Where is the Twins Promised Aggressiveness?

[Ted Schwerzler]

This season Major League Baseball made drastic changes to the rules surrounding the game. Notably the pitch clock and a shift ban were introduced, but large bases and pickoff restrictions were intended to create excitement on the base paths. Many teams have participated, but the Minnesota Twins have not.

 

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Not surprisingly, plenty of outlets have tracked stolen base frequency and success rates this season. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello put together a wonderful piece last week outlining the scenario. As you may have guessed, attempts and success are up across the board. With pitchers being allowed to disengage from the mound just twice and the bases inches closer to each other, there is more advantage than ever tilted toward the runner.

Why then do the Minnesota Twins, who employ Byron Buxton, have just a single stolen base to their credit?

It took until the sixth game of the season for Michael A. Taylor to steal the first base for Rocco Baldelli’s club. Both Willi Castro and Matt Wallner have been caught, making the club just 1-for-3 on attempts thus far. Needing to steal at roughly and 80% clip to be worthwhile, the Twins fall short of that threshold.

But again, where is the aggressiveness?

The answer is certainly multi-faceted. Buxton and Taylor are two of the best bets in the regular Minnesota lineup to swipe a bag. The former has just a .300 OBP and four of his 13 hits have gone for extra-bases. Taylor has an even lower .281 OBP and with three surprise homers, five of his 15 hits have gone for extra bases.

You could call Nick Gordon somewhat of a base stealer given his relative speed, but he has started the season awfully cold at the plate. Owning just a .100/.122/.125 slash line, Gordon has gone 4-for-40 in his first 13 games. He went just 6-for-10 on stolen base attempts last year, and if he wants an opportunity to be better, it will require him more regularly getting on base.

On the bench, WIlli Castro has never stolen more than nine bases in a season, but Edouard Julien should be seen as a runner. He has yet to get on base enough for the Twins to make it matter, but his 34 swipes in 2021, and 19 last year are definitely something that Baldelli and Minnesota can use.

With regards to guys like Buxton and the eventually-returning Jorge Polanco, steals may not be seen worthwhile given the injury risk. Buxton has already been upended on the base paths this year, and it was running the bases last year where he found himself developing a season-long injury. Polanco has already dealt with knee issues, and inviting an enhanced opportunity for more seems foolish.

That said, Baldelli can clearly see the struggles of his offense in the early going. With 63 runs to their credit through 16 games, only Oakland, Washington, the two AL Central bottom feeders, and the Miami Marlins have scored less. Needing to find additional ways to generate production, taking bases is something to consider.

In talking with multiple players during spring training, aggressiveness on the base paths was going to be a focus for the Twins. Baldelli brought in former manager Paul Molitor to work with the club on base running, and multiple quick twitch initiatives have been employed during recent seasons with a focus on generating jumps.

While it’s great for Minnesota to push for more base path aggressiveness, opportunity has to present itself, and for the right people. This Twins team shouldn’t exactly be considered fast, and some of their best base stealers are also capable of racking up extra-base hits, limiting opportunity. Still through, three steals in 16 games is not a way to keep the opposition honest, and if the Twins don’t do something about it they risk being significantly easier to game plan against.

It’s unlikely any Minnesota player is going to steal 30 bases this season, but not having multiple guys on the move despite rule changes inviting it would be peculiar. Aggressiveness can be translated to taking extra bases and getting guys going, but without stealing bases at all, it’s harder to see than ever.

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[FlyingFinn]

If it's a choice between Buxton playing CF or stealing bases, I choose playing CF.

[roger]

Buxton is the Twins best player to steal a base.  But with the injury concerns, it ain't gonna happen.  Expect he will end the year with a handful of steals, say +/- five.  And if he ends the season playing daily, that ain't bad.

Who else has the temperament and speed to steal a lot of bases?  As you mentioned, Taylor?  Maybe.  Keps or Gordon?  Less likely.  

Stolen bases won't become part of the Twins DNA until a few of those young prospects finally arrive and stay.  Guys like Julien, Lewis, Martin, or Lee should steal some bases.  But with the Twins management mentality, will they?  Wouldn't the Piranhas been fun to watch with these rules?

[Dave Borton]

"Who else has the temperament and speed to steal a lot of bases?  As you mentioned, Taylor?  Maybe.  Keps or Gordon?  Less likely..."

Twins, .228 BA, 1 steal
Guardians, .231 BA, 26 steals

Petriello said on his podcast, 11 Twins are below avg in speed in comparison to all MLB players. 2 are above avg. Mudders, I guess. https://www.mlb.com/news/fastest-mlb-teams-in-2023

I don't think Francona is much interested in an individual's temperament about stealing.

