Michael A Taylor for MVP?

[Ted Wiedmann]

We expected the Twins' centerfielder to lead the team in home runs. Just not THIS centerfielder. 

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

In a lineup with several disappointing performances in 2023, the Twins have a bright spot in their ninth hitter. 

The Twins' starting nine that has left much to be desired, but fans disappointment mostly surrounds the expected top hitters underperforming. The team have been pleasantly surprised with the production from both catchers, Donovan Solano, and the focus of this piece, Michael A. Taylor . Acquired in a division trade from the Royals over the off-season, Taylor was expected to log centerfield innings, serve as a right-handed bat versus left-handed pitching, and fill in adequately for Byron Buxton in the event he gets injured.  

Currently second on the team in fWAR and fifth in wRC+, Taylor has been instrumental in the Twins' hot start to the season. In addition to filling his anticipated role, Taylor has already had several memorable moments as a Twin. From the walk-off bunt against the White Sox to his diving catch and the two home run game in Yankee Stadium, Taylor is quickly cementing himself as not just an insurance policy, but as a critical everyday player for the AL Central leaders. 

While it's unlikely Taylor will continue to lead the team in home runs, his current power streak is not too out of character. Taylor's .464 SLG would be the second-highest of his career, as he posted a .486 SLG in 2017 with 19 home runs and a .424 SLG in 2020. In the past, he has shown the ability to be a power threat at the bottom of the lineup. It's a safe bet that playing most of his games in Kauffman Stadium over the last two years suppressed his power numbers. 

Unfortunately for Taylor, this power might have come with a tradeoff. Taylor has been a wild swinger this year, with a whopping 54.8% swing rate, 7.7% higher than the league average. He owns a 36.8% K% and has taken one walk in 2023. I boldly predict both numbers to regress throughout the season. His career BB% is 6.7%, a touch below league average, but expect strikeouts from him, as his career 29.5% K% is well above league average. 

Whether pitchers are eager to challenge him with the risk of putting him on base for Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton or he is just leaning further into what he has become as a player, Taylor's zone-swing% is 9.1% higher than the league average and almost 4% higher than his career marks. His chase% is 5.6% higher than the league average and 3.8% higher than his career average. If Taylor ends up being a below-average hitter, which he is expected to do, this is likely a big reason. 

Less likely to change is Taylor's defensive impact. His defense has been as advertised, a crucial part of the Twins' new identity. According to SIS, the Twins are the best team in baseball at turning fly balls and line drives into outs. Taylor currently ranks sixth in defensive runs saved among center fielders on Fangraphs and is 84th percentile in outs above average on Baseball Savant. Early-season defense metrics are quite unstable due to sample size, but given his track record, these confirm what past data has shown throughout his career.  

The Twins had a goal in the off-season to find players capable of filling their roles, and Michael A. Taylor is an example of that. His defense is about as close to Buxton's as you will find, and he's showing flashes of power on offense that is not unprecedented but also not necessarily anticipated. Taylor fits in quite well with his new team and may be well on his way to exceeding expectations and finding a nice payday in 2024. 

Correction: This story was originally pubished under John Bonnes' byline, when it was actually written by Ted Weiman. John edited and entered the story into the system and messed up putting in the actual author. Unfortunately, we can't change that field once it's published, so the original story needed to be deleted and that also means five comments were deleted with it. Twins Daily (and John Bonnes) sincerely apologize for our mistake. 

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[ashbury]

I liked the acquisition of MAT as a good backup CF.  And I'm happy with his start to the season, as detailed here.  But if he winds up being the team's MVP of 2023, something will have gone very, very wrong.

[JD-TWINS]

Am assuming with Polanco back & then Farmer healed up, we will start seeing Gordon in CF regularly v. RH pitching.

Taylor is exactly what you described, He’s a platoon CF that would play v. RH pitching and in a health emergency v. RH pitching (what he has been doing). He’s played above his norm at the plate………same description for Solano at 1B.

These 2 & Farmer have been pushed into regular duty after signing to play 35-50% of the time.

Hopefully, Taylor will maintain his effectiveness as his playing time regresses over the next few weeks. He’s been a big help!

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Iron Man, for sure.  First day out of the lineup today.

[miracleb]

Taylor has had the start of his life and his OPS is below .700.   If he continues to get this many at bats, the Twins will struggle to be a contender.

