The Twins' 2023 Trade Deadline Was a Far Bigger Disaster Than 2022

[Dman]

The way the pen has been playing out I don't think another arm at the deadline was going to make a difference.  Like all year one arm has a bad night almost every night and it dooms the team. It can be Jax, Pagan, Duran, Balazovich, etc. it doesn't seem to matter but someone has an off night and there goes the ball game.  

Given what I have seen so far they either need to figure out why the pen arms can't execute or find ways to better mix and match pitches to be less predicable.  There are way too many "holes" in this pen for even one or two arms at the deadline to make a difference.

[LastOnePicked]

11 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

This was published 8/3/22, and offered several writers grades on trades and the Twins’ deadline as a whole. Lots of As and Bs and Twins won the deadline.

Isn't it entirely possible that grading trades right when they happen is actually the flawed approach, and not the other way around? I think this is a philosophical difference I have with many baseball writers.

The Twins 2022 trade deadline was a disaster of epic proportions. There's no need to sugarcoat it. I understand Nick's point - "better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all" - but it's possible that sellers were asking way too much for too little return.

If we want to get mad about the construction of this bullpen (and we should, I agree), that focus should go squarely on last offseason.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

The fact these moves backfired was certainly unfortunate, but trying and failing is far better than sitting on your hands.

Only, here's the thing: those moves last year have led directly to this year's problems. What did Lopez cost us this year? What could Cano have meant to this bullpen? Wouldn't Steer and CES have made for either A) upgrade bats over Gallo or B) very strong trade chips for this year's deadline?

So, sitting on their hands last year would have been a far better deadline strategy. Last years moves caused this year's deficits.

[DJL44]

I am still not sure why a number of veteran relievers on bad teams are still on those teams. Why is Suter still on the Rockies? Why did the Mets keep Brooks Raley? Usually you will see losing teams dump players to open a spot for the young guys and drop some salary.

This deadline got weird when the Angels made the very risky move to go all-in. I can't imagine if this was Angels Daily, it would be unbearable here.

[Matt Braun]

36 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It would bolster it. 

I stand corrected 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

I suppose I’d just like to know what bolstering this very obviously flawed team would accomplish. 

It would make them better, which would give them a better chance to make/advance in the playoffs?  

[Ricky Vaughn]

I have no insight into the front office workings, however I have an idea. Is it possible they were told no net increase in payroll. I'm not calling the Pohlads cheap here, but why would they approve an increase in payroll for an under performing team.  Attendance is down, and they are performing much like last year without the same number of injuries. Doing nothing is not like this front office so this is the only thing that makes any sense to me, and if its right I can't really blame the Pohlads.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

The way the pen has been playing out I don't think another arm at the deadline was going to make a difference. 

Replacing a bad pitcher with a better one won't make a difference?  

Man, some of these responses are head scratchers.  

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I have no insight into the front office workings, however I have an idea. Is it possible they were told no net increase in payroll. I'm not calling the Pohlads cheap here, but why would they approve an increase in payroll for an under performing team.  Attendance is down, and they are performing much like last year without the same number of injuries. Doing nothing is not like this front office so this is the only thing that makes any sense to me, and if its right I can't really blame the Pohlads.

They're also at their highest payroll ever. 

But most of the targets they'd have been after just don't cost much. And FTR, average attendance is actually up around 1700 per game over last year. Not at 2019 levels, but then recovering from 2020 has been slow for most every team.

Dunno, but your thought is at least worth considering. 

[Woof Bronzer]

For those suggesting it wasn't worth making moves at the deadline this year....

Let's say the Twins make the playoffs.  We all know the FO/Rocco are going to go the early hook route, so Gray/Lopez are going 5 tops.  That means 12 outs from the bullpen, 2 nights in a row.  Who's getting those 24 high leverage outs for us?

If I recall correctly, the Mariners closer was dealt for peanuts.  

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Replacing a bad pitcher with a better one won't make a difference?  

Man, some of these responses are head scratchers.  

My point is they all have been bad and just because you acquire someone doesn't mean they will be better just like last year.  Yep always a chance things work out great or better than expected  but when Duran and Jax who have just blown up games recently aren't getting it done what difference does it really make if you added one more arm that may help for one inning?  it isn't going to move the needle unless most of the rest of the pen does the job and they haven't been.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

We keep hearing why didn't they try . . .  who is to say they didn't try?  Whose to say the cost for the Twins would have been higher than either deals completed or not completed for a variety of reasons.  We all admit its a flawed team,  no reason to dump a bunch of resources on this year.  However they can still catch lightning in a bottle.  The arm talent is there.  For the playoffs you can move 1-2 arms from starts to relief corps.  If Ryan comes back strong Maeda is the obvious pick to move.  He has fizzled enough that likely won't get any compensation for him.  They can move another arm, as well as add someone like Funderburk.   

