What Should the Twins Do With Jordan Balazovic?

After thanking players, coaching staff, and fans, the first line of action the Twins front office makes upon the conclusion of the season is the annual 40-man roster cleanse or reconstruction. Typically, around five to seven players on the 40-man roster are placed on waivers. Upon being placed on waivers, these players can be claimed by a different organization, outrighted to Triple-A, or released. 

Around this time last season, the Twins placed Jake Cave, Jermaine Palacios, Caleb Hamilton, Devin Smeltzer, and Jhon Romero on waivers, removing them from the 40-man roster.

Cave, Palacios, and Hamilton were eventually claimed by different organizations, and Smeltzer and Romero were assigned to Triple-A. Following the World Series, Smeltzer and Romero became minor-league free agents, and none of the five players listed played for the Twins in 2023. 

Organizations undergo these rather substantial roster purges to open up 40-man roster spots to add minor-league players they don’t want to subject to the Rule 5 Draft and because they need space to make trades or sign free agents. 

With Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Donovan Solano, Joey Gallo, and Michael A. Taylor set to become free agents once the 2023 season officially concludes, the Twins will have eight 40-man roster spots opened up initially.

Matt Canterino, José De León, Jovani Moran, Oliver Ortega, Jose Miranda, and Nick Gordon must also be activated from the 60-day IL once the 2023 season concludes. So, with eight players entering free agency and six being activated from the 60-day IL, the Twins will have two 40-man roster spots available before they begin their reconstruction.

Having two roster spots available is a suitable start. Regardless, the Twins will need to open up more spots to add Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to avoid the possibility of them getting poached by other teams. The Twins front office has been one of the more active groups in the last three offseasons, so they will need to make space to fulfill any future free-agent signings or trades.

Waiving Cave, Palacios, Hamilton, Smeltzer, and Romero were relatively uncontroversial and obvious moves to make last season. Regardless, this season, the upcoming decision the Twins front office is tasked to make will be much more complex.

To illustrate how the Twins will be forced to make complicated decisions, let’s look at which members of the Twins’ 40-man roster are potential candidates to be waived:

• Jorge Alcala, De León, Canterino, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Moran, Ortega, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Jordan Luplow, Andrew Stevenson, and Gordon

The vast majority of players listed are relief pitchers who would fulfill the Twins’ eighth bullpen spot that tends to be given to a young pitcher who is a viable stretch relief option that can be used in an emergency to eat up innings. During the 2023 regular season, Sands, Headrick, or Winder often occupied this role. 

Though these types of pitchers are interchangeable and replaceable in theory, the pitchers listed above did an adequate job, and their spots on the Twins’ 40-man roster likely aren’t in jeopardy.

That being said, there is a young pitcher on the 40-man roster who doesn’t fit that description, and that pitcher is once-prized Twins’ prospect Jordan Balazovic. 

Balazovic made his Twins debut in 2023, appearing in relief against the Detroit Tigers on June 18. In his debut, Balazovic faced 13 batters through 3 2/3 innings pitched and helped the Twins get through a blowout loss without unnecessarily expending their high-leverage relievers.

Though Balazovic played the role of stretch reliever in his Major League debut, he quickly became part of the mid-to-high leverage short reliever mix, not throwing more than one inning of relief in his subsequent five appearances. 

Balazovic performed admirably during his first taste as a short reliever with the Twins. To add context to how well he performed, here are Balazovic’s numbers from June 18 to July 24.

• 14 innings pitched, 56 total batters faced, 1.29 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 12 hits, two earned runs, two home runs, four walks, ten strikeouts, 6.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, .250 BABIP, 100 LOB%, 13.3 HR/FB% 

On the surface, Balazovic performed very well, as shown by his impressive 1.29 ERA through 56 total batters faced, but his underlying metrics told a different story.

Balazovic’s FIP, which, according to Fangraphs, illustrates what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league-average results on balls in play and league-average timing, was 4.54 during that period of time. 

Combining Balazovic's high FIP, 6.43 K/9, and substantially below average HR/FB% of 13.3%, he was due for robust regression, which is precisely what happened. 

On July 27, Balazovic had a rather implosive relief outing in which he gave up three earned runs after facing just seven batters in 1 1/3 innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners.

