The Twins' 2023 Trade Deadline Was a Far Bigger Disaster Than 2022

[Nick Nelson]

At the 2022 trade deadline, the Twins front office evaluated their needs honestly, and acted decisively based on the information they had available. Regardless of the outcome, I commend their approach.

The opposite is true of this year's downright negligent handling of the trade deadline. We are already seeing the cost, and it threatens to be far greater than a few lost prospects.

Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

With the benefit of hindsight, no one would say Minnesota's big trades at the deadline last year worked out. If they could go back and do it all over again, knowing what they know now, the front office certainly would not have traded away a bunch of prospects for Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez.

But you know what? They didn't have the benefit of hindsight when they made those moves. All they had was the information available in real-time, which was this: The Twins were in first place in a winnable division, and they had some clear flaws that they needed to address if they were going to make a real run at the thing.

Last July, those needs were pretty significant. They needed a credible frontline starter to plug in alongside Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, and a high-caliber reliever to complement Jhoan Duran in the late innings.

The Twins swung big. They gave up decent prospect packages to acquire Mahle and Lopez all along with extra years of service for both. 

The front office knew the risk factors attached to both players -- Mahle's injury concerns and Lopez's unconvincing long-term track record -- but didn't know both would come fully to fruition. The front office also couldn't have guessed that even if both pickups played exactly up to optimistic expectations, it wouldn't have mattered because the entire roster collapsed in an injury epidemic. 

All the Twins front office knew at the time was where they were at and what they needed. They acted accordingly. The last takeaway you'd want the club to draw from this experience is that risks aren't worth taking. After all, some of this regime's greatest and most impactful moves have been the payoffs of bold risk-taking, for example:

• Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda.
• Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top draft pick Chase Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray.
• Trading their reigning batting champ Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez.

Those moves led us to where the Twins are at today, with an elite rotation featuring three playoff-caliber starters. And for some reason, upon reaching this long-awaited moment they've been building toward, the front office passed up the opportunity to provide much-needed help for that unit and the rest of this team as it aims to reach the postseason and snap a 20-year curse.

The team's needs at this past deadline were lesser in scale, but no less clearly evident. They needed bullpen help -- ideally a high-leverage arm, but even middle relief depth would help. Injuries to Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala, combined with Jorge Lopez proving unusably bad, left the team's planned late-inning core severely lacking, in need of support. 

Adding one or two relatively trusted relief arms of the Michael Fulmer ilk would've done worlds for this unit's depth and stability. The cost for such assets would've been vastly less than a Mahle or Lopez haul. It was, seemingly, a pretty simple assignment.

Alas, the Twins front office failed it. Aside from a swap of struggling relievers that brought in Dylan Floro, they sat on their hands. And the negligence of this approach is only growing more apparent and upsetting as the exact scenario they were supposed to be protecting against plays out before our eyes.

Minnesota's bullpen has fallen apart since the trade deadline. Over the past 20 days they've collectively been sub-replacement level with a -0.2 fWAR that ranks 26th in the majors. The have a 6.13 ERA during this span, compared to 3.01 for the starters. 

The relief corps completely melted down in Milwaukee over the past two days, blowing mid-game leads in both losses. Floro was at the head of the struggles with a nightmare outing on Tuesday. Now the Twins head into a four-game series against the Rangers in a beleaguered state, with Duran having thrown 33 pitches in taking the loss Wednesday.

I'm not trying to oversimplify things here, by suggesting that one or two reliever additions at the deadline were going to definitively change the course of this bullpen. Maybe the acquisitions wouldn't work out; we've been there. Maybe they wouldn't have made enough difference; if Duran and other late-inning arms can't get on track, there will be no saving this bullpen.

But to not even try? To not even add a single impact reliever who might reduce your reliance on Emilio Pagan to succeed in high leverage, or Caleb Thielbar to stay healthy, or Jax and Duran to not get run into the ground?

It's truly one of the most baffling things I've ever seen. And if the Twins fall short in the playoffs, AGAIN, because they are one quality relief arm short ... or worse yet, miss the playoffs entirely because their bullpen isn't equipped for the task of holding up down the stretch ... it'll be tough to forgive this bizarrely complacent lapse from a front office that uncharacteristically played scared this time around.

