Week in Review: Beautiful Weather, Ugly Baseball

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins brought home the California sunshine from their West Coast road trip, playing in gorgeous conditions under sunny skies all week at Target Field.

Unfortunately, they also brought home their on-field trend of lethargic and lackluster play, which led to another losing week and growing rancor in the fanbase.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/22 through Sun, 5/28
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 27-26)
Run Differential Last Week: -1 (Overall: +42)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 48 | SF 4, MIN 1: Ober Faceplants, Bats Can't Pick Him Up
Game 49 | SF 4, MIN 3: Offense and Bullpen Combine for Brutal Loss
Game 50 | MIN 7, SF 1: Twins Avoid Sweep in Error-filled Blowout
Game 51 | TOR 3, MIN 1: Lineup Flounders Again as Slump Persists
Game 52 | MIN 9, TOR 7: Twins Ride Rookies, Willi Castro to Big Win
Game 53 | TOR 3, MIN 0: Another Embarrassing No-Show from Offense

NEWS & NOTES

The Twins are playing really badly right now, and it's getting worse not better. 

While one might've made an argument in the previous week that bad umpire calls and unfortunate breaks were key factors in letting several winnable games slip away, this past week was marked by undeniably poor play from front to back. Even Minnesota's two victories weren't all that impressive, with both sleepy teams kicking the ball around on Wednesday and the Twins nearly blowing a huge lead on Saturday.

They need to start picking it up and they need to stop wasting time, as the sub-.500 Tigers are suddenly nipping at their heels, one game behind in the Central. It would be nice if the good news would begin to eclipse the bad news on the health front, but we're not there yet.

The stalling start to Trevor Larnach's career sadly continues;  the outfielder has now landed on the injured list due to a severe bout with pneumonia. The former first-round draft pick has seen his past two seasons majorly diminished by injuries, and is trying to finally establish himself at the big-league level. He's struggled to produce in sustained fashion for the Twins this year and now he's going to be down for awhile, which is especially unfavorable for Larnach given how well his replacement fared in a brief window.

HIGHLIGHTS

Let's start there: Matt Wallner delivered a definitive jolt for this lineup. He provided one of the best individual offensive performances from a Twin all season on Saturday when he went 4-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs, also gunning down a runner at second on a laser-beam throw. Wallner followed by going 2-for-2 with two walks on Sunday, reaching base in all eight plate appearances between the two games.

The organization's reigning Minor League Player of the Year finally flashed his upside in a big way on the MLB stage, and it came at a crucial time, although he ironically was optioned after Sunday's game due to logistical factors. 

The stumbling Twins have been begging for someone to step up, and it's been the rookies and role player answering the call. Wallner wasn't alone over the weekend. 

Edouard Julien joined the fun on Saturday with three hits, including two doubles and a home run. Earlier in the week he went deep against San Francisco, and he sprinkled in four walks over his six starts. Amid some rookie lapses in the field and on the basepaths, Julien's biggest strengths were on display – namely, a disciplined plate approach and huge raw power to the opposite side and to left-center specifically.

Also contributing to Saturday's night-run outburst (nearly all of which ended up being needed) was Willi Castro, who is himself making a strong case on the fringe of the roster with an impact that makes him "disturbingly valuable," as one might say. 

While the limitations of his game will prevent anyone from confusing him for a star, Castro's defensive versatility and ability to put together an occasion power-fueled hot stretch at the plate – as we've seen of late – makes him a solid asset, and puts him in good position to survive some tough upcoming roster decisions. 

Much like in the lineup, a few key fixtures are keeping the bullpen afloat while others lapse and languish. The rising star of the unit is Brock Stewart, whose out-of-nowhere emergence as essentially the team's most trusted setup man has been life-saving for a spiraling relief corps. 

Stewart still has yet to be charged with a run through 14 appearances, and he pulled off his biggest high-stakes acrobatic act yet on Saturday, averting disaster by recording three outs to fend off an inherited late threat against Toronto. The outing left him with the best WPA in the Twins bullpen (0.86), despite his arriving nearly a month into the season.

Yes, Stewart's WPA bests even Jhoan Duran, but there's no doubting who is the king of this unit. While less unexpected, Duran's ongoing dominance is the steady foundation keeping the Twins bullpen from collapse. He notched four strikeouts over 1 ⅔ clean innings this past week, adding to his illustrious imprint in the record books. He set a new franchise record by reaching 104.6 MPH with his fastball on Wednesday, and also unleashed several triple-digit splitters in the same outing.