Many of Balazovic's future performances had similar outcomes, and from July 26 through August 19, Balazovic pitched to an 8.71 ERA, 8.00 FIP, and 21.4% HR/FB% before getting demoted to the Triple-A St. Paul Saints on August 19.  

Balazovic didn't make another appearance for the Twins in the regular or postseason and ended his rookie season with a lackluster 4.44 ERA and 6.01 FIP through 24 1/3 innings pitched.

The season has reached its conclusion, and the Twins find themselves in a complicated position as they need to decide if they want to keep Balazovic on the 40-man roster or replace him with a Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor league player who has a greater chance of positively contributing to the team in the near-to-distant future, or a free agency or trade acquisition further down the line. 

Before we decide the best route the Twins could take with Balazovic and his future with the team, let's first identify which minor league players are Rule 5 Draft-eligible.

Here are the noteworthy minor league players that could realistically get poached by a different franchise in the Rule 5 Draft:

• Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Jose Salas, Ricardo Olivar, Aaron Sabato, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Cody Laweryson, and Chris Williams

Of the minor leaguers listed, the only players guaranteed to be added to the 40-man roster are Martin, Rodriguez, Camargo and, more likely than not, Severino.

The "bubble" players who could realistically get added are Keirsey, Olivar, Prato, Helman, Laweryson, and Williams. Many of these players are already in Triple-A. The players listed could potentially contribute for the Twins immediately. Even so, there is the possibility that no other teams would claim them, meaning the Twins could keep them in the organization without using a 40-man roster spot. 

Salas and Sabato won't be added to the 40-man roster. Although Salas is too young and underdeveloped for any Major League team to add them to their 26-man roster, Sabato may get claimed by a non-contending team like the Oakland Athletics or Kansas City Royals. 

The Twins will find a way to get Martin, Rodriguez, Camargo and likely Severino and Keirsey Jr. on the 40-man roster. To get these five players on the roster, the Twins could part ways with relatively expendable players, and the once-prized prospect Balazovic could be one of the players.

When deciding which three and potentially more players the Twins will waive, we must determine which players on the 40-man roster are more valuable than others, and much of that can be determined by opportunity and potential. 

Based on the opportunity given to them by the Twins and their potential, Woods Richardson, Headrick, Sands, Canterino, and Winder appear to be locks to be on the 40-man roster next season.

So, after using deductive reasoning, that leaves us with Luplow, Stevenson, De León, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, Ortega, Gordon, and Balazovic as the top candidates to be expunged from the 40-man roster.

Of the nine players listed, here is where I believe they stand in likelihood of being waived to make room for Rule 5 Draft-eligible players:

(*1 is most likely and 9 is least likely)

1. Luplow
2. Gordon
3. De León
4. Ortega
5. Balazovic
6. Henriquez
7. Moran
8. Stevenson
9. Alcala

With the Twins likely adding five Rule 5 Draft-eligible players to the 40-man roster and needing space to execute trades and sign free agents, it might be in their best interest to place Balazovic on waivers to make space. However, four or five players are seemingly more likely to be waived before him.

Luplow, Gordon, and De León feel like the most obvious players the Twins could waive, but the two provide a veteran presence and potential to contribute to a playoff-hopeful 26-man roster. The Twins front office, known for valuing veteran depth pieces, could realistically keep the two, leaving Ortega, Henriquez, Moran, and Balazovic more susceptible.

Stevenson contributed toward the Twins' postseason run and was a member of the 26-man playoff roster, so it appears the Twins are inclined to keep him around for the time being. Alcala seems to be part of the Twins rotation plans going forward, so he likely won't be waived either.

Balazovic was once an MLB.com top-100 prospect on the verge of being a core member of the Twins starting rotation for seasons to come. Unfortunately, after undergoing unfortunate injuries, off-field issues, and poor performance at Triple-A and the Major Leagues, Balazovic has quickly become an expendable asset on the Twins' 40-man roster. 

The Twins' annual 40-man roster reconstruction will soon occur. With the Twins needing to create roster spots to add Rule 5 Draft-eligible players in prevention of them getting poached by other teams and the need to create roster spots to manufacture trades and sign free agents, the Twins could realistically waive Balazovic among other players to create the necessary space needed.

What do you think of Balazovic's future with the Twins? Should the Twins waive him to create space on the 40-man roster? Comment below.