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[Vanimal46]

 

Congrats Nick! You are the hawt taek artist. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

23 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Congrats Nick! You are the hawt taek artist. 

No way, luke warm take, at best. Probably closer to tepid

[Blyleven2011]

I concur they were definitely gun shy at this years deadline and didn't want to make poor choices 2 years in a row  ...

The past off season proved again that they made a poor choice and didn't add any quality bullpen arms by way of free agency  ...

 

[old nurse]

Fair enough assessment of the bullpen. Considering what was traded, do you dive up Rays and another top prospect for Sewell. Hicks went for decent prospects, Graveman went for decent prospects. It is all fine and Danny to want bullpen arms but the rest that were traded don’t seem to be all that different from what the Twins have. 

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

No way, luke warm take, at best. Probably closer to tepid

In 2022, we traded a reliever to Baltimore who turned into an all star the next season + 2 other prospects for a reliever we traded away in a “lateral move” 1 year later. We traded a good bat who’s contributing this season (2.1 bWAR/1.4 fWAR) to an NL wild card team and CES who’s knocking at the door for a pitcher who threw 42 innings in his 1.5 years of control. 

This is a scorching hawt taek. 

[Nick Nelson]

11 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

No way, luke warm take, at best. Probably closer to tepid

This is fair. I was gonna go with an actual hot take headline like "Actually the 2022 Deadline Was Good" but it felt like a bridge too far lol

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

Agree they should have done something at the deadline, but not sure its as bad as it seems? It's easy to pick on the bullpen right now, but they can't all be perfect every outing. Floro was a bit unlucky last night too. These things happen and I fully expect the pen to be fully capable through the last month of the season and into the post.

[HokieRif]

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

In 2022, we traded a reliever to Baltimore who turned into an all star the next season + 2 other prospects for a reliever we traded away in a “lateral move” 1 year later. We traded a good bat who’s contributing this season (2.1 bWAR/1.4 fWAR) to an NL wild card team and CES who’s knocking at the door for a pitcher who threw 42 innings in his 1.5 years of control. 

This is a scorching hawt taek. 

Hindsight is 20/20. What prospects are doing this year is not a fair way to grade a trade.

https://www.ballysports.com/north/news/minnesota-twins-2022-mlb-trade-deadline-grades-mahle-fulmer-lopez
 

This was published 8/3/22, and offered several writers grades on trades and the Twins’ deadline as a whole. Lots of As and Bs and Twins won the deadline.

[terrydactyls]

Since the trade deadline, Michael Fulmer has an ERA of 6.48, a WHIP of 1.20, and opponents are hitting .242.   How much better is that?

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Hindsight is 20/20. What prospects are doing this year is not a fair way to grade a trade.

https://www.ballysports.com/north/news/minnesota-twins-2022-mlb-trade-deadline-grades-mahle-fulmer-lopez
 

This was published 8/3/22, and offered several writers grades on trades and the Twins’ deadline as a whole. Lots of As and Bs and Twins won the deadline.

Okay. This article was published today. Nick Nelson had the immense power of hindsight like I did and still wrote this rubbish. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What I am not a fan of is using Duran for 2 innings. Duran has said himself he doesn’t like going out for a second inning of relief.

I think you give Duran one inning and then take your chances. Those types of guys get all wound up for one big inning of whup-ass, pardon my french, and then they’re spent. They either finish in the handshake line or they come in and sit and cool all the way down. Hard for them to warm back up, and in Duran’s case, he has said as much. Postseason, sure. But not games like today. That’s not how those guys are built. Also, Duran is only a couple years removed from serious shoulder issue. It’s just not worth it to me, to chase a single win on the arm of your by far best reliever when all the other teams were sellers at the deadline. I know that sounds kind of backwards, that’s where we’re at. Just my opinion.

[Nick Nelson]

49 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Okay. This article was published today. Nick Nelson had the immense power of hindsight like I did and still wrote this rubbish. 

Yes because the whole point is to take hindsight out of it and evaluate the decisions based on how they were made at the time. Did you think they were horrible trades at the time? If so I'm sure it's documented here since you're a very regular commenter. Let's see it.

Maybe the Twins will win the World Series this year in spite of doing nothing at the deadline. It was still bad decision-making, bad process. 