[tony&rodney]

This topic was covered in another post last week. The Twins have average speed. The season is young, such that we cannot definitively state that the Twins will finish the season as the worst base running team in MLB again. However, based on all available data from the Falvey/Baldelli era, the Twins have made a conscious choice to not run.

As a related aside, I either missed it or it is still unclear .... wtf happened at the end of the game yesterday (4/20)? Two outs, two strikes, and a line drive into centerfield. The centerfielder was playing fairly deep. Kepler's run is meaningless, thus he either scores easily standing up because he was off with the swing or stops at third base playing it safe. This is one of the easiest base running plays in baseball. What happened? Does anyone know? Did any writer or reporter cover this play? I missed it.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

If it's a choice between Buxton playing CF or stealing bases, I choose playing CF.

Does it matter - he isn't playing CF, and he isn't hitting.   Let's use Buxton as a ball player and take off the bubble wrap - it isn't working. 

[DJL44]

RE: Not stealing due to the injury risk - at some point you need to use the players to play baseball.

[farmerguychris]

When did they 'promise' to be more aggressive?  As others have stated, you have to have the players to be aggressive with.  Do you even WANT to be aggressive with players like Buxton (injury), Gordon (never on base so far), or Kepler (inablity to get on base).

 

[Trov]

Stealing bases is more than just speed, it is a combo of things.  Paul Molitor who was never known as a speed guy, stole 504 bases caught 131, for 79% success rate, right where it makes it worth it.  Yes, 504 over his career is not a ton, and he played in a different era where teams hit and ran as well.  A good base stealer can steal even if they do not have elite speed, and guys with elite speed can still get caught.  

That being said it also comes down to opportunities.  Stealing to just steal makes no sense, it needs to be worth the risk, and be in the right situation.  Poor throwing catcher, slow to catcher pitcher, and other things all are involved.  I also feel the team is very risk adverse for both injuries of guys as well.  Correa reportedly during a slide on a steal attempt had issues with his ankle.  He said, 90 feet was not worth the possible injury.  Buck has been hurt on steals as has many others.  So it is not just the risk of the out, but increased risk of getting injured that teams may be looking at.  

I am sure when the chances are their they may start increasing the running game. 

[tony&rodney]

There have been a couple of times this season where the Twins ran aggressively thus far, but mostly we still see the team quite apprehensive if not dismissive about the running game. Any personnel changes may result in a change in strategies, but this has not been a pattern of this management team.

Paul Molitor was fast but he also, arguably, possessed the greatest baseball intellect of the current era. His numbers would have him as the Twins leader in runs, hits, doubles, triples, stolen bases, and fourth in home runs among a few stats worth noting. He played with reckless abandon and missed a ton of games with some bad injuries in a long career.

Hopefully a few of the Twins pick up a tip or two from Paul because any knowledge he passes along is gold to be cashed in when put into play.

[Doctor Gast]

You can't teach an old dog new tricks. Julien has stolen some bases in the minors but he hasn't been sent in the MLB. I agree with the assessment here with Buxton, Polanco & Correa not worth the risk. Taylor can steal more, Wallner is fast but he doesn't have the instinct. We have some young ones coming besides Julien with Lewis, Martin & Lee that can steal a base to name a few. 

I heard that 70% was the break-off point of effeciency to steal a base. Hope in the near future the coaches have the guts to send the runners when the conditions is right. Maybe they use their analytics to find out which pitchers & catchers to run on & exploit it. Because stolen bases can goof up the pitchers & provoke mistakes.

[Seth Stohs]

They were never going to be big base stealers... I don't know if that is measured with any confidence. I don't know if the Twins have run the bases better (1st to 3rd, 1st or second to home, etc.).

Not really many guys I would want the Twins.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, davidborton said:

perament about stealing.

I’m actually a little on the fence about the subject of stealing bases.  It actually is a bit of a dilemma.  On one hand, the chart shows that we are average plodders, but many of the teams below the Twins, like the White Sox, steal bases.  The younger players in particular know how to do it, because they were much more likely to have done it recently in the minors.  So, why not?  On the other hand, protecting Buxton, et al from injury means we should be afraid to run, but does it actually do anything to prevent injury?  Players do get injured and Buxton seems to pick up more than his share, but I’m not convinced that being careful necessarily prevents injury.  Sometimes playing “not to lose” means you also can’t win.   I think the more Byron Buxton is involved in the game, the better he will play, whether that is through playing CF, running the bases, or anything else.  Right now he’s not playing CF, not stealing bases, and also not really hitting.  It’s time to change it up and get him moving.   