This season was successful as an organization for a couple reasons.  You have found and locked in an Ace.  Yes it cost Arraez, but it was well worth the cost.  You are starting to have more younger bats coming up and we will watch to see the cream rise to the top.   Some will fail, some will exceed.  You need more options, and that is the one thing the Twins have. They have tons of options,  even if not highly rated.  Correa has had a tougher season but I still like the contract and think he will be a great player A for the rest of the season B for rest of his contract.  I think he just needs a little more protection.   

I do think we need to let our best bats hit, and avoid the platoon as much as we are.   Oh well still looking forward towards the post season, and still keeping and eye on the Tigers.  

We are building a foundation.  I really think we will have a very solid team for the next 3-5 years and at that time they may begin to put more resources into the bullpen as a final touch.  

[Woof Bronzer]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

My point is they all have been bad and just because you acquire someone doesn't mean they will be better just like last year.  Yep always a chance things work out great or better than expected  but when Duran and Jax who have just blown up games recently aren't getting it done what difference does it really make if you added one more arm that may help for one inning?  it isn't going to move the needle unless most of the rest of the pen does the job and they haven't been.

I mean, I think a guy who we can count on for 1 inning would be huge.  We barely have any of those guys right now.

My bigger point is, for how crappy the team has played this year they will likely be in the playoffs, with the best rotation we've had in a while.  Weird things happen in the playoffs.  Let's actually try to win!  This franchise has won ONE playoff series in 3 decades, we don't have the luxury of punting on playoff appearances.  

[D.C Twins]

11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

My advice, take it or leave it - take some time off from watching this team. Your recent articles are bottom feeder compared to what you’re capable of. 

Edit: Just know I’m saying this out of respect. You know this. I’ve been reading your work for years and have met you in person. This is rubbish. Truly. 

All right fess up.... who pissed in Vanimal's cheerios this morning.... own up and apologize!

[Dman]

8 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I mean, I think a guy who we can count on for 1 inning would be huge.  We barely have any of those guys right now.

My bigger point is, for how crappy the team has played this year they will likely be in the playoffs, with the best rotation we've had in a while.  Weird things happen in the playoffs.  Let's actually try to win!  This franchise has won ONE playoff series in 3 decades, we don't have the luxury of punting on playoff appearances.  

For playoffs I don't disagree but I am starting to question if they will make it given how poorly the pen has been doing recently.  They could get swept by Texas then they play Cleveland whose rotation is just as good and pen better than ours and we have a tough time with the Guardians in General and those are our next 12 games or so.  If they don't find some wins there things are going to get tough right quick.

Also I don't know if the Tigers are for real but if they keep plugging away they play the Yankee's who don't look that good right now a bunch and then they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way just like the Twins.  If they reel us in things look tough again.

If this team doesn't get its act together soon they won't make the playoffs.

[farmerguychris]

I think we set our pen up to fail when we intentionally didn't do anything before the season even started.  

I actually (in hindsight) feel better about doing nothing this year than losing who we did last year.  I think very few of us feel good about a long post season run in 2023 - might as well keep our mediocre farm system as it is instead of investing in expiring contracts that would also not likely put us in any better shape to be true contenders - while our prospects may be able to do that at some point in the future.

[Woof Bronzer]

21 minutes ago, Dman said:

If this team doesn't get its act together soon they won't make the playoffs.

Very much true.

[jorgenswest]

There are four relievers listed in MLBs top 23 deadline trades. Since they were moved it is fair to believe the Twins could have made a better offer and won the deal. I was interested to know how they were performing with their new clubs as well as what it might take to win the deal.

They could have acquired Jordan Hicks, David Robertson, Scott Barlow or Paul Sewald by beating the offer of the other team.

.Could the Twins have avoided disaster by adding one of the 4? What would it take? I looked at the deals in the Twins Forum.

 

[Battle ur tail off]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

In 2022, we traded a reliever to Baltimore who turned into an all star the next season + 2 other prospects for a reliever we traded away in a “lateral move” 1 year later. We traded a good bat who’s contributing this season (2.1 bWAR/1.4 fWAR) to an NL wild card team and CES who’s knocking at the door for a pitcher who threw 42 innings in his 1.5 years of control. 

This is a scorching hawt taek. 

You're right on. His post sounds crazy to me. We get fleeced last season and basically nothing to show for it and this year, yes they didn't do much but we also didn't give up someone like Austin Martin, etc to try and find lightning in the bottle or gamble on another injured guy with lots of upside. 

Where I think the Twins are rippable with their bullpen this year is their inability to address anything in it prior to the season starting and then being unwilling to give up on guys like Sands, Gallo, etc in order to try someone new from AAA. Or being flexible or trying something new. Varland might be effective in the pen or move him into the rotation, Maeda in the pen, etc. Try something different. Games in which we only get 5 from our starters are mainly losses as we only have a few truly "trustable" BP arms.

