Is Marcus Stroman the Most Realistic Option to Replace Sonny Gray?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Intersecting circumstances could lead to an unlikely partnership between the Twins and starting pitcher Marcus Stroman.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports

As front office members, agents, insiders, writers, and more come together this upcoming week at the spacious Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in lovely Nashville, Tennessee, for Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings, one thing is evident: The Twins will not be, to quote Scott Boras, "fishing in the deep ocean." 

Though the cost-cutting Twins will be tasked with finding a center fielder who can adequately replace Michael A. Taylor, fortifying their bullpen, and acquiring a right-handed corner outfield bat to stabilize the lineup, their greatest challenge will be making up for the recently-departed 288 2/3 innings and 6.8 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) generated by Kenta Maeda (104 2/3 IP, 1.5 fWAR) and Sonny Gray (184 IP, 5.3 fWAR). 

Replacing Gray will be a more daunting challenge than doing the same with Maeda. Regardless, neither will be uncomplicated, particularly considering the Twins' self-imposed payroll restrictions. Now, young internal candidate Louie Varland could suffice as a seamless one-for-one replacement for Maeda, as evidenced by his 86 DRA- as a starting pitcher, which is a pitching metric created by Baseball Prospectus that focuses on expected contribution while isolating a pitcher's performance from uncontrollable factors like defense, park, and quality of opponents. 

Varland showed great promise as a reliever during the latter half of the 2023 regular season. Still, it would be in the Twins' best interest to allow the affordable soon-to-be 26-year-old to be a full-time rotation member for an extended period. Even if the Twins ultimately convert Varland into a reliever and opt to sign a veteran like Hyun-Jin Ryu or Wade Miley to a one-year deal for less than $10 million, they are still going to need to find a way to make up for Gray's exit from the organization. 

Expensive, top-tier free-agent starting pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodríguez are not realistic options, and though the Twins could realistically acquire frontline starting pitchers like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert through trade, the idea of parting with potential franchise-altering prospects in Brooks Lee and Emmanuel Rodríguez is sure to give them pause.

So, what realistic avenue could the Twins take to replace Gray's Cy Young Award-worthy 2023 production? The answer could be signing the high-risk, high-reward option, in Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman, 32, has long been among the more well-known starting pitchers in Major League Baseball due to his lovably eccentric personality and exceptional ability on the mound while a member of big-market franchises like the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs. 

Stroman began the 2023 season hot, generating a 2.28 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 83.3 LOB%. He struck out 44 of the 187 batters faced through his first 47 1/3 innings pitched from March 30 through May 8. Unfortunately, after a rough outing against the Twins on May 14 in which he gave up six earned runs over 2 2/3 innings pitched, Stroman's performance began to deteriorate. From the rough outing against the Twins in mid-May through July 31, Stroman generated a 4.76 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and 60.6% LOB%, while striking out only 67 of 351 batters through 81 1/3 innings pitched.

Cubs fans began to wonder what was wrong with Stroman, a consistently above-average starter throughout his career, and if his decline in production could be injury-related. Eventually, their concerns were confirmed, as it was announced that Stroman had a right rib cartilage fracture and that he would need to be sidelined for an unknown amount of time. Fortunately for Stroman, he could return to the Cubs as a reliever on September 15. Although he struggled after his return, evidenced by his 5.63 ERA and 12.5% HR/FB over eight innings pitched and 38 total batters faced, it was encouraging to see Stroman make it back before the end of the season.

Upon the conclusion of the 2023 season, Stroman somewhat surprisingly opted out of the third year of his contract with the Cubs, giving up a guaranteed $21 million for the 2024 season. Though his struggles before the announcement of his injury were discouraging, many of his shortcomings were overstated, and much of his poor numbers were due to being unlucky, rather than the injury weighing him down to an extreme extent. 

Regardless, Stroman's market and potential earnings have likely been suppressed due to poor luck, injury, and an overall lackluster latter half of last season. Though the circumstance in which Stroman finds himself is unfortunate for both himself and (on a macro scale) workplace labor efforts, his dampened market provides an opportunity for the cash-strapped Twins to jump in and sign a frontline starter at a team-friendly rate.

What Could Stroman's 2024 Contract Look Like?
Though the annual average value of the contract Stroman could earn will be less than if he had avoided injury and sustained his first-half success, there is good reason to believe he'll command some multi-year variation on the deal he opted out of with the Cubs.

When looking at what a contract might look like for Stroman in 2024, there's wide variance in the predictions. For example, a collective of three MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) writers predicted that Stroman would receive a two-year, $44-million contract. Notably, MLBTR writer Darragh McDonald predicted the Twins would be the team that signed Stroman to that contract. Though McDonald's prediction is reason for optimism, it should be noted that the writer made that prediction before the Twins' intentions of making significant payroll reductions were public knowledge. 

