4 Starters the Twins Can Consider for Late-Season Bullpen Roles

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s bullpen has needed an upgrade for most of the season. Can any current starters help add depth to the bullpen for the stretch run?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota’s starting pitching has carried the team through much of the regular season. In the playoffs, the Twins will need fewer starters for the postseason, so the team may have players shift to relief roles. Here are four starting pitchers the Twins might consider for a bullpen shift in the coming weeks. 

Kenta Maeda, RHP
Last season, there was talk about Maeda shifting to a bullpen role when he returned from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, the Twins fell out of the playoff race, and there was no reason to rush him back. One of the main reasons there was discussion about Maeda in a bullpen role was his previous success as a dominant postseason reliever during his Dodgers tenure. In 25 postseason appearances, he has a 2.87 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. He has not made a relief appearance since being traded to the Twins before the 2020 season. 

Maeda has been the team’s best starter in the second half, so the club might be hesitant about him shifting to a different role. Since returning from an early season IL stint, Maeda has posted a 2.36 ERA with a 62-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 49 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .190/.251/.333 (.585) during this stretch. If the playoffs started today, the Twins would have to put Maeda into the starting rotation, but a lot can happen in the coming weeks to change that narrative. 

Dallas Keuchel, LHP
Keuchel’s Twins tenure started well by pitching five innings and allowing one run on eight hits. Many fans called for him to join the rotation after he posted a 1.12 ERA across six starts with the Saints. His minor-league totals were acceptable, but some peripheral numbers pointed to his recent struggles from recent seasons. Keuchel struggles to strike out batters and gives up a lot of contact, which can lead to runs. Those aren’t exactly traits that a team desires from a bullpen option in critical late-season games. 

In his first start, his velocity increased on every pitch type compared to last season. Most of his pitches top out in the high-80s without missing many bats. As a left-handed pitcher, there might be a bullpen opportunity if Caleb Thielbar struggles with his return from the IL. Keuchel’s second start with the Twins was disastrous, so his only chance to impact the Twins late in the season is likely in the bullpen. Would the team want a soft-throwing lefty as a reliever?

Louie Varland, RHP
Varland dominated in his most recent Triple-A start on the same night Keuchel struggled with the Twins. He is part of the team’s long-term plans and is the back-to-back winner of the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year. Three bad starts in June pushed Varland out of the rotation when Maeda returned from the IL. Before that stretch, he had a 3.51 ERA with 39 strikeouts and eight walks in 41 innings. He seems likely to rejoin the Twins rotation shortly, especially if the team feels the Keuchel experiment was a failure. 

The Twins won’t need five starters in the playoffs, and that’s why an eventual bullpen move for Varland makes sense. Last season, he pitched a career-high 152 1/3 innings, and he’s about 30 innings behind that total in 2023. Minnesota can help monitor Varland’s innings down the stretch while still finding him a useful role for the big-league club in October. 

Chris Paddack, RHP
Paddack is the dark horse in this group. Similar to Maeda in 2022, Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery and might be able to join the team in September. It’s his second time recovering from this procedure, so he is very familiar with the process, and he’s about 14 months removed from the surgery. Paddack is scheduled to face live hitters in mid-August, which puts him on track to rejoin the Twins sometime in September. 

It seems natural for Paddack to want to return to the mound and help his team. However, there is no reason to rush him back to make a handful of appearances with the club. It seems more likely for the team to give him the entire off-season to recover and be full strength for spring training next season. 

Will the Twins move any of these starters into relief roles? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

View full article

[karcherd]

Keuchel needs to be DFA'd, he should not be on a major league roster for any role.

[DJL44]

Maeda is in the playoff rotation with Gray and Lopez. Joe Ryan could be a relief option.

[Jocko87]

I've been beating the Varland drum for a while now.  No reason to believe it precludes future starting for him and its the only way he can make the postseason roster without a catastrophe.  He also seems like a guy who can really pump it up in a short stint. 

Paddock would be a natural fit as well.  Meada didn't come back last year because the team tanked.  Had there been a playoff run Meada would have gotten a look and I don't see any non-medical reason why they wouldn't give Paddock some hitters.  How he looks and feels decides how far it goes.  If he's on track bring him back.

Kuechel is a no.  Can't strike anyone out, struggles controlling the running game, opposite of a firefighter.  I can't think of a single game situation where I would want to use him our of the pen.  I'm good with him hanging around for a while, making spot starts to eat innings and setup a post season rotation but I can't see him making the postseason roster.

Meada is pitching too well to fool with.  Depending on how Ryan comes back the rotation will be interesting.  I could see him piggy back with someone but he needs to stay stretched out.

