What Should the Twins Do With Jordan Balazovic?

[HerbieFan]

My opinion, which if you have it and a buck you can get a cup of coffee at the 7-11, is that Balezovic needs to be returned to starting.  Doesn't seem like his stuff plays up in a bullpen role.  In the 'pen he's just a guy.  Injuries derailed the development as a starter.  I'd like to see him given one more year there.

[jorgenswest]

50 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

My opinion, which if you have it and a buck you can get a cup of coffee at the 7-11, is that Balezovic needs to be returned to starting.  Doesn't seem like his stuff plays up in a bullpen role.  In the 'pen he's just a guy.  Injuries derailed the development as a starter.  I'd like to see him given one more year there.

He is out of options. Would you make him the number 5 starter? Would you DFA him in hopes of getting him through waivers and then start him in AAA?

[Trov]

A whole lot to unpack in this article.  It really is 2 articles, if not more, in 1.  First, the who will get DFA.  Of the 9 listed, I believe Stevenson will be higher up on the list than the writer thinks.  He is not young, only made the MLB roster as a defense and base stealing gun.  Unless you think you will want him to actually play meaningful innings in outfield you do not keep him on the roster.  My guess he gets DFA along with Luplow.  De Leon I also agree is out the door.  Those 3 free up enough room to get the locks of E-Rod, Martin, Carmango and Servrino, all locks, and room to add 1 more, unless they want to sit at 39 for awhile, like having room to draft in rule 5. 

The next is who else should get added to 40 man, and who would you cut.  It is much easier to expose someone to rule 5 draft than DFA.  The reason is the rules on how they move on.  Position players are rarely taken in rule 5, unless they are near MLB players, or taken by clearly rebuilding teams that will take poor play for a year.  That could make Sabato or Salas, but not that likely.  Oliver will not get taken by anyone, unless they really believe in him because he would be making the jump from A ball and 22.  

The remaining on the list are all guys that would be more likely to be taken.  Laweryson the most likely he is typical type that gets taken in rule 5, a pen arm that if you like his stuff enough could be stashed in the pen.  Twins will need to decide do they like him or another pitcher on the list for DFA.  Keeping in mind the DFA does not have to be on 40 man roster if they pass waivers and become FA.  If they do get taken off waivers, then just need to be on 40 man but can be in minors, if they have options. 

Keirsey, Prato, Helman, and Williams all would be options to take in a rule 5.  They are of age and experience that jump to MLB will not be too big for them.  None will be huge losses though for us.  None are super high prospects and outside of Williams they all seem to play similar rolls.  The question for the Twins is who do they value more, any of them or who they would need to cut, and compare that to how likely will you lose them?  I would say Balazovic would get snatched up quickly on waivers.  Much quicker than any team would take the reaming possible rule 5 guys.  Would anyone really be that upset to lose any of the remaining guys to rule 5?  The only way any of them really see time next year with Twins is if we have several injuries. 

[Brandon]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The definition of big is obviously subjective. 

Big Lake Minnesota is on the shores of Big Lake. Somebody named it Big Lake so somebody at one time thought it actually was a BIG Lake... hence the chosen name.  

However, if you look at the numbers and compare those size numbers with other lakes in Minnesota. Big lake ain't that Big in comparison.   😉

The Dodgers SS Rojas had a .612 OPS last season for a 66 OPS+. Kyle Farmer had a .719 OPS and 97 OPS +. That is a pretty significant difference in OPS.  
 

Miami’s SS had a .554 OPS which is an even bigger Lake Superior size difference on offense.  
 

Cleveland traded their SS and none of the IF or SS replacements hit above .661 last season most were below .620.  Again that is a Lake Erie size difference offensively.

that is 3 teams that Farmer would be a huge upgrade offensively.  I’m sure there is another one or two in the same boat if I looked.  I mean the Whitesox for example.  
 

Who is the stop gap SS for the Rays if Wander Isn’t around anymore?  And at his price the Rays can afford him.
 

The Dodgers or Marlins may want more offense.  Especially the Marlins and they have to compete to get Farmer from us or sign one of the SS above.  Who else has surplus SS to trade? Also keep in mind Farmer will be paid around 7 million which is way below his actual value.  So a team on a budget like the Marlins could trade for him and probably extend him.  

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Dodgers SS Rojas had a .612 OPS last season for a 66 OPS+. Kyle Farmer had a .719 OPS and 97 OPS +. That is a pretty significant difference in OPS.  
 

Miami’s SS had a .554 OPS which is an even bigger Lake Superior size difference on offense.  
 

Cleveland traded their SS and none of the IF or SS replacements hit above .661 last season most were below .620.  Again that is a Lake Erie size difference offensively.

that is 3 teams that Farmer would be a huge upgrade offensively.  I’m sure there is another one or two in the same boat if I looked.  I mean the Whitesox for example.  
 

Who is the stop gap SS for the Rays if Wander Isn’t around anymore?  And at his price the Rays can afford him.
 

