Is King Kenta a 2024 Contributor?

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, Varland is on the roster if you let Gray go.... So I'm not sure what that has to do with Maeda? Unless you think they are bringing in another starter

[DocBauer]

I liked what I saw of Paddack after the Twins acquired him and tweaked his approach. Hopefully he comes back 100%, but it's not guaranteed. And even if he does, how quickly does his "feel" for his pitches come back?

Varland looked really solid in his 2022 debut, with a pair of games in Yankee stadium IIRC. His ERA was lower this season, while maintaining his K rate, right up until his final 3 starts when the wheels suddenly came off. I like his future. But why not 6 arms to start the season, like this year, instead of 5? I mean, you're going to need 7 or 8 before the season is done.

I love watching Maeda pitch. He's a craftsman. And his rebuilt arm looks to have some good life left in it. Still, he's not getting any younger and we don't know for sure how he will hold up up for an entire season. So I don't think we're talking a $20M deal. I'm thinking somewhere around $14-15M per for 2yrs. I'd love a 1 and 1 with a buyout, but I think demand will be high enough that it will take a guaranteed 2yrs.

I don't know who becomes #7,8,or 9, but I like our first 6, especially if we finally deepen the pen. 

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I liked what I saw of Paddack after the Twins acquired him and tweaked his approach. Hopefully he comes back 100%, but it's not guaranteed. And even if he does, how quickly does his "feel" for his pitches come back?

Varland looked really solid in his 2022 debut, with a pair of games in Yankee stadium IIRC. His ERA was lower this season, while maintaining his K rate, right up until his final 3 starts when the wheels suddenly came off. I like his future. But why not 6 arms to start the season, like this year, instead of 5? I mean, you're going to need 7 or 8 before the season is done.

I love watching Maeda pitch. He's a craftsman. And his rebuilt arm looks to have some good life left in it. Still, he's not getting any younger and we don't know for sure how he will hold up up for an entire season. So I don't think we're talking a $20M deal. I'm thinking somewhere around $14-15M per for 2yrs. I'd love a 1 and 1 with a buyout, but I think demand will be high enough that it will take a guaranteed 2yrs.

I don't know who becomes #7,8,or 9, but I like our first 6, especially if we finally deepen the pen. 

Paddack starting facing live hitters on roughly 8/16.  It seems feasible he could he be ready for 2 inning relief appearances but will he be sharp enough to put on a playoff roster?   

Stewart threw a 15 pitch BP session today.  Maybe there is hope for him.

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If the Twins thought Varland was better than we we currently had, he would be up on the big team.  He has not been blowing people away this year at any level.

To be fair, what the Twins have had in 2023 has been as good as I have ever seen for a Twins pitching rotation. Varland has the talent to pitch in the major leagues and if he isn't good enough for the rotation next year there is plenty of room in the bullpen.

[TopGunn#22]

I think LA Vikes has accurately pegged the value of Maeda.  I think he COULD have a spot, but I'm not getting into a bidding war for a 36 year old, oft injured-needs time off for "maintenance" pitcher whose future is in the BP and not the starting rotation.  He's certainly more Kyle Gibson than Max Scherzer.  Someone else had the idea of incentives like holds and saves being built into a contract offer.  I like that.  He's not your prototypical 8th inning 100 mph power pitcher, but he could certainly stabilize the back end of our BP there.  I see his future in the BP not the rotation.  

[Twins33]

I’d offer 2/26 and hope he takes it. He’s usually steady and I like that. 
 

No one in AAA has done anything to impress me. Varland was good in AAA last year, but wasn’t good in MLB. This year he’s not good at either. He’s trending towards a BP arm for me. 

[IndianaTwin]

Remember all the offseason angst about Ober being slotted at No. 6? And how a lot of us said, he'll get a chance when injuries arise? 

I think the Twins showed this year how they would like to approach their rotation. Start with six guys with at least some level off success, so that when you have an early season injury, you won't have to immediately dip into your AAA guys.

In most years, you'll also use your No. 7, 8, 9 and more. This year they've had amazing health, only using eight starters (plus a game when DeLeon was an opener), so there hasn't been as much dipping into AAA as usual, but that makes this year the exception. 

At this point, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack are four of those six. I don't think the Twins see Varland as one of those. He well may be their No. 7, good enough to assume that they'll use him, but not good enough to want to have to count on him.

So they'll sign or trade for two. First up is offering Gray the QO, assuming he'll decline. I'd love to sign him to several years, but he's got Cincinnati written all over him. Past history there, Nashville native, gobs of young talent and little financial commitment.

At this point, and assuming he keeps rolling, I seriously consider offering Maeda the QO. If you don't, 2 years at $20M isn't going to get it done to sign him. He's going to get two or maybe three years if he wants it. So offer him the $20M QO. Or perhaps $17M with a $3M team option for 2025 at $15M. That guarantees him the $20M, but could turn into 2/$35M, which is probably richer than he can get.

And then still sign or trade for someone else.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

To be fair, what the Twins have had in 2023 has been as good as I have ever seen for a Twins pitching rotation. Varland has the talent to pitch in the major leagues and if he isn't good enough for the rotation next year there is plenty of room in the bullpen.

This is the actual crux of the argument against pushing up the pitching prospects.  If the Twins go out this offseason and re-sign two of Gray, Maeda, and Keuchel, the rotation is theoretically set. (Yes, like it or not, do not write off Keuchel just yet)

Personally, I can really only see Maeda back, but the way contracts have gone in MN over the last few years, nothing would surprise.

I think if Varland looks ready, but not able to crack the 2024 rotation, he would be moved.  Quality SP are always in short supply, BP guys can be found on the cheap every off-season. 

[junior8791]

I like most of those ideas .  Just out of curiosit, who is his agent?

[JD-TWINS]

Liked the last comment on Varland…..we don’t NEED to give him a chance, he needs to prove he deserves a chance. Being a good guy - being from MN doesn’t matter. Nobody handed Ober a spot - that’s for sure.

Maeda is worth a 2 year deal for $25M -$28M if he finishes well in ‘23. I like the “mutual option” for ‘25. He’s been making a base of $3.1M for 8 years……along with incentives that could earn him another $2.5 - $5M if he was healthy, based on innings and # of starts. He needs to be paid. He seems to like our team - we’ve treated him well & even though he’s 35, he has a rebuilt arm and he gets guys out. Basically, we would extend him for less than what we would be paying Mahle.

Mahle - Gray gone, that’s $25-27M saved…….if Maeda is making $5.5M this year it would be a decent raise at his age to $12.5M

Take some of the other $ left and try to add some depth to the Pen - just one guy with a track record……doesn’t have to be a star…….. just a 65 inning/yr guy with ERA under 3.80. Use some of other balance of $ to tie up Jax & Duran.