[TwinsDr2021]

"It’s unlikely any Minnesota player is going to steal 30 bases this season"

It if funny you say any player could reach 30, will the whole team? Since 2018 they have stolen 47, 28, 14, 54, 38.

Where are the re-enforcement's coming to steal bases?

AK? he is 13 for 23 in the minors and 1 for 2 in the majors?

Polanco? coming off injury? and last year was 3 for 6

Lewis? coming off an ACL?

Lee? he hasn't successfully stolen a base since he was drafted.

Contreras in AAA has 5 and Stevenson as 6, they excite anybody?

[rv78]

It is clear that Rocco and the FO play for the HR. The lack of SB attempts is just one indication. Signing all or nothing hitters like Gallo is another. To date the Twins are 7-2 when they hit a HR and 4-6 when they don't. They need to get everyone in the lineup to swing for the fences. Maybe they can petition to the Commissioner to bring back the juiced ball.

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

"It’s unlikely any Minnesota player is going to steal 30 bases this season"

It if funny you say any player could reach 30, will the whole team? Since 2018 they have stolen 47, 28, 14, 54, 38.

Where are the re-enforcement's coming to steal bases?

AK? he is 13 for 23 in the minors and 1 for 2 in the majors?

Polanco? coming off injury? and last year was 3 for 6

Lewis? coming off an ACL?

Lee? he hasn't successfully stolen a base since he was drafted.

Contreras in AAA has 5 and Stevenson as 6, they excite anybody?

The best bet among prospects to steal a lot of bases is Austin Martin, he had over 30 in AA last year despite a down offensive year. Of course, he hasn't played this year since he has a bum elbow. Next best bet is Julien. Also a chance that Lewis could be a SB guy depending on his recovery from not one, but two ACL tears. He did still have very good speed after his first surgery. Who knows what is left and whether he'd risk injury by running a lot after a second surgery.

[jkcarew]

The Twins have 'average' speed only in theory, since Buxton doesn't run...and the other guys that hold up the top-end of that average don't get on base much.

I don't know who expected the Twins to be aggressive. I didn't.

Stealing bases for the sake of stealing bases does nothing for me. As the article states, outs are more valuable than the 90 feet almost all the time...hence the need to be 75+% successful to even break even. Having said that, it would be nice to have the ABILITY to play that game...to have that tool in the toolkit...for certain situations. I don't think we have that. So, we probably shouldn't force it much.

[NotAboutWinning]

We are still looking at base stealing as it has been done for the last 100 years... thinking it is just something for young, fast players. Look at what the Yankees did. They have already adapted to the new rules/bases with a double-jump technique that doesn't require as much speed, but relies more on timing. Just sayin.

[tony&rodney]

The issue is not about the individual speed of specific players. One can look over all of the stolen base numbers for teams and individual players and see instances of success for teams as well as slow players with less speed than the Twins. It is a team philosophy. The Twins under Falvey/Baldelli do not run.

Now we don't have to agree or disagree with this strategy but it is the plan if one can accept years of data. The final grade is how the team fares in their season and we will see how 2023 plays out over the next months. The Twins believe their best chances to win are with their bats, fielding, and pitching. They have put together a team with pretty solid depth to cover for a number of injuries or poor performances. Thus far this season the won - loss record is decent. 

For those who feel running is a substandard or relatively unimportant factor in winning baseball games because outs on the bases are too valuable to risk, the Falvey/Baldelli plan is your team to follow. For those who feel running is a valuable factor in winning baseball games, watch the results of this season for Cleveland, Baltimore, and the Yankees. It is obviously an open question still, because not all teams are running. The Twins are not on an island with their current strategy.

[TopGunn#22]

I've been complaining about this for awhile.  As others have already stated, Rocco does not value the stolen base.  And as Rod Carew's Birthday showed with the chart he supplied the Twins are solidly middle of the pack in team speed.  The Yankees are near the bottom.  Now, one guy like a Volpe who could steal 40 bases has a big impact, but speed alone isn't needed to effectively steal bases. 

Another thing I've been figuratively pounding the table on and Mike Link mentioned earlier is to just take the bubble wrap off Buxton and let him play.  Buxton's insanely stupid baserunning collision at 2nd base a couple games ago illustrates that "bubble wrapping" Byron is NOT going to protect him.  Rocco and the F.O. cannot protect Buxton from himself.  Just take off the bubble wrap and play him! 

