Have the Twins Found Value in Trading for Starters?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins were dealt an unfortunate blow a few days ago when it was announced that Tyler Mahle would miss the remainder of the season. He needs Tommy John surgery. While he had just recently come off of the injured list when acquired, it’s seemingly been part of a strategical way to acquire talent. Does it have merit though?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to creating a pitching pipeline and certain amount of quality depth, there are roughly three ways for an organization to attack that idea. Derek Falvey had success in Cleveland by developing internal drafted talent. The goal in bringing him to Minnesota was replicating that sort of success. It’s the most cost effective plan of action, and arguably the most controllable.

Louie Varland and Bailey Ober have been hits in that regard, but they were Day 3 draft picks and there isn’t much else to hang a hat on for the front office. Matt Canterino and Jordan Balazovic types have been internal prospects, but neither has yet to pan out, and others such as Cole Sands or Brent Headrick have substantially lower ceilings.

A second avenue would be through paying free agents. No matter how much money the Twins choose to offer, they would need to beat out other suitors and present a compelling argument for arms to come to the colder Midwest. Offering a boatload to Carlos Rodon may not have been enough to change his mind, and even the Nathan Eovaldi types want to play in bigger markets or more ideal pitching conditions.

That leads us to a third avenue, and it’s one the Twins have explored prominently. By adding arms through a trade, the front office can look to find assets cast off by other teams, and while at times that’s for health reasons, it doesn’t always have to be.

Sonny Gray was a premium acquisition for Minnesota, and he cost a first-round draft pick in the form of Chase Petty. Joe Ryan was quite the opposite in that the Rays were willing to part with him for an aging Nelson Cruz in hopes of making an extended postseason run. Recently though, the run on injured pitchers has provoked this question. Is there a certain value to rolling the dice on a questionable arm?

Chris Paddack was likely the reason that Minnesota flipped Taylor Rogers to the Padres just before Opening Day last season. He had undergone Tommy John surgery previously, and there were arm concerns, but his team control and past success was enticing for a closer who was on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injury on his own.

It’s not entirely unlike the situation in which the Twins got involved trading Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers when the Red Sox parted with Mookie Betts. They lost a flame-throwing reliever, but got an established starter in Kenta Maeda. Los Angeles drafted his contract in a way that protected them from his arm concerns, and after the Twins saw him nearly win a Cy Young in 2020, they watched the blow out come to fruition.

This is a talking point again with the fallout from Tyler Mahle. Sure, they traded infielders Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (as well as Steven Hajjar) for the Reds starter, but the circumstances suggested to make that deal 100 out of 100 times. Steer was a multi-position prospect, and Encarnacion-Strand seems to be positionless prospect, with very good bats. However, the Twins needed a playoff arm, and Mahle fit the bill. They didn’t need to give up one of their premium prospects for someone that could be a number two, and his eventual elbow injury was unlikely related to the shoulder fatigue he dealt with in 2022.

Driveline founder Kyle Boddy recently put together a great thread on this topic after the Rays lost Drew Rasmussen to an elbow injury. They had already suffered the same fate for Jeffrey Springs this season, and it causes plenty to wonder if they are acquiring diminished assets. Instead, Boddy highlights that it is a negotiating tactic in looking to generate present value.

One of the most important things Boddy states is that “the goal of a team isn’t to ensure everyone stays healthy 100% of the time.” That level of thinking would be largely impossible. What an organization is attempting to do, and the Twins accomplished this year, is to create depth through a funnel of players that can continue to provide opportunity for the organization to win big-league ballgames.

The reality is that there is always going to be a level of risk associated with the acquisition of any player. It’s lowest through the draft from a financial outlay, but it’s highest there in that the potential future gain remains insurmountable. Paying players on the free-agent market can lead to dollars spent for little return, and you’re always dealing with a player allowed to leave for one reason or another. In trades, it’s about understanding what your organization values in relation to the one an individual is coming from, and trying to be on the right side of that more often than not.

