Rumor: Tyler Mahle to undergo Tommy John Surgery

[CoasterProductions]

Per MLB Trade Rumors, Tyler Mahle will undergo Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of this year and part of next year.

Do the Twins re-sign him to an extension in hopes he'll take the free rehab facilities in trade for a year of pitching in 2025?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/tyler-mahle-tommy-john-surgery-twins.html

View full rumor

[Cory Engelhardt]

Huge bummer. I had such high hopes with the deal last year. And I would 100% make that trade every single time the situation like that unfolds. Sucks how it turned out. 

[weitz41]

Tough break..How about a Paddack extension for Tyler? Would make sense with the prospect investment the Twins made. Hoping for a full and speedy recovery.

[USAFChief]

Tough news, but not surprising. 

[Puckett34]

[wombat28]

Agree with weitz41, gave up too much to let him walk. Sign him.

[mac098]

Story of the Twins luck in recent trade history with our front office. I think he should get an extension but an incentive laden one. Dependant on innings pitched. I know we gave up some prospects that might have never seen the field with our current lineup, but it would have been really nice to have some more of that depth be available to us. 

 

But we have to look at this with a grain of salt. This will allow us to be able to use some of our pitching depth that we have. Varland, SWR, Ober, Henriquez, Enlow (if team feels he is ready), and others that might be candidates for Major League time. A double-edged sword at this point. 

[Jocko87]

Agree, sign him. Worst case he's a trade chip in 3 years. Recoup some value.

[wsnydes]

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

Brutal. I liked the trade at the time, but it has not turned out well at all.

Wouldn't be surprised if they tried to do a creative extension with him, but I don't know how quick I'd be about doing it. If Ober can stay healthy and throw 120+ innings (really big if) this year, and/or Varland continues to perform, and anyone from the SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa group show they're ready for a real shot next year there may not be room for Mahle coming off TJ next year. 

Lopez, Ryan, Paddack likely have rotation spots locked up for next year. If Varland and Ober claim the other 2 there's really no room for Mahle. If Gray is back on an extension, or accepting the QO, there's really, really no room for Mahle. Certainly would have an extension offer in my back pocket, but wouldn't be jumping on it too quickly. Give the young guys a chance to see if The Pipeline™ is ready to start flowing.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Tough break..How about a Paddack extension for Tyler? Would make sense with the prospect investment the Twins made. Hoping for a full and speedy recovery.

The prospects are a sunk cost but an extension isn't a bad idea. Mahle hasn't had a chance to make the big bucks (career earnings of $16M). He's looking at a minor league deal in the offseason now. The downside for the Twins with a contract extension is carrying a player who won't help on the 40 man roster all winter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Brutal. I liked the trade at the time, but it has not turned out well at all.

Wouldn't be surprised if they tried to do a creative extension with him, but I don't know how quick I'd be about doing it. If Ober can stay healthy and throw 120+ innings (really big if) this year, and/or Varland continues to perform, and anyone from the SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa group show they're ready for a real shot next year there may not be room for Mahle coming off TJ next year. 

Lopez, Ryan, Paddack likely have rotation spots locked up for next year. If Varland and Ober claim the other 2 there's really no room for Mahle. If Gray is back on an extension, or accepting the QO, there's really, really no room for Mahle. Certainly would have an extension offer in my back pocket, but wouldn't be jumping on it too quickly. Give the young guys a chance to see if The Pipeline™ is ready to start flowing.

Given that it's already approaching mid-May, I wouldn't worry about Mahle clogging up a rotation in 2024. The extension would have its eye on 2025.

[CRF]

First Paddack...now Mahle. Not the best luck when it comes to trading for pitchers. I suppose we should consider ourselves lucky that Lopez doesn't seem to be heading down this road. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins and Yankees continue to be in an arms race over who made the biggest mistake of the 2022 trade deadline: Mahle vs. Montas.

[jmlease1]

Tough beat. Probably good to make the call now and get it over with I guess? As much as it makes sense to try and avoid surgery whenever possible, it would be even worse for him if he tried to rest and rehab it for a couple of months and then still had to have the TJ anyways.

Bummer. I liked Mahle and thought he could have been a difference-maker.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given that it's already approaching mid-May, I wouldn't worry about Mahle clogging up a rotation in 2024. The extension would have its eye on 2025.

I mean you'd expect him back pitching well before the all-star break next year. He's not a guy you'd send to AAA until there's an opening in the rotation, once he's ready he'll expect to be back on a big league mound. Early July would be the latest I'd expect him back. If there's no open rotation spot, and they're 7 deep to start the year there's nowhere to put Mahle. This is still plenty early in the season that he'll expect to be in a big league rotation for at least half of next season.

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The prospects are a sunk cost but an extension isn't a bad idea. Mahle hasn't had a chance to make the big bucks (career earnings of $16M). He's looking at a minor league deal in the offseason now. The downside for the Twins with a contract extension is carrying a player who won't help on the 40 man roster all winter.

Yeah, I'll be interested to see where this goes. I don't have a good feel for how much room we have to maneuver on the 40-man for 2024 right now. I wouldn't be opposed to a "rehab extention" if we're not too sqeezed on the 40-man in the offseason?

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, wombat28 said:

Agree with weitz41, gave up too much to let him walk. Sign him.

Sunk cost fallacy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean you'd expect him back pitching well before the all-star break next year. He's not a guy you'd send to AAA until there's an opening in the rotation, once he's ready he'll expect to be back on a big league mound. Early July would be the latest I'd expect him back. If there's no open rotation spot, and they're 7 deep to start the year there's nowhere to put Mahle. This is still plenty early in the season that he'll expect to be in a big league rotation for at least half of next season.

