Is It Time to Worry About Jhoan Duran?

[Matthew Taylor]

Jhoan Duran had about as dominant of a rookie season as you can have as a reliever. After an equally strong start to 2023, Duran’s numbers have been slipping as of late. Should Twins fans be concerned?
 

Image courtesy of © Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

 

After posting a dominant 1.86 ERA in 67 ⅔ inning as a high-leverage reliever for the Minnesota Twins in 2022, Jhoan Duran came out of the gates on fire in 2023 in what looked like an equally dominant sophomore season. Through the first three months of the season, Jhoan Duran posted a 1.45 ERA, with opponents hitting just .147 against the right-hander.

Since the calendar changed from May to June, however, there has been a noticeable dip in Duran's numbers. Since June 1, Duran has a 4.26 ERA, and opponents are hitting at a clip of .265. Duran has allowed twice as many home runs in six fewer innings and has yet to put together a perfect outing in over a month.

The table below shows the stark difference in numbers before and after June 1.

While BABIP points to poor luck causing much of Duran's disappointing numbers this summer, underlying metrics also show a genuine reason for concern with the 25-year-old. 

In addition to his high FIP, Duran's average allowed exit velocity is up, and his xWOBA allowed is way up. 

One potential reason for the poor numbers comes from Pitch Profiler, who points out that Duran's induced vertical break is way down. This decrease in vertical break makes Duran's pitch paths more predictable, leading to more hits and a higher potential for home runs.

Another potential reason for Duran's poor late results is that he's overworked. With the top-heavy bullpen that the Twins have, in addition to their poor offense putting them in lots of close games, Duran not only has had to pitch many innings, but he has also had to pitch in many high-stress innings. While he is just 83rd in innings pitched as a reliever, Duran ranks third in all of baseball in average leverage index. Combining that with Duran's sky-high pitch velocities and fatigue is a more-than-reasonable explanation for much of the dip in performance.

Jhoan Duran still has the talent and ability to be one of the best relievers in the game. Some underlying metrics point to him being the victim of bad luck, with others pointing to a dip in performance. What appears to be clear, though, is that Duran is overworked. He's throwing high-stress innings consistently and has been doing so for the past two years. With the American League Central race all but locked up, the Twins should consider getting Duran some time off to be back in form in time for the playoffs because the Twins will need that right arm in October.

Are you worried about Jhoan Duran's dip in numbers lately? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[nicksaviking]

If he's not getting the vertical break on the heater, then he should probably just start cutting back on the sinker. Four seemers up and curveballs still probably work just fine when you're throwing 100+ MPH.

[DJL44]

A guy who has thrown almost 47 innings this season is overworked? No. How low do you want his workload to be?

[mnfireman]

Yes, Duran (and others) has pitched a lot of high leverage innings, but this is MLB 2023, players are in better condition then generations past. If a TD member can find the info stated in the article, so can the Twins, and take measures to correct it.

Here's my take; as good as the teams catching might be by the metrics, I think the collective pitch calling has been questionable overall. There have been a lot of hard hit 0-2 pitches off of almost every pitcher, which means either the pitchers are tipping their pitches (not likely ALL of them) or the pitch calling has gotten predictable. If a batter looks silly against the heater, don't speed his bat up by throwing off-speed, climb the ladder with the fastball, start the AB with the off-speed stuff and then bring the heat, etc... Too many talented pitchers on this roster for them to be getting hit hard when ahead in the count.

[bighat]

Not worried. Least of the Twins' problems. 

[IaBeanCounter]

"With the American League Central race all but locked up,"  

It should be locked up, but I fear it is far from being so.  Cleveland is only 4 games back in the loss column and we have 6 left against them, they also are ahead in the season series.  If they split the 6 games, Cle only has to tie the Twins to win the division.  The Tigers are 7 back in the loss column and has already won the season series.  

Between now and 9/6 the Twins have 3/Pitt, 2/Mil, 7/TX and 6/Cle.  This stretch will be large factor in determining the Central.

[Boswell]

Another benefit for the 2023 Lollygagging Twins!  Rest up down the stretch and get ready for the playoffs.  

Sure, give a few SVO’s to Jax, Pagan, Balazovic, whomever.   Slip back into “closer by committee” until October. 

Guardians lost their mojo, Tigers just not there yet, White Sox at dysfunction junction, Royals trying out different pieces.  

