like a well. Parched front offices visit that well, hoping to find a player to quench their thirst and strengthen their team for a reasonable cost. Recently, the Cincinnati Reds have been a one-team well the Twins front office has often visited for starting pitching help. The first time Derek Falvey and company visited in need of a starting pitcher, they traded first-round pick Chase Petty for two years of Sonny Gray. The Petty-for-Gray trade went swimmingly for both sides, as the Twins got two above-average years from Gray, and the Reds got a borderline top-100 prospect who could join the Reds rotation as early as 2025. 

Then, on August 2, 2022, the well made the Twins sick. They traded three top prospects (Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar) for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. Over the next season and change, Mahle made just nine starts for the Twins, before undergoing Tommy John surgery and signing a two-year, $22-million deal with the Texas Rangers last week. The Twins got essentially nothing, while the Reds got two starting-level position players in Steer and Encarnacion-Strand, and traded Hajjar to the Cleveland Guardians for starting outfielder Will Benson. Though the lousiness of this trade is often hyperbolized, as the process behind executing the trade was sound, the end result was undeniably a loss for the organization's decision-makers.

If the last time a team was thirsty and went to a well, the water made them sick, should they return to that specific well, expecting it to be safe? What if the well was safe the first time, then, unbeknownst to them, became contaminated between visits? Interestingly, there is an enticing Reds starting pitcher who could force the Twins to reflect on these philosophical questions if he were to become available through trade.

Graham Ashcraft - Cincinnati Reds - 145 2/3 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
Deemed a young pitcher who has yet to perform to their potential, Ashcraft is an exciting trade candidate who possesses the exact pitching repertoire the Twins' front office values: a potentially elite slider mixed with a cutter that the team's coaching staff could help Ashcraft change into a more traditional four-seam fastball.

As evidenced by his 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 5.06 FIP, Ashcraft floundered during his 2023 campaign. Though his struggles are undeniable, much of his lackluster numbers are a mix of poor luck and below-average results. In 2023, Ashcraft excelled in specific skill-based metrics such as Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA), Stuff+, and Pitching+. 

In 2023, Ashcraft was the epitome of a two-pitch pitcher. He relied heavily on his aforementioned cutter and slider, throwing them 90.3 percent of the time. If one of his two primary pitches weren't working, outings would tend to blow up in Ashcraft's face, which contributed to his inflated face-value pitching statistics. Ashcraft's reliance on two pitches in 2023 was peculiar, considering he utilized a sinker and changeup during the 2022 season.

Ashcraft's cutter and slider are effective and have the potential to be exceptional, but if he ever wants to become a consistently above-average rotation arm, he must add a third pitch, at a minimum. The former sixth-round pick could utilize his sinker to complement his cutter more to become an "east-to-west" pitcher who attacks the edges of the zone. Though this proposition is enticing, Ashcraft would seemingly benefit most from incorporating his changeup as a functional companion to his cutter and slider.

Despite having highly effective pitches, evidenced by his 128 Stuff+ in 2023, Ashcraft struggled to strike batters out and generated a mere 17.8% K%. Walks weren't Ashcraft's issue, as he manufactured a modest BB% of 8.3%. Hence, his inability to strike batters out was likely due to an ineffective punch-out pitch, further pushing the narrative that he needs to expand his pitch mix and add a third offspeed pitch as a final touch.

Ashcraft recently underwent surgery to repair a stress reaction in his right big toe, but should be ready by spring training. Ashcraft isn't a free agent until the end of the 2028 season and would require the Twins to surrender a significant package--one that could include Griffin Jax and an MLB-ready corner outfielder with upside, like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. 

Though the Reds, like the Twins, need a frontline starting pitcher, the middle of their rotation is clogged with young, high-upside starting pitchers Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, and Ashcraft. The four young starting pitchers combine with ace Hunter Greene and veteran Nick Martinez to form a respectable prospective 2024 rotation. Yet, if they elect to sign or trade for another frontline starting pitcher like Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, or Shane Bieber, one of the four young starters could become available through trade. Then, the Twins could jump in and attempt to capitalize off the Reds' situation, while parting with a palatable package.

Suppose Ashcraft can stay healthy in 2024, while fine-tuning his changeup into a consistently usable complementary pitch to his cutter and slider. In that case, he has the skill and raw stuff to become a frontline starting pitcher. Should the Twins trade for Ashcraft if he becomes available? Would it be wise to invest in a young pitcher with untapped upside? Join the conversation and comment below.