[John Belinski]

If Taylor is the Twins MVP then the Twins are really in trouble. Talk about Gordon getting more playing time really shows how bad the Twins are since he isn't even hitting .100. Buxton and Correa have really been a disappointment this year.  Time after time we see players getting big contracts and then not producing so hope they start earning their big paychecks or the Twins are not going to be in the playoffs again this year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Are we talking about Taylor being the team MVP, or the American League MVP? Looking at his past batting lines, I really don’t think he is capable of that level of play. Nothing against Taylor, he seems like a nice guy. The front office, beat writers, and Twins Daily writers I guess are seeing something that I am not seeing. I am looking forward to this.

[Reptevia]

He’s the starting CF for a reason. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Are we talking about Taylor being the team MVP, or the American League MVP? Looking at his past batting lines, I really don’t think he is capable of that level of play. Nothing against Taylor, he seems like a nice guy. The front office, beat writers, and Twins Daily writers I guess are seeing something that I am not seeing. I am looking forward to this.

It's not a very serious title, more reflective of my liking for Taylor. I think the general consensus is he'll be a slightly below average hitter with elite defense in CF, which is fine for a 9 hitter. 

I would predict something along the lines of a .250/.300/.400 with 15 home runs and 2 war or so 

[Ted Wiedmann]

2 hours ago, John Belinski said:

If Taylor is the Twins MVP then the Twins are really in trouble. Talk about Gordon getting more playing time really shows how bad the Twins are since he isn't even hitting .100. Buxton and Correa have really been a disappointment this year.  Time after time we see players getting big contracts and then not producing so hope they start earning their big paychecks or the Twins are not going to be in the playoffs again this year.

April is Correa's lowest monthly total in wRC+ and second lowest in OPS and I'm not worried about Buxton. Considering the Twins have given out maybe 2-3 big contracts in team history I don't think there are any trends there. 

Seems too early to react to any offensive struggles from any individual player still. If the offense is still like this at the end of May then we can start making determinations imo. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

4 hours ago, miracleb said:

Taylor has had the start of his life and his OPS is below .700.   If he continues to get this many at bats, the Twins will struggle to be a contender.

Maybe, but also pretty much every hitter in the top 5 has underperformed this season, I doubt they hit this way all year. Taylor can be an everyday centerfielder for a good team if his career averages hold. 

[miracleb]

Taylor CAN'T be an everyday centerfielder for a contending team....based on his career averages!  Especially when you have Buxton.

[John Belinski]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Taylor CAN'T be an everyday centerfielder for a contending team....based on his career averages!  Especially when you have Buxton.

Look at Buxton's batting average. The Twins will never be a contending team with Rocco as manager. He has No clue on how to handle pitchers, doesn't have his batters move runners over, has losing record in 1 run games and losing record in extra inning games. Hard to watch the Twins play with him as manager.

[Craig Arko]

Right now it looks like Gallo is trying to usurp the throne.

[ashbury]

23 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

I would predict something along the lines of a .250/.300/.400 with 15 home runs and 2 war or so 

A .700 OPS would be better than he's achieved in any season since 2017.  Starry-eyed optimist, you. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

On 4/22/2023 at 12:23 PM, ashbury said:

A .700 OPS would be better than he's achieved in any season since 2017.  Starry-eyed optimist, you. 

His career OPS is .680, if he can keep his OBP around .300 I don't think it's that unreasonable? 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

His career OPS is .680, if he can keep his OBP around .300 I don't think it's that unreasonable? 

That's where averages can sometimes fool you.  He's got one of those weird careers where all but one of his seasons (until this year) have been below his career average.  2017's OPS of .806 looks like a blip now. On the other hand all his other seasons have been remarkably consistent, in the .638-.676 range. 

Now, .020 is not very much variation so .700 isn't "unreasonable".  Players oscillate by that much, routinely.  I'm just pointing out the historical record. The last time he was above .700, he was 26 years old.  He's 32 now.  That's a lot of track record to overcome, by this point.

And .700 really isn't very good, no matter how stellar the defense is, so if that's what he achieves, my main view on him doesn't change anyway.  "M.A.T. can't OPS .700" isn't some hill I would want to die on, because it doesn't matter if he does it.  He's a desirable backup and he will have his moments over the course of a season.

[Ted Wiedmann]

On 4/24/2023 at 12:04 PM, ashbury said:

That's where averages can sometimes fool you.  He's got one of those weird careers where all but one of his seasons (until this year) have been below his career average.  2017's OPS of .806 looks like a blip now. On the other hand all his other seasons have been remarkably consistent, in the .638-.676 range. 

