Is Marcus Stroman the Most Realistic Option to Replace Sonny Gray?

He's more of a groundball pitcher and the Twins tend to prefer flyball guys in the rotation.

"lovably eccentric personality" is Minnesota Nice for a-hole.

No thanks.

Next.

If they wouldn't go 25m per year over 3 years for Gray, an older but clearly superior option to Stroman, why on earth would you think they'd pay only 5m a year less for a guy who struggled before going on the IL and showed no signs of getting back to above average performance after returning from the IL? If the difference between Gray and Stroman is only $5m per year abd a compensatory draft pick and they let Gray walk for the draft pick, there's no way they'll commit to Stroman for that much..

I get that Gray is a regression candidate and letting him go came with a draft pick, but even if Gray regresses back to his 2022 numbers, that's still better than we'd see out of Stroman. Save that $20m to extend someone that we didn't get fleeced for in a trade. The front office has shown us they can be crafty with a trade. I don't think they've lost the ability to think outside the box. We can get a controllable arm that might not have great numbers with their current team, but the metrics show upside that our pitching coaches seem to be able to unlock, i.e. Pagan (although it took a brutal year for him to figure it out, that won't always be the case.)

If you're expecting the Twins to acquire someone, whether it's via trade or free agency, with numbers even close to duplicating Gray's production, you're in for a rude awakening. They're going to settle for less this year. It's going to look disappointing. Hopefully that find the hidden gem that surprises everyone. That's the reality we have to deal with and hope for. 

The Gray replacement comes via trade.  100%.  Wouldn't mind a FA addition to bolster the back end of the rotation and provide insurance for Paddock.

I like the idea but I seriously doubt the Twins passed on 25mil/yr for Gray and 12/mil a yr on Kenta so they could spend 20mil a yr plus on another pitcher 

I think it's a fit for the Twins if he's interested in a 1 or 2 year deal to restore his value; if it's a 3 year deal in the Gray range (which seems unlikely to me, and I doubt Bowden's info is coming from inside a ballclub, more likely a number made up from the top of BS Mountain, or possibly from Stroman's agent) then it's likely to be a no. But it could be an interesting indicator of a) what the starting pitching market is like, b) who is ready to spend, and c) whether or not Sonny Gray took a real discount or not to put himself in St. Louis. I just don't know where the money will land for him or if someone is going to want to go 3 years at the kind of number he wants to bring in.

I'm unconcerned about the GB%, and the front office isn't going to pass on a guy in their price range because of it. I think they feel pretty good about their infield defense with Correa and Lewis on the left side and from the improvement Julien showed on the right, but they also know that very few HRs are hit on the ground and I know they like that too.

Their clubhouse can handle an eccentric personality; I don't think Stroman has gotten to Donaldson levels of jackassery to make him more anathema. And I've also been a believer in the "you can have one" theory in having the weirdo/difficult personality department and right now the Twins don't really have any, but do have strong leadership from the players. (If you have two they might start hanging out and their powers for chaos could be multiplied, lol)

It's an interesting idea. I think he is ripe for a good season and would be a nice addition. Just not sure that we can make the money and/or years work.

There are no free agents in the Twins price range that can replace Gray.

The only way to replace Gray is to make a trade. If that means trading someone like Brooks Lee it must be done. I don't want to see Lee traded but the Twins won't spend money so trades are the only way. All I hope is that they can acquire a young talented arm that would have at minimum 3 years of team control. That will be a tall order since teams shouldn't be trading valuable starters away.

MS at 18-20M isn’t going to happen. He would be lucky to get a 1 yr 12M prove it from the FO. He is most likely a better fit elsewhere.  
Part of the premise of this post is that we have to find 288innings. Fair enough but you need to include Paddack in that conversation. He will be 24 months removed from TJ by May so can we count on 120 innings from him? Why not? We got 104 from Maeda last year.  
Will our other top 3 guys up their game in ‘24?  I would hope so. They are all young and have upside in their analytics. So if each of them just add .5 WAR more than last year, we will take another central division crown if Paddack just equals Maeda. Thats not asking much. 
Some combo of Varland and the rest of the youngsters should at least equal the WAR from those spots starts of ‘23. 
This is all predicated on someone replacing Gray and his 184 innings and his WAR. Well…. That just isn’t going to happen without some sort big trade or FA signing which isn’t in risk/reward spectrum (mahle) or the budget. 
Do we really have to find Grays missing WAR or just find some inning eaters? 
The offense lit up in the 2nd half. Can we count on that to continue? I would say yes since our offense is intact (-MAT&Donny) …. Easily replaceable offensive production. 