At no point is it fair to evaluate if a trade was good based on how it works out. You can discuss the value gained or lost by a team, but the process leading to the point of a swap is where every organization in baseball should be looking to get it right.

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[Blyleven2011]

The good ...

Sonny Gray has been a good trade but gave up chase petty , Lopez  has been  okay but recently has lost his pin point control  from his first five starts and cost us ( major leaguer  ) arreaz a hitting machine ...

The bad however you look at it , acquired for post season  run ...

Dyson the vacuum cleaner totally sucked  in 2019 as he experienced  injury right from the get go and cost the twins 3 fringe prospects at the deadline  ...

Mahle  had injury concerns and we traded at deadline for him , he pitched a few good starts and became injured again , this season he's back and had some starts ( 5 ) with alittle success  but lost to TJ surgery  and the cost was Steer ( playing in majors with Cincinnati  ) , Encarnacion-Strand  a good looking hitter in minors and hajjar a left handed pitcher ...

More bad , acquired during off season  ...

Maeda was another injury risk and the cost was graterol ... we got a short season of good pitching from maeda in 2020 , 2021 we got ( 21 ) starts that turned out to be mediocre pitching before his TJ surgery  ...

Paddock was injury prone and we traded Roger's and Rooker and got Paddock and Pagan  in return , Paddock pitched decently to start the 2022 season but fell to his second  TJ  surgery  , pagan was a disaster in his first season with the twins and nobody  ( twins fans ) wanted him back for 2023 ...

The cost or risk however you look at it was significant , have any of the trades helped the twins , the jury is still out on some but closed on others  ...

The question is  , is the FO  the smartest people in the room  ...

[KirbyDome89]

Varland has 49 career innings, and he's sitting at a 5.13 FIP right now. Ober is one more extended IL stint away from serious bullpen consideration. Those are the developmental hits? 

Ryan is the only swap that sticks out as "value," and it took a TSF 2.0 for that deal to become a reality.

The constant need to trade for short term pitching solutions isn't something I'd celebrate. There will always be a rationale for why moves are made, that doesn't mean those decisions were the right ones, i.e. it's entirely fair to evaluate these swaps based on how they work out. 

 

[IaBeanCounter]

"have any of the trades helped the twins"

Ryan for Cruz has definitely helped the Twins. 

[LastOnePicked]

"At no point is it fair to evaluate if a trade was good based on how it works out."

Respectfully Ted, just pause, stop for a moment, and think about this statement. 

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Varland has 49 career innings, and he's sitting at a 5.13 FIP right now. Ober is one more extended IL stint away from serious bullpen consideration. Those are the developmental hits? 

Ryan is the only swap that sticks out as "value," and it took a TSF 2.0 for that deal to become a reality.

The constant need to trade for short term pitching solutions isn't something I'd celebrate. There will always be a rationale for why moves are made, that doesn't mean those decisions were the right ones, i.e. it's entirely fair to evaluate these swaps based on how they work out. 

 

Sonny Gray is in the discussion to be the best pitcher in baseball this year, if that doesn't count as "value" I don't know what does.  

For all the whining about the Twins not having ace pitching, Ryan and Gray are in the Top 10 in the MLB in pitching in basically every major category.  

[Minny505]

Right now the Twins are certainly on the positive side of the WAR ledger when it comes to trading for pitchers over the last 7+ years.

If the Twins are going to trade for pitchers, might as well be for pitchers with an injury history. Why? Because they often have their value depressed due to that history, but really, 98% of pitchers carry equal injury risk from this minute forward. 

For every Mahle there is a Gray. For every Paddack there is a Maeda. For every Alcala, there is a Duran.

And occasionally you snag a Ryan or a SWR along the way as well.

[KirbyDome89]

28 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Sonny Gray is in the discussion to be the best pitcher in baseball this year, if that doesn't count as "value" I don't know what does.  