That feels really aggressive to me. It's certainly possible but I can't predict any timeline shorter than 14 months for Tommy John and effectiveness often isn't immediate.

Say he gets the operation on May 15th. Fourteen months puts him at July 15th, 2023.

And if it's 16 months - which is pretty typical even today - it's September 15th.

[Puckett34]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given that it's already approaching mid-May, I wouldn't worry about Mahle clogging up a rotation in 2024. The extension would have its eye on 2025.

And by 2025 he'll be in his age 31 season.  Maybe a Pineda-type deal to let him rehab and see where he's at in two years.  My hopes are not high though

[Puckett34]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Sunk cost fallacy.

was about to type that too.

[DJL44]

The Twins have prioritized the extra year of control when acquiring pitchers during the season. Twice now they have had that strategy hurt them when the pitcher turned out to be injured and the extra year of control was during that injury recovery.

The best deadline deals are usually the ones where the trading team gives up the least. Get someone mediocre with an expiring contract to fill a hole and give up a non-prospect and/or cash. If your roster needs a top-end pitcher you probably aren't a contender anyway. If you want to acquire someone long term, do that in the offseason when costs are lower.

[Mike Sixel]

Bummer. Good luck to him. I would not extend him. I liked the trade, mostly, when made. People in this thread seem to be forgetting Ryan...but that's not the point of the thread, is it?

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That feels really aggressive to me. It's certainly possible but I can't predict any timeline shorter than 14 months for Tommy John and effectiveness often isn't immediate.

Say he gets the operation on May 15th. Fourteen months puts him at July 15th, 2023.

And if it's 16 months - which is pretty typical even today - it's September 15th.

It's a little tough to judge true timelines. Like Maeda was technically well over 12 months, but that's because the Twins were out of it at his 12 month mark, and then he had all offseason tacked on. They're expecting Paddack to be physically ready in August or September this year after his 2nd one which is supposed to be significantly longer.

I don't expect him to be effective immediately, but he's going to have to pitch, and he's not going to do it in the minors. But, to me, that's more reason to question an extension with him. You have to give him starts next year to work through things so that he's worked off the rust before 2025, but this team better be expecting to compete in 2024. I don't want Mahle getting starts if they have 6 or 7 other guys worthy who aren't working off TJ rust when they're trying to win a division.

Plus, everyone I already named is under contract through at least 2025. So where's his spot in 2025? I wouldn't close the door on an extension by any means, but if you're going into 2024 with, hopefully, 5 to 7 of Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Ober, Varland, Headrick, SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa, "random prospect who it clicks for this year" in line for starts you'd expect to have all of them still available in 2025, plus whatever guys (Raya, Prielipp?) start establishing themselves in 2024 you have even less space for Mahle.

But all of that is based on there being 5 to 7 guys looking ready for next season's rotation. That's why I don't close the door. Maybe SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa, Varland, and Ober all fail in some capacity this year. Mahle would be a really nice fallback option there. But I'll give these young guys until August to see if they're claiming their spots before I look to extend Mahle.

[Musk21]

This is an interesting article about Paddack when looking at timelines as both Paddack and Mahle will have had their procedures done in May (Paddack in 22, Mahle in 23).

https://theathletic.com/4213207/2023/02/17/chris-paddack-contract-extension-surgery/

Paddack "likes having the carrot of potentially pitching for a team in a pennant race in September."

Some differences though include:

• This was Paddack's second operation, although this consisted of an internal brace instead of undergoing a second full Tommy John surgery.
• Because this is his 2nd elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister.

[Battle ur tail off]

Do not under any circumstances extend him. It was his shoulder first when we traded for him. Now it is his elbow. If I am the GM, I cut my losses and move on. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, wombat28 said:

Agree with weitz41, gave up too much to let him walk. Sign him.

An extension might or might not be the right course, but what we gave up for him has no bearing.  That's the Sunk Cost Fallacy in action.

Apart from that, I know we're always hopeful that TJS has the guy back and productive in a year, but just going from memory it doesn't seem to work out that way.  Rehab begins after a certain point and the player is throwing in earnest from the mound after a year or so, but that's not the same as being ready to win games like he used to.  Maeken would be the current example on our roster for that.

So if he works real hard, throwing for real at St Paul 14 months from now, maybe he's good to go for 2025.  If I'm negotiating, I want a commitment to 2025-26 both, and at not very much money relative to free agents.  His hopes of a big payday* are gone, whether the Twins are in the picture or not.  Guaranteeing him millions of dollars should get the team something really significant in return.

* relative to what he could have commanded on the open market before this happened

[baul0010]

30 minutes ago, CRF said:

First Paddack...now Mahle. Not the best luck when it comes to trading for pitchers. I suppose we should consider ourselves lucky that Lopez doesn't seem to be heading down this road. 

Why did you have to bring Lopez into the conversation!  Now we all have to find some wood to knock on!

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Do not under any circumstances extend him. It was his shoulder first when we traded for him. Now it is his elbow. If I am the GM, I cut my losses and move on. 

i feel that way too.  Still, it depends on the terms of an extension that would interest him.  Does he want a guarantee that sets him up for life, or does he want to gamble?  If Dobnak money gets it done, I consider it.

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

And by 2025 he'll be in his age 31 season.  Maybe a Pineda-type deal to let him rehab and see where he's at in two years.  My hopes are not high though

Yeah, I wouldn't be rushing to extend him; I don't think the potential talent/performance payoff is worth the risk.