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The Twins’ offense has been bad. There are no two ways about it. Per Baseball Reference, they rank 25th in team OPS and 24th in offensive WAR. They need to hit. Many fans are clamoring for Byron Buxton to be moved out of the DH slot and into centerfield so that another bat can be added to the order to replace Michael A. Taylor. However, this line of thinking doesn’t hold up practically or in theory.
At the onset, I want to acknowledge that the best lineup for these Twins features a healthy Buxton hitting in the middle of the order and patrolling centerfield. I hope to see it soon. However, it’s the least of the team’s offensive problems right now.
First, let’s dig into the practical reason—Taylor is hitting better than the alternatives. Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, Max Kepler, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Kyle Garlick, and Buxton all have a lower OPS+ than Taylor. Replacing him in the lineup with any of those options worsens the offense.
Of course, this issue shouldn’t be expected to continue. Talyor is hitting roughly how he did last year, about 15% better than his career average. Even if he maintains that level, the other bats should heat up and pass him by—right? Please tell me I’m right.
Therein lies the problem—the other bats. From a theoretical perspective, that’s the biggest issue with the offense. The players in bat-first positions have largely been disappointing.
The beauty of a player like Buxton is that he occupies a glove-first position in centerfield and an elite glove to boot, but he also has a big bat. The bat is so big that he can play the hitting-only position at DH and have the potential to be one of the best in the league at it.
Correa is in the same boat—great glove at a fielding-heavy position and a great bat. Even the tandem of Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers brings solid bats to a position where the bar is quite low. Centerfielders, shortstops, and catchers are paid to field. Hitting is gravy. The Twins are in a great position with good-to-elite fielders at all three positions with average-to-elite bats.
It provides them an immense advantage in roster construction. If the weakest offensive positions have some of their best hitters, filling in the rest of the lineup with good bats, an easier task, can make the lineup elite. But it’s not mandatory for success.
Since the 80s, Twins fans have watched the likes of Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, Buxton, and even Denard Span roam centerfield. They were each good defenders who could handle the bat well enough to hit in the top half of the order. Not every centerfielder needs to do that, though.
A great lineup can have a Taylor at the bottom, so long as he’s an elite fielder—which Taylor is. The 2022 World Series champion Astros had catcher Martín Maldonado, a far worse hitter than Taylor. The 2021 Braves had catcher Travis d’Arnaud. It wasn’t their job to hit—they provided value in the field. Taylor can do that.
However, with a player like Taylor in the field, it’s imperative that the positions lower on the defensive spectrum—namely the corners: first base, left field, right field, and third base—produce. It’s easier to find competent bats at those positions, which are much less fielding-intensive. C.J. Cron, for example, was picked up off waivers in 2019, was paid a painless $4.8 million, played well until a thumb injury, and then was released.
So far, the Twins have yet to get much help from their bat-first positions. Buxton himself hasn’t hit well, but he is streaky, and no one expects this funk to last forever. In contrast, everyone asked to fill a corner spot has some question mark attached to them, and production has been low.
Joey Gallo and Kepler need bounce-back years. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach must return from two years of injury and solidify themselves. Miranda looked good in 2022—but had a shaky start and end—and sophomore slumps are always valid concerns. Gordon had a breakout year in 2022, but he needs to prove it’s legit. Donovan Solano is 35. Wallner and Edouard Julien are unproven rookies.
Thus far, there have been few positive answers to those question marks. As a team, the Twins have had solid production from their first basemen (Solano, Gallo, Miranda), ranking 6th in OPS at .943. The other three bat-first positions have been markedly poorer.
Third basemen (Miranda, Castro) rank 27th at .495, left fielders (Larnach, Gordon, Castro, Garlick) rank 28th at .517, and right fielders (Larnach, Kepler, Wallner, Garlick, Gallo) rank 21st at .655. It’s abysmal.
Individually, there are some bright spots. Gallo has been otherworldly, though injured. Julien is off to a hot start. Solano has been a welcome addition, though it’s difficult to count on him consistently providing first-base-production against righties. Larnach got off to a hot start but has cooled down a bit. The other corner options have been below-average, at very best, at positions that cannot be below average.
This problem may eventually work itself out. With such a large pool of potential bats, it may take time to identify which players can round out the roster built around Buxton and Correa. However, until then, the team isn’t hurting itself, keeping Buxton out of centerfield. When the alternative to Buxton as a DH and Taylor as a centerfielder is Buxton in center and Nick Gordon (-33 OPS+) at DH, there’s no rush to get Buxton into the field.
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