For all the whining about the Twins not having ace pitching, Ryan and Gray are in the Top 10 in the MLB in pitching in basically every major category.  

He's had a great start; it's also May 16th. The Twins had to ship off a 1st round draft pick for two seasons of Gray. If value is the priority, I'm skeptical that controllable talent for short term rentals is the best way to find it. Then there's the whole sustainability issue to boot. 

Not sure where I was whining about ace pitching.

[mikelink45]

Not sure I buy this promotional piece.  I am sure the FO likes it.  But Maeda has a short season success and nothing else.  Would we like Brusdar in the BP?  We cut Yennier Cano - which is better so far Lopez or Cano?  Mahle cost two good prospects who look like they will have some good careers in the majors - not a good trade even if it felt like it at the time.  Put them with Ryan Pressly and Liam Hendriks and we have a great pen. But we might not have Duran.  

Pablo Lopez is right at his career mark - 2 - 2 (career 30 - 33)  4.00 era (career 3.94)  Is he worth Arraez?  I don't know , but don't think so.  

We had Tyler Wells, he never pitched for the Twins, but now is with the Orioles and  3 - 1 with 1.7 WAR so far this season.  We lost him in Rule 5.  

Why did Martin Perez look so bad for us?  

Trading is good and interesting, so is developing your own arms.  There is a problem when we overstate one aspect of a teams approach. 

[weitz41]

Maybe this is more about a team's completive model.

One example would be the Mets. They are buying time for their farms system to provide them with players. Their previous FO traded away a lot of prospect capital to try and compete. They are also in a much tougher division. So being completive is much more difficult.

Another would be the Padres. The majority of their starting pitchers and starting position players the last two season have come to them via trades. Plenty of extensions and a few free agents. They emptied their farm system and doubled their payroll to put this team together. I have a hard time believing this way is sustainable. 

Then there's teams like the Guardians and Orioles. IF they had say traded or signed..In the Orioles case Luis Castillo and Zach Wheeler..In the Guardians case Freddy Freeman and Hunter Renfro. Who may be the best teams in MLB right now?

Our Twins seem to be doing a little bit or all of these things. Meaning trades, FA signings and prospects. Some of these trades are going to be clear wins and losses. Maybe Gallo hits a buck eighty this season. Maybe he hit two forty with 50 homers. Maybe AK becomes the player I thought he was going to be three years ago. Maybe Lewis never becomes a full time MLB player. 

I like the 3-pronged approach. I don't want a stretched payroll where we can't keep our guys because we can't afford them. I also don't want to wait 5-10 years between windows. Give me a team that is completive and If 1 or 2 players have career years, we have a chance at something special.

[Brandon]

I think the point of this article is we have a pretty good rotation and it was made through trades mostly.  So looking at what we got vs what we gave up.

We got:

Mahle

Gray

Ryan / Strottman

Lopez

Paddack / Pagan

Maeda

Pablo Lopez and extension.

to get this we gave up:

Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and Hajjar

Petty

Nelson Cruz

Cade Povich / Yenner Cano and 2 others

1 year of Rogers, Rooker

Brusdar Graterol.  

Arreaz
 

Looking at these trades as a whole I prefer what we got over what we gave up.  Steer is redundant Encarnacion too but his bat seems more potent, several prospects are years away. Nelson Cruz is about done.  He is having a nice season so far this year but…and loosing Graterol hurts.  With the injuries to Maeda the trade is almost even but it’s still gotta be in our favor.  2020 was a playoff season so the Cy Young type showing counts more IMO even if it is a short season..  Arreaz is off to a great start this season  His knees seem to be better than advertised.  I guess if we want to look into trades further we could count the Berrios for Martin and Woods-Richardson trade.

The pieces that Hurt are Arreaz, Encarnacion-Strand, Graterol to an extent, and maybe Petty and that’s it.  I feel like Gray will surpass what Petty will provide.  So overall still happy with the trades.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He's had a great start; it's also May 16th. The Twins had to ship off a 1st round draft pick for two seasons of Gray. If value is the priority, I'm skeptical that controllable talent for short term rentals is the best way to find it. Then there's the whole sustainability issue to boot. 

