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When it comes to creating a pitching pipeline and certain amount of quality depth, there are roughly three ways for an organization to attack that idea. Derek Falvey had success in Cleveland by developing internal drafted talent. The goal in bringing him to Minnesota was replicating that sort of success. It’s the most cost effective plan of action, and arguably the most controllable.
Louie Varland and Bailey Ober have been hits in that regard, but they were Day 3 draft picks and there isn’t much else to hang a hat on for the front office. Matt Canterino and Jordan Balazovic types have been internal prospects, but neither has yet to pan out, and others such as Cole Sands or Brent Headrick have substantially lower ceilings.
A second avenue would be through paying free agents. No matter how much money the Twins choose to offer, they would need to beat out other suitors and present a compelling argument for arms to come to the colder Midwest. Offering a boatload to Carlos Rodon may not have been enough to change his mind, and even the Nathan Eovaldi types want to play in bigger markets or more ideal pitching conditions.
That leads us to a third avenue, and it’s one the Twins have explored prominently. By adding arms through a trade, the front office can look to find assets cast off by other teams, and while at times that’s for health reasons, it doesn’t always have to be.
Sonny Gray was a premium acquisition for Minnesota, and he cost a first-round draft pick in the form of Chase Petty. Joe Ryan was quite the opposite in that the Rays were willing to part with him for an aging Nelson Cruz in hopes of making an extended postseason run. Recently though, the run on injured pitchers has provoked this question. Is there a certain value to rolling the dice on a questionable arm?
Chris Paddack was likely the reason that Minnesota flipped Taylor Rogers to the Padres just before Opening Day last season. He had undergone Tommy John surgery previously, and there were arm concerns, but his team control and past success was enticing for a closer who was on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injury on his own.
It’s not entirely unlike the situation in which the Twins got involved trading Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers when the Red Sox parted with Mookie Betts. They lost a flame-throwing reliever, but got an established starter in Kenta Maeda. Los Angeles drafted his contract in a way that protected them from his arm concerns, and after the Twins saw him nearly win a Cy Young in 2020, they watched the blow out come to fruition.
This is a talking point again with the fallout from Tyler Mahle. Sure, they traded infielders Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (as well as Steven Hajjar) for the Reds starter, but the circumstances suggested to make that deal 100 out of 100 times. Steer was a multi-position prospect, and Encarnacion-Strand seems to be positionless prospect, with very good bats. However, the Twins needed a playoff arm, and Mahle fit the bill. They didn’t need to give up one of their premium prospects for someone that could be a number two, and his eventual elbow injury was unlikely related to the shoulder fatigue he dealt with in 2022.
Driveline founder Kyle Boddy recently put together a great thread on this topic after the Rays lost Drew Rasmussen to an elbow injury. They had already suffered the same fate for Jeffrey Springs this season, and it causes plenty to wonder if they are acquiring diminished assets. Instead, Boddy highlights that it is a negotiating tactic in looking to generate present value.
One of the most important things Boddy states is that “the goal of a team isn’t to ensure everyone stays healthy 100% of the time.” That level of thinking would be largely impossible. What an organization is attempting to do, and the Twins accomplished this year, is to create depth through a funnel of players that can continue to provide opportunity for the organization to win big-league ballgames.
The reality is that there is always going to be a level of risk associated with the acquisition of any player. It’s lowest through the draft from a financial outlay, but it’s highest there in that the potential future gain remains insurmountable. Paying players on the free-agent market can lead to dollars spent for little return, and you’re always dealing with a player allowed to leave for one reason or another. In trades, it’s about understanding what your organization values in relation to the one an individual is coming from, and trying to be on the right side of that more often than not.
At no point is it fair to evaluate if a trade was good based on how it works out. You can discuss the value gained or lost by a team, but the process leading to the point of a swap is where every organization in baseball should be looking to get it right.
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