A couple games ago, about the 7th inning, the Twins had Taylor on first base with Kepler up.  We were up by one run.  It's a perfect situation to try to steal second base, get a runner in scoring position and maybe even force a bad throw by the catcher.  After two pitches and no steal attempt the count was 0-2.  This is when you MUST steal second base.  There is a high probability that the 0-2 pitch will be a breaking ball or change-up in the dirt (it was).  If Taylor gets thrown out, Kepler leads off the 8th.  If he's successful, you've got a guy in scoring position.  Kepler blooped a hit into left center, next hitter got out.  Missed opportunity.  My frustration continues to build.  

[TopGunn#22]

The other thing I would suggest is that Buxton no longer use the head first slide.  He's terrible at it.  Every time he does it he looks terribly awkward.  Feet first.  You really don't get there any faster with a head first slide but the chance of hurting a shoulder or hand (even with the oven mitt) is higher.  

[John Belinski]

The 2023 Twins will probably be leaders in several areas.

#1 in hitting into double plays.

#1 with the least stolen bases.

#1 with least wins in extra inning games.

#1 with least wins in one run games.

Until the Twins hire a real manager and not have a trainee manager they will not be in playoffs.

[Larry Janisewski]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I've been complaining about this for awhile.  As others have already stated, Rocco does not value the stolen base.  And as Rod Carew's Birthday showed with the chart he supplied the Twins are solidly middle of the pack in team speed.  The Yankees are near the bottom.  Now, one guy like a Volpe who could steal 40 bases has a big impact, but speed alone isn't needed to effectively steal bases. 

Another thing I've been figuratively pounding the table on and Mike Link mentioned earlier is to just take the bubble wrap off Buxton and let him play.  Buxton's insanely stupid baserunning collision at 2nd base a couple games ago illustrates that "bubble wrapping" Byron is NOT going to protect him.  Rocco and the F.O. cannot protect Buxton from himself.  Just take off the bubble wrap and play him! 

A couple games ago, about the 7th inning, the Twins had Taylor on first base with Kepler up.  We were up by one run.  It's a perfect situation to try to steal second base, get a runner in scoring position and maybe even force a bad throw by the catcher.  After two pitches and no steal attempt the count was 0-2.  This is when you MUST steal second base.  There is a high probability that the 0-2 pitch will be a breaking ball or change-up in the dirt (it was).  If Taylor gets thrown out, Kepler leads off the 8th.  If he's successful, you've got a guy in scoring position.  Kepler blooped a hit into left center, next hitter got out.  Missed opportunity.  My frustration continues to build.  

194 major leaguers have a stolen base---the same as the entire Twins team.

Close to 100 have twice as many or more then the Twins.

Since the Twins have only scored more runs then 3 other teams (and the Nationals might pass them at the pace of this series) attempting to get more runners in scoring position sure can't hurt.

[Blyleven2011]

Changing the rules and larger bases to create a faster more exciting  game of baseball  ...

It's doesn't appear the twins have it in their vocabulary  to manufacture runs , something I truly think keep sinking the twins , there are some games that could have been won  with some emphasis on manufacturing  a run ...

This is not 2019 and the juiced ball  , MLB  could have brought back the juiced ball to create excitement in the game but they didn't because that would slow the game down ...

Run , catch and throw  the ball ...

We need a better plan or we'll continually be behind the eight ball ...

One last humble thought as harsh as it is  , we will not win with this plan of the FO  and with current manager  ...

The package must go  ...

[Oldtimer]

22 hours ago, John Belinski said:

The 2023 Twins will probably be leaders in several areas.

#1 in hitting into double plays.

#1 with the least stolen bases.

#1 with least wins in extra inning games.

#1 with least wins in one run games.

Until the Twins hire a real manager and not have a trainee manager they will not be in playoffs.

Plus #1 with runners left in scoring position with two outs.

[Linus]

Who on this team would you want to steal bases?  Buxton and Taylor. That’s it. The other guys will get thrown out far too often. I would be happy if they just ran the bases intelligently and avoided costly mistakes. Hi Max Kepler. 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 4/21/2023 at 3:56 PM, stringer bell said:

The best bet among prospects to steal a lot of bases is Austin Martin, he had over 30 in AA last year despite a down offensive year. Of course, he hasn't played this year since he has a bum elbow. Next best bet is Julien. Also a chance that Lewis could be a SB guy depending on his recovery from not one, but two ACL tears. He did still have very good speed after his first surgery. Who knows what is left and whether he'd risk injury by running a lot after a second surgery.

Kind of funny that the best guy is hurt, 24, in AA, and without a real position, and the next best just got demoted after attempting 0 stolen bases.