Is King Kenta a 2024 Contributor?

[Cody Pirkl]

Kenta Maeda is turning back the clock since being activated from the IL in late June. Soon to be 36, it’s fair to wonder how long it’ll last. Could he pitch well enough down the stretch to become a part of the 2024 plans?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

Kenta Maeda is turning back the clock since being activated from the IL in late June. Soon to be 36, it's fair to wonder how long it'll last. Could he pitch well enough down the stretch to become a part of the 2024 plans?

In his last year under team control with the Twins, it seemed evident in the offseason and early on that Kenta Maeda was likely in his final season with the Twins. Given how he's looked since being truly healthy, it's becoming fair to wonder whether he could change the Twins' plans.

Through his first four starts since Tommy John surgery, Maeda threw 16 innings and allowed 16 runs. His 19.2% strikeout rate was concerning, and he looked the part of a 35-year-old coming off of a significant injury. The velocity was down even as a pitcher who was never known for his heater, and the command needed to be improved. It appeared to be a deadly combination.

Many believed Maeda's IL trip following his 3-inning, 10-earned-run performance against the Yankees on April 26 was the end of the line. It was a fair assumption, given his age, health, and the Twins' ability to plug in Louie Varland for the remainder of the season. Maeda changed their plans.

Since June 23, when the Twins activated Maeda from the IL, he's been a different pitcher. In his 53.2 innings, he's posted a 2.68 ERA and a dominant 32.2% strikeout rate. His fastball velocity has trended consistently month by month, beginning at 89.5 in April and peaking at 91.4 in August. His fastball was 91.8 in his Cy Young runner-up 2020 season.

Speaking of 2020, his current stretch should be meaningfully compared to that dominant short season. Those 66 innings were enough to elevate Maeda's status in the eyes of many, which is why the 53-plus innings he's thrown on his current dominant stretch shouldn't considered as a small sample. His strikeout rate is almost identical, with the only real difference being a few more walks and being on pace to allow one more homer. Maeda has rediscovered the form that made him a Cy Young runner-up.

The argument, of course, is how long he can keep it up, given his major injury in 2021 and his three years older than that electric shortened season. We can debate how long Maeda can keep this up, but the real debate will happen internally in the Twins front office. 

If Maeda continues anywhere near his current performance, it would be hard not to consider bringing him back in some facet in 2024. A qualifying offer would be surprising, given all the listed concerns and the low innings count he's sure to accrue. That being said, Sonny Gray is sure to depart this offseason. The Twins will still have a rotation, including Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, but they'll likely pursue at least one more veteran starter, as we've seen in years past. 

The hope is Joe Ryan returns to form down the stretch, but that remains to be seen after the home run issues exploded on him before hitting the IL. Bailey Ober has an injury history of his own. The hope is for Chris Paddack to return to the rotation, but that's still to be determined. Louie Varland deserves a shot, but the Twins chose to go with Maeda over him when healthy earlier this season, and it's paid off. 

Maeda could be the perfect fit for a 2024 Twins rotation, with many pitchers riding the fence. If he finishes strong, the plan could be to bring him back as an Opening Day rotation member. 

It's hard to envision Maeda being a workhorse at 36, and even IL trips for maintenance would create opportunities for younger arms to get their feet wet. If things derail completely in the rotation, he has relief experience the Twins could again try to harness. Maeda would be a better veteran option than the Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy tier they've dipped into in years past. A big multi-year deal is unlikely at his age, but the Twins could get creative with options or incentives, which Maeda is no stranger to in his MLB career.

Maeda is happy in Minnesota, and even with a strong finish, he shouldn't break the bank if he and the Twins agree on a reunion. He may be a near-perfect fit for a 2024 Twins rotation that should have plenty of youth and upside. If Maeda continues his dominance, should the Twins prioritize him this offseason?

 

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[junior8791]

I 100% agree, what is market value? One year with a mutual option? 7-10 mil??

[roger]

100% agree, Cody, that the Twins need to bring back or sign one solid starter.  That would put Varland and Paddock in a battle for #5/#6.  