Not sure where I was whining about ace pitching.

I wasn't calling you specifically on the whining, but the notion the Twins have a slew of "#3 starters" has been a talking point for awhile now. 

While you have a very valid point that it is early, Gray has pitched like an ace on a first place team.   When he's healthy Sonny Gray is a damn good pitcher.   That being said, I am a huge fan of Petty's potential.  On the other hand, how many starting pitching prospects have the Twins had in the last two decades who were highly touted and never accumulated as much WAR in their career as Gray has in the first 6 weeks of the season?  The list spans more than a handful. 

[I wish the twins were good]

Strategical?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

I wasn't calling you specifically on the whining, but the notion the Twins have a slew of "#3 starters" has been a talking point for awhile now. 

While you have a very valid point that it is early, Gray has pitched like an ace on a first place team.   When he's healthy Sonny Gray is a damn good pitcher.   That being said, I am a huge fan of Petty's potential.  On the other hand, how many starting pitching prospects have the Twins had in the last two decades who were highly touted and never accumulated as much WAR in their career as Gray has in the first 6 weeks of the season?  The list spans more than a handful. 

Yeah I'm not arguing that Gray isn't a good pitcher. 

You're right, and I'm not hoarding prospects here, I just don't think acquiring all 5 of your opening day starters via trade in a 2-3 year period is exploiting untapped value. To me it signifies a lack of development and a rigid approach to FA which is why I don't think we should celebrate it. 

[DocBauer]

Having a hard time with some of this. So Falvey gets credit for helping Cleveland build a pitching pipeline. But a number of the arms acquired were done so via trade from other teams, not to mention several that were mid round draft choices that were developed beyond initial expectation. But acquiring Ryan from the Rays as a milb pitcher...even though he's been better "developed" since joining the Twins...is NOT part of pitching development. The development of Ober...who has very respectable if not excellent numbers...is also not noteworthy as he could suffer an injury setback at any moment. Umm...isn't that true for ANY pitcher? His rebuilt mechanics allowed him to throw ALL of 2021 and develop, even though he was nursed a bit. He was great early and late in 2022, surrounded by a lower body muscle injury...hernia? Not sure I ever heard....and looks healthy and great this season. Varland...the 2 time Twins milb pitcher of the year...has an average ERA as he's been bit some by the HR ball. But he's averaging 9+ K per IP at the ML level with an acceptable 1.22 WHIP and OK .255 BA as a ROOKIE with 9 GS, 5 of which are on the road I believe, including 2 at Yankee stadium. What's not to like in his brief career and the stuff and potential he's shown so far? 

And, of course, we just won't talk about trades and development for arms like Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and some other young arms just beginning their careers or who haven't reached the ML just yet.

So let's go back to the OP.

I LOVED the Petty draft selection. And he might turn out to be a good/great ML arm. But unless you have a crystal ball that sees in to the future, how could anyone predict greatness from the most volatile of draft selections, a HS pitcher, vs adding a top of the rotation arm in Gray? He was excellent in 2022 when healthy. He's been even better this year. The only knock on him is being 33yo and needing too many pitches sometimes to get his high K numbers. But I'd love to have him for another year or two. Guy is good, and a leader as well as a performer.

Graterol for Maeda? I'd do that all day long. Graterol is young enough to improve, but his career numbers are those of an OK, solid BP arm. The Twins got a Cy Young worthy season in a great, fun 2020. I'd make that trade any day of the week. Just stinks his elbow gave out as his ST in 2021 had him looking as good or better.

Pablo Lopez is not some run of the mill arm. He's pretty damn good. And he's got room to be even better. And it cost us a fan favorite and great hitter in Arraez. And you won't find a bigger fan of Luis than me. And I miss him. But Miami isn't exactly raking with him in the lineup. And the Twins were going to have to trade at least 1, if not more, of their infielders in the near future. Again, I'd make this trade over and over again.

