Byron Buxton Playing Centerfield will not Fix this Twins Offense

[Greggory Masterson]

Twins fans have been spoiled with centerfielders who can both field and hit. The same is true this year. The problems lie elsewhere.

 

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins’ offense has been bad. There are no two ways about it. Per Baseball Reference, they rank 25th in team OPS and 24th in offensive WAR. They need to hit. Many fans are clamoring for Byron Buxton to be moved out of the DH slot and into centerfield so that another bat can be added to the order to replace Michael A. Taylor. However, this line of thinking doesn’t hold up practically or in theory.

At the onset, I want to acknowledge that the best lineup for these Twins features a healthy Buxton hitting in the middle of the order and patrolling centerfield. I hope to see it soon. However, it’s the least of the team’s offensive problems right now.

First, let’s dig into the practical reason—Taylor is hitting better than the alternatives. Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, Max Kepler, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Kyle Garlick, and Buxton all have a lower OPS+ than Taylor. Replacing him in the lineup with any of those options worsens the offense.

Of course, this issue shouldn’t be expected to continue. Talyor is hitting roughly how he did last year, about 15% better than his career average. Even if he maintains that level, the other bats should heat up and pass him by—right? Please tell me I’m right.

Therein lies the problem—the other bats. From a theoretical perspective, that’s the biggest issue with the offense. The players in bat-first positions have largely been disappointing.

The beauty of a player like Buxton is that he occupies a glove-first position in centerfield and an elite glove to boot, but he also has a big bat. The bat is so big that he can play the hitting-only position at DH and have the potential to be one of the best in the league at it.

Correa is in the same boat—great glove at a fielding-heavy position and a great bat. Even the tandem of Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers brings solid bats to a position where the bar is quite low. Centerfielders, shortstops, and catchers are paid to field. Hitting is gravy. The Twins are in a great position with good-to-elite fielders at all three positions with average-to-elite bats.

It provides them an immense advantage in roster construction. If the weakest offensive positions have some of their best hitters, filling in the rest of the lineup with good bats, an easier task, can make the lineup elite. But it’s not mandatory for success.

Since the 80s, Twins fans have watched the likes of Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, Buxton, and even Denard Span roam centerfield. They were each good defenders who could handle the bat well enough to hit in the top half of the order. Not every centerfielder needs to do that, though.

A great lineup can have a Taylor at the bottom, so long as he’s an elite fielder—which Taylor is. The 2022 World Series champion Astros had catcher Martín Maldonado, a far worse hitter than Taylor. The 2021 Braves had catcher Travis d’Arnaud. It wasn’t their job to hit—they provided value in the field. Taylor can do that.

However, with a player like Taylor in the field, it’s imperative that the positions lower on the defensive spectrum—namely the corners: first base, left field, right field, and third base—produce. It’s easier to find competent bats at those positions, which are much less fielding-intensive. C.J. Cron, for example, was picked up off waivers in 2019, was paid a painless $4.8 million, played well until a thumb injury, and then was released.

So far, the Twins have yet to get much help from their bat-first positions. Buxton himself hasn’t hit well, but he is streaky, and no one expects this funk to last forever. In contrast, everyone asked to fill a corner spot has some question mark attached to them, and production has been low.

Joey Gallo and Kepler need bounce-back years. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach must return from two years of injury and solidify themselves. Miranda looked good in 2022—but had a shaky start and end—and sophomore slumps are always valid concerns. Gordon had a breakout year in 2022, but he needs to prove it’s legit. Donovan Solano is 35. Wallner and Edouard Julien are unproven rookies.

Thus far, there have been few positive answers to those question marks. As a team, the Twins have had solid production from their first basemen (Solano, Gallo, Miranda), ranking 6th in OPS at .943. The other three bat-first positions have been markedly poorer.

Third basemen (Miranda, Castro) rank 27th at .495, left fielders (Larnach, Gordon, Castro, Garlick) rank 28th at .517, and right fielders (Larnach, Kepler, Wallner, Garlick, Gallo) rank 21st at .655. It’s abysmal.

Individually, there are some bright spots. Gallo has been otherworldly, though injured. Julien is off to a hot start. Solano has been a welcome addition, though it’s difficult to count on him consistently providing first-base-production against righties. Larnach got off to a hot start but has cooled down a bit. The other corner options have been below-average, at very best, at positions that cannot be below average.