Given how routine it has become, I almost have to remind myself from time to time: this is not normal. This is special. Duran is an incredibly rare breed and while there is a great deal of improvement needed around him in the bullpen, you can't ask for a better centerpiece.

LOWLIGHTS

As this lineup keeps displaying a consistent sense of explosiveness and potency, it's increasingly difficult to look past the player who's supposed to be its beating heart. Byron Buxton shook off some renewed knee soreness to start all six games last week, and he did hit a home run on Tuesday, but overall he was a net negative, finishing 4-for-25 with the following production outside of his homer: three singles, no runs scored, no RBIs, no walks, 10 strikeouts. 

We all know that Buxton is an inherently streaky player, and to some extent, analyzing him in the midst of a downswing like this is bound to underplay his value. But that sort of hints at the core point here, which is that Buxton's hot streaks aren't outweighing his slumps to the extent this team needs them to. Yes, he leads the team's position players in Win Probability Added – a faint accomplishment on this squad – thanks to some huge moments, but too often those moments feel like oases in a desert of surrounding emptiness.

Last week was a perfect example. Buxton came through with the homer but otherwise yielded a flurry of outs, stranded runners, and low-quality at-bats. He looks like he's flat-out guessing on almost every pitch, with no plan or protocol in the box. 

Making Buxton's latest swoon even tougher to stomach is the growing inconvenience of his situation and its collateral implications. 

As the offense continues to repeatedly short-circuit and the defensive miscues mount, it gets harder and harder to ignore the elephant the room: accommodating Buxton's needs means the Twins are putting one of their best defensive players at DH everyday while in turn being forced to run out sub-par hitters (i.e. Michael A. Taylor, who went 2-for-19 with 12 strikeouts last week) and make tough defensive concessions like playing Castro in center field or Julien at second base. 

Alas, the situation shows no signs of changing. By all accounts, the Twins feel that this arrangement is the only way to keep Buxton on the field, and that's difficult to argue against in the wake of another knee scare. 

Minnesota needs Buxton in the lineup, however they can get him there, so long as he's healthy. They just need him to be better, and to find a way to mitigate these hideous slumps, even if that means taking a physical break. Of course the same goes without saying for Carlos Correa, who himself apparently dodged an injury scare last week but continues to not click at the plate while looking totally out of wack. Following a 1-for-4 on Sunday, his slash line sits at .216/.308/.392 and he's on pace to finish the season with 1.2 fWAR, which would be lower than Gary Sánchez posted in 2022.

On the pitching side, Jorge López has officially established himself as a big problem. His brilliant April, in which he allowed zero earned runs, has given way to a horrific May in which the right-hander has an 8.10 ERA and 1.042 OPS allowed. His struggles snowballed this past week, with López taking the loss on Tuesday when he gave up a go-ahead two-run homer, and then threatening to turn a lopsided win on its head Saturday, giving up three earned runs while recording no outs in the ninth.

Sadly, López looks every bit the discombobulated mess that he did in the second half for the Twins last year. His confidence has unraveled and his body language on the mound has been alarming. If there's a positive it's that his velocity and stuff look okay, suggesting the issues could be resolvable, but I'm not sure how anyone who's watched him much as a Twin can have any faith in his mental fortitude. 

Given the integral role López plays in the way this bullpen was designed, his implosion would have dire consequences if it continues this way. Durán cannot carry the entire load by himself (again). 

TRENDING STORYLINE

Reinforcements are on the way. The team announced after Sunday's game that Max Kepler and Royce Lewis will rejoin the team in Houston this week, with Garlick and Wallner going down to make room. Polanco also appears to be getting close after working out on the field alongside Kepler on Sunday.

Swapping in Kepler for Wallner isn't the most exciting move, given how well Wallner was going and how mediocre Kepler's been for the past 20 years or so, but there was a little choice. What IS exciting is the highly anticipated return of Lewis, who proclaimed himself to be at 120 percent, after posting an absurd .333/.371/.727 slash line with four homers and 10 RBIs in eight games at Triple-A.

The Twins badly need a spark. It's hard to imagine many individuals more equipped to provide it, on multiple levels, although you don't want to put too much pressure on the kid.

LOOKING AHEAD

If the Twins don't start playing better baseball in a hurry, this is going to get ugly. They're off to Houston for a three-game series versus the dynastic (albeit underperforming Astros) and then it's back home for four against the Guardians, who still may pose the greatest long-term threat in the division.