Mahle was a talented, relatively young, quality SP who's numbers were better outside of Cincinnati. It was a smart trade. I say that really liking all 3 prospects sent out! I thought Steer might be a great super utility player. I thought ECS had a chance to be a really good DH and backup 1B. I liked Povich better than Hajjar, but I liked his potential. Mahle, lest we remind ourselves, had ZERO issues with his shoulder after multiple doctor exams and a couple MRI's. And he looked just fine to begin this season. He even looked good in his 4 innings before being pulled out due to "discomfort". Who knew his elbow would blow out like that? They traded 3 solid prospects with a future for a really good arm who hadn't reached it's full potential yet. Prospects that might have been behind other equally talented prospects. This may turn out to be a loss, but it was a good and smart move at the time.

Paddack and Pagan vs Rogers and Rooker. I wouldn't have made that deal. I wanted to keep Rogers and add an arm to work with him. This didn't turn out right for anyone. Crap happens. Paddack looked great before his elbow gave out. We know what Pagan did. Rogers, like Paddack, was great early. Rogers, unfortunately for him, looks like a shadow of his former self. And while I still don't trust him, Pagan has actually looked pretty damn good past his initial 6 run blow-up to begin the season. And PLEASE, no more "Rooker was a mistake" arguements after he washed out with 3 teams before a good start to 2023 with the hapless A's. This trade comes down to a full recovery from Paddack. If he does so, even as a mid rotation SP, ultimately, the Twins "win" this trade, for whatever its worth. 

So here we are at last. The Twins have one of the best rotations in all of baseball as we reach the quarter mark. And they've done so already losing Mahle, and Maeda...at least for the short term...and we have a potential roster crunch in regard to prospect player depth. And we BEGAN the season 7 SP deep before injury. And in all of this....STILL having player depth despite trades...we have to ask if we've found value in trading for pitching talent?

The FO hasn't been perfect. But they've done a hell of a job to put this together, without seemingly sacrificing the future. I'm just knocking on wood for no more serious arm injuries and just letting all the pen arms fight it out for dominance. We get a proven 6 or 7 deep with the 8 spot being a rotating piece, this staff will lead us to 90+ wins.

[tony&rodney]

Yes, they have their top three starting pitchers via trade and before injuries the entire rotation had been acquired via trade. I'm not sure one can do any better than 5/5 to start a season.

[IndianaTwin]

You forgot the fourth option, which is "all of the above." None of the three is likely to be sustainable on its own.

[SwainZag]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah I'm not arguing that Gray isn't a good pitcher. 

You're right, and I'm not hoarding prospects here, I just don't think acquiring all 5 of your opening day starters via trade in a 2-3 year period is exploiting untapped value. To me it signifies a lack of development and a rigid approach to FA which is why I don't think we should celebrate it. 

Does it matter though?  If the FO can acquire a guy like...Ryan, who has no ML experience and turn him into a front line pitcher, isn't it finding value?  Does it matter how they acquired them?  How many teams out there has a stable of starting pitchers they drafted and developed?  Atlanta and Tampa have done very well in that regard, but it's not really the norm.

I do think there was a big gap in developing starting pitching from this franchise, but if for whatever reason your franchise is just lackluster in developing draft picks into ML starting pitching....what's the downside if they can develop bats or can trade young assets to acquire it?

The Twins are Top 5 in every major pitching category this season and they only have 4 pitchers over the age of 31.  2/3 of all the pitchers they have used this year are 28 or younger.  If you don't want to celebrate the way they develop pitchers that's fine, but so far they have put together a very fine pitching staff, and not 1 person signed via big money free agent splash.  In the long run it's probably not sustainable, but it's really hard to argue with current results.

