Here Comes Trouble

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins opened their season with a winning road trip against relatively unimposing teams. Now the schedule is about to get a whole lot harder. Are they ready for the challenge?

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are off to a nice start. They opened up with back-to-back shutouts on the road, on the way to a season-opening sweep and winning road trip. Sure, they fell to earth with a pair of low-scoring losses on the back end, but there's no shame in struggling against premier pitching in early April, as your hitters find their grooves.

At least, that's the charitable take. 

The less charitable take is that the Twins took care of business against two sub-par teams, but let some opportunities slip away due to an underwhelming offense with some carryover sleepiness from last season.

The 2022 Twins, despite ranking 11th among MLB teams in OPS, were 17th in runs scored, thanks to a warped distribution: While apt to blow up occasionally, they scored two or fewer in nearly one-third (32%) of their games. 

Now, the 2023 Twins have opened up by scoring two or fewer in four of their first six.

Again, it's an easy thing to downplay and excuse, all things considered. But this Minnesota lineup was a question mark coming in, especially down multiple key pieces out of the gate. And while they've still managed a winning record thus far, the difficulty level is about to rise immensely

Starting with Friday's home opener, the Twins will play 10 of their next 19 games against the Astros and Yankees. There's also a three-game homestand against a key division rival, the Chicago White Sox, mixed in there. 

It's proving time, to say the least. Minnesota's pitching stuff looks up to the challenge, but we shouldn't expect the same kind of success as the they saw against the Royals and Marlins. In order to come out of this early-season gauntlet in a reasonably good place, the Twins are going to need to get their offense going.

Some key questions:

• Can the right-handed bats start producing some power? The Twins have hit six home runs so far, with lefty hitters (Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler) accounting for all but one. Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, and Carlos Correa have yet to go yard. The Twins could use some punch from this group.
• What's up with Kepler? He started his season 0-for-13, broke out on Monday with two hits including a homer ... then tweaked his knee running to first, and hasn't played since. It sounds like he should return to the lineup soon, but how soon, and can he recapture the momentum that was starting to finally materialize? Kepler might not seem like a crucial part of the offense but as we've seen, the byproduct of him not playing is that Willi Castro does.
• When will Jorge Polanco return? Or Alex Kirilloff, for that matter, but Polanco seems significantly closer. On Thursday night, he opens an official rehab stint at Class-A Ft. Myers, where he's batting second and starting at second base. It's plausible he could return to the fold during this 19-game stretch. Getting back Polanco at something resembling full strength would be a game-changer for this offense, particularly with some high-caliber opposing pitchers about to come through.

Yes, the Twins are off a nice start, but fans know better by now than to let that get them too confident. In 2021, the team started 5-2 before the bottom fell out. Last year they also looked promising, and things noticeably started to take a turn when they welcomed (drumroll) the Astros into town for a three-game set in May.

It was there that the Twins, who entered the series seven games above .500 at 18-11, started to really show their flaws against superior competition. Already mired by injuries, they were swept and outscored 21-3 in front of the home fans. 

Justin Verlander nearly no-hit their slump-prone offense. (Not to be confused with the other time he almost no-hit them last year.) The acrobatic act that helped Chris Archer jump out to a 3.26 ERA in his first five starts gave way, as the Astros pummeled him for five runs in three innings. Around this time we also learned that Chris Paddack, who came out of a start in the previous series with elbow soreness, would undergo Tommy John surgery.

Beyond that disastrous series, most Twins fans have plenty of negative associations with the Astros, who most recently swept Minnesota out of the playoffs and have recently made a habit of clobbering the hometown nine while dynastically dominating the American League. The Yankees? Well, nothing further needs to be said on that front.

Showdowns with these two opponents have produced some of the most devastating moments and ominous turning points for Twins teams over the past couple decades, and both clubs are looking very strong as expected this season.

Can the Twins break one of their most frustrating patterns and hang in there against these giants of the AL, showing they belong in the conversation rather than customarily shrinking in the moment? That's the kind of statement that would really energize and engage an understandably skeptical fan base. It will require the Twins to clean up some of the flaws that have been on display against mediocre opponents in the first week, while continuing to throw the living hell out of the ball. 

Yeah, it's been a nice start. Now the real work begins.

View full article

[Parfigliano]

Didnt know about 2 or fewer runs in 32% of games.  Wish I still didnt.