Paddock and Varland would be enough to provide real options, just like making a trade™️.  I still think the only way to make a run this year is to pitch our way through and we might as well throw all the arms at we can.

[chpettit19]

Right now it's Lopez, Gray, and Maeda as your top 3 playoff arms so I'm not sure why we'd be looking to move one of them to the pen. That can certainly change in the coming weeks, but none of those 3 guys are currently in play for pen roles. And until they have the division locked up Ryan and Ober aren't going to the pen either. 1 of them, as of now, likely gets a pen role come October, though. I'd guess Ober, but it'll likely come down to who's pitching best at the end of September.

Can we stop with this Keuchel nonsense? He wasn't dominant in AAA. He was far more lucky than good in his first start. He was completely brutal in his second start. He's been brutal for the previous 2 years as well. Why would we want a guy who's WHIP in his "good" start was 2.0, and who hasn't struck out a major league hitter this year in the pen? What purpose would that serve? Keuchel is a horrid pen option.

Varland I think is a likely late season, and possibly postseason, pen arm. I think they'll turn to him and see if he can hit 100+ if he's only throwing an inning at a time. Before then I'd hope he replaces Keuchel in the rotation for anymore starts needed there, but I'm not holding my breath that they actually make that move. But I'd take Varland's stuff in short stints over a number of guys in the pen right now.

If Paddack returns this year it'll be out of the pen, and I actually hope that happens in September so he can start knocking the TJ rust off now. Even just a handful of innings in September would be useful as he gets into the offseason to work on getting that command back to game form. I wouldn't expect him to see any important innings, but even just a rehab assignment to get him in games this year would be useful, I think.

[CRF]

Maeda's been very good since the break...no way would I take him out of the rota. Varland should be up here instead of Keuchel. Keuchel should be let go. I wouldn't rush Paddack back, but if he does come back in Sept, I'd use him in the pen to give him some innings. 

[Trov]

Is the Keuchel pen suggestion a joke?  He will get another start or two, and maybe he shows he can help us seal up the division but no way do I want him on the post season roster.  Other than being left handed, he has nothing going for him.  He walks too many, strikes out no one.  Sure, we could get lucky if he came in with runners on for a double play, but he has 0 k's in 36 batters faced so far this year. Yes, he did well overall in 32 innings in the minors, but so far against MLB hitters he still looks cooked to me. 

[Shaitan]

Your solution is to call up demoted and/or waived starters? Yikes.

The answer depends on the question. How are these starters to be used from the bullpen? Most SP aren't used to the fireman role. Maybe Maeda, in that sense. But if they're only going to pitch in a bases-empty scenario, they'll go with the now-standard 4 SP postseason rotation and put #5 in there (or not carry them on the roster at all).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

You leave Kenta Maeda where he is.   He is currently one of our top 3 pitchers.   You add in the fact,  the odds he gets a qualifying offer, and rejects an offer are increasing with each quality start and its not something that is just wishful thinking.  On many Lists he is in the top 30 currently.   He is 25 on the current list I saw,  and the pitchers ahead of him are Paxton, Giolito, Montgomery, Flaherty, Rodriguez, Stroman then Gray.   

 

23. Kenta Maeda, RHP, Twins

Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 185
2023 WAR: 0.7 Career WAR: 8.2

Contract status: $3.125 million in 2023

Maeda is healthy and holding his own, posting a 4.22 ERA in 12 starts, with 72 strikeouts in 59 2/3 innings. He missed about two months earlier this year with a triceps strain. The veteran righty has yielded two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts. If he keeps it up, he too could get a qualifying offer in November.

[TwinkieFan4life]

If all are healthy I would throw Gray in the second game and use Ryan to relieve him.  You should be able to get 8-9 strong innings from the two of them.

I like the idea of rostering Varland as a bullpen arm.

[Road trip]

53 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

 

The answer depends on the question. How are these starters to be used from the bullpen? Most SP aren't used to the fireman role. Maybe Maeda, in that sense. But if they're only going to pitch in a bases-empty scenario, they'll go with the now-standard 4 SP postseason rotation and put #5 in there (or not carry them on the roster at all).

While that was the standard, the format has changed.  The first series vs a wildcard opponent will now be "best of 3" series.  There is no reason to save or plan for a 4th starter.  All hands on deck...

The Twins are the very rare team where the 4th and 5th starters (Ober and Ryan, at the moment) are significantly better pitchers than the majority of the bullpen options (arguably everyone other than Duran).  It would be managerial malpractice not to have  contingency plans to utilize them in some kind of role during the wildcard round.  Yes, they aren't accustomed to coming into a game with men on base.  However if given sufficient time to warm up they should be perfectly capable of entering the game to start the 6th or 7th inning.