[UK Twin]

Whether they are free agent signings or acquired via trade, there's always an element of risk when it comes to SP's. With FA you're giving long contracts and lots of dollars and with trades you're giving away top prospects. I'd much rather go down the route the Twins are going. Yankees are paying Rodon a fortune to sit on the IL and they're going to be stuck with him until he's 36.

Yes Mahle hasn't worked out at all, but I liked the trade at the time. And the Paddack/Pagan/Rogers/Rooker trade hasn't really worked out for anyone right now. But Pagan has been an improvement this year and Paddack could still work out for us. 

The Gray trade has worked out just fine. We did have to give up Petty, but the way he's pitching right now makes it worthwhile if he stays healthy. The Ryan/Cruz trade is a huge steal for the Twins. He's still only 26, he's under team control until 2027 and his career ERA is 3.30. We traded 2 months of a 41 year old Nelson Cruz for him (I know there were 2 other players involved but they've done nothing in the majors of note). I loved Cruz but Ryan is pitching like an ace right now and will anchor the Twins rotation for years to come.

[NotAboutWinning]

Warren Buffet has made a lot of $$$ being a value investor. I think it is a very valid way to approach building a pitch in staff as well!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The constant need to trade for short term pitching solutions isn't something I'd celebrate

They will run out of good players if they continue trading controllable talent for short term pitching (Ryan is an exception to the other four). They do have a good rotation this year, but it is unsustainable, they will literally run out of players if they try to maintain a good rotation this way. 

[saviking]

Only issue is the injury bug ...

[Woof Bronzer]

19 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

"At no point is it fair to evaluate if a trade was good based on how it works out."

Respectfully Ted, just pause, stop for a moment, and think about this statement. 

"At no point is it fair to evaluate a front office based on how the team performs."

"At no point is it fair to evaluate a player based on his statistics."

The most damaging legacy of the Extreme Sabermetrics Era is going to be the idea that process is more important than results.  

[mickster]

On 5/16/2023 at 11:11 AM, Blyleven2011 said:

The good ...

Sonny Gray has been a good trade but gave up chase petty , Lopez  has been  okay but recently has lost his pin point control  from his first five starts and cost us ( major leaguer  ) arreaz a hitting machine ...

The bad however you look at it , acquired for post season  run ...

Dyson the vacuum cleaner totally sucked  in 2019 as he experienced  injury right from the get go and cost the twins 3 fringe prospects at the deadline  ...

Mahle  had injury concerns and we traded at deadline for him , he pitched a few good starts and became injured again , this season he's back and had some starts ( 5 ) with alittle success  but lost to TJ surgery  and the cost was Steer ( playing in majors with Cincinnati  ) , Encarnacion-Strand  a good looking hitter in minors and hajjar a left handed pitcher ...

More bad , acquired during off season  ...

Maeda was another injury risk and the cost was graterol ... we got a short season of good pitching from maeda in 2020 , 2021 we got ( 21 ) starts that turned out to be mediocre pitching before his TJ surgery  ...

Paddock was injury prone and we traded Roger's and Rooker and got Paddock and Pagan  in return , Paddock pitched decently to start the 2022 season but fell to his second  TJ  surgery  , pagan was a disaster in his first season with the twins and nobody  ( twins fans ) wanted him back for 2023 ...

The cost or risk however you look at it was significant , have any of the trades helped the twins , the jury is still out on some but closed on others  ...

The question is  , is the FO  the smartest people in the room  ...

The agree on the Sony Gray deal - but I want to talk about the bad

 

Dyson - 100% agree

Mahle - I would still do that trade.   Twins have a logham of infielders and so parting with a couple was a good dael.

Maeda - tough one.   Graterol is good and bad,  Trade looked really good early, then now unsure.  But I would say a wash.

Paddock - Rooker makes this look rough now, but NO ONE saw that coming.  This will depend on how Paddock rebounds.   I like the trade, just the timing was not good.

Lopez - for Areaz is a deal you make every time it is offered.