The Dodgers or Marlins may want more offense.  Especially the Marlins and they have to compete to get Farmer from us or sign one of the SS above.  Who else has surplus SS to trade? Also keep in mind Farmer will be paid around 7 million which is way below his actual value.  So a team on a budget like the Marlins could trade for him and probably extend him.  

The Dodgers have SS's like Farmer coming out of their ears.  Kiki Hernandez had a .731 OPS... traded for at the deadline. Chris Taylor had a .746... Mookie Betts also played SS and he had 1 Million OPS and that list doesn't include Gavin Lux who was going to be the starting SS before he got hurt and will be back next year. Are you sure about Farmer to LA?  

Cleveland did trade their SS at the deadline. To the Dodgers. Amed Rosario was the 2nd player acquired at the deadline who could play SS. He produced .709 OPS for the Dodgers before being left off the playoff roster because they had a lot of SS's. Including Rojas who has always been a no hit superb fielding SS that the Dodgers purposely acquired from the Marlins that you mention so they had a backup for Lux. It cost them a real good SS prospect named Jacob Amaya who is currently 25 years old and the 6th rated prospect in the Marlins system. Xavier Edwards is also in the Marlins system and ranked #7... not to mention Garrett Hampson with his .729 OPS for 222 AB's and not to mention Jon Berti who is the same age as Farmer had a 749 OPS and can take a base on ya.

Back to Cleveland... Maybe... I could see them having some interest in Farmer but I believe it's quite possible that in will be all about that Rocchio kid in Cleveland. I certainly don't think they will offer tons to acquire Farmer for that mentor role. 

The Rays... Maybe... But I see them having a lot more creativity when they approach the SS position. Right now they have about 6 players on the current roster who can man the SS position on any given night.  

I won't argue that Farmer is better than Wendle or that Farmer hits better than Rojas. But, in the end... you have a 33 year old with a 96 OPS+ about to paid 6.5 million in his last year of arbitration. Teams will not be sending big packages over to the Twins to acquire him. 

[Danchat]

Luplow, Stevenson, Gordon, and De Leon are basically guarantees to be DFA'd. Ortega is a near lock, as he can likely be retained on a MILB deal. Henriquez had a really bad year and can probably be snuck through waivers. Moran is also not good and Funderburk seems to have passed him up on the lefty reliever foodchain, so he's a pretty easy DFA too. Sands and Winder were disappointing but they should both get another year. Alcala is in a weird spot as he's so rarely been healthy, but he's still got 3 options so I think he sticks. Balazovic should get another crack at it too, though having no options left is a problem.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

The Dodgers have SS's like Farmer coming out of their ears.  Kiki Hernandez had a .731 OPS... traded for at the deadline. Chris Taylor had a .746... Mookie Betts also played SS and he had 1 Million OPS and that list doesn't include Gavin Lux who was going to be the starting SS before he got hurt and will be back next year. Are you sure about Farmer to LA?  

Cleveland did trade their SS at the deadline. To the Dodgers. Amed Rosario was the 2nd player acquired at the deadline who could play SS. He produced .709 OPS for the Dodgers before being left off the playoff roster because they had a lot of SS's. Including Rojas who has always been a no hit superb fielding SS that the Dodgers purposely acquired from the Marlins that you mention so they had a backup for Lux. It cost them a real good SS prospect named Jacob Amaya who is currently 25 years old and the 6th rated prospect in the Marlins system. Xavier Edwards is also in the Marlins system and ranked #7... not to mention Garrett Hampson with his .729 OPS for 222 AB's and not to mention Jon Berti who is the same age as Farmer had a 749 OPS and can take a base on ya.

Back to Cleveland... Maybe... I could see them having some interest in Farmer but I believe it's quite possible that in will be all about that Rocchio kid in Cleveland. I certainly don't think they will offer tons to acquire Farmer for that mentor role. 

The Rays... Maybe... But I see them having a lot more creativity when they approach the SS position. Right now they have about 6 players on the current roster who can man the SS position on any given night.  

I won't argue that Farmer is better than Wendle or that Farmer hits better than Rojas. But, in the end... you have a 33 year old with a 96 OPS+ about to paid 6.5 million in his last year of arbitration. Teams will not be sending big packages over to the Twins to acquire him. 

If these teams have all of these options then why didn’t they use them.  I do think he is worth significantly more because there is a shift in the market due to lack of availability.  It only takes one team to offer a good enough prospect.  6.5 million for an average hitting and a slightly above average fielding SS who is good for 1.5-2 WAR is worth more than 6.5 million.  So you and I can agree to disagree for now and we will see what kind of return we get for him.  With what your saying I wouldn’t trade him unless budget was an issue as he would be more valuable to us in that case.