The Lollygagging Twins have 40 games to play.  20-20 gets them to a division title at 83-79.  

[chinmusic]

Beware the Guardians, IMO. A lot can happen in one week, let alone 6. And yeah, Duran and the bullpen in general are concerning at this point in time.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

A guy who has thrown almost 47 innings this season is overworked? No. How low do you want his workload to be?

Adding on. I looked at his game logs and he didn't pitch for 5 days in a row in August. Fatigue should not be the issue.

[Battle ur tail off]

Guys are figuring him out some. Advanced scouting, etc. The know not to offer at his offspeed stuff if they can help it and try to be on time with the gas. If he is missing or behind in counts, like he has been lately, a ball down the middle if a hitter is sitting on it can be hit and has been. He needs to adjust and get his command back. Some rest would be fine, but let's get a few games we don't need our studs to throw in. Let Cole Sands or whoever eat up some innings up 4-5 runs. 

[Karbo]

The thing I've noticed is the "splinker" isn't dropping off the table like last year. My thought is he may be throwing it with a little too much velo. He needs some sort of change-up to mess with hitters timing. Throw 102 then 85 would mess anyone up I would think.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Yes, Duran (and others) has pitched a lot of high leverage innings, but this is MLB 2023, players are in better condition then generations past. If a TD member can find the info stated in the article, so can the Twins, and take measures to correct it.

Here's my take; as good as the teams catching might be by the metrics, I think the collective pitch calling has been questionable overall. There have been a lot of hard hit 0-2 pitches off of almost every pitcher, which means either the pitchers are tipping their pitches (not likely ALL of them) or the pitch calling has gotten predictable. If a batter looks silly against the heater, don't speed his bat up by throwing off-speed, climb the ladder with the fastball, start the AB with the off-speed stuff and then bring the heat, etc... Too many talented pitchers on this roster for them to be getting hit hard when ahead in the count.

Completely agree!!

With Duran, his Splinker is nearly impossible to hit at 98-100. His fastball, if elevated or just moved in or out is very difficult to square up. His “best pitch” according to the Team is his curveball. I see the nasty break but I also see it’s the easiest of the 3 to catch up with and to slap somewhere. I think if he threw his fastball 60% of the time (v. 46%) - splitter 23% of the time - curve 17% of the time (generalities) …….the curve and splitter appear more devastating with their movement. I get the fastball may be more taxing but I think he’d be more effective and throw 80% as many total pitches.

Locating his fastball 4-6” up out of the zone is something he needs work on - currently his “show” high fastball is often a foot high…..just leads to more pitches. His out pitch should be a fastball an inch or 3” in or out OR fastball up 3-4”. Now he’s 0-2 & throwing curves over the plate to guys that are in protection mode - not effective!

It’s the same approach Gray has taken over past 3 starts - off the plate sliders are starting in the zone now not spiking 2 in dirt every other at bat 58ft from mound - those waste pitches are worthless. He’s recognized & cut back & now throwing less total pitches per inning.

[FlyingFinn]

I'm not concerned. If we are up by 2 runs, a closer can challenge a hitter and give up a HR. Still get 3 outs and you win. Just don't issue lead off walks and everything will be fine (the next thing we'll see on TD is not Pagan over Jax but Pagan over Duran as the closer - what is the world coming to!).

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

A guy who has thrown almost 47 innings this season is overworked? No. How low do you want his workload to be?

So sick of hearing Twins pitchers could be tired. What would have happened if we needed to be in league leaders of saves? Maybe next year the pitchers should work out with Pablo and not the training staff.

[farmerguychris]

Would love to see if he can develop a slider this offseason.  With the Front Office love affair with that particular pitch, would only imagine it would greatly add to his options, even if only threw it a few times a game.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Adding on. I looked at his game logs and he didn't pitch for 5 days in a row in August. Fatigue should not be the issue.

Seems he’s on pace for same or maybe a couple less innings than last year……..higher leverage this year as a rule. His problem is he’s throwing too many pitches per inning!

Mental fatigue, maybe, but he isn’t physically overworked.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s the same approach Gray has taken over past 3 starts - off the plate sliders are starting in the zone now not spiking 2 in dirt every other at bat 58ft from mound - those waste pitches are worthless. He’s recognized & cut back & now throwing less total pitches per inning.