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[chpettit19]

I don't see much of a fit for the Twins and Reds. They're both looking for the same things and have the same perceived areas of depth. Trading away from the back of our pen sounds like a really bad idea as well.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Cincinnati is SO analystics driven, employing a number of staff who helped develop Driveline. I'd be curious why he is striking out under 7 per 9 innings. If there is something to tap in to, I'd be open to it. I'd also be nervous as to why the Reds were ok with moving him in this scenario.

That said, if it took the offer you listed, I'd very much be open to it. I don't know that I'd put him ahead of Ryan or Ober, but he is healthy and young.

[terrydactyls]

As always - it all depends on the cost to obtain him.

[darin617]

Unless he's trash why would the Reds even think of trading him? So many years of team control left. 

[nicksaviking]

Call me a buzzkill, but I don't count a starting pitcher with a mind-boggling low K rate of 16.7% either exciting or high ceiling.

The Reds can keep their Dallas Keuchel clone.

[Twinkies are for eating]

Stay far away from the Reds and Giants

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

healthy and young.

Young, yes, but he's had 3 stints on the IL in the past two years.  One, calf contusion, may have been an on-field injury and unavoidable (didn't take the time to research), but the other two look like started out as minor issues that lingered - the toe this season wound up needing surgery.

I kind of like the (relatively) wiry guys for durability like Berrios and PLopez - yeah Pablo is listed as 6'4" but he looks trim.  Big guys who don't strike out many?  Not so much.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't see clogging our home-grown pitchers with more low-mid SPs & certainly not trading away Jax for him. & certainly not give the Twins any ideas of quitting there & not going after a front-line SP

[Hubie29]

If you wouldn't want him on your fantasy baseball team, he isn't worth trading for!   😄

[sweetmusicviola16]

My thought is if you're going to acquire someone as uninspiring as Ashcraft you might as well so by signing someone like Montas, Turnbull or Hudson. At least you're saving your minor league assets that way.

[DocBauer]

The more I read all of these articles as to "could they, should they"...and I've done one also...I keep wondering how healthy and ready to go Frankie Montas is? 

Still not old, what would a 2 or 3yr cost? Would coming off injury lower his $? He could slot behind Lopez and we keep our prospects.

Then, to add and trim payroll, you can move Polanco and add a nice BP piece, or a CF or RH bat option, unless they could be one in the same.

Add $18-20M (in theory/guess) per for one guy, trade away another $10M, you'd still have $ left over for a couple adds if the $140M payroll is in play.

[High heat]

If they see something they can change and adjust to make him widely more successful I'm for it.  
 

You don’t trade a very solid MLB set up man and a MLB starting Corner outfielder with years of control for both left for a 5th starter with a near 5 ERA and a low Krate..  

 

Maybe a Larnach and another piece like Funderburk or Alcala or Nick Gordon.

[Blyleven2011]

If he didn't have a mix of poor luck  ,  he wouldn't have any luck at all ... 

I hope he has a great career , just not with the Twins at this time ...

If your trading for a pitcher , make it an established quality pitcher ( I'm  always thinking ahead for the playoffs ) , we're always  competitive enough to compete for the division  , but pitching wins in the playoffs ( my example , we won in the playoffs and broke the winless streak of 18 ... 

I don't want to start a new one next fall , get a quality starter and get him or her now when it's alittle cheaper , deadline you end up over paying and our FO is terrible at deadline trades ...

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

The more I read all of these articles as to "could they, should they"...and I've done one also...I keep wondering how healthy and ready to go Frankie Montas is? 

Still not old, what would a 2 or 3yr cost? Would coming off injury lower his $? He could slot behind Lopez and we keep our prospects.

Then, to add and trim payroll, you can move Polanco and add a nice BP piece, or a CF or RH bat option, unless they could be one in the same.

Add $18-20M (in theory/guess) per for one guy, trade away another $10M, you'd still have $ left over for a couple adds if the $140M payroll is in play.

Sounds okay with me ... 

Sign montas for a prove it year and if he does get back to the good pitcher he once was before the injuries , then give him a qualifying offer  , and if he walks , a comp draft choice  ...

That is a win  , win for the Twins  ...

I hope we get our hope ...

[PatPfund]

Two good pitches. When they don't go well he gets hammered. Sounds a lot like Cole Sands to me with more health issues. (And if someone offered me Jax and Wallner for Cole Sands, I would LEAP on it.)

