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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/22 through Sun, 5/28
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 27-26)
Run Differential Last Week: -1 (Overall: +42)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 48 | SF 4, MIN 1: Ober Faceplants, Bats Can't Pick Him Up
Game 49 | SF 4, MIN 3: Offense and Bullpen Combine for Brutal Loss
Game 50 | MIN 7, SF 1: Twins Avoid Sweep in Error-filled Blowout
Game 51 | TOR 3, MIN 1: Lineup Flounders Again as Slump Persists
Game 52 | MIN 9, TOR 7: Twins Ride Rookies, Willi Castro to Big Win
Game 53 | TOR 3, MIN 0: Another Embarrassing No-Show from Offense
NEWS & NOTES
The Twins are playing really badly right now, and it's getting worse not better.
While one might've made an argument in the previous week that bad umpire calls and unfortunate breaks were key factors in letting several winnable games slip away, this past week was marked by undeniably poor play from front to back. Even Minnesota's two victories weren't all that impressive, with both sleepy teams kicking the ball around on Wednesday and the Twins nearly blowing a huge lead on Saturday.
They need to start picking it up and they need to stop wasting time, as the sub-.500 Tigers are suddenly nipping at their heels, one game behind in the Central. It would be nice if the good news would begin to eclipse the bad news on the health front, but we're not there yet.
The stalling start to Trevor Larnach's career sadly continues; the outfielder has now landed on the injured list due to a severe bout with pneumonia. The former first-round draft pick has seen his past two seasons majorly diminished by injuries, and is trying to finally establish himself at the big-league level. He's struggled to produce in sustained fashion for the Twins this year and now he's going to be down for awhile, which is especially unfavorable for Larnach given how well his replacement fared in a brief window.
HIGHLIGHTS
Let's start there: Matt Wallner delivered a definitive jolt for this lineup. He provided one of the best individual offensive performances from a Twin all season on Saturday when he went 4-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs, also gunning down a runner at second on a laser-beam throw. Wallner followed by going 2-for-2 with two walks on Sunday, reaching base in all eight plate appearances between the two games.
The organization's reigning Minor League Player of the Year finally flashed his upside in a big way on the MLB stage, and it came at a crucial time, although he ironically was optioned after Sunday's game due to logistical factors.
The stumbling Twins have been begging for someone to step up, and it's been the rookies and role player answering the call. Wallner wasn't alone over the weekend.
Edouard Julien joined the fun on Saturday with three hits, including two doubles and a home run. Earlier in the week he went deep against San Francisco, and he sprinkled in four walks over his six starts. Amid some rookie lapses in the field and on the basepaths, Julien's biggest strengths were on display – namely, a disciplined plate approach and huge raw power to the opposite side and to left-center specifically.
Also contributing to Saturday's night-run outburst (nearly all of which ended up being needed) was Willi Castro, who is himself making a strong case on the fringe of the roster with an impact that makes him "disturbingly valuable," as one might say.
While the limitations of his game will prevent anyone from confusing him for a star, Castro's defensive versatility and ability to put together an occasion power-fueled hot stretch at the plate – as we've seen of late – makes him a solid asset, and puts him in good position to survive some tough upcoming roster decisions.
Much like in the lineup, a few key fixtures are keeping the bullpen afloat while others lapse and languish. The rising star of the unit is Brock Stewart, whose out-of-nowhere emergence as essentially the team's most trusted setup man has been life-saving for a spiraling relief corps.
Stewart still has yet to be charged with a run through 14 appearances, and he pulled off his biggest high-stakes acrobatic act yet on Saturday, averting disaster by recording three outs to fend off an inherited late threat against Toronto. The outing left him with the best WPA in the Twins bullpen (0.86), despite his arriving nearly a month into the season.
Yes, Stewart's WPA bests even Jhoan Duran, but there's no doubting who is the king of this unit. While less unexpected, Duran's ongoing dominance is the steady foundation keeping the Twins bullpen from collapse. He notched four strikeouts over 1 ⅔ clean innings this past week, adding to his illustrious imprint in the record books. He set a new franchise record by reaching 104.6 MPH with his fastball on Wednesday, and also unleashed several triple-digit splitters in the same outing.
Given how routine it has become, I almost have to remind myself from time to time: this is not normal. This is special. Duran is an incredibly rare breed and while there is a great deal of improvement needed around him in the bullpen, you can't ask for a better centerpiece.
