What Should the Twins Do With Jordan Balazovic?

[Cody Schoenmann]

With the Twins annual end-of-season 40-man roster reconstruction on the horizon, they will be forced to make tough decisions on who to release and who to add. One of the more fascinating players who may be affected by the 40-man roster reconstruction is former top prospect Jordan Balazovic. What should the Twins do with him?

Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox - USA TODAY Sports

After thanking players, coaching staff, and fans, the first line of action the Twins front office makes upon the conclusion of the season is the annual 40-man roster cleanse or reconstruction. Typically, around five to seven players on the 40-man roster are placed on waivers. Upon being placed on waivers, these players can be claimed by a different organization, outrighted to Triple-A, or released. 

Around this time last season, the Twins placed Jake Cave, Jermaine Palacios, Caleb Hamilton, Devin Smeltzer, and Jhon Romero on waivers, removing them from the 40-man roster.

Cave, Palacios, and Hamilton were eventually claimed by different organizations, and Smeltzer and Romero were assigned to Triple-A. Following the World Series, Smeltzer and Romero became minor-league free agents, and none of the five players listed played for the Twins in 2023. 

Organizations undergo these rather substantial roster purges to open up 40-man roster spots to add minor-league players they don’t want to subject to the Rule 5 Draft and because they need space to make trades or sign free agents. 

With Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Donovan Solano, Joey Gallo, and Michael A. Taylor set to become free agents once the 2023 season officially concludes, the Twins will have eight 40-man roster spots opened up initially.

Matt Canterino, José De León, Jovani Moran, Oliver Ortega, Jose Miranda, and Nick Gordon must also be activated from the 60-day IL once the 2023 season concludes. So, with eight players entering free agency and six being activated from the 60-day IL, the Twins will have two 40-man roster spots available before they begin their reconstruction.

Having two roster spots available is a suitable start. Regardless, the Twins will need to open up more spots to add Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to avoid the possibility of them getting poached by other teams. The Twins front office has been one of the more active groups in the last three offseasons, so they will need to make space to fulfill any future free-agent signings or trades.

Waiving Cave, Palacios, Hamilton, Smeltzer, and Romero were relatively uncontroversial and obvious moves to make last season. Regardless, this season, the upcoming decision the Twins front office is tasked to make will be much more complex.

To illustrate how the Twins will be forced to make complicated decisions, let’s look at which members of the Twins’ 40-man roster are potential candidates to be waived:

• Jorge Alcala, De León, Canterino, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Moran, Ortega, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Jordan Luplow, Andrew Stevenson, and Gordon

The vast majority of players listed are relief pitchers who would fulfill the Twins’ eighth bullpen spot that tends to be given to a young pitcher who is a viable stretch relief option that can be used in an emergency to eat up innings. During the 2023 regular season, Sands, Headrick, or Winder often occupied this role. 

Though these types of pitchers are interchangeable and replaceable in theory, the pitchers listed above did an adequate job, and their spots on the Twins’ 40-man roster likely aren’t in jeopardy.

That being said, there is a young pitcher on the 40-man roster who doesn’t fit that description, and that pitcher is once-prized Twins’ prospect Jordan Balazovic. 

Balazovic made his Twins debut in 2023, appearing in relief against the Detroit Tigers on June 18. In his debut, Balazovic faced 13 batters through 3 2/3 innings pitched and helped the Twins get through a blowout loss without unnecessarily expending their high-leverage relievers.

Though Balazovic played the role of stretch reliever in his Major League debut, he quickly became part of the mid-to-high leverage short reliever mix, not throwing more than one inning of relief in his subsequent five appearances. 

Balazovic performed admirably during his first taste as a short reliever with the Twins. To add context to how well he performed, here are Balazovic’s numbers from June 18 to July 24.

• 14 innings pitched, 56 total batters faced, 1.29 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 12 hits, two earned runs, two home runs, four walks, ten strikeouts, 6.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, .250 BABIP, 100 LOB%, 13.3 HR/FB% 

On the surface, Balazovic performed very well, as shown by his impressive 1.29 ERA through 56 total batters faced, but his underlying metrics told a different story.