 

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Road trip said:

The Twins are the very rare team where the 4th and 5th starters (Ober and Ryan, at the moment) are significantly better pitchers than the majority of the bullpen options

They could potentially have Ober, Ryan and Varland ready to piggy-back for each of Lopez, Gray and Maeda. I'm not sure which I would pair with each other.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

Your solution is to call up demoted and/or waived starters? Yikes.

The answer depends on the question. How are these starters to be used from the bullpen? Most SP aren't used to the fireman role. Maybe Maeda, in that sense. But if they're only going to pitch in a bases-empty scenario, they'll go with the now-standard 4 SP postseason rotation and put #5 in there (or not carry them on the roster at all).

Plenty of great relievers were once demoted starters... just not the likes of Kuechel. Maeda was great in the pen for the Dodgers in the playoffs. I could see Varland be effective with a couple more MPH on his pitches in the pen.

[mnfireman]

I would guess after Lopez, Gray, & Maeda, I would go with whoever finished stronger between Ryan and Ober, and I think this little IL stint will give Ryan and advantage down the stretch. Right now, because of the days off coming, I would flip Maeda and Ober in the rotation, starting tonight. Ober can get a couple extra days rest between his next couple of starts and it sets the rotation of Lopez - Gray - Maeda for the play-offs (fingers crossed). 

[Bamboo Bat]

"Maeda has been the team’s best starter in the second half, so the club"

Any suggestion that Maeda be moved to the bullpen - when the strength of the team this year has been starting pitching - makes the entire article instantly suspect. 

Keuchel. Just no. 

Varland. Just no. Perhaps in the future, but i don't want an untried rookie pitching big innings during the stretch run. 

Paddack. Eh. He's flashed good stuff during his limited outings with the Twins but if he's really back, I'd prefer he supplant the Cole/Winder/Etc. rotation of innings-eaters. 

So. No for four. The real answer isn't a real answer, & that's the front office adding another competent arm at the deadline. But that boat is well out of sight. 

[Shaitan]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

While that was the standard, the format has changed.  The first series vs a wildcard opponent will now be "best of 3" series.  There is no reason to save or plan for a 4th starter.  All hands on deck...

The Twins are the very rare team where the 4th and 5th starters (Ober and Ryan, at the moment) are significantly better pitchers than the majority of the bullpen options (arguably everyone other than Duran).  It would be managerial malpractice not to have  contingency plans to utilize them in some kind of role during the wildcard round.  Yes, they aren't accustomed to coming into a game with men on base.  However if given sufficient time to warm up they should be perfectly capable of entering the game to start the 6th or 7th inning.

 

Is somebody implying that the manager won't have a contingency plan? That seems...beyond worth discussing. Of course they aren't going to make it up as they go.

But that's not what this article is proposing: other than Maeda, the author is basically discussing roster changes. (I'm not counting Kuechel in the discussion at all.)

[Shaitan]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Plenty of great relievers were once demoted starters... just not the likes of Kuechel. Maeda was great in the pen for the Dodgers in the playoffs. I could see Varland be effective with a couple more MPH on his pitches in the pen.

While true, that's more of a focus on players' careers than one-off playoff series.

I guess I haven't studied playoff rosters the last few years, but don't most teams add role/bench players rather than stocking a super large bullpen? 

But, sure, I'd rather see Varland than about half of the current BP.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Maeda - Probably not.  He's currently (arguably) the best starter.  This could easily change over the next month however.  The good news would be that he has done it before and knows what it takes, which are traits not to be underestimated.

Keuchel - He's done.  Get one more start out of him just to eat some innings and bridge us to another healthy starter, thank him for his service, and send him away.  His low velocity stuff won't play well out of the bullpen anyway.  If we are in the playoffs and Keuchel is pitching, we're behind by five+ runs and it doesn't matter who pitches. We have Luplow for that.

Varland - I think this is likely.  His stuff might really play up in one inning stints and it seems unlikely that we will need him as a starter, although again, that could change.

Paddack - I would love it if he got a few innings in September, but I'm really not holding my breath for much at this point.  That's a lot of pressure to put on a "recovery" situation.  Those innings could be useful for his recovery road though.

The unused starters -- right now that would likely be Ryan and Ober, although again, that could change.  You keep one as your fourth starter, which you could need due to injury/ineffectiveness, etc.  The other goes to the bullpen and is likely one of your high leverage guys.  That being said, an arrangement where one of them starts and goes 5 or so and the other comes in and finishes the game could be pretty exciting I think.