MONDAY, 5/29: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP J.P. France v. RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY, 5/30: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Brandon Bielak v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, 5/31: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Hunter Brown v. RHP Louie Varland
THURSDAY, 6/1: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Bibee v. RHP Pablo Lopez
FRIDAY, 6/2: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Hunter Gaddis v. RHP Bailey Ober
SATURDAY, 6/3: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – LHP Logan Allen v. RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY, 6/4: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill v. RHP Joe Ryan

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[mikelink45]

It's really hard to find something new to write about. It seems like each week we blunder into the same kind of poor performance following a hopeful one. This week our young players look like they're ready to go and then immediately after they get sent down for a player like Kepler who has disappointed for the last few years. The bullpen now has Jax, Pagan, and Lopez shaking our faith. And Stewart and Duran giving us our only two reliable arms. Good night

[USAFChief]

"Making Buxton's latest swoon even tougher to stomach is the growing inconvenience of his situation and its collateral implications."

 

Some of us have been saying this all year. Making Buxton a full time DH hurts the team, rather than making it stronger. It has the effect of making MAT your full time DH.

And it's made even worse when Buxton is turned into Rob Deer. One tool, rather than 5. 

 

[Otwins]

How long before the Twins consider a managerial change if the poor play continues and ticket sales lag.

[Nashvilletwin]

9 hours ago, Otwins said:

How long before the Twins consider a managerial change if the poor play continues and ticket sales lag.

With the Nephew in charge?  2026 at the earliest. By that time, none of our elite prospects will have come close to attaining their potential.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

45 minutes ago, Otwins said:

How long before the Twins consider a managerial change if the poor play continues and ticket sales lag.

Many managers might flee in terror at the thought of having to coach this lineup to somehow hit consistently, and cringe at playing Russian Roulette with this bargain basement back end of a bullpen.  It'd be interesting to see what Dusty, Tito, Counsell or Snitker could do in this clubhouse, but if the results were close to what we see now, we also shouldn't be surprised. 
Blame Rocco all you want, but he's stuck with a bunch of kids who are literally brilliant one day and complete knuckleheads the next.  When they ain't hurt, that is.  ☹️

[h2oface]

I want to add Joe Ryan as a highlight. Joe Cool just keeps on pitching so very well.

And it seems that Pablo Lopez gets off the hook here, but he has become a major disappointment, especially for what the FO gave up to get him, and since signing his extension. It would be nice to see him perform. He is currently our #4 or even #5 starter.

[TWTwinsFan]

Buxton bat leadoff, he'll have less pressure

 

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Many managers might flee in terror at the thought of having to coach this lineup to somehow hit consistently  ...

Baldelli won't flee. He has in a request to the FO for a 4th hitting coach.

[bighat]

It's 2022 all over again. Twins slowly sinking, no fire, no life, in an unbelievably winnable division. A few of us are still in denial, concocting wishful ideas like "If Kirilloff and Larnach just string together some good at-bats and stay healthy...." or "When Correa and Buxton heat up this team is going to be dangerous"... 

Alas, it appears most of us know by now that this is not a very good team and a turnaround is unlikely. We have seen with our own eyes that they're horrible to watch, the offense is incredibly anemic and there's no help in sight. 

The only "win" we can hope for is that this team doesn't do something horrific like trade Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee for JD Martinez at the break. We can't have any more Trevor Mahle trades that strip the farm system to help a big league club that's clearly not going anywhere. 

I wish I had more hope, but these past 1.5 years have clearly done a number on my psyche. Reading the rest of these comments I don't think I'm alone. Sad times! 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

I want to add Joe Ryan as a highlight. Joe Cool just keeps on pitching so very well.

And it seems that Pablo Lopez gets off the hook here, but he has become a major disappointment, especially for what the FO gave up to get him, and since signing his extension. It would be nice to see him perform. He is currently our #4 or even #5 starter.

Sad, but true. Ober, and maybe Varland > Lopez.  And to think it was only by the accident of injuries that Ober and Varland are getting their shot and showing their true talent.  If Mahle and Maeda were “healthy” they’d still be in the rotation regardless of how they were pitching. Just like several of our position players keeping the valuable ABs and innings away from our chomping at the bit prospects.

[Maybebaby]

Games are hard to watch right now the past few games when they get 2-3 runs behind in the early innings you can pretty much count them out.  I'll say this they have me conditioned! Very gloomy outlook at the present.