LOWLIGHTS
As this lineup keeps displaying a consistent sense of explosiveness and potency, it's increasingly difficult to look past the player who's supposed to be its beating heart. Byron Buxton shook off some renewed knee soreness to start all six games last week, and he did hit a home run on Tuesday, but overall he was a net negative, finishing 4-for-25 with the following production outside of his homer: three singles, no runs scored, no RBIs, no walks, 10 strikeouts.
We all know that Buxton is an inherently streaky player, and to some extent, analyzing him in the midst of a downswing like this is bound to underplay his value. But that sort of hints at the core point here, which is that Buxton's hot streaks aren't outweighing his slumps to the extent this team needs them to. Yes, he leads the team's position players in Win Probability Added – a faint accomplishment on this squad – thanks to some huge moments, but too often those moments feel like oases in a desert of surrounding emptiness.
Last week was a perfect example. Buxton came through with the homer but otherwise yielded a flurry of outs, stranded runners, and low-quality at-bats. He looks like he's flat-out guessing on almost every pitch, with no plan or protocol in the box.
Making Buxton's latest swoon even tougher to stomach is the growing inconvenience of his situation and its collateral implications.
As the offense continues to repeatedly short-circuit and the defensive miscues mount, it gets harder and harder to ignore the elephant the room: accommodating Buxton's needs means the Twins are putting one of their best defensive players at DH everyday while in turn being forced to run out sub-par hitters (i.e. Michael A. Taylor, who went 2-for-19 with 12 strikeouts last week) and make tough defensive concessions like playing Castro in center field or Julien at second base.
Alas, the situation shows no signs of changing. By all accounts, the Twins feel that this arrangement is the only way to keep Buxton on the field, and that's difficult to argue against in the wake of another knee scare.
Minnesota needs Buxton in the lineup, however they can get him there, so long as he's healthy. They just need him to be better, and to find a way to mitigate these hideous slumps, even if that means taking a physical break. Of course the same goes without saying for Carlos Correa, who himself apparently dodged an injury scare last week but continues to not click at the plate while looking totally out of wack. Following a 1-for-4 on Sunday, his slash line sits at .216/.308/.392 and he's on pace to finish the season with 1.2 fWAR, which would be lower than Gary Sánchez posted in 2022.
On the pitching side, Jorge López has officially established himself as a big problem. His brilliant April, in which he allowed zero earned runs, has given way to a horrific May in which the right-hander has an 8.10 ERA and 1.042 OPS allowed. His struggles snowballed this past week, with López taking the loss on Tuesday when he gave up a go-ahead two-run homer, and then threatening to turn a lopsided win on its head Saturday, giving up three earned runs while recording no outs in the ninth.
Sadly, López looks every bit the discombobulated mess that he did in the second half for the Twins last year. His confidence has unraveled and his body language on the mound has been alarming. If there's a positive it's that his velocity and stuff look okay, suggesting the issues could be resolvable, but I'm not sure how anyone who's watched him much as a Twin can have any faith in his mental fortitude.
Given the integral role López plays in the way this bullpen was designed, his implosion would have dire consequences if it continues this way. Durán cannot carry the entire load by himself (again).
TRENDING STORYLINE
Reinforcements are on the way. The team announced after Sunday's game that Max Kepler and Royce Lewis will rejoin the team in Houston this week, with Garlick and Wallner going down to make room. Polanco also appears to be getting close after working out on the field alongside Kepler on Sunday.
Swapping in Kepler for Wallner isn't the most exciting move, given how well Wallner was going and how mediocre Kepler's been for the past 20 years or so, but there was a little choice. What IS exciting is the highly anticipated return of Lewis, who proclaimed himself to be at 120 percent, after posting an absurd .333/.371/.727 slash line with four homers and 10 RBIs in eight games at Triple-A.
The Twins badly need a spark. It's hard to imagine many individuals more equipped to provide it, on multiple levels, although you don't want to put too much pressure on the kid.
LOOKING AHEAD
If the Twins don't start playing better baseball in a hurry, this is going to get ugly. They're off to Houston for a three-game series versus the dynastic (albeit underperforming Astros) and then it's back home for four against the Guardians, who still may pose the greatest long-term threat in the division.
MONDAY, 5/29: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP J.P. France v. RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY, 5/30: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Brandon Bielak v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, 5/31: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Hunter Brown v. RHP Louie Varland
THURSDAY, 6/1: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Bibee v. RHP Pablo Lopez
FRIDAY, 6/2: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Hunter Gaddis v. RHP Bailey Ober
SATURDAY, 6/3: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – LHP Logan Allen v. RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY, 6/4: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill v. RHP Joe Ryan
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- mikelink45, Clare and verninski
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