I also think Gray is the only pitcher on the team (Maeda also??) allowed to call his own pitches. Seems like he's made the necessary adjustments and the catchers appear to be onboard with his game plan.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

let's get a few games we don't need our studs to throw in. Let Cole Sands or whoever eat up some innings up 4-5 runs. 

Those games are called losses.

[Riverbrian]

Every Team... Every Player... Every Year

 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

A guy who has thrown almost 47 innings this season is overworked? No. How low do you want his workload to be?

Concur.

And the vast majority are 1 inning outings. 

Only 7 times all season pitching back to back days, Only once 3 days in a row.

They've been very careful NOT to overwork him.

 

[TNtwins85]

I think it’s a combination of all the things. This guy has pitched a lot in high leverage situations on. He’s literally been the only guy to turn to when SHTF. Scouting is up on him. He’s gonna blow through his IP from last year. It’s his 2nd year even in this role in the show. His stuff isn’t as sharpe. Almost everything is going against him and he’s still super dominant compared to almost anyone else. It is what it is. If the twins do their job and take games they should take he’ll have the rest to be ready to go once the calendar hits october. I think we’re just used to how dominant he was last year and everyone has now adjusted. Remember, MLB players can hit 103. He still has to be a pitcher out there. 

[purplesoldier4u]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Yes, Duran (and others) has pitched a lot of high leverage innings, but this is MLB 2023, players are in better condition then generations past. If a TD member can find the info stated in the article, so can the Twins, and take measures to correct it.

Here's my take; as good as the teams catching might be by the metrics, I think the collective pitch calling has been questionable overall. There have been a lot of hard hit 0-2 pitches off of almost every pitcher, which means either the pitchers are tipping their pitches (not likely ALL of them) or the pitch calling has gotten predictable. If a batter looks silly against the heater, don't speed his bat up by throwing off-speed, climb the ladder with the fastball, start the AB with the off-speed stuff and then bring the heat, etc... Too many talented pitchers on this roster for them to be getting hit hard when ahead in the count.

The 0-2 comment seems spot on and when you live in the strike zone, you die in the strike zone ... unless you're Greg Maddux.

[mikelink45]

Yes we should be concerned.  Not sure what we can do about it.  But last game his hits all came off his curveball - yes it is supposed to be his best pitch, but if you get two fastball strikes you can now predict a curve will follow.  The pitching coach should see this and vary the sequences more. 

[Mydaughterhastwins]

Enough overthinking and delving into God forsaken analytics.  He will be fine.  Catchers and coaches do what you're paid to do but please Jhoan, just locate your amazing 103 mph gift, stay healthy, and let's win a pennant.

[HerbieFan]

In a word??....No

[terrydactyls]

I think a trip to the IL is just what the doctor ordered.  A little R&R to rest not just the arm but also the mind.

[BH67]

Struck out the side in the 9th tonight vs the Pirates. Threw 13 strikes out of 14 pitches vs. the Tigers.

I'll say "No."

[Beast]

I’m concerned.  Regardless of the reason why he’s struggled.

When he’s at his best he’s absolutely dominant.  The bullpen is built around him.  There’s nobody else. If he’s throwing arrow straight and getting knocked around to the tune of a 4.50+ ERA, he’s a liability.  There’s big time playoff implications there.  

[joefish]

23 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Yes, Duran (and others) has pitched a lot of high leverage innings, but this is MLB 2023, players are in better condition then generations past. If a TD member can find the info stated in the article, so can the Twins, and take measures to correct it.

Here's my take; as good as the teams catching might be by the metrics, I think the collective pitch calling has been questionable overall. There have been a lot of hard hit 0-2 pitches off of almost every pitcher, which means either the pitchers are tipping their pitches (not likely ALL of them) or the pitch calling has gotten predictable. If a batter looks silly against the heater, don't speed his bat up by throwing off-speed, climb the ladder with the fastball, start the AB with the off-speed stuff and then bring the heat, etc... Too many talented pitchers on this roster for them to be getting hit hard when ahead in the count.

This 2 strike pitch calling or location has been a problem.  Too many hard hit balls with 2 strikes in high leverage situations. Some game breaking home runs also.  They need a better 2 strike plan. The pitchers.

[MGM4706]

Big concern is his control. Seems to always put a runner on now in one run games that means bringing winning run to the plate.