Balazovic’s FIP, which, according to Fangraphs, illustrates what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league-average results on balls in play and league-average timing, was 4.54 during that period of time. 

Combining Balazovic's high FIP, 6.43 K/9, and substantially below average HR/FB% of 13.3%, he was due for robust regression, which is precisely what happened. 

On July 27, Balazovic had a rather implosive relief outing in which he gave up three earned runs after facing just seven batters in 1 1/3 innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners.

Many of Balazovic's future performances had similar outcomes, and from July 26 through August 19, Balazovic pitched to an 8.71 ERA, 8.00 FIP, and 21.4% HR/FB% before getting demoted to the Triple-A St. Paul Saints on August 19.  

Balazovic didn't make another appearance for the Twins in the regular or postseason and ended his rookie season with a lackluster 4.44 ERA and 6.01 FIP through 24 1/3 innings pitched.

The season has reached its conclusion, and the Twins find themselves in a complicated position as they need to decide if they want to keep Balazovic on the 40-man roster or replace him with a Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor league player who has a greater chance of positively contributing to the team in the near-to-distant future, or a free agency or trade acquisition further down the line. 

Before we decide the best route the Twins could take with Balazovic and his future with the team, let's first identify which minor league players are Rule 5 Draft-eligible.

Here are the noteworthy minor league players that could realistically get poached by a different franchise in the Rule 5 Draft:

• Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Jose Salas, Ricardo Olivar, Aaron Sabato, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Cody Laweryson, and Chris Williams

Of the minor leaguers listed, the only players guaranteed to be added to the 40-man roster are Martin, Rodriguez, Camargo and, more likely than not, Severino.

The "bubble" players who could realistically get added are Keirsey, Olivar, Prato, Helman, Laweryson, and Williams. Many of these players are already in Triple-A. The players listed could potentially contribute for the Twins immediately. Even so, there is the possibility that no other teams would claim them, meaning the Twins could keep them in the organization without using a 40-man roster spot. 

Salas and Sabato won't be added to the 40-man roster. Although Salas is too young and underdeveloped for any Major League team to add them to their 26-man roster, Sabato may get claimed by a non-contending team like the Oakland Athletics or Kansas City Royals. 

The Twins will find a way to get Martin, Rodriguez, Camargo and likely Severino and Keirsey Jr. on the 40-man roster. To get these five players on the roster, the Twins could part ways with relatively expendable players, and the once-prized prospect Balazovic could be one of the players.

When deciding which three and potentially more players the Twins will waive, we must determine which players on the 40-man roster are more valuable than others, and much of that can be determined by opportunity and potential. 

Based on the opportunity given to them by the Twins and their potential, Woods Richardson, Headrick, Sands, Canterino, and Winder appear to be locks to be on the 40-man roster next season.

So, after using deductive reasoning, that leaves us with Luplow, Stevenson, De León, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, Ortega, Gordon, and Balazovic as the top candidates to be expunged from the 40-man roster.

Of the nine players listed, here is where I believe they stand in likelihood of being waived to make room for Rule 5 Draft-eligible players:

(*1 is most likely and 9 is least likely)

1. Luplow
2. Gordon
3. De León
4. Ortega
5. Balazovic
6. Henriquez
7. Moran
8. Stevenson
9. Alcala

With the Twins likely adding five Rule 5 Draft-eligible players to the 40-man roster and needing space to execute trades and sign free agents, it might be in their best interest to place Balazovic on waivers to make space. However, four or five players are seemingly more likely to be waived before him.

Luplow, Gordon, and De León feel like the most obvious players the Twins could waive, but the two provide a veteran presence and potential to contribute to a playoff-hopeful 26-man roster. The Twins front office, known for valuing veteran depth pieces, could realistically keep the two, leaving Ortega, Henriquez, Moran, and Balazovic more susceptible.

Stevenson contributed toward the Twins' postseason run and was a member of the 26-man playoff roster, so it appears the Twins are inclined to keep him around for the time being. Alcala seems to be part of the Twins rotation plans going forward, so he likely won't be waived either.