More recently, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted that Stroman would sign a three-year, $77-million contract with the Colorado Rockies. Now, though Bowden does have sources within the league and writes for a reputable company, much of what he says or predicts should be taken with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, Stroman's contract has a greater chance of aligning with MLBTR's prediction than Bowden's more expensive estimate.

While hurlers like Yamamoto, Snell, and Montgomery will garner contracts for the longer term and an AAV closer to $30 million per season, there is a significant chance Stroman signs a two- or three-year "prove it" deal worth $20 million per season. Even a short-term deal at that level feels too rich for the Twins, given what they've indicated about their intentions for this winter. Yet, if they were to trade one or more of Christian Vázquez ($10 million owed in 2024), Jorge Polanco ($10.5 million), or Max Kepler ($10 million), Stroman's hypothetical contract becomes much more palatable. 

Like Dallas Keuchel, Stroman is a pitcher who relies on getting outs via the groundball. To further prove this point, here is Stroman's groundball percentage (GB%) from his past five seasons:

(*Note: Stroman sat out the shortened 60-game 2020 COVID season)

• 2018 (Blue Jays) - 62.1%
• 2019 (Blue Jays & Mets) - 53.7%
• 2021 (Mets) - 50.8%
• 2022 (Cubs) - 51.7%
• 2023 (Cubs) - 57.1%

Combining Stroman's high GB% with the fact that the Twins' infield defense struggled during 2023 is a reason for the Twins to shy away from pursuing his services in free agency. Though this is a reasonable cause for concern, the Twins' infield could realistically become an improved, more cohesive unit during the 2024 season.

With Carlos Correa recovering from his struggles with plantar fasciitis, Royce Lewis having an offseason of continuity at one position, Edouard Julien building off his late-season defensive improvements, and Jorge Polanco and Kyle Farmer remaining consistently above-average fielders, this has the makeup of an above-average defensive infield unit. That could help someone like Stroman thrive with his new team. 

The Twins will be hard-pressed to find a solution for the recent departures of Maeda and Gray. Though they could part ways with high-end prospect capital and find a frontline starting pitcher through the trade market, it could make sense for them to sign the high-risk, high-reward option in Stroman.

Should the Twins sign Stroman? Which path should the organization go down when attempting to find a replacement for Gray? Comment below.

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[nicksaviking]

I just don't see him as a fit. As you noted, he's a high groundball starter which is anti-Twins these days. The relievers throw sinkers and the Twins tend to make defensive replacements to accommodate. The Twins starters get tons of strikeouts and groundballs. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

Obviously, it's not a *requirement* that the replacement for Gray be a short, athletic guy with a sweepy slider and a heavy reliance on ground balls and command and a fierce combination of self-confidence and competitiveness, but it sure would make some things easier. They could probably use Sonný's old pants for Stro. :D

Seriously, it's gonna be a matter of money and other options for Stroman, but I like the fit from the team's side. Some of the same things they helped Sonny learn to do, late in his career, are things Stroman could benefit from learning to do.

[DJL44]

He's more of a groundball pitcher and the Twins tend to prefer flyball guys in the rotation.

[Karbo]

IMO that's more then the Twins will spend. I think any good starter will come via trade.

[MMMordabito]

"lovably eccentric personality" is Minnesota Nice for a-hole.

No thanks.

Next.

[Mike Sixel]

I was hoping Severino for 1 year, but that's gone.

I still think it will be a trade.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I believe a "lovably eccentric personality" also may have been used by the Dookie fans to describe several other Duke graduates, in addition to Marcus Stroman: Christian "Stomach Stomp" Laettner, Gerald "Elbow" Henderson and Grayson "Leg Sweep" Allen. 

[KP34Forever]

If they wouldn't go 25m per year over 3 years for Gray, an older but clearly superior option to Stroman, why on earth would you think they'd pay only 5m a year less for a guy who struggled before going on the IL and showed no signs of getting back to above average performance after returning from the IL? If the difference between Gray and Stroman is only $5m per year abd a compensatory draft pick and they let Gray walk for the draft pick, there's no way they'll commit to Stroman for that much..

 

I get that Gray is a regression candidate and letting him go came with a draft pick, but even if Gray regresses back to his 2022 numbers, that's still better than we'd see out of Stroman. Save that $20m to extend someone that we didn't get fleeced for in a trade. The front office has shown us they can be crafty with a trade. I don't think they've lost the ability to think outside the box. We can get a controllable arm that might not have great numbers with their current team, but the metrics show upside that our pitching coaches seem to be able to unlock, i.e. Pagan (although it took a brutal year for him to figure it out, that won't always be the case.)