He sounds more like a AAA depth piece than someone I want to trade a top prospect or an MLB player for.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The more I read all of these articles as to "could they, should they"...and I've done one also...I keep wondering how healthy and ready to go Frankie Montas is? 

Still not old, what would a 2 or 3yr cost? Would coming off injury lower his $? He could slot behind Lopez and we keep our prospects.

Then, to add and trim payroll, you can move Polanco and add a nice BP piece, or a CF or RH bat option, unless they could be one in the same.

Add $18-20M (in theory/guess) per for one guy, trade away another $10M, you'd still have $ left over for a couple adds if the $140M payroll is in play.

Montas has shoulder issues. If it was fixed he might be fine. If anything a one year contract 

[old nurse]

‘Twas the week before Christmas’s 

in the Twin’s house

a frontline starter was need

but not this louse

[twinfan]

If we couldn't or wouldn't trade for Adrian Houser whom Milwaukee gave away for nothing, why would we make a stupid deal for this guy who, like Mahle, may not be healthy. Sign Montgomery or any of the other free agents I have mentioned and don't break up a successful bullpen. Pitchers don't go much beyond 6 innings in today's crazy world and Jax has been perhaps our best middle relief pitcher so you want to trade him??? Just not in my book. 

 

Merry Christmas to all.

[Otaknam]

Right now he sounds like a number 5 starter for a team w no other options. Maybe trading Larnach even up would make sense, but otherwise why weaken your bullpen to take a flyer on a guy who a high ERA, low strikeout rate, and has somewhat of an injury history? We already have Cole Sands.

[roger]

Jax and Larnach or Wallner?  Sure am glad you aren’t in the Twins front office.

[Linus]

This is not my definition of high ceiling. Hard pass. 

[1985Fan]

I agree with others here that Ashcroft would be too expensive for a very uncertain return. Twins window to compete for championship, not just division title, should dictate that they add high value, proven assets, not take a flyer on someone. They already have prospects that are in the same mold as Ashcroft, so why give up players to duplicate what they already have?
 

[JD-TWINS]

REDS aren’t trading Ashcraft. His ERA was inflated to 6.50 or so early……..he had a stretch of really good starts before & Ftrr his calf injury. I live in Cincinnati and have seen Ashcraft pitch half-dozen times…….the Team & the Fans love him

Not really sure why the Twins would be attracted?

The REDS need a left handed outfield bat like they need a hole in the head. Fraley or Benson will have to sit & both are solid performers! Better than Larnach and comparable to Wallner offensively (good, but less power). Steer will be in LF essentially every day and Friedl will be in CF 140 games!

There’s no match here. Reds covet pitchers after last year’s revolving staff due to injury.

……………….

A guy I’d like to see the Twins trade for (I suggested in June of ‘23 a few times) is Stuart Fairchild. Good outfielder! RH bat. Controllable and inexpensive going forward………..Sands for Fairchild straight up!

Fairchild can play all 3 OF spots - he would be a better option for outfield depth than Gordon & I’m a Gordon fan! RH bat and he can steal some bases - generally good speed. Good compliment to Wallner - Kepler - Castro - Buxton - Larnach………he’s what we hope Martín could do in OF this year but he has parts of 3 years of experience. 16 doubles in just over 200 PA’s in 2023. He needs a chance to play & Cincinnati is clogged with Steer going to OF essentially every day now.

Noveli - McClean - India (may move to OF per organization) - De La Cruz - Enc. Strand  - Candelario are all ahead of Steer in the infield, just because they can’t play OF. Steer will be in the line-up nearly every day …….he was voted their ‘23 MVP.

Getting pitching FROM Cincinnati is a dead end.

[KBJ1]

We need to add the the bullpen, not trade away anyone. This guy is in no way worth that trade.

[Doctor Wu]

Honestly, I've never noticed this player before. Not sure it it's something the Twins would want to, or need to, think about. But I appreciate the deep dive into analyzing the possible benefits. At this point, with a limited budget, the Twins need to look at possible acquisitions like this or other trades that might land us a player with untapped potential. But as others have already written, Ashcraft doesn't seem to be that exciting. 

[miracleb]

"Though his struggles are undeniable, much of his lackluster numbers are a mix of poor luck and below-average results."

LOL.......that defines every guy who has never made it to the major leagues.....

:)