This problem may eventually work itself out. With such a large pool of potential bats, it may take time to identify which players can round out the roster built around Buxton and Correa. However, until then, the team isn’t hurting itself, keeping Buxton out of centerfield. When the alternative to Buxton as a DH and Taylor as a centerfielder is Buxton in center and Nick Gordon (-33 OPS+) at DH, there’s no rush to get Buxton into the field.

 

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[Melissa]

Fair analysis, Greggory. The team has already lost too many games when the starting pitching held their opponents to very few runs.

[Jocko87]

Taylor has been a pleasant surprise.  I like him much better off the bench where Rocco can set matchups and pitch run or play late inning D.  Maybe its how poor the rest of the lineup has been but for the most part he had passed the eye test for me.  A solid player as expected.  Then I few days ago I looked at his numbers and whoof. 

I will say I lean towards Buxton going to CF for the mental aspects for him.  Agreed that there's no hurry to get someone else ABs.  He seems the type that needs to distract himself between at bats and help defensively when he's not hitting to keep on the level.  It may get him going but it doesn't fix anything for the rest of the lineup, although hitting is contagious I hear.

Looked back at the prime Degrom years with the Mets.  I don't remember how touted they were but yuck for hitters for the most part.  Stars and scrubs with the stars fading or not developed.

There are far too many capable hitters still in the mix here to struggle too long.  The up the middle guys will hit-if they don't its a long year all around.  Then the corner spots have options that can be rotated based on performance.  Its about the best roster construction we could hope for and a really low probability that no one hits.  I just hope they aren't as patient as they have been with lower performance but a manager is only as faithful as his options.  I believe Rocco/FO will have a quicker hook this year for hitters.

[mikelink45]

It was a good essay, but Buxton at DH does not do it for me at this time.  I need more than a Sano imitation.  With his speed he could do so much more.  Taylor is center is okay, but there is a lot to resolve. and I know it is early in the season.  May is coming and the bats need to heat up.

[William K Johnson]

Move Taylor to a corner outfield position when facing lefthanders or when one of the left-handers are struggling.    Buxton in center, Taylor in a corner position would make a great outfield no matter who the third outfielder is.

[hitterscount]

Correa will pick it up, the others is a big question. If they haven't by the end of May it should be time to start bringing up some of the minor league prospects that have been performing for their respective teams. 

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Correa will pick it up, the others is a big question. If they haven't by the end of May it should be time to start bringing up some of the minor league prospects that have been performing for their respective teams. 

Besides Lee, which prospects are there? Wallner? Martin and Lewis are hurt. Erod, maybe but isn't he hurt now as well?

Otherwise I don't see any prospects that are even close.

 

[rv78]

Maybe the Twins should play their regulars more in spring training so they are READY when the regular season starts instead of a month later..

[hitterscount]

It is pretty bare at the higher levels... Lee is an obvious choice and Lewis when he comes back later and if he looks anything like he did last year. 

The we faced a lot of aces argument only goes so far. There will be many aces to face if they make the playoffs... need to score a few runs against them and hope our pitching holds. 

It is early and the concern meter is still fairly low.... this continues for another 3-4 weeks and it certainly goes up. 

[Doctor Gast]

Completely agree with you that C, SS, CF and to some extent 2B now with the shift ban are premium positions. Where glove takes priority over bat. We have been blessed with 2 very good CFers and Taylor has been solid hitting. I won't evaluate every player but as a whole and especially where hitting needs to be more prevalent are not holding up their end (like you stated). But by removing Buxton from DH & put him in CF will help anything? you ask, I think yes.

It has been discussed here at TD, that Buxton at DH isn't hitting his weight there. That Buxton to many, will do much better hitting playing CF because he likes to be engaged in the game therefore he's more productive. At DH he's not engaged, he steps up to the plate, he quite often SOs then goes sit down for about 30 mins. goes up & repeat. Playing CF he can become more engaged, then he's more productive, which fires up the other players etc. Removing Buxton from DH also frees up another RH bat to plug into a line up. Grant that Buxton's health is important and needs to be factored into the equation before he's liberated from DH.

[miracleb]

I disagree.  Having Buxton in center (similar glove to Taylor) would eliminate Taylor at bats.  Taylor has actually been solid at the plate .....but history says that is temporary.   Swapping in Kiriloff's bat (or Larnach, etc.,) will lead to a better offense without giving up defense.  Taylor can be a starting centerfielder for Kansas City.......but not for a playoff contending team!

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Melissa said:

Fair analysis, Greggory. The team has already lost too many games when the starting pitching held their opponents to very few runs.

