Twins Playoff Roster: Bullpen

[Cody Christie]

Relief pitching takes on even more importance in October when a game's outcome can tip on one pitch. Here is how the Twins’ bullpen stacks up heading into the playoffs.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Successful teams in October rely on shutdown bullpen arms in the late innings of tight games. Minnesota's last playoff win came in 2004, with Joe Nathan earning the save at a time when he was considered one of the game's best closers. Flash-forward nearly two decades, and the team's bullpen is built around another dominant closer. Can the other relievers bridge the gap between the starters and the final innings?

Minnesota's postseason roster will include changes from one round to the next if the team can win its best-of-three Wild Card Series. Rosters can include 26 players for the playoffs, so the club will likely utilize 15 position players and 11 pitchers for the first round. Three pitchers will be the scheduled starters, leaving eight spots open for bullpen arms. 

Closer: Jhoan Duran
Duran has been one of baseball's best relievers over the last two seasons, ranking third among AL relievers in WPA since the start of 2022. He began the 2022 season well before a rough patch in July and August that saw his ERA rise from below 2.00 to nearly 3.00. Since August 4th, the Twins have focused on giving Duran more regular rest, significantly impacting his overall performance. 

In 16 games (16 2/3 innings), he has allowed two earned runs with a 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding batters to a .551 OPS. His lone blemish in recent games was the team's division-clinching win, but he said his nerves impacted his performance that night. In the playoffs, the Twins have some questions to answer about how they use Duran. How can he perform in back-to-back appearances? Will the Twins use him for more than one inning? Duran can be a playoff weapon, especially if the team finds a way to keep him fresh. 

Set-Up: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar
Jax has earned a high-leverage role from the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons. However, there have been some up-and-down moments with his performance in 2023, including May, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.59. Bad luck has been mixed into his overall performance, as his ERA is nearly 70 points higher than his FIP. The Twins will ask Jax to get some critical outs in October, and the hope is that the dominant version of Jax will appear that night. 

Thielbar has saved the Twins bullpen in recent years after being on the brink of retirement. He's worked with Driveline in recent offseasons to move his fastball velocity from 89.8 mph to 93.0 mph during the 2023 season. He's added a sweeper that has limited batters to a .222 SLG, and his curveball generates whiffs over 30% of the time. As a southpaw, he has dominated against left-handed batters this year by holding them to a .356 OPS in over 45 plate appearances. The Twins can't use him strictly against lefties in the playoffs, so seeing how he is deployed will be interesting.    

Middle Relief: Emilio Pagan, Louie Varland
Many fans were ready for the Twins to DFA Pagan earlier this season, but he's settled into one of the team's most reliable arms. His 3.17 ERA is the third lowest of his career and his lowest mark since the 2019 season. Pagan ranks third among Twins relievers in fWAR behind Duran and Jax. Pagan will be asked to get essential outs in the middle innings in the playoffs, and that's a scenario few would have imagined. 

Varland has only made a limited number of relief appearances after shifting to the role recently. However, he has been electric out of the bullpen with a triple-digit fastball and an improved cutter that can be a weapon against righties and lefties, including a 46% Swing%. His relief appearances haven't been perfect, but the Twins will need him to have a successful October. 

Injury Enforcements: Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack
Stewart was one of the Twins' best relievers during the 2023 season before an arm injury forced him to the IL. There have been some setbacks along the way, but his most recent rehab saw his velocity in the high 90s, so there is hope he can help the postseason bullpen. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins added him to the bullpen mix last weekend. He got a lot of swings and misses during his rehab appearances, including hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball. There is potential for him to be a bullpen weapon in October that other teams need to prepare to face. 

Shifting Starters: Kenta Maeda, Dallas Keuchel
Maeda has a solid argument to be the team's number-three starter in the postseason, but Joe Ryan is also in the conversation. Before joining the Twins, Maeda was used by the Dodgers in a relief role for multiple postseason runs. The current version of Maeda is very different from the dominant postseason arm. Keuchel has made multiple relief appearances for the Twins, but he's been used in a piggyback role, which isn't optimal for October. It isn't likely for Keuchel to see time on the mound in October unless there are some injuries. 

Rookie Wild Card: Kody Funderburk
Funderburk has been one of the organization's best relief prospects over the last two seasons. The Twins waited until late in the season to give him his first taste of the big leagues, so it will be interesting to see if he gets an opportunity in October. 

Break Glass In Case of Emergency: Dylan Floro, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick, Cole Sands
Something went wrong if the team asked any of these players to pitch significant innings in October. Injuries can always play a factor, but most of this group has moved up and down from Triple-A throughout the season. 