Seems like the budget says, buy some cheaper inning eaters and let the youngsters load up the bases. 
 

FA isn't the answer to the Gray problem. Especially in our current situation

He got 3/71 in 2021 as a 30 year old free agent.  He’s not getting more than that as a 32 year old coming off a marginal year (as Bowden says 3/77).  MLB Trade Rumors says his floor is 2/34 and that  maybe something in the Keuchel contract range from last year (3/55) would be reasonable.

Here’s an offer exactly along those lines than I would think reasonable that the Twins might offer:

2 years, 35 million, plus an option year for another 20 million.

I think he has upside and be worth adding.  Plus, it would be fun when Stroman and Simeon Woods-Richardson are both in the rotation this year.

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

MS at 18-20M isn’t going to happen. He would be lucky to get a 1 yr 12M prove it from the FO. He is most likely a better fit elsewhere.  
Part of the premise of this post is that we have to find 288innings. Fair enough but you need to include Paddack in that conversation. He will be 24 months removed from TJ by May so can we count on 120 innings from him? Why not? We got 104 from Maeda last year.  
Will our other top 3 guys up their game in ‘24?  I would hope so. They are all young and have upside in their analytics. So if each of them just add .5 WAR more than last year, we will take another central division crown if Paddack just equals Maeda. Thats not asking much. 
Some combo of Varland and the rest of the youngsters should at least equal the WAR from those spots starts of ‘23. 
This is all predicated on someone replacing Gray and his 184 innings and his WAR. Well…. That just isn’t going to happen without some sort big trade or FA signing which isn’t in risk/reward spectrum (mahle) or the budget. 
Do we really have to find Grays missing WAR or just find some inning eaters? 
The offense lit up in the 2nd half. Can we count on that to continue? I would say yes since our offense is intact (-MAT&Donny) …. Easily replaceable offensive production. 

Seems like the budget says, buy some cheaper inning eaters and let the youngsters load up the bases. 
 

He opted out of his final year for $21M so his agent must be pretty sure he is getting more than a 1/$12M prove it contract.

Stroman made a mistake by opting out of the final year of his Cubs deal.  I know the money for pitching is always insane, Heck, I can't believe Maeda got what he did, but I also do not think Stroman is a good fit.

I'd much rather take a chance on Giolito or Bauer, guys that can strike people out and stack innings.  The biggest addition is going to come via a trade but at least one other addition will come in the form of a FA signing.  It just depends on how penurious the Twins turn out being.  

They've got to come up with a CF option.  I had proposed a trade with St. Louis on BBTV that sent Connor Prielipp away for Tyler O'Neill.  I see an O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, maybe a Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers or something like a FA signing of Adam Duval and/or Nick Senzel helping fill the CF problem.  Castro will also be a factor.  I wish I had a better idea of what the Twins think of Austin Martin as a CF.

But before any of that happens the first shoe must drop on a Twins SP acquisition, either by trade or FA.

Stroman probably expects the big contract. I don’t think he will get it. I think there will be the Lance Lynn Twins effect. 

Stroman was only effective in April and the first week or two of May last year. How do you throw $20-25M at him? Gotta trade instead. It'll cost some prospect talent, but including the Grey comp pick in an offer may protect Lee/ERod level players from being in the deal.

100% H no on Stroman! Well, unless he signed for under $5m 

13 hours ago, old nurse said:

Stroman probably expects the big contract. I don’t think he will get it. I think there will be the Lance Lynn Twins effect. 

With most players I'd agree. But I think Stroman possibly just really didn't like being with the Cubs. (I mean, who can blame him if that's the case.) In most opt out scenarios it's about the market. Stroman is enough of an individual that it's possible he just didn't like the fit.

NO! And no chance they would.