Twins 1, Braves 4: Gray Duels Strider but Twins Lose to Hot Braves

[Nate Palmer]

Minnesota Twins fans were treated to a great pitchers duel for most of Monday evening. In the end, the Braves bats beat the Twins in a 4-1 loss. 

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

 

Box Score
SP: Sonny Gray: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (102 pitches, 69 strikes (65.9%)
Home Runs: Joey Gallo (13)
Bottom 3 WPA: Emilio Pagan (-0.163), Carlos Correa (-0.134), Willi Castro (-0.131)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

Coming off of a series win, the Minnesota Twins opened a series against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves Monday evening. We were in for quite the treat in the opener as the Twins' Sonny Gray and Braves' Spencer Strider faced off against one another on the mound. With “Quad-zilla” Strider, the Twins saw their weakness, strikeouts, face off with the righty's strength as the MLB strikeout leader. 

Gallo Finds the Chink in the Armor 
Strider hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was last season. One of the reasons is his propensity to give up the long ball. Coming into Monday, Strider was allowing 1.28 home runs per nine innings. 

In the second inning, Joey Gallo took the first pitch he saw from Strider and sent it to the trees in center field. Despite some struggles to stay consistent at the plate, the home run was Gallo’s 13th of the season. 

Gray Duels Strider
Gray has had a very good 2023 sporting a 2.56 ERA and his very low 0.22 HR/9. As of late, Gray has found himself in some wobbly innings mid-game, making some of his starts feel worse than the box score reflected. Overall, that was not the case Monday. 

On the other side, Strider is a different type of pitcher than Gray and significantly outpaced him in the strikeout column. Strider limited the Twins bats outside Gallo’s home run by striking out ten batters. 

Gray would leave the game with the Twins down 2-1 after allowing his third home run of the season to Marcell Ozuna in the seventh inning. Even though Gray left the game with the Twins down by a run, he pitched a great game. Gray held one of the best and hottest lineups in MLB in check. 

Then enter Emilio Pagan…

Pagan Allows Final Blow
After Alex Kirilloff narrowly missed a highlight reel catch to allow Michael Harris II to reach base for the third time, Gray was lifted for Pagan. Pagan took the mound to face the Braves best hitter and a front runner for MVP honors in Ronal Acuna Jr. As Twins fans have witnessed too often, Pagan gave up a home run to Acuna to put the Braves up 4-1. 

Pagan continuing to get these sorts of chances also points to just how thin the Twins bullpen is. The front office didn’t do much to fortify it this offseason, and injuries have only further ravaged that lack of depth. 

What’s Next? 
After a tough loss, the Twins will look to Joe Ryan to even the series. Ryan is fresh off his shutout performance which he took the distance. The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder who has outpaced his expected results to become the NL ERA leader with a 2.40 ERA.

 

Postgame Interviews

 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Stewart	0	28	0	14	0	42
Pagán	0	0	30	0	8	38
Durán	0	19	0	15	0	34
Jax	0	12	0	17	0	29
Balazovic	0	0	6	18	0	24
Winder	0	0	0	0	19	19
Morán	0	16	0	0	0	16
Headrick	0	0	0	6	0	6

 

 

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[SwainZag]

It's too bad Gray couldn't finish out the 7th.  I'm surprised they let him pitch to Harris, who already had two solid hits against him tonight. 

[roger]

Fun game to watch, until it wasn’t.  Gotta wonder what happens if he lets Gray pitch to one more hitter, but can’t blame him for making the change.

Biggest problem I saw was getting nothing in the 8th with Julien and AK on second and third.

[David Maro]

Pagan can't throw 2 cutters in row in the middle of the zone. Don't think many hitters miss that pitch twice. Why are they still swinging for the fences with 1 on in the 9th,need 3 not 2. Pinch hitting Buxton if he's not right is dumb. He will only disappoint. This was just another game of 12 strike outs and hard to watch baseball.

[Maybebaby]

Another game where offense is offensive.  Where is Lewis at least he puts the ball in play!

 

 

[gunnarthor]

I really think they should be sellers at the deadline. Or, at least, listen on offers for Gray.