Minnesota's front office bet on the arms in the organization by not making a trade for relief help at the deadline. That faith will result in the best version of the club's bullpen so far this year, and it's happening at the perfect time. How do you feel the bullpen stacks up entering October? Do you have faith in the group covering the late innings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[In My La Z boy]

Great summary. I'll be most interested to see if we add a 2nd lefty versus another power righty. I do like the way the bullpen is shaping up never forgetting how the Royals did it in '15. That was a shutdown bullpen. 

[KBJ1]

Stewart, Paddock & Varland are a Hugh boost to the pen.

With a fully healthy offense (a big IF) this team could be poised for a deep run!

[Rosterman]

The Twins pen is looking pretty darn good. ALl about the needs of a lefty arm against which other team.

I want to know who styarts Game 4. Ober?

[JD-TWINS]

I might take the option of 2nd lefty & guy with many more innings this year in Funderburk over Paddack.

PEN: Jax - Pagan - Thielbar - Funderburk - Duran - Varland - Stewart - Maeda…….5 guys that throw 97 plus. Really, this is as good of a bullpen that one could draw up within any organization!

Maeda & Varland have middle relief under control in the short series, Paddack probably not needed.

Assuming we move on from WC and we play another round (4th game) ………it’s possible we only play 2 games in first round…….Ryan opens 2nd round on a Saturday & then back to Lopez & Gray for Sunday & Tuesday. Ober on Wednesday of 2nd series. Ryan or Maeda along with all hands on deck for game 5, if needed. Probably Maeda on the road, if he’s fresh.

If we go 3 games first round & advance, Ober opens the 2nd series on Saturday.

[terrydactyls]

37 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Stewart, Paddock & Varland are a Hugh boost to the pen.

With a fully healthy offense (a big IF) this team could be poised for a deep run!

Is Hugh Boost a new addition to the Twins?

[terrydactyls]

35 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

"ALl about the needs of a lefty arm against which other team."

Huh?

[terrydactyls]

Just after the trade deadline, a lot of people were calling for the front office to be fired.  To me, this bullpen is better than one they could've built by losing more assets.  Kudos to the men in charge.

[Kenny Powers]

I agree with the assessment of the writer.  My only addition would be Alcala.  He's another flame thrower with a decent track record.  I think he's healthy.  His rehab stats at AAA:  7 innings, 7 Ks.  1.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  I understand the hesitation to rely on these guys coming back from injury, but it's nice to have him as depth in case something happens.

I really like that they built this pen vs. trying to trade for guys like last year.  There is risk in trading and there are risks in doing nothing.  But I like this bullpen on paper and am excited to see what they can do in the playoffs.

[Karbo]

What about Ober in the 1st round? The way I see the pen is Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Varland, Pagan, Ober, Maeda, & Funderburk.  If they make it through then I would sub either Maeda or Ober whichever one starts, and put Paddack in their place. Then sit a position player.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm 100% with JD-Twins on the bullpen choices.  We have 8 slots total.  The Twins SHOULD carry 15 hitters/position players for better flexibility to pinch hit/pinch run/late game defense situations.

Lopez, Gray and Ryan are your SP.  Ober is your #4.  There is no need for Keuchel anywhere on this post season roster.

Duran-Closer   They have to decide if he's capable of closing games in back to back nights and he's got to gain confidence in his "splinker" again.  But he's the best arm we have, and there are times I say to myself "just throw it 100 mph down the middle and dare that guy to hit it Duran!!"  

Varland and Stewart 7th & 8th inning guys.  Stewart has been awesome this year.  His ERA is 0.38 !!  He looked great last night.  Varland is terrifying coming out of the pen.  His future is as a SP and I hope Matt Canterino is destined to be that 8th inning guy next season, but Varland throwing 100 mph out of the pen in the 7th or 8th inning is something to behold.

Jax needs a shorter leash but if they don't run him into the ground can still be highly effective.  With all this added depth for the post season, Jax should not get over-worked and his breaking ball should have that late bite that makes him so tough. 

Theilbar and Funderburk.  They need BOTH of these lefty's.  Theilbar is reliable.  I've liked what I've seen of Funderburk.

Pagan has really turned things around.  He belongs and I can't believe I'm saying this, but can actually be counted on in a high leverage situation if it's early in the game (5th or 6th inning).

Maeda-He's got a good track record in the post-season.  I'd actually like to see him piggy back Ryan in game #3.  Ryan gets the first 4-5 innings.  Maeda the next two. 