[Peter]

Need to have big week!!! If slide continues Detroit will take over division. Twins have too much talent to be this bad. But not getting hits in with bases loaded no outs/1 out and not getting any runs has cost them. Extremely difficult to watch them as well cheer for them. Need to get it together asap!

[mikelink45]

I know we had a retrospective on Aaron Hicks.  Good player not great.  Retrospectives are important for judging decisions so considering how important the BP is - wouldn't it be nice if it had Hendriks, Pressly, Graderol, Taylor, Cano?  How about a look back at these moves and the question comes to mind is how we could miss Cano and Hendriks.  What has happened to them that the Twins could not fix?

I am also interested in the rotation rankings.  I think Gray is our number one and wonder why we have not extended him.  Ryan is 1A and I love to see him pitch.  Then the question is for number three is it Ober over Lopez?  His performance has outshown Lopez since he has been called up.  Varland is easily the number 5 in this group.  And will Maeda force him out of the rotation or will we use Kenta in the BP?

[hitterscount]

53 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sad, but true. Ober, and maybe Varland > Lopez.  And to think it was only by the accident of injuries that Ober and Varland are getting their shot and showing their true talent.  If Mahle and Maeda were “healthy” they’d still be in the rotation regardless of how they were pitching. Just like several of our position players keeping the valuable ABs and innings away from our chomping at the bit prospects.

So true about Ober and Varland. I get the Mahle over Varland angle... but Ober clearly was better than Maeda coming out of spring. 

I don't know how other organizations operate but rewarding underperforming veterans for their mediocre/awful play has been a trademark for this team for a long time. We send down Wallner and keep Solano on the roster for Kepler and his uninspiring and lackluster play. Everyone knew what the results would be in signing Gallo and keeping Kepler... an absolute disaster. The FO has setup the homerun or bust approach. This offense is unwatchable. Have they won a game after trailing after the 5th inning? Seriously, they have zero fight. 

All of this with one of the better rotations in baseball. Is it the players or the manager that deserve the criticism for the play the last month and a half. Zero emotion, lack of execution and situational awareness, poor defense at the worst time, cannot hit with the bases loaded, BP meltdowns, it goes on and on. I guess you cannot fire the underperforming players so it is the manager that should take the heat. I cannot believe his contract is fully guaranteed, something needs to change soon and if it doesn't in the next two weeks brining in a different manager with new approaches should be considered.     

[tony&rodney]

If the plan last winter was to have Taylor in CF and Buxton as a DH, then the Twins are a handicapped team. MAT is a fine centerfielder and excellent base runner,  Kansas City did not trade him for salary relief or because the prospects they acquired are so promising. They did not need a reserve outfielder. The Twins need to figure out a configuration which makes sense in the field. They have their best outfielder as a DH, their best first baseman playing outfield, and some good DH guys playing in the field. The Twins have lost four series in a row and are 10-14 going into Houston before they come home to play four games versus Cleveland. These next seven somehow seem pretty important. Maybe the Twins can figure out where their players should play.

[Maybebaby]

We see all the talk by the media and the manager about the teams hitting woes.  Well they have these guys that can hit but are iffy fielders.  I for one would take an error now and then and give up some defense for any player that could hit .260 and K less than 2-3 times per game.  I'd like to hear the crack of the bat vs the who-o-o-o-o-o-sh of strike 3 yer out, twice an inning! 

 

[beterday]

Can someone here explain hitting to me.  I played baseball as a high schooler and couldn't hit very well; bunting, and opposite field  punch shot,  and run like crazy.  But I grew to be able to see a strike vs. a ball.  I don't understand the twins batting woes.  Seems to me every batter gets the "one pitch to hit" and 100% are either taken for a strike (72%) or swung on and missed (28%).  Ninety three mile per hour fastball "middle -  middle", as Dan Gladden would say, and nobody hits it, except the other team.  I've seen a lot of hitters put together a really good at bat where they foul off "nasty pitches", but those hitters are on the other team.  Farmer is typical, he shakes his head at a pitch 1/2 inch outside being called strike three and then next at bat swings at a curve 3 feet outside.  What is the conversation between Buxton and the hitting coach when he strikes out over and over again.  Is he really another Sano?

[Vanimal46]

Due to the division being dreadful, there is no urgency to change anything from the FO or Rocco’s rigid game plan.