 

If you're expecting the Twins to acquire someone, whether it's via trade or free agency, with numbers even close to duplicating Gray's production, you're in for a rude awakening. They're going to settle for less this year. It's going to look disappointing. Hopefully that find the hidden gem that surprises everyone. That's the reality we have to deal with and hope for. 

[HerbieFan]

The Gray replacement comes via trade.  100%.  Wouldn't mind a FA addition to bolster the back end of the rotation and provide insurance for Paddock.

[pierre75275]

I like the idea but I seriously doubt the Twins passed on 25mil/yr for Gray and 12/mil a yr on Kenta so they could spend 20mil a yr plus on another pitcher 

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I believe a "lovably eccentric personality" also may have been used by the Dookie fans to describe several other Duke graduates, in addition to Marcus Stroman: Christian "Stomach Stomp" Laettner, Gerald "Elbow" Henderson and Grayson "Leg Sweep" Allen. 

While Duke basketball players can often be questionable characters, I did mean what I said about Stroman as a genuine compliment. He is one of my favorite personalities in baseball.

[jmlease1]

I think it's a fit for the Twins if he's interested in a 1 or 2 year deal to restore his value; if it's a 3 year deal in the Gray range (which seems unlikely to me, and I doubt Bowden's info is coming from inside a ballclub, more likely a number made up from the top of BS Mountain, or possibly from Stroman's agent) then it's likely to be a no. But it could be an interesting indicator of a) what the starting pitching market is like, b) who is ready to spend, and c) whether or not Sonny Gray took a real discount or not to put himself in St. Louis. I just don't know where the money will land for him or if someone is going to want to go 3 years at the kind of number he wants to bring in.

I'm unconcerned about the GB%, and the front office isn't going to pass on a guy in their price range because of it. I think they feel pretty good about their infield defense with Correa and Lewis on the left side and from the improvement Julien showed on the right, but they also know that very few HRs are hit on the ground and I know they like that too.

Their clubhouse can handle an eccentric personality; I don't think Stroman has gotten to Donaldson levels of jackassery to make him more anathema. And I've also been a believer in the "you can have one" theory in having the weirdo/difficult personality department and right now the Twins don't really have any, but do have strong leadership from the players. (If you have two they might start hanging out and their powers for chaos could be multiplied, lol)

It's an interesting idea. I think he is ripe for a good season and would be a nice addition. Just not sure that we can make the money and/or years work.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

While Duke basketball players can often be questionable characters, I did mean what I said about Stroman as a genuine compliment. He is one of my favorite personalities in baseball.

Cody, I'm just a University of North Carolina  grad trying to be funny. I know nothing about Marcus Stroman.  I assume he is a perfectly nice person.

[Cody Schoenmann]

45 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Cody, I'm just a University of North Carolina  grad trying to be funny. I know nothing about Marcus Stroman.  I assume he is a perfectly nice person.

I know you were just kidding, I wasn't offended or anything. There was multiple comments about the "lovably eccentric personality" line, so I just left a comment under yours. Also, I like NC more than Duke as well, so we are on the same page lol

[darin617]

There are no free agents in the Twins price range that can replace Gray.

The only way to replace Gray is to make a trade. If that means trading someone like Brooks Lee it must be done. I don't want to see Lee traded but the Twins won't spend money so trades are the only way. All I hope is that they can acquire a young talented arm that would have at minimum 3 years of team control. That will be a tall order since teams shouldn't be trading valuable starters away.

[Fatbat]

MS at 18-20M isn’t going to happen. He would be lucky to get a 1 yr 12M prove it from the FO. He is most likely a better fit elsewhere.  
Part of the premise of this post is that we have to find 288innings. Fair enough but you need to include Paddack in that conversation. He will be 24 months removed from TJ by May so can we count on 120 innings from him? Why not? We got 104 from Maeda last year.  
Will our other top 3 guys up their game in ‘24?  I would hope so. They are all young and have upside in their analytics. So if each of them just add .5 WAR more than last year, we will take another central division crown if Paddack just equals Maeda. Thats not asking much. 
Some combo of Varland and the rest of the youngsters should at least equal the WAR from those spots starts of ‘23. 
This is all predicated on someone replacing Gray and his 184 innings and his WAR. Well…. That just isn’t going to happen without some sort big trade or FA signing which isn’t in risk/reward spectrum (mahle) or the budget. 
Do we really have to find Grays missing WAR or just find some inning eaters? 
The offense lit up in the 2nd half. Can we count on that to continue? I would say yes since our offense is intact (-MAT&Donny) …. Easily replaceable offensive production. 

Seems like the budget says, buy some cheaper inning eaters and let the youngsters load up the bases. 
 