That leaves Paddock off the roster.  As nice as it was to see him throw in the mid to upper 90's last night, If it comes down to him and Funderburk, I'll take the lefty and throws mid 90's. 

The BIG thing for me is that I want to see Stewart and Varland in those 7th and 8th inning high leverage situations instead of Pagan and Jax.  Go with the young guys that throw GAS.  The Twins are on the verge of becoming one of the youngest teams in MLB next season.  This post season is where it's time to unleash the young guns.    

[BsuNemo]

I don't trust Ryan as a game three - must win - starter.  I'd rather have the vet Maeda start that game and Ryan start game one of the next series if we get there.

[John Belinski]

Steward looked good last night and we can have him pitch at least two more games before playoffs so will know if he can be effective.

[jccracraft]

I don't understand why Ober is not in the mix for the 3rd start. He's been overall better and more consistent than Ryan or Maeda. In any case, he should be on the roster for sure.

Floro is already gone. Keuchel should also be. I'd keep the Funderburk despite his inexperience, as well as Paddock.

[Road trip]

I'll second comments choosing Funderburk over Paddack, especially if we draw the lefty-heavy Astros (Alvarez, Tucker, and Brantley) or Rangers (need a spare lefty for Seager).  The Mariners don't have many scary left handers, nor do the Jays... so maybe you consider leaving Funderburk off the roster if either of them are the opponent. 

I'd really want to see two good appearances from Paddack before adding him.  As nice as it was to see him throw hard last night, the 2nd inning was a pretty rough.  Too many pitches down the middle that got hit very hard.

[jorgenswest]

All 8 teams took at least 12 pitchers to the wild card round last year. Some took 13. I think there might be more value in the flexibility of the 9 man pen than a roster spot for Stevenson.

Taking both Paddack and Funderburk has to be a consideration. That game 3 might turn into a bullpen game with some arms already having pitched in game 1 and 2.

[LA Vikes Fan]

There's basically 5 guys for 2 spots. I guess the real choice is do you take Paddack and Funderburk or one of those two and either roster Buxton as a bench bat/DH, roster Luplow as a RH pinch hitter/starter against LH pitching, or keep Stevenson on the roster for defense and base running. It's a tough choice. I think it really depends on 2 things. Can Lewis recover quickly enough to be the playoff 3B or will he need to DH? If he's the playoff 3B I tend to say let's keep the extra roster spot for a bat like Buxton or Luplow, or for Stevenson's speed and flexibility. If he needs to DH, Buxton stays home for sure.  Second, Is Paddack really ready to pitch in meaningful game situations? We know he can light up the radar gun but last night showed that he has to also hit spots. He did one inning, he didn't in the second inning. No reason to roster him if you have to afraid of when to pitch him. 

I think you roster Funderburk regardless to give you the second lefty. If Lewis can go in the field, roster Buxton if he's healthy. If not roster Paddack, Luplow or Stevenson. If Lewis needs to DH, the more likely result, roster Paddack if he has two better appearances than last night before the season ends. If not, roster Stevenson. I think his combo of defense and speed is more important than Luplow's ability to be a decent bat against LH pitching,  

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Is Hugh Boost a new addition to the Twins?

Hugh is (Bjorn) Borg.

[Craig Arko]

20 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Hugh is (Bjorn) Borg.

He shall be assimilated. Resistance is futile.

[Brandon]

It might be overkill, but I can see the Twins adding 12 pitchers for the post season.  Our bullpen would be that dominant that a 15-inning game will not wear out the pen for the next game.  I could be wrong, but the pitching is our strength this post season we need to dominate with it.  

Also check out this article on mlbtraderumors.com regarding our pen for the playoffs.  The Twins' Bullpen Is In Good Shape For The Postseason - MLB Trade Rumors

[ToddlerHarmon]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

All 8 teams took at least 12 pitchers to the wild card round last year. Some took 13. I think there might be more value in the flexibility of the 9 man pen than a roster spot for Stevenson.

Or MLB front offices approach life like frightened rabbits, and worry about 17-inning Game 1s or something.

You are correct that the Twins' frightened rabbits will probably put 12 pitchers on the playoff roster.

[jorgenswest]

45 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Or MLB front offices approach life like frightened rabbits, and worry about 17-inning Game 1s or something.

You are correct that the Twins' frightened rabbits will probably put 12 pitchers on the playoff roster.

I guess I have a little more respect for the front offices if the 8 teams that played in the wild card last year.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, jccracraft said:

I don't understand why Ober is not in the mix for the 3rd start. He's been overall better and more consistent than Ryan or Maeda. In any case, he should be on the roster for sure.

Floro is already gone. Keuchel should also be. I'd keep the Funderburk despite his inexperience, as well as Paddock.

