Michael A Taylor for MVP?

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Are we talking about Taylor being the team MVP, or the American League MVP? Looking at his past batting lines, I really don’t think he is capable of that level of play. Nothing against Taylor, he seems like a nice guy. The front office, beat writers, and Twins Daily writers I guess are seeing something that I am not seeing. I am looking forward to this.

It's not a very serious title, more reflective of my liking for Taylor. I think the general consensus is he'll be a slightly below average hitter with elite defense in CF, which is fine for a 9 hitter. 

I would predict something along the lines of a .250/.300/.400 with 15 home runs and 2 war or so 

2 hours ago, John Belinski said:

If Taylor is the Twins MVP then the Twins are really in trouble. Talk about Gordon getting more playing time really shows how bad the Twins are since he isn't even hitting .100. Buxton and Correa have really been a disappointment this year.  Time after time we see players getting big contracts and then not producing so hope they start earning their big paychecks or the Twins are not going to be in the playoffs again this year.

April is Correa's lowest monthly total in wRC+ and second lowest in OPS and I'm not worried about Buxton. Considering the Twins have given out maybe 2-3 big contracts in team history I don't think there are any trends there. 

Seems too early to react to any offensive struggles from any individual player still. If the offense is still like this at the end of May then we can start making determinations imo. 

4 hours ago, miracleb said:

Taylor has had the start of his life and his OPS is below .700.   If he continues to get this many at bats, the Twins will struggle to be a contender.

Maybe, but also pretty much every hitter in the top 5 has underperformed this season, I doubt they hit this way all year. Taylor can be an everyday centerfielder for a good team if his career averages hold. 

On 4/22/2023 at 12:23 PM, ashbury said:

A .700 OPS would be better than he's achieved in any season since 2017.  Starry-eyed optimist, you. 

His career OPS is .680, if he can keep his OBP around .300 I don't think it's that unreasonable? 

On 4/24/2023 at 12:04 PM, ashbury said:

That's where averages can sometimes fool you.  He's got one of those weird careers where all but one of his seasons (until this year) have been below his career average.  2017's OPS of .806 looks like a blip now. On the other hand all his other seasons have been remarkably consistent, in the .638-.676 range. 

Now, .020 is not very much variation so .700 isn't "unreasonable".  Players oscillate by that much, routinely.  I'm just pointing out the historical record. The last time he was above .700, he was 26 years old.  He's 32 now.  That's a lot of track record to overcome, by this point.

And .700 really isn't very good, no matter how stellar the defense is, so if that's what he achieves, my main view on him doesn't change anyway.  "M.A.T. can't OPS .700" isn't some hill I would want to die on, because it doesn't matter if he does it.  He's a desirable backup and he will have his moments over the course of a season.

I think MAT at a .700 OPS is absolutely a starting caliber player, that's our point of disagreement. He is every bit as good defensively as Buxton, or Kiermaier, or any center fielder you want to throw out there in the last 10 years and if the offense can stay above water, which given he's not in Kauffman anymore it probably can, I see Taylor as a 2-3 war player. 

49 minutes ago, ashbury said:

For a last place team?  Definitely.  His 2020-22 more or less bore that out.  Maybe for a .500 team, as his ceiling, if other parts of the team are clicking.

He was very little factor in the Nationals' World Series team, 2019, their last good season.  In 2017 the Nationals also had a very strong year with 97 wins - that coincided with Taylor's career year to date at the plate, and I'll submit that that looks like no coincidence at all.

And I feel it necessary to repeat that, by saying any of this, I'm not trashing him as a player, and especially not in a backup role. I'm happy he's on the team and happy that he's pulling his weight during Buxton's absence from CF.  He absolutely gets credit for 2017, it's just that it was a long time ago. Also if his OPS is trending back up to above-.800 like that one magical year, my opinion changes.  He's at .743 at this writing and that is NOT the .700 ceiling I was discussing.  Baseball is a game of remarkable balance and equilibrium and synergies - above .800 is a lot different than below .700, and MAT has literally never finished a season in-between those two numbers, so it's uncharted territory for him.  He's had good months through the years - can he keep it up?

We saw with Andrelton Simmons that saying "defense is key up the middle and any offense is icing on the cake" just leads to misery. 

Our point of disagreement is about team aspirations, not simply getting by (team, or player) in the majors.

 

I admit I'm definitely optimistic about Taylor's offensive production so far this year, but I think there is enough evidence it's somewhat sustainable, but I get the hesitancy about it.  

Simmons' level on offense when he was a Twin is a different conversation, sub .600 OPS doesn't cut it on any team at any level of contention, but Taylor isn't in that tier of production. However the years Simmons was a league average hitter he was pushing 5-6 wins. 

I think Taylor as an everyday player doesn't prevent you from being a contender. We've seen multiple WS Champs and perennial contenders with weak 8-9 hitters, worse than Taylor. The difference to me is the top 5-6 bats in the lineup, can Larnach, Kirilloff, and Miranda produce like Kyle Tucker or Will Smith? And is that a Management issue that they didn't provide the support at the top of the lineup to make a run in the postseason? Or maybe they did and they were correct to bet on their young guys?