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The Major League Baseball trade market is like a well. Parched front offices visit that well, hoping to find a player to quench their thirst and strengthen their team for a reasonable cost. Recently, the Cincinnati Reds have been a one-team well the Twins front office has often visited for starting pitching help. The first time Derek Falvey and company visited in need of a starting pitcher, they traded first-round pick Chase Petty for two years of Sonny Gray. The Petty-for-Gray trade went swimmingly for both sides, as the Twins got two above-average years from Gray, and the Reds got a borderline top-100 prospect who could join the Reds rotation as early as 2025.
Then, on August 2, 2022, the well made the Twins sick. They traded three top prospects (Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar) for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. Over the next season and change, Mahle made just nine starts for the Twins, before undergoing Tommy John surgery and signing a two-year, $22-million deal with the Texas Rangers last week. The Twins got essentially nothing, while the Reds got two starting-level position players in Steer and Encarnacion-Strand, and traded Hajjar to the Cleveland Guardians for starting outfielder Will Benson. Though the lousiness of this trade is often hyperbolized, as the process behind executing the trade was sound, the end result was undeniably a loss for the organization's decision-makers.
If the last time a team was thirsty and went to a well, the water made them sick, should they return to that specific well, expecting it to be safe? What if the well was safe the first time, then, unbeknownst to them, became contaminated between visits? Interestingly, there is an enticing Reds starting pitcher who could force the Twins to reflect on these philosophical questions if he were to become available through trade.
Graham Ashcraft - Cincinnati Reds - 145 2/3 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
Deemed a young pitcher who has yet to perform to their potential, Ashcraft is an exciting trade candidate who possesses the exact pitching repertoire the Twins' front office values: a potentially elite slider mixed with a cutter that the team's coaching staff could help Ashcraft change into a more traditional four-seam fastball.
As evidenced by his 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 5.06 FIP, Ashcraft floundered during his 2023 campaign. Though his struggles are undeniable, much of his lackluster numbers are a mix of poor luck and below-average results. In 2023, Ashcraft excelled in specific skill-based metrics such as Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA), Stuff+, and Pitching+.
In 2023, Ashcraft was the epitome of a two-pitch pitcher. He relied heavily on his aforementioned cutter and slider, throwing them 90.3 percent of the time. If one of his two primary pitches weren't working, outings would tend to blow up in Ashcraft's face, which contributed to his inflated face-value pitching statistics. Ashcraft's reliance on two pitches in 2023 was peculiar, considering he utilized a sinker and changeup during the 2022 season.
Ashcraft's cutter and slider are effective and have the potential to be exceptional, but if he ever wants to become a consistently above-average rotation arm, he must add a third pitch, at a minimum. The former sixth-round pick could utilize his sinker to complement his cutter more to become an "east-to-west" pitcher who attacks the edges of the zone. Though this proposition is enticing, Ashcraft would seemingly benefit most from incorporating his changeup as a functional companion to his cutter and slider.
Despite having highly effective pitches, evidenced by his 128 Stuff+ in 2023, Ashcraft struggled to strike batters out and generated a mere 17.8% K%. Walks weren't Ashcraft's issue, as he manufactured a modest BB% of 8.3%. Hence, his inability to strike batters out was likely due to an ineffective punch-out pitch, further pushing the narrative that he needs to expand his pitch mix and add a third offspeed pitch as a final touch.
Ashcraft recently underwent surgery to repair a stress reaction in his right big toe, but should be ready by spring training. Ashcraft isn't a free agent until the end of the 2028 season and would require the Twins to surrender a significant package--one that could include Griffin Jax and an MLB-ready corner outfielder with upside, like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach.
Though the Reds, like the Twins, need a frontline starting pitcher, the middle of their rotation is clogged with young, high-upside starting pitchers Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, and Ashcraft. The four young starting pitchers combine with ace Hunter Greene and veteran Nick Martinez to form a respectable prospective 2024 rotation. Yet, if they elect to sign or trade for another frontline starting pitcher like Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, or Shane Bieber, one of the four young starters could become available through trade. Then, the Twins could jump in and attempt to capitalize off the Reds' situation, while parting with a palatable package.
Suppose Ashcraft can stay healthy in 2024, while fine-tuning his changeup into a consistently usable complementary pitch to his cutter and slider. In that case, he has the skill and raw stuff to become a frontline starting pitcher. Should the Twins trade for Ashcraft if he becomes available? Would it be wise to invest in a young pitcher with untapped upside? Join the conversation and comment below.
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