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Does it matter though?  If the FO can acquire a guy like...Ryan, who has no ML experience and turn him into a front line pitcher, isn't it finding value?  Does it matter how they acquired them?  How many teams out there has a stable of starting pitchers they drafted and developed?  Atlanta and Tampa have done very well in that regard, but it's not really the norm.

I do think there was a big gap in developing starting pitching from this franchise, but if for whatever reason your franchise is just lackluster in developing draft picks into ML starting pitching....what's the downside if they can develop bats or can trade young assets to acquire it?

The Twins are Top 5 in every major pitching category this season and they only have 4 pitchers over the age of 31.  2/3 of all the pitchers they have used this year are 28 or younger.  If you don't want to celebrate the way they develop pitchers that's fine, but so far they have put together a very fine pitching staff, and not 1 person signed via big money free agent splash.  In the long run it's probably not sustainable, but it's really hard to argue with current results.

Yeah, it should matter how/why these guys are acquired, unless you think slogging through another last place finish a la 2021, and hoping you can flip a 41 year old DH for a young SP is repeatable. The Twins didn't turn Ryan into anything, he was a finished product when they got him. It was a great trade, and I've already said he's valuable, but that deal is a one-off.

The Twins don't have to have a stable of starting pitchers developed, but we're 7 years deep at this point and we're crossing our fingers on a guy who has never shown the ability to stay healthy and we're declaring Varland a success with fewer than 50 career IP. There's a middle ground somewhere between that and "be the Rays," right?

Your farm system is a finite resource, and they aren't just giving up bats; pitching went out the door in the deals for Maeda, Mahle, and Gray. What's the downside to relying on trades? By definition you're giving up talent to acquire talent, hence my pushback against idea that this team is mining value. 

Give me sustainable, long term results over 6 weeks to open the season I guess. 

[KirbyDome89]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Having a hard time with some of this. So Falvey gets credit for helping Cleveland build a pitching pipeline. But a number of the arms acquired were done so via trade from other teams, not to mention several that were mid round draft choices that were developed beyond initial expectation. But acquiring Ryan from the Rays as a milb pitcher...even though he's been better "developed" since joining the Twins...is NOT part of pitching development. The development of Ober...who has very respectable if not excellent numbers...is also not noteworthy as he could suffer an injury setback at any moment. Umm...isn't that true for ANY pitcher? His rebuilt mechanics allowed him to throw ALL of 2021 and develop, even though he was nursed a bit. He was great early and late in 2022, surrounded by a lower body muscle injury...hernia? Not sure I ever heard....and looks healthy and great this season. Varland...the 2 time Twins milb pitcher of the year...has an average ERA as he's been bit some by the HR ball. But he's averaging 9+ K per IP at the ML level with an acceptable 1.22 WHIP and OK .255 BA as a ROOKIE with 9 GS, 5 of which are on the road I believe, including 2 at Yankee stadium. What's not to like in his brief career and the stuff and potential he's shown so far? 

And, of course, we just won't talk about trades and development for arms like Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and some other young arms just beginning their careers or who haven't reached the ML just yet.

So let's go back to the OP.

I LOVED the Petty draft selection. And he might turn out to be a good/great ML arm. But unless you have a crystal ball that sees in to the future, how could anyone predict greatness from the most volatile of draft selections, a HS pitcher, vs adding a top of the rotation arm in Gray? He was excellent in 2022 when healthy. He's been even better this year. The only knock on him is being 33yo and needing too many pitches sometimes to get his high K numbers. But I'd love to have him for another year or two. Guy is good, and a leader as well as a performer.

Graterol for Maeda? I'd do that all day long. Graterol is young enough to improve, but his career numbers are those of an OK, solid BP arm. The Twins got a Cy Young worthy season in a great, fun 2020. I'd make that trade any day of the week. Just stinks his elbow gave out as his ST in 2021 had him looking as good or better.