Balazovic was once an MLB.com top-100 prospect on the verge of being a core member of the Twins starting rotation for seasons to come. Unfortunately, after undergoing unfortunate injuries, off-field issues, and poor performance at Triple-A and the Major Leagues, Balazovic has quickly become an expendable asset on the Twins' 40-man roster. 

The Twins' annual 40-man roster reconstruction will soon occur. With the Twins needing to create roster spots to add Rule 5 Draft-eligible players in prevention of them getting poached by other teams and the need to create roster spots to manufacture trades and sign free agents, the Twins could realistically waive Balazovic among other players to create the necessary space needed.

What do you think of Balazovic's future with the Twins? Should the Twins waive him to create space on the 40-man roster? Comment below. 

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[JD-TWINS]

Can’t imagine the organization holds any value in keeping Stevenson on 40 man. He’s got good speed and had playoff experience so he made sense in ‘23 for expanded roster & playoffs, with other guys being hurt. Can’t hit at high enough level. He’s gone. Similar profile for Luplow.

IMO, Balazovic is in our 8 man Pen when Spring Training breaks at end of March. Needs experience - can’t let him get pilfered!!

Interesting looks at the roster issues by the author - well done!!!

[DJL44]

I would have a different order

1. De León (injured and unavailable for 2024, plus he's 30)
2. Luplow
3. Ortega
4. Stevenson
5. Balazovic
6. Henriquez
7. Moran
8. Gordon
9. Alcala

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great job Cody. I am so glad I don't have to make these decisions. 

[pierre75275]

I have a different order also

De Leon

Luplow

Ortega

Stevenson

Gordon

Balazavic

Henriquez

Moran 

Alcala

Altho I doubt the move more than 5 or 6.

[DJL44]

I would like to see Balazovic replaced on the 40 man roster with a better pitcher. He is at the age (26 in 2024) where he needs to be able to contribute or find a new home.

[Dman]

I have De Leon, Luplow, Ortega, and Stevenson off the 40 man for sure.  Gordon is far from a certainty IMO, but if they don't see Balazovic as a starter and if his stuff isn't as good as Henriquez, Moran and Alcala he could be next in line to be moved if room is needed.  

I think you need to keep in mind there still could be trades of Farmer, Polanco or Kepler especially if the Twins need to trim payroll and they also need to backfill pitching so Maeda could be back as could Pagan if they can't find anything better at their price points.  They also might want to add more proven arms to the pen.  Hard to say.  Still I don't think Jordy is a for sure gonner, but  I agree he is on the bubble.

 

[Wizard11]

To me Henriquez is more likely cut than Moran.  I believe Alcala is kept.  I think it is possible we see all of the other 6 you listed as being cut.  They are all replaceable by widely available minor league free agents. 

Also I think they would only keep at most one of Stevenson or Keirsey.  They would bring similar things to the roster.  Given that Keirsey is 26 I doubt either of these 2 are kept.

I would add that it puzzles me so many fans think Nick Gordon should be kept.  He has zero positions he plays well defensively, is not an accomplished base stealer, is a weak hitter (no, 10 good weeks are not more important than the rest of his major and minor league numbers), and he is no longer a young prospect.  He is a very likable player but not the type who is part of a future championship club.

 

[roger]

I know two things regarding this annual exercise.  One, I don't have a clue what they will do.  And two, I will be surprised about at least one of the players moving on and shocked at one or more of the moves they make or don't make regarding preparation for the Rule 5.

[Seth Stohs]

I think the immediate moves would be Luplow and Stevenson, and De Leon makes sense too (though I'd offer him a 2 year, minor-league deal).

They'll add Camargo (before the end of the World Series) and then they'll add Martin and Rodriguez in late November. May make a couple of drops at that point. 

No need to drop players until they need to drop players.  

[mikelink45]

I really don't see the problem.  For the most part these are marginal players.  If they are not going to make the team or be trade bait it is time to move on.  Not all will be gone, but what matters now is the immediate future. 

[DocBauer]

De Leon and Luplow are easy. One is a 30yo who was just finding himself as a pen option before blowing out his arm. He won't even be available in 2024. Luplow is replacement level.