Agree it is unlikely Gray isn't back, but it would be smart for the Twins to do a QO to get the high draft pick.  Can clearly see the Twins being very interested in signing Maeda to an extension.  Question will be how much and how long.  Wouldn't surprise me if they do it shortly before the end of the season.

[2wins87]

I would guess that starting next year the rotation would be something like: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Someone, Paddack.  Varland would be in Ober's position waiting in the wings in AAA, and Paddack sort of in Maeda's situation where we're not sure what we're going to get.

As a 3rd or 4th starter in that rotation Maeda definitely fits.  I don't think they should really want to go more than year to year with him, and he might look for one last multi-year contract at whatever AAV he can get.

They could also aim for more of a #2 to try to replace Sonny Gray.  Maeda's current performance does fit, but I don't think anyone will be counting on him to maintain quite this level for another year.  I doubt they will be competing for one of the few top free-agents, so there might be someone they could get in a trade, but I'm not sure who that pitcher would be right now.

 

[terrydactyls]

Two years for $20M total.  And throw in some reliever-based incentives like successful holds, saves, etc.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Twins will not be able to replace Gray's numbers next year, he is basically a top 4 SP right now.

I have always thought Maeda would be a great extension candidate.  One year with and option or two would be ideal, but it might take a 2 year deal to keep him.  No contract incentives so the Twins would be able to move him to wherever he is needed without any hurt feelings.

[Patzky]

I think he absolutely needs to be a consideration as part of the starting rotation. Paddack and Varland are wild card in the mix.. even if Kenta comes back, the team will likely still look for a top tier pitcher. Nola? Snell?

[Jocko87]

28 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Two years for $20M total.  And throw in some reliever-based incentives like successful holds, saves, etc.

If you are comfortable committing that much money just make the QO.  I’m actually in on the QO for Maeda, I’d be comfortable with the one year risk.  Starting pitching is generally worth it. 

[Dman]

First let me say I really admire Kenta and the fact he bet on himself with an incentive laden contract.  He knew teams felt the arm was an issue and he was willing to share the risk if something went wrong.  I like who he is as a teammate.  He seems thoughtful and reserved and I admire those traits.  I would like to see him remain a Twin.

If he continues to pitch like he has been to end the year and or even slides just a little but doesn't tank I think with the numbers he has It would 15M to 20M per year to sign him.  His 32%K rate with a 1.17 WHIP and as mentioned in the article sub 3.00 ERA since he wasn't quite built all the way back up puts him in pretty elite company.  I get that he doesn't have great velocity and is old which comes with risk but given what teams have been willing to invest in pitchers like Rich Hill, Verlander, Sherzer etc. odds are he gets at least a two year deal and I wouldn't be surprised if he managed 2 years with a 3rd year option and fairly high buyout. Maybe he would go for a QO on a one year deal?  Seems unlikely as this might be his last big pay day and he would want to maximize years and dollars.

The question I have is does he like it in Minnesota?  He seems like someone that might like the West Coast better.  When he had his chance to choose it was LA.  I don't know if he even wants to stay with Minnesota so that might play into it as well.

If he continues to pitch well the Twins would be wise to bring him back but if they can't they should at least QO him.  He might not bring back a sup first rounder but would bring back something if he left.  If they can keep him they know who they are getting and that he fits in the club house.  As stated in the article Gray is gone and Paddack is no sure thing.  Ober and Ryan look OK if they can avoid injury.  Varland has been up and down all year there isn't much behind Louie as Headrick hasn't been as good after the half way mark.   If they can get Kenta to come back they should do it.

[Peter]

Need to sign Kenta to extension!!! And why not bring sonny back as well talk him into extension as well? We have good pitching waiting in wings. Can’t wait to see paddock in rotation as well SWR!!!! What about our pick with Soto? He’s going to be stud future cy young winner. Any chance of him coming up? 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, junior8791 said:

I 100% agree, what is market value? One year with a mutual option? 7-10 mil??

On a 1 year deal you will need a lot more than $7M. That's relief pitcher money.