Now, .020 is not very much variation so .700 isn't "unreasonable".  Players oscillate by that much, routinely.  I'm just pointing out the historical record. The last time he was above .700, he was 26 years old.  He's 32 now.  That's a lot of track record to overcome, by this point.

And .700 really isn't very good, no matter how stellar the defense is, so if that's what he achieves, my main view on him doesn't change anyway.  "M.A.T. can't OPS .700" isn't some hill I would want to die on, because it doesn't matter if he does it.  He's a desirable backup and he will have his moments over the course of a season.

I think MAT at a .700 OPS is absolutely a starting caliber player, that's our point of disagreement. He is every bit as good defensively as Buxton, or Kiermaier, or any center fielder you want to throw out there in the last 10 years and if the offense can stay above water, which given he's not in Kauffman anymore it probably can, I see Taylor as a 2-3 war player. 

[ashbury]

59 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

I think MAT at a .700 OPS is absolutely a starting caliber player

For a last place team?  Definitely.  His 2020-22 more or less bore that out.  Maybe for a .500 team, as his ceiling, if other parts of the team are clicking.

He was very little factor in the Nationals' World Series team, 2019, their last good season.  In 2017 the Nationals also had a very strong year with 97 wins - that coincided with Taylor's career year to date at the plate, and I'll submit that that looks like no coincidence at all.

And I feel it necessary to repeat that, by saying any of this, I'm not trashing him as a player, and especially not in a backup role. I'm happy he's on the team and happy that he's pulling his weight during Buxton's absence from CF.  He absolutely gets credit for 2017, it's just that it was a long time ago. Also if his OPS is trending back up to above-.800 like that one magical year, my opinion changes.  He's at .743 at this writing and that is NOT the .700 ceiling I was discussing.  Baseball is a game of remarkable balance and equilibrium and synergies - above .800 is a lot different than below .700, and MAT has literally never finished a season in-between those two numbers, so it's uncharted territory for him.  He's had good months through the years - can he keep it up?

We saw with Andrelton Simmons that saying "defense is key up the middle and any offense is icing on the cake" just leads to misery. 

Our point of disagreement is about team aspirations, not simply getting by (team, or player) in the majors.

 

[Ted Wiedmann]

49 minutes ago, ashbury said:

For a last place team?  Definitely.  His 2020-22 more or less bore that out.  Maybe for a .500 team, as his ceiling, if other parts of the team are clicking.

He was very little factor in the Nationals' World Series team, 2019, their last good season.  In 2017 the Nationals also had a very strong year with 97 wins - that coincided with Taylor's career year to date at the plate, and I'll submit that that looks like no coincidence at all.

And I feel it necessary to repeat that, by saying any of this, I'm not trashing him as a player, and especially not in a backup role. I'm happy he's on the team and happy that he's pulling his weight during Buxton's absence from CF.  He absolutely gets credit for 2017, it's just that it was a long time ago. Also if his OPS is trending back up to above-.800 like that one magical year, my opinion changes.  He's at .743 at this writing and that is NOT the .700 ceiling I was discussing.  Baseball is a game of remarkable balance and equilibrium and synergies - above .800 is a lot different than below .700, and MAT has literally never finished a season in-between those two numbers, so it's uncharted territory for him.  He's had good months through the years - can he keep it up?

We saw with Andrelton Simmons that saying "defense is key up the middle and any offense is icing on the cake" just leads to misery. 

Our point of disagreement is about team aspirations, not simply getting by (team, or player) in the majors.

 

I admit I'm definitely optimistic about Taylor's offensive production so far this year, but I think there is enough evidence it's somewhat sustainable, but I get the hesitancy about it.  

Simmons' level on offense when he was a Twin is a different conversation, sub .600 OPS doesn't cut it on any team at any level of contention, but Taylor isn't in that tier of production. However the years Simmons was a league average hitter he was pushing 5-6 wins. 

I think Taylor as an everyday player doesn't prevent you from being a contender. We've seen multiple WS Champs and perennial contenders with weak 8-9 hitters, worse than Taylor. The difference to me is the top 5-6 bats in the lineup, can Larnach, Kirilloff, and Miranda produce like Kyle Tucker or Will Smith? And is that a Management issue that they didn't provide the support at the top of the lineup to make a run in the postseason? Or maybe they did and they were correct to bet on their young guys?