[ashbury]

Looking forward to getting to know our team better with how these games go.

[Doctor Gast]

HOU & NYY haven't really been tearing it up lately either, maybe this is a good time to catch them in a low point. Polanco really looks mean, can't wait to get him back.

[FlyingFinn]

Anyone surprised that Josh Donaldson was pulled from the Yankees lineup due to hamstring tightness.

[Rik19753]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

HOU & NYY haven't really been tearing it up lately either, maybe this is a good time to catch them in a low point.

Very true, especially the Astros. With Altuve and Brantley out, the lineup doesn't seem nearly as scary as it always does. The top 5 of Pena, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez and Abreu is menacing, but after that it reminds me of the Twins lineups from September of last year. Not to mention we are going to miss their 2 best starters, Valdez and Javier. I haven't felt this optimistic about playing the Astros in years.

[Vanimal46]

I’ve been withholding judgment on this team until I see them against the better teams like Houston and NYY. We shall see. I don’t have the warm and fuzzies about the Twins. Especially when it comes to the offense. 

[jkcarew]

I do think maybe catching these two at a good time. 
 

On the other hand, I think the offensive issues are very real.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Well said Nick. Cross your fingers. If the Twins pitchers can keep up what they started against KC and Miami, and I think they can, then we'll be OK.

[Shaitan]

Based on the headline, it seems you encourage the negativity.

[weitz41]

It could also be said that if they do well in the next 19 games (+.500) it could be a big confidence boost for the team.

[stringer bell]

“Here Comes Opportunity”

[Karbo]

I don't understand playing Castro instead of Farmer. Why not put Gordon in left and Farmer at 2nd? Sure, neither one is tearing the cover off, but the potential is higher IMO.

[CRF]

It's early, but we absolutely have to figure out a way to hang with these top tier teams. At least be competitive and stay around .500 with them. We can't let them come in here and kick our butts, and we have to be able to go to their yard and do some kicking ourselves. Otherwise...we aren't going anywhere. 

[Doctor Wu]

2 minutes ago, CRF said:

It's early, but we absolutely have to figure out a way to hang with these top tier teams. At least be competitive and stay around .500 with them. We can't let them come in here and kick our butts, and we have to be able to go to their yard and do some kicking ourselves. Otherwise...we aren't going anywhere. 

Yes indeed, Beating teams like the Royals and Marlins is encouraging, but if we can't stick it to the likes of the Astros and Yankees we ain't going anywhere this year. 

[Riverbrian]

When bad teams win 4 out of 10 games and they do. Unimposing teams are not as unimposing as we tend to treat them. 

When good teams win 6 out of 10 games and they do. Imposing teams are not as imposing as we tend to make them out. 

I encourage everyone to do the math and think about it. 

Until then... Here come the ole' measuring stick Astros articles and comments which of course follow the dismissing of a sweep against the lowly Royals articles and comments. 

Teams best strap it on every day. These so called bad teams are filled with professionals who luck out wins 4 out of 10 times.

These so called imposing teams like the Astros apparently are not imposing all the time. They are currently 3-4, 18th in hitting (OPS) and 12th in pitching (ERA). Someone beats them 4 out of 10 times. 

[Mark G]

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Didnt know about 2 or fewer runs in 32% of games.  Wish I still didnt.

And they scored 3 or less (including this 32% of course) in 48% of their games last year.  

I wish I had forgotten that, too.  

[mikelink45]

Thank you for a realistic perspective.   

[MABB1959]

Buxton was on a streak with the team.  He was given a day off, the Twins lost and seems now Buxton is cooling off.  Positives are Larnach and Castro.  Scary start Solano, Gallow, Taylor.  Super scary Miranda and Farmer.  Not sure what to say about Correa I guess you could call it a slow start but we can't afford for him to not hit.

[Peter]

Tough stretch of games! Need to win series not every game. 4-2 I’ll take 7-6/8-5 which gives us 11-9/12-8 after 20 games. Let’s see what happens. Excited to see how small town twins play against the big city teams Astros/Yankees/white sox and Red Sox. 

[twinfan]

To me, last year fell apart in early August when the Guardians got hot and we got tired or ???. We could have been closer in the division race but weren't going to win without beating Cleveland who killed us down the stretch.