[SwainZag]

I think Balazovic for another season, but he really needs to work in the offseason.  He has decent stuff, but he really needs to work on his out pitch.  He throws way too many pitches by wasting them.  I still think there is hope, but the clock is ticking.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

If these teams have all of these options then why didn’t they use them.  I do think he is worth significantly more because there is a shift in the market due to lack of availability.  It only takes one team to offer a good enough prospect.  6.5 million for an average hitting and a slightly above average fielding SS who is good for 1.5-2 WAR is worth more than 6.5 million.  So you and I can agree to disagree for now and we will see what kind of return we get for him.  With what your saying I wouldn’t trade him unless budget was an issue as he would be more valuable to us in that case.

Uncle.

I just got into this discussion to point out that there isn't that BIG of a difference between Kyle Farmer and others who can man the SS position. You and I will agree to disagree.

I will refer you back to the Jorgenswest post earlier in this thread. His posts are always rooted in solid logic. The SS landscape is fluid... More young SS's will be showing up next year.  

I don't want to spend any more time sounding like I'm disparaging Farmer which I would have to do in order to continue this conversation. He doesn't deserve that. I am happy he was a Twin.

Besides this discussion is about Balozovic. 

 

[Brandon]

The first 2 Domino’s have fallen for DeLeon and Stevenson.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/twins-outright-andrew-stevenson-jose-de-leon.html

[jorgenswest]

On 10/19/2023 at 3:32 PM, Brandon said:

Kyle Farmer had a .719 OPS and 97 OPS +.

Do you think teams are going to ignore that skew in OPS given that he spent much of the year as a platoon player?

In 2022 as a regular he had 165 extra plate appearances against right handed pitching and only 25 extra plate appearances against lefties. He hits lefties much better than righties. If you adjust the 2022 ratio of plate appearances to that of 2023 his OPS+ for 2022 would have been 106. I think the Twins saw that and hoped to get that level of platoon production but he didn’t dominate lefties as he had in 2022. Going the other direction if you take his 2023 numbers and scale them to that of a regular, his OPS+ is 93 and virtually the same as it was in 2022. Much of his WAR comes from his at bats against lefties.

I don’t think any contender would view him as an every day SS. I do think he is valuable to the Twins in a platoon/bench even with some decline. I don’t think he has very much value in excess of his arb 3 contract though. I would be really surprised if teams would give up a significant prospect. I do think getting a return of a similarly salaried 1-1.5 WAR veteran is possible. I do think a prospect like Balazovic (out of options) or Headrick (getting old and needs a 40 spot) is possible.

While we disagree about the potential return, we both hope you are proved correct.

[Brandon]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think teams are going to ignore that skew in OPS given that he spent much of the year as a platoon player?

In 2022 as a regular he had 165 extra plate appearances against right handed pitching and only 25 extra plate appearances against lefties. He hits lefties much better than righties. If you adjust the 2022 ratio of plate appearances to that of 2023 his OPS+ for 2022 would have been 106. I think the Twins saw that and hoped to get that level of platoon production but he didn’t dominate lefties as he had in 2022. Going the other direction if you take his 2023 numbers and scale them to that of a regular, his OPS+ is 93 and virtually the same as it was in 2022. Much of his WAR comes from his at bats against lefties.

I don’t think any contender would view him as an every day SS. I do think he is valuable to the Twins in a platoon/bench even with some decline. I don’t think he has very much value in excess of his arb 3 contract though. I would be really surprised if teams would give up a significant prospect. I do think getting a return of a similarly salaried 1-1.5 WAR veteran is possible. I do think a prospect like Balazovic (out of options) or Headrick (getting old and needs a 40 spot) is possible.

While we disagree about the potential return, we both hope you are proved correct.

The ability to get a better return depends on who else is better that is available.  All I am seeing is Farmer is the best available.  And by a wide enough of a margin that it will artificially boost his value.  With that I think we could push for a better prospect if there are more than 1 team trying to upgrade SS.  I would think someone like Festa or Rosario would be a comparable ceiling and I think the Twins could do better the Headrick as Farmer is solid both offensively and defensively.  If Headrick is what’s available, we should just hold on to him.  We are in a competitive window and unless the budget mandates a salary dump we don’t need to trade him.  I could be wrong but I just don’t see how the Twins give him up for less and how out of several teams who need to upgrade at SS that not one of them pays up to get him.  Again I could be wrong and it will be fun to see what the end result will be.

[Brandon]

Someone should start a multi choice poll of what they see Farmer’s trade value to be and attach some prospect examples to the choices.  It will be a fun exercise.  We can see how well we can gauge the market.

[Linus]

On 10/19/2023 at 1:24 PM, jorgenswest said:

He is out of options. Would you make him the number 5 starter? Would you DFA him in hopes of getting him through waivers and then start him in AAA?

This is the crux of the issue. At best he would be one of the relievers that get churned back and forth to St Paul. Since he is out of options you would have to outright him then. So you might as well do it now and let him have one last crack in St Paul if he clears waivers. If he doesn’t I wouldn’t bat an eye. He’s eminently replaceable.