This team desperately needs people who can hit a baseball consistently. Instead of letting a backup 1B/emergency only 2B in Donny Barrels off roster, they decide to send down Wallner who had 8 straight PAs getting on base. 

I’m glad to see Lewis back without any derailments on his rehab assignment. He’s in a tough spot. The fans certainly have put all of their eggs in the Lewis basket to be the spark plug this team desperately needs. 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Maybebaby said:

when they get 2-3 runs behind in the early innings you can pretty much count them out

What's additionally frustrating is that when they get 2-3 runs ahead in the late innings you can pretty much count them out as well.

Let's hope that they figure it out now, or that another sunk season makes change inescapable.

[Blyleven2011]

It's an oasis in the desert  , a complete mirage ...

Another week of extremely weak performers  but again starting pitching has been the highlight of the season so far ...

The extention of the manager was not the motivation this team needed  , we will never  win with this manager who can't motivate this team to a 10 game or more  winning streak   , we are living on the mirage of 2019 that he can be a winning manager when the players had career years  ...

[darwin22]

3 hours ago, Maybebaby said:

Games are hard to watch right now the past few games when they get 2-3 runs behind in the early innings you can pretty much count them out.  I'll say this they have me conditioned! Very gloomy outlook at the present.

I flipped the game on right at the moment Kirk's ducksnort "double" barely eluded Kirilloff's glove giving the Jays a 2-0 lead in the 2nd inning.  Said at the time, "well, the way we hit, this games over."  Sadly, I was right.

[John Belinski]

9 hours ago, Otwins said:

How long before the Twins consider a managerial change if the poor play continues and ticket sales lag.

The Twins front office just extended his contract so they would look foolish if they replaced him, but they looked foolish when they extended him.

[John Belinski]

8 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Many managers might flee in terror at the thought of having to coach this lineup to somehow hit consistently, and cringe at playing Russian Roulette with this bargain basement back end of a bullpen.  It'd be interesting to see what Dusty, Tito, Counsell or Snitker could do in this clubhouse, but if the results were close to what we see now, we also shouldn't be surprised. 
Blame Rocco all you want, but he's stuck with a bunch of kids who are literally brilliant one day and complete knuckleheads the next.  When they ain't hurt, that is.  ☹️

The team really needs leadership and it just doesn't seem like Rocco can provide it plus no player seems like a leader. The 2 high paid players should be expected to provide leadership, but have not shown any leadership due to poor hitting. Buck is really a part time player and Correa is hitting about .200.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, John Belinski said:

The Twins front office just extended his contract so they would look foolish if they replaced him, but they looked foolish when they extended him.

They extended him before last season, and for some reason didn't do a press release.  We're only learning of it now.

[BsuNemo]

13 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Many managers might flee in terror at the thought of having to coach this lineup to somehow hit consistently, and cringe at playing Russian Roulette with this bargain basement back end of a bullpen.  It'd be interesting to see what Dusty, Tito, Counsell or Snitker could do in this clubhouse, but if the results were close to what we see now, we also shouldn't be surprised. 
Blame Rocco all you want, but he's stuck with a bunch of kids who are literally brilliant one day and complete knuckleheads the next.  When they ain't hurt, that is.  ☹️

They weren't like that in the minors and many of them start off solid in the bigs. His philosophy of home run or bust kills these kids. Top teams in the league make contact. We're the worst at it. That's only partially a player issue. 

[I wish the twins were good]

Tigers in the playoffs would be a fun story. I'm rooting against the Twins at this point.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

3 hours ago, BsuNemo said:

His philosophy of home run or bust kills these kids.

How do we know this is "his philosophy?"  Is that the way he played the game? His career numbers don't really point to that approach.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

8 hours ago, John Belinski said:

The team really needs leadership and it just doesn't seem like Rocco can provide it plus no player seems like a leader. The 2 high paid players should be expected to provide leadership, but have not shown any leadership due to poor hitting.

Perhaps we should be careful in judging how much leadership this team has since none of us are present in the clubhouse (and elsewhere) when the doors are closed (that said, _everyone_ could tell the White Sox had a leadership problem last year 😉).

Hitting the ball well is just hitting the ball well.  An example of leadership is Correa keeping his head up and playing magnificent defense every damn day in spite of his present difficulties in the batter's box. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I think Gray is our number one and wonder why we have not extended him.

Ummmm, because he wants to test the market?

But seriously, if the Twins were trying to engage Gray in extension talks right now, they certainly wouldn't be talking about it, and _we_ would be the very last people to know.