[chpettit19]

Make it through April a game or 3 above .500 and you're doing just fine. Actually, be a game or 2 above .500 in every month and you're doing just fine. Baseball is 6 months long. 2 games above .500 each month means you're 12 games above .500 at the end of the year. 93 wins gets you into the playoffs every year.

If the Twins can take 5 of 7 from the Nats and Royals later in the month they're at 9 wins. If they can end the month 16-13 they're in great shape. That means they need to go (assuming the 5-2 record against Nats and Royals) 7-9 against the Astros, Yanks, and both Sox. Even 6-10 against those guys leaves them above .500 for the month and in fine shape. 7-9 should be more than doable. Shoot, 8-8 should be more than doable. Just have to play .500ish ball against the big boys.

[stringer bell]

It seems to me that the Twins are playing the White Sox, Astros and Yankees at the right time. Houston has struggled so far, the Yankees have a bunch of guys on the IL and the White Sox pitching staff is close to in shell shock. 

[wabene]

So far so freaking good! 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 4/7/2023 at 6:50 AM, stringer bell said:

“Here Comes Opportunity”

Outstanding quote Stringer. 

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Outstanding quote Stringer. 

Thanks!

 

On 4/7/2023 at 7:13 AM, Riverbrian said:

When bad teams win 4 out of 10 games and they do. Unimposing teams are not as unimposing as we tend to treat them. 

When good teams win 6 out of 10 games and they do. Imposing teams are not as imposing as we tend to make them out. 

I encourage everyone to do the math and think about it. 

Until then... Here come the ole' measuring stick Astros articles and comments which of course follow the dismissing of a sweep against the lowly Royals articles and comments. 

Teams best strap it on every day. These so called bad teams are filled with professionals who luck out wins 4 out of 10 times.

These so called imposing teams like the Astros apparently are not imposing all the time. They are currently 3-4, 18th in hitting (OPS) and 12th in pitching (ERA). Someone beats them 4 out of 10 times. 

Good stuff RB! Here is how I see it: The Astros and Yankees are good teams and probably will win more than 90 games, most likely somewhere around that 60% mark. During the season, they'll struggle sometimes and they'll play very well sometimes. Right now, neither team is playing that well. On Opening Day, the Yankees had three projected starting pitchers and nine total players on IL. They'll probably add JD today. The Astros seem to be in a post-championship funk. Their pitching in particular has allowed more hits than innings pitched, a marked departure from last year. It would appear to me that now is an ideal time to play both teams. Winning 40% of the games against New York and Houston should be the floor!

The Twins' pitching can't and won't continue at the level they've started, but this is a good group. Except for Duran, there isn't one essential arm that isn't largely replaceable. I would like to see the Twins more than hold their own for the rest of the month and I think they will.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Good stuff RB! Here is how I see it: The Astros and Yankees are good teams and probably will win more than 90 games, most likely somewhere around that 60% mark. During the season, they'll struggle sometimes and they'll play very well sometimes. Right now, neither team is playing that well. On Opening Day, the Yankees had three projected starting pitchers and nine total players on IL. They'll probably add JD today. The Astros seem to be in a post-championship funk. Their pitching in particular has allowed more hits than innings pitched, a marked departure from last year. It would appear to me that now is an ideal time to play both teams. Winning 40% of the games against New York and Houston should be the floor!

The Twins' pitching can't and won't continue at the level they've started, but this is a good group. Except for Duran, there isn't one essential arm that isn't largely replaceable. I would like to see the Twins more than hold their own for the rest of the month and I think they will.

Timing is everything. If you catch the A's at the wrong time they will bite you. Every once in awhile you'll need a Kyle Farmer or Luis Rivas to push one through when the time is right. 

Looking at the long haul this year. The Astros got good pitching depth and I think the pitching will get them the 90 wins you are saying they should get... but... on the offensive side you can see what happens when Altuve and Brantley are on the D.L. leaving them with Jake Cave... umm sorry... I mean Mauricio Dubon and David Hensley carrying water. The Twins may not have the equivalent of Alvarez, Tucker and Bregman but they are deeper in my opinion and you still got to put 9 guys in the lineup. 

The Yankees are deeeeep. I would not bet against them. They should be in the ball park at the end of the year. Probably gonna face the Twins in the playoffs again. 😉