[launchingthrees]

48 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I really think they should be sellers at the deadline. Or, at least, listen on offers for Gray.

I'm not quite there yet but if the offense continues as is for another couple months then it'll be time to see what they can get for him. Maybe the front office can redeem themselves for the franchise altering Mahle/Lopez disaster trades

[LastOnePicked]

47 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I really think they should be sellers at the deadline. Or, at least, listen on offers for Gray.

Agreed. On paper, they're not that far from contending. On the field, it seems like they're light years away from a team like Atlanta. There's just no there there. A .500-ish team in baseball's worst division. That's not a team on the cusp of glory.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I really think they should be sellers at the deadline. Or, at least, listen on offers for Gray.

Way too early to decide that. They have another 6 weeks or so to see where they're at. And while I want to see something more, we've seen them be generally very competitive against good teams. And, I'd rather see them win the division than not... and just take their chances in the playoffs. They'd be the 3 seed and play the 6 seed, and maybe they can just get a win and end old narratives. 

[D.C Twins]

On a positive note... Gallo's bat was disrupted during a swing by a baseball today!

[D.C Twins]

41 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Way too early to decide that. They have another 6 weeks or so to see where they're at. And while I want to see something more, we've seen them be generally very competitive against good teams. And, I'd rather see them win the division than not... and just take their chances in the playoffs. They'd be the 3 seed and play the 6 seed, and maybe they can just get a win and end old narratives. 

One can only imagine the breathtaking number of Ks the Twins would amass against an ACE during the playoffs... It would give them the opportunity to double down on regular season strikeout records with some playoff strikeout records! 

[TwinkieFan4life]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Way too early to decide that. They have another 6 weeks or so to see where they're at. And while I want to see something more, we've seen them be generally very competitive against good teams. And, I'd rather see them win the division than not... and just take their chances in the playoffs. They'd be the 3 seed and play the 6 seed, and maybe they can just get a win and end old narratives. 

It is possible that the Twins could sell AND win the division and possibly a playoff game.  A playoff rotation fronted by Ryan, Lopez, and Over would be just fine.  Losing Gray and or Maeda would hurt, but could contribute to building a special team down the road.  One that can harbor greater ambition than "ending old narratives" (winning a game).

I guess I can see both arguments.  If the Twins don't sell they have to add an impact bat.  Taking this offense as is down the stretch is a waste of assets.  I am no longer willing to hope for a return to health for Polanco and Buck.  They can't be counted on.  We need hitters who are physically able to play baseball.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Oh Well....tomorrow is another game!

[LewFordLives]

9 hours ago, roger said:

Fun game to watch, until it wasn’t.  Gotta wonder what happens if he lets Gray pitch to one more hitter, but can’t blame him for making the change.

Biggest problem I saw was getting nothing in the 8th with Julien and AK on second and third.

Agreed. That Acuna HR was the death blow. If it was only a one run game then maybe the Twins send that runner home in the 8th on the fly to Rosario. 

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

One can only imagine the breathtaking number of Ks the Twins would amass against an ACE during the playoffs... It would give them the opportunity to double down on regular season strikeout records with some playoff strikeout records! 

Didn't they just face the ace of the #2 team in baseball?

Edit: and the major league leader in strikeouts

[TwinsDr2021]

6 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Losing Gray and or Maeda would hurt, but could contribute to building a special team down the road.  One that can harbor greater ambition than "ending old narratives" (winning a game).

IMO Gray and Maeda aren't going to return the type of players you are hoping to get in a trade. Maybe a real young prospect that turns into something years down the line (like Duran). I can't imagine the Reds would trade back Petty for a half season of Gray.

But with that said I am open to trading Gallo, Kepler, Gray and Maeda while still shopping for a relief pitcher or two that can be trusted. Gray would have to be return they just can't say no to, and the other three I say yes to the trade offer without caring at all who the other team is offering.

[Blyleven2011]

Winnable game until you know who came in to pitch  ...

I laughed  when  pagan came into the game,  WHY would he be your first choice  in  winnable game , WHY is he even on the team ....

[umterp23]

Game of inches, feet and luck of batted balls is the Twins in games like this.