Pablo Lopez is not some run of the mill arm. He's pretty damn good. And he's got room to be even better. And it cost us a fan favorite and great hitter in Arraez. And you won't find a bigger fan of Luis than me. And I miss him. But Miami isn't exactly raking with him in the lineup. And the Twins were going to have to trade at least 1, if not more, of their infielders in the near future. Again, I'd make this trade over and over again.

Mahle was a talented, relatively young, quality SP who's numbers were better outside of Cincinnati. It was a smart trade. I say that really liking all 3 prospects sent out! I thought Steer might be a great super utility player. I thought ECS had a chance to be a really good DH and backup 1B. I liked Povich better than Hajjar, but I liked his potential. Mahle, lest we remind ourselves, had ZERO issues with his shoulder after multiple doctor exams and a couple MRI's. And he looked just fine to begin this season. He even looked good in his 4 innings before being pulled out due to "discomfort". Who knew his elbow would blow out like that? They traded 3 solid prospects with a future for a really good arm who hadn't reached it's full potential yet. Prospects that might have been behind other equally talented prospects. This may turn out to be a loss, but it was a good and smart move at the time.

Paddack and Pagan vs Rogers and Rooker. I wouldn't have made that deal. I wanted to keep Rogers and add an arm to work with him. This didn't turn out right for anyone. Crap happens. Paddack looked great before his elbow gave out. We know what Pagan did. Rogers, like Paddack, was great early. Rogers, unfortunately for him, looks like a shadow of his former self. And while I still don't trust him, Pagan has actually looked pretty damn good past his initial 6 run blow-up to begin the season. And PLEASE, no more "Rooker was a mistake" arguements after he washed out with 3 teams before a good start to 2023 with the hapless A's. This trade comes down to a full recovery from Paddack. If he does so, even as a mid rotation SP, ultimately, the Twins "win" this trade, for whatever its worth. 

So here we are at last. The Twins have one of the best rotations in all of baseball as we reach the quarter mark. And they've done so already losing Mahle, and Maeda...at least for the short term...and we have a potential roster crunch in regard to prospect player depth. And we BEGAN the season 7 SP deep before injury. And in all of this....STILL having player depth despite trades...we have to ask if we've found value in trading for pitching talent?

The FO hasn't been perfect. But they've done a hell of a job to put this together, without seemingly sacrificing the future. I'm just knocking on wood for no more serious arm injuries and just letting all the pen arms fight it out for dominance. We get a proven 6 or 7 deep with the 8 spot being a rotating piece, this staff will lead us to 90+ wins.

Joe Ryan started 2 minor league games for the Twins before being called up. Are we really going to credit this club with developing him? Ober has finished 4/5 of his professional seasons with 60-80ish IP. The one season he eclipsed that mark he peaked at just over 100 IP. That's any pitcher? Idk what Varland is/will be, but I don't see much reason to gush over a career that's sub 50 IP with an average K rate and a FIP pushing 5. To call him a developmental hit at this point, eh...

The Twins got 11 good starts in a 60 game season. Maeda has been ineffective or hurt the last 2+ years. I doubt Dodgers fans or their FO are upset they received, at minimum, a solid BP arm under control for the next 4 years in exchange for 2 months of high tier starts. 

Miami's team stats are irrelevant; Arraez is killing it down there and the Twins are starting Donovan Solano and Willie Castro in the IF. 

The Mahle trade has been a disaster. They gambled on a guy trying to come back from shoulder issues, and those same issues immediately resurfaced. 

The Paddack/Pagan trade saga is over. They opted to resign Pagan and they extended Paddack. All in for the 1 season of Pagan + 5 Paddack starts over 2 years it hasn't been good. 

Yeah, I think we do need to ask that question, because by my count, depending on where your allegiances lay, the MN/LA swap can go either way, the Mahle and Paddack trades were busts, the Sonny Gray trade is tbd, and Ryan trade was an absolute W. 

7 deep with an 8th spot rotating? Does Kenta have a timetable for return right now? Even if he does, that's 6, who's your 7th? SWR? I doubt the Twins want him anywhere near major league hitters right now. 8th?