[DocBauer]

The Twins have been tied to Stoman for years now. The FO likes him. But he's 2yrs past when the stove was hot concerning adding him. And he's coming off a rather poor, injury affecting season. The fact that he opted out from $20M plus indicates he's looking for a longer term deal, not a 1yr prove it offering.  He left a lot of $ on the table for 2024.

The Twins need to add. Probably a trade first and foremost for a solid arm, with both control and further development possibilities. Just for example, a kid like Cabrera from Miami. Again, just an example. No big contract, not a huge payout prospect or player wise. But that's not what Stroman is looking for. Unless he finds his market tumbling like Lance Lynn did a few years ago, someone will bite on previous history and a rebound.

I'd be in for 1yr with incentives. I'd bite on an extension with some prove it incentives. But I think the FO is going to move on to a trade or a smart 1yr deal, or possible 1+1 on the FA market for Miley, or Wacha, or simiar.

[ValleySpringsFan]

Twins have been interested in Stroman in the past, but imho his 2023 season wasn't bad enough to bring his price tag down to a number the Twins can afford. 

[Doctor Gast]

FA isn't the answer to the Gray problem. Especially in our current situation

[AlwaysinModeration]

He got 3/71 in 2021 as a 30 year old free agent.  He’s not getting more than that as a 32 year old coming off a marginal year (as Bowden says 3/77).  MLB Trade Rumors says his floor is 2/34 and that  maybe something in the Keuchel contract range from last year (3/55) would be reasonable.

Here’s an offer exactly along those lines than I would think reasonable that the Twins might offer:

2 years, 35 million, plus an option year for another 20 million.

I think he has upside and be worth adding.  Plus, it would be fun when Stroman and Simeon Woods-Richardson are both in the rotation this year.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

MS at 18-20M isn’t going to happen. He would be lucky to get a 1 yr 12M prove it from the FO. He is most likely a better fit elsewhere.  
Part of the premise of this post is that we have to find 288innings. Fair enough but you need to include Paddack in that conversation. He will be 24 months removed from TJ by May so can we count on 120 innings from him? Why not? We got 104 from Maeda last year.  
Will our other top 3 guys up their game in ‘24?  I would hope so. They are all young and have upside in their analytics. So if each of them just add .5 WAR more than last year, we will take another central division crown if Paddack just equals Maeda. Thats not asking much. 
Some combo of Varland and the rest of the youngsters should at least equal the WAR from those spots starts of ‘23. 
This is all predicated on someone replacing Gray and his 184 innings and his WAR. Well…. That just isn’t going to happen without some sort big trade or FA signing which isn’t in risk/reward spectrum (mahle) or the budget. 
Do we really have to find Grays missing WAR or just find some inning eaters? 
The offense lit up in the 2nd half. Can we count on that to continue? I would say yes since our offense is intact (-MAT&Donny) …. Easily replaceable offensive production. 

Seems like the budget says, buy some cheaper inning eaters and let the youngsters load up the bases. 
 

He opted out of his final year for $21M so his agent must be pretty sure he is getting more than a 1/$12M prove it contract.

[TopGunn#22]

Stroman made a mistake by opting out of the final year of his Cubs deal.  I know the money for pitching is always insane, Heck, I can't believe Maeda got what he did, but I also do not think Stroman is a good fit.

I'd much rather take a chance on Giolito or Bauer, guys that can strike people out and stack innings.  The biggest addition is going to come via a trade but at least one other addition will come in the form of a FA signing.  It just depends on how penurious the Twins turn out being.  

They've got to come up with a CF option.  I had proposed a trade with St. Louis on BBTV that sent Connor Prielipp away for Tyler O'Neill.  I see an O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, maybe a Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers or something like a FA signing of Adam Duval and/or Nick Senzel helping fill the CF problem.  Castro will also be a factor.  I wish I had a better idea of what the Twins think of Austin Martin as a CF.

But before any of that happens the first shoe must drop on a Twins SP acquisition, either by trade or FA.

[old nurse]

Stroman probably expects the big contract. I don’t think he will get it. I think there will be the Lance Lynn Twins effect. 

[Finlander]

Stroman was only effective in April and the first week or two of May last year. How do you throw $20-25M at him? Gotta trade instead. It'll cost some prospect talent, but including the Grey comp pick in an offer may protect Lee/ERod level players from being in the deal.

[HrbieFan]

100% H no on Stroman! Well, unless he signed for under $5m 

[Shaitan]

13 hours ago, old nurse said:

Stroman probably expects the big contract. I don’t think he will get it. I think there will be the Lance Lynn Twins effect. 

With most players I'd agree. But I think Stroman possibly just really didn't like being with the Cubs. (I mean, who can blame him if that's the case.) In most opt out scenarios it's about the market. Stroman is enough of an individual that it's possible he just didn't like the fit.

[KBJ1]

NO! And no chance they would.