Tyler Anderson signed for 3 years $39M, Jose Quintana 2 years $26M and Nate Eovaldi 2 years $34M. Syndergaard 1 year $13M. Clevinger 1 year $12M. The 1 year $10M Kluber, Gibson and Boyd received is the absolute floor if his market collapses.

Pretty much any starting pitcher you actually want to have in your rotation is worth a qualifying offer.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Peter said:

What about our pick with Soto? He’s going to be stud future cy young winner. Any chance of him coming up? 

They don't have to add Charlee Soto to the roster until before the 2028 season. That's the earliest you should expect to see him in the rotation.

[gman]

I think 2 years/25mil with 2 additional mutually option years at similar rates. Will he be close to 40 at the end , sure. But with mutual option kinda of a no lose option.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd make the QO and see what happens. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Two years for $20M total.  And throw in some reliever-based incentives like successful holds, saves, etc.

Love this and love the idea of one year $7-10m with a second year option, but I don't think either gets it done. I think Maeda has more value than that on the market, particularly since his old team - the Dodgers - will be looking for a veteran back end starter next year. I think it's more like 2 guaranteed years at somewhere between $11-14m a year, maybe 2024 a little more and 2025 a little less. Something like 2 years, $22-25m with 60% in 2024, 40% in 2025 so he can transition to the bullpen in 25 if we don't need him as a starter.  I would do this in a heartbeat if he's healthy. 

Hope they re-sign Maeda. Gray is gone next year and Paddack is a real question mark coming off his second TJ surgery. The track record for guys with 2 TJs isn't any where near as good as it is for guys with one. Next year's starting pitching group then would be  Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Maeda, and Paddack or Varland with the other in AAA as #6. Still a strong group with some depth. Hope SWR and/or Festa or Raya can step up to the #7 and #8 spots. Use the FA money on bullpen help and RH hitting 4th OF who can play a better than average CF. 

[Mike Sixel]

He's not settling for the kind of money a decent RP gets.....no chance. 

[JesusisLord7]

I would sign him. He fits in well, his contract would be reasonable and he could also pitch out of the bullpen like he did in LA. Maeda does not walk hitters and is dependable. 

[Road trip]

I'd like to see him back.  I have far more confidence in Maeda (old/sometimes injured/but usually effective) than I do in Paddack (young/historically marginal starter/recovering from 2nd TJ surgery).  The team has a chance to be quite good next year, so keep investing in pitching.  We'll need some depth.

 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

If you are comfortable committing that much money just make the QO.  I’m actually in on the QO for Maeda, I’d be comfortable with the one year risk.  Starting pitching is generally worth it. 

A QO would be twice as much money.  That's a lot for a 36 year old #2 or #3 starter.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

A QO would be twice as much money.  That's a lot for a 36 year old #2 or #3 starter.

If he's a number 2 ,it's a pittance. If he's a 3, it's likely under what he'd get in FA.....the issue is if he's more of a 4 or if he's hurt. But I'd take that chance on a 1 year deal.

[Karbo]

I'd go 2yrs 15 mil per. I have a hunch they will also try to bring back Mahle similar to how they handled Pineda.

[Dman]

13 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'd go 2yrs 15 mil per. I have a hunch they will also try to bring back Mahle similar to how they handled Pineda.

Yeah if he goes for that the Twins would have a tough time finding a better arm for less money.  If that isn't enough I would go with a third year option of 15 to 20M with a 5M buyout.  That way if they don't want him after the second year there is an easy out and it turns the 15M to 17.5 for those two years.  This would all be contingent on his current numbers holding up to the end of the season as of right now his numbers say he is a top of the rotation pitcher. Anything under 20M for a top of the rotation arm is a bargain.  Hard to say if he would go for that or not but it would be a place to start.  Odds are unless he "really" likes the Twins he shops the FA market though.

[Trov]

I would look to bring him back on a 1 to 2 year deal.  I believe we have a few young guys that could step up if needed, and overall we have had some good health this year, outside the full missed season of one planned starter, we have not had many stints on IL.  However, if those pile up we need as much depth as possible. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's a number 2 ,it's a pittance. If he's a 3, it's likely under what he'd get in FA.....the issue is if he's more of a 4 or if he's hurt. But I'd take that chance on a 1 year deal.