[Nick Nelson]

52 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Since the trade deadline, Michael Fulmer has an ERA of 6.48, a WHIP of 1.20, and opponents are hitting .242.   How much better is that?

Well I was referring more to acquiring him last year as the example to follow – he was a little better at that point, and there were plenty like him on this year's market.

But yes, I would feel better about the outlook for the bullpen with Fulmer in it as opposed to without him. That's kinda why I'm so bewildered, it would not have taken much to satisfy the minimum need here. There cupboard is just empty. You wouldn't take Fulmer over Winder/Sands/Ortega/Balazovic?

[Vanimal46]

21 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Yes because the whole point is to take hindsight out of it and evaluate the decisions based on how they were made at the time. Did you think they were horrible trades at the time? If so I'm sure it's documented here since you're a very regular commenter. Let's see it.

Maybe the Twins will win the World Series this year in spite of doing nothing at the deadline. It was still bad decision-making, bad process. 

My advice, take it or leave it - take some time off from watching this team. Your recent articles are bottom feeder compared to what you’re capable of. 

Edit: Just know I’m saying this out of respect. You know this. I’ve been reading your work for years and have met you in person. This is rubbish. Truly. 

[annismark]

• There wasn't a lot out there at the trade deadline this year.   We would have had to overpay for arms that may not be materially better than the ones we have.  Or they could be worse. 
  • they wouldn't have made a material difference in our post-season chances.  We have too many holes in our flawed team.
• the evaluations of the trades last year at the time of the trade were overly optimistic.  We overpaid for arms that were not better than the ones we had.  You (we) all were trying to make ourselves feel good about our post-season chances (though I'll remind myself I hated the Mahle trade from day one)
  • they wouldn't have made a material difference in our post-season chances.  We have too many holes in our flawed team.
• the front office has had a bunch of opportunities to upgrade the bullpen in the off season and throughout the year.  They've failed at pretty much every turn--maybe because this year they made at least 3, maybe 4 free agent hitter acquisitions that were very expensive for the mediocre to horrible results.

[TwinkieFan4life]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Hindsight is 20/20. What prospects are doing this year is not a fair way to grade a trade.

https://www.ballysports.com/north/news/minnesota-twins-2022-mlb-trade-deadline-grades-mahle-fulmer-lopez
 

This was published 8/3/22, and offered several writers grades on trades and the Twins’ deadline as a whole. Lots of As and Bs and Twins won the deadline.

I agree if we are talking about prospects that are in A ball coming up 2 years later and breaking out.  

These players were contributors on playoff teams MONTHS later.  The writers grading these trades are irrelevant and know little about the players being moved relative to the teams making the deal.  The hitters that were moved had broken out already and the Twins should have known what they had.  

[SotaSports in NM]

To me the lack of attention to the bullpen was far more egregious in the off-season than at the trade deadline. There weren't realistic, clear upgrades available without significantly overpaying (except for maybe David Robertson). It was nearly just as obvious in the off-season that we needed significant BP help. And it wouldn't have taken any prospects to do it. Andrew Chafing, Seth Lugo & others would have been nice and reasonable additions. It blew my mind that we paid great attention to depth everywhere EXCEPT the bullpen.

[mnfireman]

Making a trade just for the sake of making a trade is bad business.

The biggest disappointments are; in-game decision making, daily line-ups/get away day line-ups and poor execution of fundamentals by the players. Bullpen blow ups happen, but become more frequent with misuse. 

 

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

My advice, take it or leave it - take some time off from watching this team. Your recent articles are bottom feeder compared to what you’re capable of. 

Edit: Just know I’m saying this out of respect. You know this. I’ve been reading your work for years and have met you in person. This is rubbish. Truly. 

Your advice is noted and dismissed but thanks anyway Van. Do you actually have a point to make or anything interesting to say? Or are you just going to keep objecting to nothing in particular?

[Nick Nelson]

53 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Making a trade just for the sake of making a trade is bad business.

The biggest disappointments are; in-game decision making, daily line-ups/get away day line-ups and poor execution of fundamentals by the players. Bullpen blow ups happen, but become more frequent with misuse. 

 

Your opinion is that trying to upgrade the middle relief on this contending team would be trading for the sake of it? No real need there? 