We have lost 8 games:

Dylan Cease - Alcantara/Luzardo - Chris Sale - D. Cole………5 of our losses are to pitchers that, when pitching well, have top 10-15 talent in all of baseball. These 5 guys gave up 6 total runs to Twins over those 5 losses. Sometimes good pitching beats anybody’s hitting!

In 19 games we have scored 9 runs, 10 runs, & 11 runs twice. We have capability.

Need our starting 1B & starting 2B in the line-up. Period. We’ve had some nice contributions from some of the guys brought in to be platoon players. Also, our everyday guys like Miranda - Correa - Buxton - Gordon - Kepler all need to be better - agreed.

21 minutes ago, miracleb said:

I disagree.  Having Buxton in center (similar glove to Taylor) would eliminate Taylor at bats.  Taylor has actually been solid at the plate .....but history says that is temporary.   Swapping in Kiriloff's bat (or Larnach, etc.,) will lead to a better offense without giving up defense.  Taylor can be a starting centerfielder for Kansas City.......but not for a playoff contending team!

Agreed. Taylor has been very helpful to date but it won’t last v. RH pitching. Playing defense isn’t going to help Buxton’s hitting - he’s gotta figure that out with coaching help.

Need Kiriloff & Polanco back to bring some level of consistency to the line-up. These 2 guys give us the ability to not regularly start guys hitting sub .200!

[Whitey333]

How will swapping in Kiriloffs bat add to the offense?  How do we know that?  The past two seasons he has played very little and what he has shown is just average or below.  I question their depth.  Granted it's better than last year but much of their depth is unproven, injured, and over- hyped.  Sick of watching Buxton doing his Sano look a like imitation at the plate.  He's flailing at the plate, AGAIN and has become an automatic out.  Maybe his stats will improve on this homestand facing Nationals and Royals.  Their offense was poor last year and we shouldn't be surprised at it's lack of production this year.  But somehow they win once in a while although just a little under .500 since starting the season 4-0.  Thank goodness for a very poor central division.  Still love the Twins.  10 game homestand against Nationals, Yankees, and Royals.  The goal must be to go at least 7-3.  Yes the Yankees are tough but the Nationals and Royals are cellar dwellers.  Go Twins.

[John Belinski]

Putting Gordon at DH would be a bad joke. The last time I looked he wasn't even batting .100, but with Rocco as manager anything is possible.

 

[GNess]

Here are three probable developments that are quite likely to give a big boost to the line up:

1. Polanco, back on the active roster healthy and playing regularly

2. Correa hitting near his career norms

3. Buxton getting out of this recent short but deep slump

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If you think about it, this article is suggesting that Byron Buxton and Michael Taylor are interchangeable. 

[farmerguychris]

13 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If you think about it, this article is suggesting that Byron Buxton and Michael Taylor are interchangeable. 

You're right in your comment - but today Taylor is nearly as good in CF, and a better hitter so far this year.... So..yeah.

Sure long term Buxton will be better....he has to be, and Taylor will cool off and come back to his career average numbers, but for the time being - makes no sense that putting Buxton in CF will do anything to improve our hitting because we have no bench players who would go  into the DH spot that are hitting better than today's version of Taylor.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

9 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

You're right in your comment - but today Taylor is nearly as good in CF, and a better hitter so far this year.... So..yeah.

Sure long term Buxton will be better....he has to be, and Taylor will cool off and come back to his career average numbers, but for the time being - makes no sense that putting Buxton in CF will do anything to improve our hitting because we have no bench players who would go  into the DH spot that are hitting better than today's version of Taylor.

You are right as well. Honestly, if we are facing righties this weekend, I would call up Kirilloff to DH right now. Drive him over from St. Paul and put him in the lineup. So you are replacing Taylor with Kirilloff if Buxton were decide it’s time for him to play center, which is also something that needs to happen soon anyway. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

Maybe the Twins should play their regulars more in spring training so they are READY when the regular season starts instead of a month later..

Byron Buxton went 6 for 13 to start the season. That's a .462 average. He was hitting .302 after 11 games. Jose Miranda played a ton all spring, and he started 2 for 11 and was hitting .182 after 11 games. So which one was "ready when the regular season starts?" The guy who didn't play as much as people wanted, or the guy who played a lot?

[stringer bell]

50 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You are right as well. Honestly, if we are facing righties this weekend, I would call up Kirilloff to DH right now. Drive him over from St. Paul and put him in the lineup. So you are replacing Taylor with Kirilloff if Buxton were decide it’s time for him to play center, which is also something that needs to happen soon anyway. 