I think Maeda is a solid #4, Plus #5, but not a #3 or higher on a competitive team. He doesn't pitch enough innings adn he's not consistent enough to be a #3 or higher.  He's in the $12-15m a year range.  Sonny Gray is like Chris Bassit last year. Bassit got 3 years $63m, for his age 34-36 season. Gray is 33. Gray can probably get something like that so the QO makes perfect sense. If he takes it, you're paying him roughly market without the long commitment. If he doesn't you avoid the commitment to guy on his last contract. 

Maeda is 35. He's much closer to the 35 year old Kyle Gibson who got a one year $10m contract in the last off season. This year, Gibson is 13-7, 4.89 ERA/3.84 FIP.  Salaries do tend to go up year to year though, and I actually think Maeda is a little better bet than Gibson. I think Maeda could and will get 2 guaranteed years, but not 3. My guess is 2 years, $22-25M but I might be a little low. I could see a team giving him 2 years, up to $30m. Still a lot less than a 1 year $20m plus contract on the QO. I think Gray gets the QO and rejects it, and I think Maeda goes for 2 years guaranteed at $25m or a little less.  I would make those deals if I were the Twins. 

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I'd go 2yrs 15 mil per. I have a hunch they will also try to bring back Mahle similar to how they handled Pineda.

Pay him whatever he wants.  In pro sports, money is theoretical anyway.

[karcherd]

At what point do you give a chance to Varland, he will be 26 at the beginning of the season next year.  At some point the pitching pipeline has to start producing or we will be going thru this revolving door every year.  Paddack was not very good except for one year and is coming off the second TJ surgery.  Put him in the bullpen,  And let's open some spots for the young pitching to join the rotation.

[Dman]

16 minutes ago, karcherd said:

At what point do you give a chance to Varland, he will be 26 at the beginning of the season next year.  At some point the pitching pipeline has to start producing or we will be going thru this revolving door every year.  Paddack was not very good except for one year and is coming off the second TJ surgery.  Put him in the bullpen,  And let's open some spots for the young pitching to join the rotation.

There is a decent chance that Paddack's arm doesn't hold up or doesn't do well to start the season like Maeda.  Varland can step in there and you need some depth for injuries.  Also Louie has had trouble getting guys out at AAA this year. He hasn't been as consistent as years past.  Not sure they can "rely" on him through a full season yet.  He will get chances but he has to perform on a consistent basis to stay on the MLB level.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, karcherd said:

At what point do you give a chance to Varland, he will be 26 at the beginning of the season next year.  At some point the pitching pipeline has to start producing or we will be going thru this revolving door every year.  Paddack was not very good except for one year and is coming off the second TJ surgery.  Put him in the bullpen,  And let's open some spots for the young pitching to join the rotation.

If the Twins thought Varland was better than we we currently had, he would be up on the big team.  He has not been blowing people away this year at any level.

[karcherd]

21 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If the Twins thought Varland was better than we we currently had, he would be up on the big team.  He has not been blowing people away this year at any level.

At what point are they going to break the cycle of not using their prospects that they are supposed to be developing.  You can't continually try to turn the staff over from the outside.  At some point you have to give them a chance.  Varland has shown some potential and sometimes they are not lights out right away but that is part of the learning process.  Are we waiting for them to show a sub 2 era before we bring them up, this is similar to keeping Wallner down earlier this year.  As an aside I saw Varland the other night in Omaha and he didn't look bad despite the results.  They were using the ABS for that game and I do wonder if that is impacting the pitchers.  They don't use every game and there were borderline pitches being correctly called balls but a lot of umpires would be calling strikes.  I do wonder what kind of adjustment this is for the pitchers.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, karcherd said:

At what point do you give a chance to Varland, he will be 26 at the beginning of the season next year.  At some point the pitching pipeline has to start producing or we will be going thru this revolving door every year.  Paddack was not very good except for one year and is coming off the second TJ surgery.  Put him in the bullpen,  And let's open some spots for the young pitching to join the rotation.

When he has earned the spot, not one game before.