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

For those suggesting it wasn't worth making moves at the deadline this year....

Let's say the Twins make the playoffs.  We all know the FO/Rocco are going to go the early hook route, so Gray/Lopez are going 5 tops.  That means 12 outs from the bullpen, 2 nights in a row.  Who's getting those 24 high leverage outs for us?

If I recall correctly, the Mariners closer was dealt for peanuts.  

This is 100% a problem. But rather than beat your head into the wall, maybe your manager has to adjust(I think he has some) but in the playoffs to rely on your strength(starters), more than your weakness(bullpen). Even if this "gasp" means letting a starter go 6 or 7 in a playoff game!

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I have no insight into the front office workings, however I have an idea. Is it possible they were told no net increase in payroll. I'm not calling the Pohlads cheap here, but why would they approve an increase in payroll for an under performing team.  Attendance is down, and they are performing much like last year without the same number of injuries. Doing nothing is not like this front office so this is the only thing that makes any sense to me, and if its right I can't really blame the Pohlads.

Agree that they might have been told to stand pat. I'm not sure about the payroll aspect, but ownership might have said they've made their beds with some poor signings and bad trades and they don't get to waste any more prospect equity trying to fix their mistakes. Win with the players you already asked for, or someone else will get a shot.

But to be fair, this was the most blasé group of deadline players I remember. There was really nobody that would have moved the needle for me. David Robertson might have been the only guy I saw moved that I thought the Twins should have been in on.

[mnfireman]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Your opinion is that trying to upgrade the middle relief on this contending team would be trading for the sake of it? No real need there? 

Well, they made a trade just for the sake of making a trade, and, as hard to believe as it is, Floro has been just as bad as Lopez was/is. Unless you go by FIP, but that's a different argument.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I have no insight into the front office workings, however I have an idea. Is it possible they were told no net increase in payroll. I'm not calling the Pohlads cheap here, but why would they approve an increase in payroll for an under performing team.  Attendance is down, and they are performing much like last year without the same number of injuries. Doing nothing is not like this front office so this is the only thing that makes any sense to me, and if its right I can't really blame the Pohlads.

All businesses have a budget that they must adhere to... however... what you are suggesting doesn't make sense to me. 

This would be a bad example but I'm the king of bad examples. 

If you buy a Brand New Ford Explorer for 50 Grand but can't afford the maintenance after you drop the 50K. 

You should have probably bought a Kia Seltos for 30 Grand and kept your SUV serviced and running at tip top shape.   

I can't imagine a professionally run front office painting themselves into a corner like that. 

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Let's say the Twins make the playoffs.  We all know the FO/Rocco are going to go the early hook route, so Gray/Lopez are going 5 tops.  That means 12 outs from the bullpen, 2 nights in a row.  Who's getting those 24 high leverage outs for us?

Ryan, Varland and Ober

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

when Duran and Jax who have just blown up games

Every reliever will have a bad inning and blow a game occasionally. It's just a matter of how often. Do you want the guy who blows up 1/10 times or 4/10 times?

[CRF]

Are you kidding me? You guys don't think that Floro was an awesome get?🤪

 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan, Varland and Ober

So 3 guys who have never been relievers, never warmed up in less than 45 minutes, and at least one of which will be a starter past the 1st round?

Terrific plan.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

As much as we all would have liked an extra arm or two in the bullpen, there really wasn't that much out there at the trading deadline that looked particularly enticing, or affordable. I think keeping our prospects was the right move. As others have noted, the time to make an addition was in the off-season. By the time July came around that opportunity wasn't so realistic. 

0 fer. That is what the Twins did. Lopez didn’t bounce back, Alcala still injured, Moran didn’t develop, Winder didn’t develop. The backup plans DeLeon and Stewart injured. The back up backup plan of Headrick and Ortega was meh. Balazovic may yet develop, they never gave him leverage situations. His pitching was purely for development. It wasn’t a failure yet it wasn’t a success either.  0 fer 9 on nine pitchers. That would be an immaculate inning of failure

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

So 3 guys who have never been relievers, never warmed up in less than 45 minutes, and at least one of which will be a starter past the 1st round?

Terrific plan.

It's not hard. You schedule it ahead of time, start their normal warmup in the 4th inning and have them come in to start the 6th inning. Let the short reliever come in if there is a need halfway through the 5th.

I'd rather they use Ryan, Ober and Varland than Jax, Floro and Balazovic.

[jorgenswest]

I advocated for non-tendering Pagán and signing a free agent. The Twins would probably have been worse off with my plan. Pagán has been as good or better than many of the similarly salaried free agents. In hindsight a more expensive Matt Moore would have been a great addition. Andrew Chafin (2 yrs 18 million) and Michael Fulmer not so much.