On the opposite side of things, Moran, Alcala, and Henriquez are virtual locks for me. I know Moran disappointed this season with his Jeckle/Hyde performances, but his stuff is really good. Alcala has done little the past 2 years. But he's still only 28yo and was throwing high 90's at the end of this year. Someone would snap him up in a second to see what they could do with him. Might as well be the Twins who get first crack at a healthy again Alcala. And Henriquez flashed near the end of this season and is still only 23yo and was relieving for the first time. No way I cut him loose this early.

Ortega, Stevenson, and Gordon are almost tied for me. Ortega has shown just enough in the past, and while in the Twins organization, that I keep him beyond De Leon and Luplow. But I also have to make room for trades, FA, and some rule V prospects, so he's probably the next on this list to go. And do you realize that Stevenson is only about 6 months older than Gordon? And he's a better base stealer and OF defender than Gordon. So Gordon is the better player because he can play a little 2B and SS...but not as good as others currently on the roster...and has the really nice half a 2022 season? IDK. Pick one first and then the other one next. 

As to the OP, I keep Balazovic for another year with little to no hesitation. Two years ago he was a top 100 prospect. Then he struggled all of 2022 with a rough knee, and then mechanics as he tried to heal from it and get back to his old self. And now he appears to be transitioning to the pen. Healthy again and only 25yo, that's an arm you give another shot to. So I don't think he's going anywhere, and shouldn't.

[sun]

If push come to shove I'm not concerned about losing Balazavic. The Twins have better pitchers to protect & he won't take the Twins to the promised land. I would like to see Gordon remain on the roster because he has some trade value as a utility player. 

[Brandon]

Balazovich should be safe for one more season.  You can never have too much pitching.  I am more curious about Enlow.  What happens to him?  is he a minor league free agent?  

[Linus]

I’m not sure what you do with Balazovic but I know what you don’t do. That is count on him for any meaningful role for the Twins next year. 

[rv78]

The only one I'm interested in keeping is Alcala. I liked Gordon but he doesn't bring enough to the table and Castro has earned/taken his spot on the roster. Moran and Henriquez are the only other two I would possibly consider if I didn't need room for someone else. The others are very replaceable with other players.

[FlyingFinn]

1. Luplow
2. De León
3. Stevenson
4. Gordon
5. Ortega
6. Henriquez
7. Balazovic
8. Alcala
9. Moran

I think Stevenson will be DFA'd but then the Twins will try get him back with the Saints. Moran shouldn't even be on this list. No way he is cut.

[jorgenswest]

For any of these decisions options have a lot of value to the Twins.

Alcala, Moran, Henriquez and Ortega have options remaining. 

Luplow, Stevenson, Gordon and Balazovic are out of options. They need to sustain performance at the major league level. Gordon is the only one who has shown sustained performance over a season unless you go back to 2019 for Luplow. I would give Gordon priority among the 4 who would need to be rostered all season. 

Free agents will be dropped from the roster and Farmer may be non tendered due to his arb 3 contract. After De León, Luplow, Stevenson I think Balazovic would be my next to go if roster space is needed. He is going to have to perform at a much higher level to make it through the season without DFA.

[tony&rodney]

Doubt whether Luplow, De Leon, Stevenson, Ortega, or Henriquez have 40 person spots. Gordon is iffy but I think he stays. Alcala and Moran are also iffy but with options and have shown some promise. 

Balazovic has done nothing to earn a spot on the roster really. He hasn't looked composed or effective with any consistency to even be mediocre. However, I think he stays until later additions bump him.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

For any of these decisions options have a lot of value to the Twins.

Alcala, Moran, Henriquez and Ortega have options remaining. 

Luplow, Stevenson, Gordon and Balazovic are out of options. They need to sustain performance at the major league level. Gordon is the only one who has shown sustained performance over a season unless you go back to 2019 for Luplow. I would give Gordon priority among the 4 who would need to be rostered all season. 

Free agents will be dropped from the roster and Farmer may be non tendered due to his arb 3 contract. After De León, Luplow, Stevenson I think Balazovic would be my next to go if roster space is needed. He is going to have to perform at a much higher level to make it through the season without DFA.