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Well I was referring more to acquiring him last year as the example to follow – he was a little better at that point, and there were plenty like him on this year's market.

But yes, I would feel better about the outlook for the bullpen with Fulmer in it as opposed to without him. That's kinda why I'm so bewildered, it would not have taken much to satisfy the minimum need here. There cupboard is just empty. You wouldn't take Fulmer over Winder/Sands/Ortega/Balazovic?

How is trading for relief pitchers that have higher than average ERAs and blown saves galore improving the bullpen?  They got Fulmer, who was having a good year last year, for not much. There was no Fulmer like pitcher traded this year.. So the choice was top reliever for top prospects, or a reliever not having a good year., or do nothing.  The last choice was the option you railed against. So the second question is do you move top prospects for rentals?

[mike8791]

Terrific article, Nick.  The 2022 deadline trades were exactly what was needed at the time.  At least the FO recognized the gaping holes and made some dramatic moves to increase their odds of making the post-season.  The fact these moves backfired was certainly unfortunate, but trying and failing is far better than sitting on your hands.  Which brings us to 2023.

I have said in previous posts that the FO's failure both in the offseason and trade deadline not to augment a very shaky pen was a firable offense.  Several closer-types were available as FA.  Lesser arms, but improvements nonetheless were available mid-season, yet this smug FO did nothing, even though the pen was decimated by injuries(Stewart, Thielbar), refused to see Jax's uneven performance with runners on base, realized Duran was a shadow of his first half self, and had failed to produce one reliever in their 7 years capable of consistently shutting down a team in the late innings.  Just this year we have seen guys like Winder, Sands, Ortega, Balozavic, et. al., fail miserably as fill-ins.

I am truly amazed at the refusal of TD fans not to understand how badly this FO has failed the team and its fans!  Let's hope Joe P has more guts than Jim had and fire these clowns.

[rv78]

This FO has made many mistakes. Last years trade deadline acquisitions were mistakes. Failing to bring in bullpen help during the off-season was another mistake. Signing Gallo to the tune of $11M was an epic mistake. I hesitate but will say it, signing Correa and extending Buxton were 2 more mistakes. Giving Rocco an extension, big mistake. We are faced with a team that strikes out at epic proportions due to their philosophy of swing hard, pull the ball, and the K's won't hurt you. The rotation is suppose to be the strength of the team but has become hit and miss at best with all 5 guys imploding with too much frequency to be taken seriously. Now Rocco is back to his 5 innings and your done to try to protect them which will only compound the bullpen problems even more. If you can stand to watch them, they are about as exciting as watching paint dry. 

[Riverbrian]

Buyers Buy and Sellers Sell

Doing neither is standing still. 

We were buyers who did not buy. 

I wanted offensive help... Nick wanted Bullpen help. The difference doesn't matter to me. Neither areas were addressed.

The Twins rolled right past the last chance to improve the team with outside help.

 

Last year... they were buyers who bought. 

They did what they were supposed to do. 

I agree with the article. 

This year was worse. 

[Matt Braun]

I suppose I’d just like to know what bolstering this very obviously flawed team would accomplish. It’s clear Correa isn’t going to hit this year, and the odds of Byron playing center are impossibly low. Throw in a catastrophic strikeout problem, and no one or two players were going to make *that* much of a difference. Maybe they could have gotten an extra reliever, but I’m not going to lose sleep over it. 

[MABB1959]

I wanted a big bat so they can sit underperforming players regardless of their names.  The young ones doing well are fighting for a place in the line up.  Others with "secure" positions in the line-up seem to be horrible.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

Fair enough assessment of the bullpen. Considering what was traded, do you dive up Rays and another top prospect for Sewell. Hicks went for decent prospects, Graveman went for decent prospects. It is all fine and Danny to want bullpen arms but the rest that were traded don’t seem to be all that different from what the Twins have. 

As much as we all would have liked an extra arm or two in the bullpen, there really wasn't that much out there at the trading deadline that looked particularly enticing, or affordable. I think keeping our prospects was the right move. As others have noted, the time to make an addition was in the off-season. By the time July came around that opportunity wasn't so realistic. 

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I suppose I’d just like to know what bolstering this very obviously flawed team would accomplish

It would bolster it.