Gallo does enough with 98mph heater for homer and 1 run lead.

Julien two base hits were both "barreled" of 80mph for bloop base hits.  Hit'em where they aint worked for him.

Jeffers two "BARRELED" outs were both 100mph with liner to 2nd baseball after almost taking pitchers head off and Rosario making a really nice sliding catch in the 8th.  If Rosario misses, Jeffers on 2nd, Julien and AK would have produced a run and outcome might have been different.  Game of inches for Jeffers but nothing to show for it.

Buxton is "hurting" this team with how fragile he is.  Twins have tried to bubble wrap him for protection and we still get fragile version of glorified Lee Majors "15" million dollar man.  Put the dude on IL and get him back after All-Star break.

Correa, good defense, not clutch with the bat.  

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

It is possible that the Twins could sell AND win the division and possibly a playoff game.  A playoff rotation fronted by Ryan, Lopez, and Over would be just fine.  Losing Gray and or Maeda would hurt, but could contribute to building a special team down the road.  One that can harbor greater ambition than "ending old narratives" (winning a game).

I guess I can see both arguments.  If the Twins don't sell they have to add an impact bat.  Taking this offense as is down the stretch is a waste of assets.  I am no longer willing to hope for a return to health for Polanco and Buck.  They can't be counted on.  We need hitters who are physically able to play baseball.

But who replaces Gray and Maeda? Do those replacements get us to the playoffs or make our chances worse? The depth of our rotation is what’s kept us in it. If we sell on some of these guys, particularly if we are still leading the division by the trade deadline, I think we are basically throwing in the towel. So either go for it or don’t. I agree that Ryan, Lopez and Ober would be fine as a rotation in the playoffs, but I do think you need a 4th starter. Varland? Pretty sure I’d rather have Gray with Maeda to the pen. But that’s all moot, if we don’t get there to begin with. I’d rather get to the playoffs and lose than not make the playoffs at all.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

As much as it is tempting to blame Pagan, the bottom of the 7th would have ended without another run scored if Gray had moved to cover first on Harris' hit into the 3 - 4 hole.  No telling how things might have played out after that.  It was bang-bang, but that defensive reaction needs to be instinctive.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Didn't they just face the ace of the #2 team in baseball?

Edit: and the major league leader in strikeouts

And they managed to score 1 run, on 3 hits while striking out 10 times against him.  I’m pretty sure you just made the point you thought you were arguing against.

[Cap'n Piranha]

18 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

But who replaces Gray and Maeda? Do those replacements get us to the playoffs or make our chances worse? The depth of our rotation is what’s kept us in it. If we sell on some of these guys, particularly if we are still leading the division by the trade deadline, I think we are basically throwing in the towel. So either go for it or don’t. I agree that Ryan, Lopez and Ober would be fine as a rotation in the playoffs, but I do think you need a 4th starter. Varland? Pretty sure I’d rather have Gray with Maeda to the pen. But that’s all moot, if we don’t get there to begin with. I’d rather get to the playoffs and lose than not make the playoffs at all.

If only we had a FO that could create a pitching pipeline, we wouldn’t need to worry about replacements.  I find it so very Minnesotan to be happy just making the playoffs.  We should all want more than that.

Just making the playoffs is fine—if you’re an up-and-coming team like the Orioles, with young guys everywhere figuring it out.  It’s not fine if you’re a veteran-heavy team massively underachieving; like the Twins.

We’re more than 30 years removed from the last time the Twins were a factor in the postseason, and with the exception of a handful of years since then (early 2000’s, 2019-2020), this team has been completely irrelevant.  
 

Falvine’s job was to create a sustained winner, and while the early returns were promising, those are long gone.  Their team plays in one of the worst divisions of all time, they’ve gotten unprecedented spending power, have repeatedly raided the farm system for arms, and still can’t get the team above .500.  With the exception of Ryan, Odorizzi, and Duran, they have more or less lost every trade they’ve made.  I don’t want the Twins to make the playoffs because I don’t think whatever Falvine is doing is working, and they’re unlikely to be fired if they make the playoffs.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

And they managed to score 1 run, on 3 hits while striking out 10 times against him.  I’m pretty sure you just made the point you thought you were arguing against.