Farmer won’t be DFA as he would probably be the top SS in free agency.  Surely he is worth a good prospect to someone in a trade.

[Brandon]

Also the Twins don’t have much to do on their roster this winter so how many players really need to be let go?  Maybe 3 or 4. 

[Fatbat]

11 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

1. Luplow
2. De León
3. Stevenson
4. Gordon
5. Ortega
6. Henriquez
7. Balazovic
8. Alcala
9. Moran

I think Stevenson will be DFA'd but then the Twins will try get him back with the Saints. Moran shouldn't even be on this list. No way he is cut.

💯!! Gordon will likely be in a package trade. I think Ortega clears waivers and goes across the river. Stevenson also. 

[miracleb]

Good, "one stop spot" to put all of this information together....TY Cody!

[saviking]

I don't think Balazovic is in danger of being pilfered and will pass on through. If Gordon winds up on the list, he will be ..

[Otaknam]

Gordon has been surpassed by Wili Castro as a utility player. Castro’s speed was a weapon and separates him from Gordon. So hopefully Castro is on the team next year. I hope Balazovic retains his roster spot and continues to develop as a BP arm if not starter. Henriquez and Alcala have great arms so keeping them makes sense to me. I believe they will also keep Moran based on his stuff. Hopefully he can improve his command. Someone will take a chance on a lefty reliever with great stuff but control issues.

[jorgenswest]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

Farmer won’t be DFA as he would probably be the top SS in free agency.  Surely he is worth a good prospect to someone in a trade.

A back up could be the top SS. It is a zero sum game. No one is losing a starting shortstop to free agency either. There are a few other teams with a tender or option decision like the White Sox and Anderson but that only adds to the supply when White Sox decide to go with their top prospect Montgomery. It actually might have a better market for the Reds to deal Farmer last year with so many teams in need of a SS.

It could be a similar return as Urshela or similar to what the Twins traded. In that case it becomes a choice about whether the guy they take off the 40 to tender and trade Farmer is worth more than what they can get back for Farmer. If it is a player like Balazovic, I think it will be a close call.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

A back up could be the top SS. It is a zero sum game. No one is losing a starting shortstop to free agency either.

There are a couple SS retiring. The Marlins have already mentioned they want to upgrade at SS.

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

A back up could be the top SS. It is a zero sum game. No one is losing a starting shortstop to free agency either. There are a few other teams with a tender or option decision like the White Sox and Anderson but that only adds to the supply when White Sox decide to go with their top prospect Montgomery. It actually might have a better market for the Reds to deal Farmer last year with so many teams in need of a SS.

It could be a similar return as Urshela or similar to what the Twins traded. In that case it becomes a choice about whether the guy they take off the 40 to tender and trade Farmer is worth more than what they can get back for Farmer. If it is a player like Balazovic, I think it will be a close call.

The dodgers could use a good SS.  So could the Marlins.  Who is the SS in Cleveland now?  I’m sure I could find another team or too where a slightly above average defender with average offense is a big upgrade over what they have now.  

[jorgenswest]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are a couple SS retiring. The Marlins have already mentioned they want to upgrade at SS.

Berti is 33 with an OPS of 749 and slightly above average defensive metrics. I don’t see how Farmer at the same age would be an upgrade. An upgrade might be their number 5 prospect who has a very good glove. Is that the best we have in a demand for Farmer?

I think there are more prospects in the pipeline than starters retiring. Crawford from the Giants? There are 12 shortstops in the top 30 of the MLB pipeline. Many have any ETA of 2024 or arrived in late 2023. The Giants have one of them. 

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The dodgers could use a good SS.  So could the Marlins.  Who is the SS in Cleveland now?  I’m sure I could find another team or too where a slightly above average defender with average offense is a big upgrade over what they have now.  

The definition of big is obviously subjective. 

Big Lake Minnesota is on the shores of Big Lake. Somebody named it Big Lake so somebody at one time thought it actually was a BIG Lake... hence the chosen name.  

However, if you look at the numbers and compare those size numbers with other lakes in Minnesota. Big lake ain't that Big in comparison.   😉