We have seen sometime in May bandied about as the time when the Twins will look at Buxton in center field. There is still a week left in March...I mean April and "sometime in May" certainly doesn't guarantee the decision will be made on May 1. I think it will be at least four weeks, and maybe much longer, before Buxton makes an appearance as a center fielder. 

[JD-TWINS]

Not sure why you are pointing out “up the middle strength” & then referring to guy’s offensive stats w/o ever mentioning Polanco. He’s a career .270BA - switch hitting guy with 20 plus homer power!

No need to worry about when Buxton gets back to CF. Taylor & Gordon have the D covered.

Don't get lost in the early offensive stats!

A big part of our offensive issues as a team fall into 5 games we’ve played & lost. We mustered 6 runs against these 5 starters………… Yankees - Cole, Marlins - Alcantara/Luzardo, White Sox - Cease, Boston - Sale. ALL 5 of these guys are like running into the proverbial buzz saw. The only two w/o a former Cy Young are Cease - voted 2nd in ‘22 & Luzardo - too young to have been noticed……left hander that throws 98 Mph with 2 other pitches! We’ve lost 3 starts out of 19 starts to normal pitching - not bad!

Buxton - Gordon - Kepler - CC - Miranda all need to get rolling,

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Completely agree with you that C, SS, CF and to some extent 2B now with the shift ban are premium positions. Where glove takes priority over bat. We have been blessed with 2 very good CFers and Taylor has been solid hitting. I won't evaluate every player but as a whole and especially where hitting needs to be more prevalent are not holding up their end (like you stated). But by removing Buxton from DH & put him in CF will help anything? you ask, I think yes.

It has been discussed here at TD, that Buxton at DH isn't hitting his weight there. That Buxton to many, will do much better hitting playing CF because he likes to be engaged in the game therefore he's more productive. At DH he's not engaged, he steps up to the plate, he quite often SOs then goes sit down for about 30 mins. goes up & repeat. Playing CF he can become more engaged, then he's more productive, which fires up the other players etc. Removing Buxton from DH also frees up another RH bat to plug into a line up. Grant that Buxton's health is important and needs to be factored into the equation before he's liberated from DH.

There is absolutely something to certain guys struggling as a DH as it's a very different mental approach to the game. I'm not sure Buxton's numbers suggest he's one of those guys, though. His numbers from last year sure don't look like playing CF made much of a difference:

Struck out 31% of the time as a CFer, 27 as a DH. Almost identical BA. Much better OBP as DH. Much better slugging as CF. Much better walk rate as DH. 

I think Buxton's in a week long slump. He was hitting over .300 a week ago. Think people are getting way too caught up in a small sample size. He has 1 hit in his last 6 games. No good at all. He had 9 in his first 6 games. Not sustainable at all. Buxton is just a streaky hitter.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

We have lost 8 games:

Dylan Cease - Alcantara/Luzardo - Chris Sale - D. Cole………5 of our losses are to pitchers that, when pitching well, have top 10-15 talent in all of baseball. These 5 guys gave up 6 total runs to Twins over those 5 losses. Sometimes good pitching beats anybody’s hitting!

In 19 games we have scored 9 runs, 10 runs, & 11 runs twice. We have capability.

Need our starting 1B & starting 2B in the line-up. Period. We’ve had some nice contributions from some of the guys brought in to be platoon players. Also, our everyday guys like Miranda - Correa - Buxton - Gordon - Kepler all need to be better - agreed.

Conversely, what good, or even pretty good starter has this offense performed well against? Garcia, maybe, and he's had a rough start to the year until his most recent outing. 

They've finished with 2 runs or less 7x in those 19 games, and they've needed a free runner + extra innings another 2x to clear that low bar. They seem much more capable of looking helpless than knocking around opposing pitching. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Byron Buxton went 6 for 13 to start the season. That's a .462 average. He was hitting .302 after 11 games. Jose Miranda played a ton all spring, and he started 2 for 11 and was hitting .182 after 11 games. So which one was "ready when the regular season starts?" The guy who didn't play as much as people wanted, or the guy who played a lot?

You are right, Miranda did play a ton all spring—through an injury no less.

It’s a case of ‘Load management for me, none for thee’

So you have Buxton, who they are giving a ton of rest to, managing his load, in order to keep him healthy and at his peak performance for the long season. 

Meanwhile, you have Miranda, who played all spring as you said, and has appeared in every regular season game and almost always in the field for all nine innings. What about load managing for Miranda so his performance doesn’t suffer? 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You are right, Miranda did play a ton all spring—through an injury no less.