Wasn't arguing against the premise, just pointing out they basically just faced the best of the best and it was close game, and in a close games anything can happen (kind of the play in the 7th). Not disagreeing that the bats have to be better and probably the game plan as well. But I will take Ryan, Gray, Ober/Lopez and in a 3 or 5 game series and see what happens.

[Whitey333]

Game started out strange with the lineups.  Royse Lewis not starting thd day after he had 3 hits.  If he wasn't hurt that's pure lunacy.  Pinch hitting with Buxton at anytime this past two months is pure lunacy.  He us an automatic out usually via strikeout.  Putting Pagan in to pitch in that situation is pure lunacy.  It's so sad that many people thought the Twins played very well.  After all it was against a great pitcher and a better team.  Bottom line twins lost 4-1 against a far superior team and organization.  Why can't Twins fans enjoy a consistently winning and competitive team?  Why are we supposed to be happy with mediocrity?

[Swing Batter-Batter]

11 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Game started out strange with the lineups.  Royse Lewis not starting thd day after he had 3 hits.  If he wasn't hurt that's pure lunacy.  Pinch hitting with Buxton at anytime this past two months is pure lunacy.  He us an automatic out usually via strikeout.  Putting Pagan in to pitch in that situation is pure lunacy.  It's so sad that many people thought the Twins played very well.  After all it was against a great pitcher and a better team.  Bottom line twins lost 4-1 against a far superior team and organization.  Why can't Twins fans enjoy a consistently winning and competitive team?  Why are we supposed to be happy with mediocrity?

Rocco does this all the time. Somebody goes 2-4 or 3-4 and they sit the next game. He's been doing it for multiple years.

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If only we had a FO that could create a pitching pipeline, we wouldn’t need to worry about replacements.  I find it so very Minnesotan to be happy just making the playoffs.  We should all want more than that.

Just making the playoffs is fine—if you’re an up-and-coming team like the Orioles, with young guys everywhere figuring it out.  It’s not fine if you’re a veteran-heavy team massively underachieving; like the Twins.

We’re more than 30 years removed from the last time the Twins were a factor in the postseason, and with the exception of a handful of years since then (early 2000’s, 2019-2020), this team has been completely irrelevant.  
 

Falvine’s job was to create a sustained winner, and while the early returns were promising, those are long gone.  Their team plays in one of the worst divisions of all time, they’ve gotten unprecedented spending power, have repeatedly raided the farm system for arms, and still can’t get the team above .500.  With the exception of Ryan, Odorizzi, and Duran, they have more or less lost every trade they’ve made.  I don’t want the Twins to make the playoffs because I don’t think whatever Falvine is doing is working, and they’re unlikely to be fired if they make the playoffs.

There's a difference between "prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs," and "happy just making the playoffs."

[gman]

Sad. Really sad and unwatchable.

[LastOnePicked]

51 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Falvine’s job was to create a sustained winner, and while the early returns were promising, those are long gone.  Their team plays in one of the worst divisions of all time, they’ve gotten unprecedented spending power, have repeatedly raided the farm system for arms, and still can’t get the team above .500.  With the exception of Ryan, Odorizzi, and Duran, they have more or less lost every trade they’ve made.  I don’t want the Twins to make the playoffs because I don’t think whatever Falvine is doing is working, and they’re unlikely to be fired if they make the playoffs.

This is EXACTLY how I feel. I want to see this team remolded into a winner, not to limp backwards into a playoff berth - a playoff berth that would only solidify and vindicate the faulty regime currently in place.

There's no reason the Twins couldn't become the Reds, Orioles, D-backs or Marlins in 2026 or 2027. Rebuild. Restructure. Or keep crawling around the AL Central. To me, the choice is clear.

[John Belinski]

Not playing Lewis made no sense, but that is how Rocco manages team.

Putting Buxton to pinch hit made no sense, but that is how Rocco manages team.

Wonder where Twins would be with a good manager to replace Rocco?

[SwainZag]

Good lord.   The Twins win 4/5 then lose one game on the road to the ace of quite possibly the best and hottest team in baseball and everyone jumps off the deep end again.