I think Keuchel is around for Sunday. I'm guessing he'll get the start, followed by a couple innings from another pitcher that won't be on the Wild Card roster. Or else Keuchel gets Saturday, with a short start from Ober on Sunday in anticipation of the following Friday.  

[Logi_Clevs]

I don't understand the need for all of this conversation and debate when in reality Pablo and Gray will throw back-to-back complete game shutouts!! 

[LewFordLives]

I don't think Paddock has shown enough to be on the playoffs roster. He showed some encouraging signs yesterday, but he did give up three runs to a really bad lineup. Also, do the Twins want to risk him overdoing it just coming off elbow surgery? He's a part of their plans going forward. Why risk it if he hasn't proven he can be a difference maker at this point in the season.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I don't think Paddock has shown enough to be on the playoffs roster. He showed some encouraging signs yesterday, but he did give up three runs to a really bad lineup. Also, do the Twins want to risk him overdoing it just coming off elbow surgery? He's a part of their plans going forward. Why risk it if he hasn't proven he can be a difference maker at this point in the season.

I didn’t see it, but it sounded like he was lights out the first inning and not so much in the second. I could easily imagine him being amped up for the inning to the point that he was bound for a letdown. 

After throwing last night, I’m guessing he’s on the docket for an inning or two on Thursday or Friday, so we’ll see how that goes  

 

[Linus]

At this point I would have Stewart as a primary set up go over Jax. Also Floro has been dfad which doesn’t lend credibility to the article. 

[Fatbat]

12 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm 100% with JD-Twins on the bullpen choices.  We have 8 slots total.  The Twins SHOULD carry 15 hitters/position players for better flexibility to pinch hit/pinch run/late game defense situations.

Lopez, Gray and Ryan are your SP.  Ober is your #4.  There is no need for Keuchel anywhere on this post season roster.

Duran-Closer   They have to decide if he's capable of closing games in back to back nights and he's got to gain confidence in his "splinker" again.  But he's the best arm we have, and there are times I say to myself "just throw it 100 mph down the middle and dare that guy to hit it Duran!!"  

Varland and Stewart 7th & 8th inning guys.  Stewart has been awesome this year.  His ERA is 0.38 !!  He looked great last night.  Varland is terrifying coming out of the pen.  His future is as a SP and I hope Matt Canterino is destined to be that 8th inning guy next season, but Varland throwing 100 mph out of the pen in the 7th or 8th inning is something to behold.

Jax needs a shorter leash but if they don't run him into the ground can still be highly effective.  With all this added depth for the post season, Jax should not get over-worked and his breaking ball should have that late bite that makes him so tough. 

Theilbar and Funderburk.  They need BOTH of these lefty's.  Theilbar is reliable.  I've liked what I've seen of Funderburk.

Pagan has really turned things around.  He belongs and I can't believe I'm saying this, but can actually be counted on in a high leverage situation if it's early in the game (5th or 6th inning).

Maeda-He's got a good track record in the post-season.  I'd actually like to see him piggy back Ryan in game #3.  Ryan gets the first 4-5 innings.  Maeda the next two. 

That leaves Paddock off the roster.  As nice as it was to see him throw in the mid to upper 90's last night, If it comes down to him and Funderburk, I'll take the lefty and throws mid 90's. 

The BIG thing for me is that I want to see Stewart and Varland in those 7th and 8th inning high leverage situations instead of Pagan and Jax.  Go with the young guys that throw GAS.  The Twins are on the verge of becoming one of the youngest teams in MLB next season.  This post season is where it's time to unleash the young guns.    

Paddack will be on the roster. Doubt they will roster less than 12 pitchers. 

[akmanak]

I agree with a bunch of the comments on here but I don't agree with keeping Jax in this bullpen.  Imo he is the biggest liability and shouldn't be called upon in any close situations. 

Other than that I think this is one of the better pitching staffs going into the playoffs that the Twins have had in 20 years. 

[wabene]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

It might be overkill, but I can see the Twins adding 12 pitchers for the post season.  Our bullpen would be that dominant that a 15-inning game will not wear out the pen for the next game.  I could be wrong, but the pitching is our strength this post season we need to dominate with it.  

Also check out this article on mlbtraderumors.com regarding our pen for the playoffs.  The Twins' Bullpen Is In Good Shape For The Postseason - MLB Trade Rumors

It's funny reading the article you can tell the author hasn't spent much time watching the Twins and didn't consider last year. He just looked at the numbers. He lists our top relievers as Duran then Pagan. The overall tone is optimistic which may be warranted, hopefully!