It’s a case of ‘Load management for me, none for thee’

So you have Buxton, who they are giving a ton of rest to, managing his load, in order to keep him healthy and at his peak performance for the long season. 

Meanwhile, you have Miranda, who played all spring as you said, and has appeared in every regular season game and almost always in the field for all nine innings. What about load managing for Miranda so his performance doesn’t suffer? 

Player A games played since 2018 by season: 131, 119, 2020 ignored, 127, 125
Player B games played since 2018 by season: 28, 87, 2020 ignored, 61, 92

1 of those is Miranda, 1 of them is Buxton. Think you can guess which one is which? I can't imagine why they'd treat them differently...

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Conversely, what good, or even pretty good starter has this offense performed well against? Garcia, maybe, and he's had a rough start to the year until his most recent outing. 

They've finished with 2 runs or less 7x in those 19 games, and they've needed a free runner + extra innings another 2x to clear that low bar. They seem much more capable of looking helpless than knocking around opposing pitching. 

Reviewing your 7X at 2 runs or less comment:

The Royals don’t have good pitchers - we had back to back 2-0 wins in the first series of the season. “Pitchers are ahead in April….” ?? or whatever - maybe we suck?

The other 5x we got two runs or less are against the 5 pitching stars we’ve faced that I mentioned originally…..Alcantara - Luzardo - Cease - Cole - Sale. It’s like facing Pablo López with better stuff 5 times out of 19 games. No reason to think we should do anything but struggle against these guys! There is no refuting this - all 5 of them are excellent.

Let’s wait til May 15 before we condemn our offense.

Houston’s starters - 3 game series with them -aren’t bad. Garcia - Brown - ??……Brown was very sharp as well!

[Larry Janisewski]

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

How will swapping in Kiriloffs bat add to the offense?  How do we know that?  The past two seasons he has played very little and what he has shown is just average or below.  I question their depth.  Granted it's better than last year but much of their depth is unproven, injured, and over- hyped.  Sick of watching Buxton doing his Sano look a like imitation at the plate.  He's flailing at the plate, AGAIN and has become an automatic out.  Maybe his stats will improve on this homestand facing Nationals and Royals.  Their offense was poor last year and we shouldn't be surprised at it's lack of production this year.  But somehow they win once in a while although just a little under .500 since starting the season 4-0.  Thank goodness for a very poor central division.  Still love the Twins.  10 game homestand against Nationals, Yankees, and Royals.  The goal must be to go at least 7-3.  Yes the Yankees are tough but the Nationals and Royals are cellar dwellers.  Go Twins.

Agree 100% about the lack of hitting last year and this year. Maybe its time to change hitting coaches???

And if scoring runs is a problem maybe Twins should be putting more pressure on the other team by running more. With the enlarged bases and limiting pitcher throws to 1st base, stealing should be more of a weapon. As of April 19, the Twins have 1 stolen base as a team! That's pathetic. 194 individual players have at least 1 stolen base----the  Twins have 1 as a team.

[jkcarew]

It's a simple concept.

If Buxton plays center field, you replace Taylor's bat in the lineup with a DH that can hit. You take the weakest batter out of the order and replace him with a good...or at least dangerous, bat.

And yes, this 100% WILL help the offense over weeks/months. No, it won't 'FIX' the offense.

Of course, if you think Taylor's recent 'hot' streak is sustainable...then, disagree.

Meanwhile, you HAVE to believe Buxton will warm up. If you don't, then he shouldn't be playing at all.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Byron Buxton went 6 for 13 to start the season. That's a .462 average. He was hitting .302 after 11 games. Jose Miranda played a ton all spring, and he started 2 for 11 and was hitting .182 after 11 games. So which one was "ready when the regular season starts?" The guy who didn't play as much as people wanted, or the guy who played a lot?

6 for 13 was what? 3 games? Against KC pitching. Then the downward slide began as you even prove by saying his average dropped from .462 to .302 and the downward slide hasn't stopped. And Miranda missed games due to a sore shoulder. He didn't play a ton like you think, although I will agree he played more than Buck. Maybe they both didn't play enough. My point still stands.

[miller761]

Way too early to be excited about any success(pitching and being 11-8). Also way too early to dwell on how poor the hitting and run scoring are. Check back at the end of May and you will be able to draw your conclusions on a bigger sample size. Something tells me our pitching won't be as good as it looks now and our hitting will be better(warm weather and addition of Polanco to lineup). Right now enjoy being in first place with 10 days to go in our most diffcult month schedule wise.