You may have noticed how often I pointed out that "again, that could could change."  We're a little too early to started measuring drapes for the playoff bullpen.  We're not quite there yet, plus we don't know which pitchers will be hitting on all cylinders (or any cylinders) at that point.  Give it at least two more weeks before we start to assign and streamline people into new roles. 

Let's go Twins!  Let's win some ballgames!

[LanceJS]

Keuchel reminds me of Steve Carlton in 1987 - nothing left and will not be on a postseason roster. Maeda stays in the rotation - I like the idea of Paddock if he is ready AND shows he can get batters out

[twinstalker]

SWR might look different in middle relief out of St. Paul.  Balazovic isn't a horrible comp.

[HerbieFan]

I guess given recent performance, I'd lean more Ryan in the 'pen than Maeda.  I wonder if they could get him up a couple ticks on the fastball?

[strumdatjag]

What?  No love here for Randy Travis William Dobnak? Not saying I support it BUT …

[Karbo]

Maeda stays starting. At this point, if they make the playoffs, it would seem between Ryan and Ober as to a 4th starter, with the other moving to the pen. I anticipate Varland coming up for a middle to long relief role. I don't cee Keuchel staying with the team, unless he looks a whole lot better in his next start.

[Peter]

Paddock is the sleeper and yes he would be great in bullpen along with over over and Ryan.  Kuechel should finish season as starter and keep on rotation. No on varland and keep Kenta where he’s at. 

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, Bamboo Bat said:

Varland. Just no. Perhaps in the future, but i don't want an untried rookie pitching big innings during the stretch run. 

They're using Headrick, Sands, Balazovic and Winder. Varland is as "tried" as any of them.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Maeda is in the playoff rotation with Gray and Lopez. Joe Ryan could be a relief option.

Absolutely!

Ober is our 3rd/4th starter along with Maeda……..probably depending upon match-ups/history v. opponent.

Lopez & Gray are out front.

Ryan’s a guy that can come in and not have to worry about going for more than 5-6 batters ……with the strikeout profile…….high fastball for out pitch, he’s ideal for this role!

I think Kuechel could be a guy to bring in and get outs with lefties coming up……an inning in a game or two. Match-ups with Kuechel are key. Gotta see some success between now & end of September though - he may be DFA’d in 12 days?

Varland, same deal as Ryan. Can leave it all out there with short stints …….5-6 guys at a time. He needs a clean inning to work - no traffic when entering. He can be emotional and a little loose with command.

[PatPfund]

I remember after Varland blowing away the Astros being horrified at the thought of Maeda taking his place in the rotation, then he got lit up three times straight and was an easy demotion. Which goes to show how sketchy making these calls 6 weeks out can be. But...

Keuchel, no. I'd give him one more start and focus less on earned runs than WHIP. If he gets knocked around for the third straight start, it is time to pull that plug and call up Varland (who looks great again). Starting late season games is just the kind of prep you want for post-season (and pitching out of the 'pen ain't rocket science; starters do it every year).

Maeda, no, unless he fades. If quality holds, I'd plan on 4 SPs, move #5 to the 'pen. And I'd give Kody Funderburk the next train ride over from St Paul. Dude's got 3 straight years of ERAs in the 2s and is currently fanning 1.5/inning, has 25 BB against 83 K, and peeps are hitting under .200 against him the last three months. That looks like real help rather than a fungible arm, but we kind of have to know how he fares against MLB fairly soon.

(Oh, and I'll mention Randy Dobnak. As in "Randy Dobnak got beaten like a dirty rug last night.")

[Jocko87]

On 8/15/2023 at 2:19 PM, Road trip said:

While that was the standard, the format has changed.  The first series vs a wildcard opponent will now be "best of 3" series.  There is no reason to save or plan for a 4th starter.  All hands on deck...

The Twins are the very rare team where the 4th and 5th starters (Ober and Ryan, at the moment) are significantly better pitchers than the majority of the bullpen options (arguably everyone other than Duran).  It would be managerial malpractice not to have  contingency plans to utilize them in some kind of role during the wildcard round.  Yes, they aren't accustomed to coming into a game with men on base.  However if given sufficient time to warm up they should be perfectly capable of entering the game to start the 6th or 7th inning.

 

Key point is that they have all relieved before, at some level. They do it all pre-season getting ready. We aren't reinventing the wheel here.

Sure they probably won't be the first choice for a mid-inning appearance in the playoffs but they can certainly start a fresh inning anywhere in the game. They will know who's on tap for a given day and be ready, just like the rest of the pen. It's still pitching, we aren't asking them to DH.

[Major League Ready]

It's nice to have options.  🫠